Develops regression trees for estimating cumulative incidence curves in competing risks.
problem Estimating cumulative incidence functions in competing risks settings.
method Uses augmented estimators of the Brier score risk to build and prune regression trees.
result Demonstrates the utility of the proposed methods through simulation studies and real data.
This paper addresses the problem of estimating, in the presence of random censoring as well as competing risks, the extreme value index of the (sub)-distribution function associated to one particular cause, in the heavy-tail case. Asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator (which has the form of an Aalen-Johansen i…
Model predicts traffic speed using urban incidents.
problem Accurately predicting traffic speed in urban areas.
method Deep Incident-Aware Graph Convolutional Network (DIGC-Net).
result Model outperforms competing benchmarks in traffic speed prediction.
Model predicts traffic incident duration and identifies key features.
problem Predict traffic incident duration and identify critical features.
method Multi-task learning framework with sparsity optimization and ADMM algorithm.
result Model predicts incident duration and identifies key features effectively.
We develop a novel algorithm to predict the occurrence of major abdominal surgery within 5 years following Crohn's disease diagnosis using a panel of 29 baseline covariates from the Swedish population registers. We model pseudo-observations based on the Aalen-Johansen estimator of the cause-specific cumulative incidenc…
Sparse incidence tensors can represent a variety of structured data. For example, we may represent attributed graphs using their node-node, node-edge, or edge-edge incidence matrices. In higher dimensions, incidence tensors can represent simplicial complexes and polytopes. In this paper, we formalize incidence tensors,…
This paper aims to optimize incident-specific cyber insurance design.
problem Complexity in determining optimal risk retention and transfer.
method Economic foundation for incident-specific cyber insurance with Pareto optimality.
result Illustrates feasibility of designing incident-specific indemnities for both parties.
Crowdsourced data helps detect incidents faster, balancing accuracy and practicality.
problem Detecting incidents from crowdsourced data is challenging due to noise and uncertainty.
method CROME (Crowdsourced Multi-objective Event Detection) uses CNN and Pareto optimization.
result The approach outperforms existing methods in incident detection and practicality.
Predicting traffic incident duration is a major challenge for many traffic centres around the world. Most research studies focus on predicting the incident duration on motorways rather than arterial roads, due to a high network complexity and lack of data. In this paper we propose a bi-level framework for predicting th…
Study uses vehicle trajectory data to predict traffic incidents on highways.
problem Early detection of traffic incidents to reduce secondary crashes.
method Machine learning algorithms (Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boost, Artificial Neural Network) applied to vehicle trajectory data.
result Random Forest model performs best for incident prediction.
HYVINT generates hypergraphs with intensity-driven incidence formation and variational learning.
problem Challenges in generating hypergraphs with mechanistic interpretation and limited latent space.
method HYVINT uses intensity-driven incidence formation and a lower-bound variational estimator for latent representations.
result HYVINT achieves strong fidelity and novelty on synthetic and real-world hypergraphs.
Study shows data breaches cause significant financial losses for firms, especially in health sector.
problem Understanding the economic impact of cyber incidents on listed firms.
method Event study using abnormal returns over 2012-2022, adjusting for event-induced variance and residual cross-correlation.
result Data breaches cause significant financial losses for firms, especially in health sector.
Automated suggestions help train technicians diagnose incidents faster.
problem Manual and time-consuming incident diagnosis by train maintenance technicians.
method Developed and deployed a learning machine to suggest diagnostics to technicians.
result The model refines its accuracy through feedback from experts and uses feature engineering.
Proposes a privacy-preserving method for survival function estimation.
problem Privacy leakage in survival function estimation using sensitive data.
method Differential privacy framework applied to Kaplan-Meier estimator and related metrics.
result The method provides utility and strong privacy guarantees with real-world data.
Investigates proving geometric theorems over complex and real numbers using tilings.
problem Proving incidence theorems over C and R using the master theorem.
method Formalizes tiling proofs and introduces a hierarchy of theorems based on topological spaces.
result Identifies which theorems can or cannot be proved over C and R.
This paper proposes a real-time signal plan recommendation system for traffic incidents.
problem Limited effectiveness of traffic incident management due to late response and workload.
method Decomposes recommendation task into real-time traffic prediction and plan association, learning from historical data and metric learning.
result Precision score of 96.75% and recall of 87.5% on testing plan, with 22.5 minutes lead time ahead of Waze alerts.
We characterize the boundary at infinity of a complex hyperbolic space as a compact Ptolemy space that satisfies four incidence axioms.
The paper studies how points and lines can move while preserving incidences.
problem Understanding how point-line configurations can move while maintaining their geometric relationships.
method Developed a projective rigidity matrix to analyze the infinitesimal motions and dependencies of point-line configurations.
result The symmetry-adapted projective rigidity matrix provides a more detailed analysis of symmetric configurations and their motions.
Crimes emerge out of complex interactions of human behaviors and situations. Linkages between crime incidents are highly complex. Detecting crime linkage given a set of incidents is a highly challenging task since we only have limited information, including text descriptions, incident times, and locations. In practice,…
This project was motivated by a dialysis study in northern Taiwan. Dialysis patients, after shunt implantation, may experience two types ("acute" or "non-acute") of shunt thrombosis, both of which may recur. We formulate the problem under the framework of recurrent events data in the presence of competing risks. In par…
The paper explains the topological origin of the distinction between incidence theorems over division rings and fields.
problem Understanding the distinction between incidence theorems over division rings and fields.
method Extending the surface-graph approach to noncommutative settings, the paper analyzes the topological properties of graphs embedded on surfaces of different genera.
result Theorems associated with graphs on the sphere hold over any division ring, while those on surfaces of positive genus typically hold only if the ground ring is a field.
In a recent work of Ayaka Shimizu[5], she defined an operation named region crossing change on link diagrams, and showed that region crossing change is an unknotting operation for knot diagrams. In this paper, we prove that region crossing change on a 2-component link diagram is an unknotting operation if and only…
Enhances cyber risk assessment with entity-specific features.
problem Lack of high-quality public cyber incident data.
method Develops an InsurTech framework to enrich cyber incident data with entity-specific attributes and implements machine learning models.
result InsurTech features improve prediction robustness and provide customized risk profiles.
Study finds companies react negatively to material cybersecurity incident disclosures.
problem Understanding market reactions to cybersecurity incidents.
method Examined daily stock price movements of companies disclosing material cybersecurity incidents.
result Companies tend to experience negative price reactions after disclosing material cybersecurity incidents.
In this paper we continue the study of generic properties of the Novikov complex, began in the work "The incidence coefficients in the Novikov complex are generically rational functions" ( dg-ga/9603006). For a Morse map f:M→S1 there is a refined version of Novikov complex, defined over the Novikov completion of …
Bayesian-Deep Learning model predicts Covid-19 evolution in Spain.
problem Estimating the future evolution of Covid-19 in Spain.
method Combines DL techniques with Bayesian Poisson-Gamma model for counts.
result Allows prediction of future evolution and estimation of scenarios.
QTIP improves traffic prediction in sudden disruptions.
problem Traffic models fail during sudden disruptions.
method Simulation-based framework for real-time adaptation.
result QTIP improves traffic prediction in critical minutes of incidents.
Characterizes groups with specific boundary properties.
problem Groups with Schottky set boundaries.
method Study relatively hyperbolic group pairs with Schottky boundaries.
result Groups with boundaries where Schottky sets have 1 or 2 component incidence graphs.
Finite rigid sets found in surface curve complexes.
problem Finding rigid sets in surface curve complexes.
method Incidence-preserving maps to find rigid subcomplexes.
result Finite rigid subcomplexes identified in surface curve complexes.
Statistical models outperform mechanistic models in short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.
problem Comparing accuracy of mechanistic vs statistical models for short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.
method Empirical comparison of forecasts from mechanistic and statistical models using daily incidence data from six US states.
result Statistical models are at least as accurate as mechanistic models and better capture volatility.
We estimate treatment cost-savings from early cancer diagnosis. For breast, lung, prostate and colorectal cancers and melanoma, which account for more than 50% of new incidences projected in 2017, we combine published cancer treatment cost estimates by stage with incidence rates by stage at diagnosis. We extrapolate to…
Despite the robust structure of the Internet, it is still susceptible to disruptive routing updates that prevent network traffic from reaching its destination. Our research shows that BGP announcements that are associated with disruptive updates tend to occur in groups of relatively high frequency, followed by periods …
The paper extends group constructions to coset geometries, creating new ways to combine geometries.
problem Combining and gluing incidence geometries in a general framework.
method Extending classical group-theoretic constructions to coset geometries.
result Provides a general framework for combining or gluing incidence geometries.
Generative model for hypergraphs captures complex interactions without pairwise reductions.
problem Challenges in generating realistic hypergraphs with pairwise reductions.
method Structured stochastic diffusion on relaxed incidence matrices.
result Generative model preserves structure-aware noising and yields explicit Gaussian law.
Anomaly detection identifies unusual malaria transmission patterns in Ghana.
problem Identifying atypical malaria transmission patterns in Ghana's spatiotemporal surveillance data.
method Consensus-based anomaly detection framework applied to monthly malaria surveillance data.
result High-burden areas are not necessarily those with the most frequent anomalous transmission.
SurvSurf predicts first hitting times for intermittent events without monotonic violations.
problem Predicting first hitting times for intermittent events with monotonicity guarantees.
method Partially monotonic neural network for sequential events, incorporating unobserved events.
result SurvSurf outperforms existing models in MSE and IBS metrics.
A new Euclidean approach reveals the pentagram map's beauty.
problem Exploring the pentagram map through classical geometry.
method Introducing an alternative Euclidean approach.
result Demonstrates the pentagram map's elegance through classical geometry.
Enhanced Zika spread forecasting using topological data analysis.
problem Challenging prediction of Zika virus spread due to nonlinear spatio-temporal dependency and lack of historical records.
method Integrates topological data analysis, specifically persistent homology, into predictive machine learning models.
result Ensemble forecasting improves Zika spread predictions in Brazil.
Develops new methods to estimate treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.
problem Estimating treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.
method Censoring Unbiased Transformations (CUTs) for survival outcomes with and without competing risks.
result Consistent estimates of heterogeneous cumulative incidence effects and total effects using HTE learners.
Although aviation accidents are rare, safety incidents occur more frequently and require a careful analysis to detect and mitigate risks in a timely manner. Analyzing safety incidents using operational data and producing event-based explanations is invaluable to airline companies as well as to governing organizations s…
Paper disproves symmetry of stars at infinity in a specific graph.
problem Symmetry of stars at infinity in a specific graph.
method Defined incidence geometry of stars at infinity; provided an example.
result Relation of one boundary point being included in a star of another is not symmetric.
Compactifies strata of d-differentials in genus 0.
problem Compactify strata of d-differentials in genus 0.
method Specify an ideal sheaf and show isomorphism to blow-up of M0,n. result Incidence variety compactification is isomorphic to the blow-up of M0,n. Polynomial error equidistribution for SL2 groups.
problem Equidistribution of orbits in arithmetic quotients.
method Margulis function, incidence geometry, spectral gap.
result Polynomial error rate for equidistribution.
The intersection pattern of the translates of the limit set of a quasi-convex subgroup of a hyperbolic group can be coded in a natural incidence graph, which suggests connections with the splittings of the ambient group. A similar incidence graph exists for any subgroup of a group. We show that the disconnectedness of …
DNAMite creates interpretable, calibrated survival analysis models.
problem Limited interpretability in survival analysis models, especially for healthcare applications.
method Feature discretization and kernel smoothing in embedding module for flexible shape functions.
result DNAMite produces calibrated shape functions interpretable as contributions to cumulative incidence function.
DynForest R package predicts outcomes with time-dependent predictors.
problem Handling time-dependent predictors in random forest models.
method Random forests with time-dependent predictors summarized using flexible linear mixed models.
result DynForest can predict continuous, categorical, and survival outcomes.
The large volume of text in electronic healthcare records often remains underused due to a lack of methodologies to extract interpretable content. Here we present an unsupervised framework for the analysis of free text that combines text-embedding with paragraph vectors and graph-theoretical multiscale community detect…
AI model identifies chemical agents in MCI with high accuracy.
problem Identifying chemical agents in mass casualty incidents.
method Reverse engineered signs/symptoms, trained using ANN, BDT, and WISER.
result WISER outperformed ANN and BDT in identifying chemical agents.