arXiv research

Paper converts quantiles to cumulative distribution functions to simplify risk measures.

New method corrects bias in datasets using cumulative distribution functions.

We introduce a new type of graphical model called a "cumulative distribution network" (CDN), which expresses a joint cumulative distribution as a product of local functions. Each local function can be viewed as providing evidence about possible orderings, or rankings, of variables. Interestingly, we find that the condi…

We provide evidence that cumulative distributions of absolute normalized returns for the $100$ American companies with the highest market capitalization, uncover a critical behavior for different time scales $Δt$. Such cumulative distributions, in accordance with a variety of complex --and financial-- systems, can be m…

Exponential dispersion model is a useful framework in machine learning and statistics. Primarily, thanks to the additive structure of the model, it can be achieved without difficulty to estimate parameters including mean. However, tight conditions on cumulant function, such as analyticity, strict convexity, and steepne…

In this paper we study the volatility and its probability distribution function for the cumulative production based on the experience curve hypothesis. This work presents a generalization of the study of volatility in [1], which addressed the effects of normally distributed noise in the production process. Due to its w…

We propose a novel algebraic framework for treating probability distributions represented by their cumulants such as the mean and covariance matrix. As an example, we consider the unsupervised learning problem of finding the subspace on which several probability distributions agree. Instead of minimizing an objective f…

A new GAN loss function based on cumulant generating functions improves stability and robustness.

Motivated by the need for parametric families of rich and yet tractable distributions in financial mathematics, both in pricing and risk management settings, but also considering wider statistical applications, we investigate a novel technique for introducing skewness or kurtosis into a symmetric or other distribution.…

The paper analyzes worst-case distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy under partial information.

The paper evaluates functions of stable Lévy processes and their extrema efficiently.

New method estimates SW distance using CDFs for scalable data parallelism.

Conventional multiclass conditional probability estimation methods, such as Fisher's discriminate analysis and logistic regression, often require restrictive distributional model assumption. In this paper, a model-free estimation method is proposed to estimate multiclass conditional probability through a series of cond…

We study the rank distribution, the cumulative probability, and the probability density of returns of stock prices of listed firms traded in four stock markets. We find that the rank distribution and the cumulative probability of stock prices traded in are consistent approximately with the Zipf's law or a power law. It…

The study optimizes bounds for comparing training and population loss.

Forecast stock return distributions using neural networks.

We introduce a faithful representation of the heavy tail multivariate distribution of asset returns, as parsimonous as the Gaussian framework. Using calculation techniques of functional integration and Feynman diagrams borrowed from particle physics, we characterize precisely, through its cumulants of high order, the d…

Bayesian approach for inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity estimation.

ECOD detects outliers without parameters, fast and simple.

We investigate the problem of optimal dividend distribution for a company in the presence of regime shifts. We consider a company whose cumulative net revenues evolve as a Brownian motion with positive drift that is modulated by a finite state Markov chain, and model the discount rate as a deterministic function of the…

We investigate the distribution function and the cumulative probability for Korean household incomes, i.e., the current, labor, and property incomes. For our case, the distribution functions are consistent with a power law. It is also showed that the probability density of income growth rates almost has the form of a e…

The paper calculates bounds for risk metrics and entropies under partial information constraints.

This paper investigates the rank distribution, cumulative probability, and probability density of price returns for the stocks traded in the KSE and the KOSDAQ market. This research demonstrates that the rank distribution is consistent approximately with the Zipf's law with exponent $α= -1.00$ (KSE) and -1.31 (KOSDAQ),…

We present a new distributed fuzzy partitioning method to reduce the complexity of multi-way fuzzy decision trees in Big Data classification problems. The proposed algorithm builds a fixed number of fuzzy sets for all variables and adjusts their shape and position to the real distribution of training data. A two-step p…

In this work, a statistical analysis of the distribution of daily fluctuations of the IPC, the Mexican Stock Market Index is presented. A sample of the IPC covering the 13-year period 04/19/1990 - 08/21/2003 was analyzed and the cumulative probability distribution of its daily logarithmic variations studied. Results sh…

We study the volume distribution of nodal domains of random band-limited functions on generic manifolds, and find that in the high energy limit a typical instance obeys a deterministic universal law, independent of the manifold. Some of the basic qualitative properties of this law, such as its support, monotonicity and…

We show power-scaling behaviors for fluctuations in share volume, which no other studies have so far done. After analyzing a database of the daily transactions for all securities listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, we selected 1050 large companies that each had an unbroken series of daily trading activity from January …

Study quantifies how LLMs capture higher-order statistical structure using cumulant expansion.

New approach to Generalized Beta family using SDEs.

Nonparametric neural-network estimation of current-status data

The CSA-ES is an Evolution Strategy with Cumulative Step size Adaptation, where the step size is adapted measuring the length of a so-called cumulative path. The cumulative path is a combination of the previous steps realized by the algorithm, where the importance of each step decreases with time. This article studies …

A new graphical method compares stochastic variables visually.

COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.

Exact bounds derived for neural network outputs with noisy inputs.

In this letter, we derive the optimal discriminant functions for modulation classification based on the sampled distribution distance. The proposed method classifies various candidate constellations using a low complexity approach based on the distribution distance at specific testpoints along the cumulative distributi…

Develops uniform convergence guarantees for a broad class of risk functionals in supervised learning.

New algorithms minimize simple and cumulative regret in contextual bandits.

This work tackles multivariate CDFs and copulas using tensor factorization.

In this paper we revisit the integral functional of geometric Brownian motion $I_t= \int_0^t e^{-(μs +σW_s)}ds$, where $μ\in\mathbb{R}$, $σ> 0$, and $(W_s )_s>0$ is a standard Brownian motion. Specifically, we calculate the Laplace transform in $t$ of the cumulative distribution function and of the probability density …

Forecasts of multivariate probability distributions are required for a variety of applications. Scoring rules enable the evaluation of forecast accuracy, and comparison between forecasting methods. We propose a theoretical framework for scoring rules for multivariate distributions, which encompasses the existing quadra…

This paper extends stock trading results to include stop-loss orders.

Optimizes portfolios using CPT utility via convex optimization.

This work studies the chord length distribution, in the case where both ends lie on a $N$-dimensional hypersphere ($N \geq 2$). Actually, after connecting this distribution to the recently estimated surface of a hyperspherical cap \cite{SLi11}, closed-form expressions of both the probability density function and the cu…

Paper proposes a method to estimate confidence bands for survival random forests.

We introduce the class of affine forward variance (AFV) models of which both the conventional Heston model and the rough Heston model are special cases. We show that AFV models can be characterized by the affine form of their cumulant generating function, which can be obtained as solution of a convolution Riccati equat…

One approach for constructing copula functions is by multiplication. Given that products of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are also CDFs, an adjustment to this multiplication will result in a copula model, as discussed by Liebscher (J Mult Analysis, 2008). Parameterizing models via products of CDFs has some a…

The problem of an arbitrary truncated Levy flight description using the method of cumulant approach has been solved. The set of cumulants of the truncated Levy distribution given the assumption of arbitrary truncation has been found. The influence of truncation shape on the truncated Levy flight properties in the Gauss…

We leverage neural networks as universal approximators of monotonic functions to build a parameterization of conditional cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). By the application of automatic differentiation with respect to response variables and then to parameters of this CDF representation, we are able to build bl…