Study optimizes funding rates for cryptocurrency perpetual futures to maintain price alignment.
problem Maintaining alignment between perpetual future prices and target values in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed replicating portfolios and path-dependent funding rates using path-dependent infinite-horizon BSDEs and arbitrage pricing theory.
result Appropriate funding rate design can keep perpetual future prices aligned with target values.
We discuss Russia's underlying motives for issuing its government-backed cryptocurrency, CryptoRuble, and the implications thereof and of other likely-soon-forthcoming government-issued cryptocurrencies to some stakeholders (populace, governments, economy, finance, etc.), existing decentralized cryptocurrencies (such a…
Survey of stablecoins to reduce cryptocurrency volatility.
problem Reduction of cryptocurrency volatility during financial crises.
method Classification of stablecoin approaches and assessment of tradeoffs.
result Different stablecoin types offer varying tradeoffs and challenges.
India's tax on crypto income sparks debate on its future.
problem Impact of 30% tax on Indian crypto market.
method Discussion of various opinions and predictions.
result Uncertainty about crypto's future in India.
Cryptocurrencies use blockchain tech for secure transactions, offering new research opportunities.
problem Misunderstanding of cryptocurrency technology and lack of empirical data.
method Analyzing detailed transaction data and summarizing statistics.
result Opportunity for academic research in financial economics.
Cryptocurrencies show similarities to traditional markets but also have unique characteristics.
problem Understanding the investment potential and characteristics of cryptocurrencies.
method Organized stylized facts and analyzed through empirical asset pricing.
result Cryptocurrencies exhibit similarities to traditional markets but also have distinct characteristics.
Quarter-hour market bursts predict algorithmic trading and returns in crypto futures.
problem Predicting returns in cryptocurrency futures markets using quarter-hour market bursts.
method Analysis of trade data and Autocorrelation Map to identify and quantify algorithmic trading activity.
result Quarter-hour market bursts are associated with algorithmic trading and can predict returns.
The paper evaluates criteria for selecting cryptocurrencies based on historical data.
problem High risk of cryptocurrencies due to volatility.
method Characterized returns and risks using historical data in short time windows (7 and 15 days). Analyzed the importance of criteria using various methods.
result Importance of criteria for selecting cryptocurrencies is analyzed and evaluated.
Study evaluates cryptocurrency option pricing models, finds Kou and Bates models perform best.
problem High volatility and low liquidity in cryptocurrency futures contracts make traditional option pricing models unreliable.
method Calibrated and evaluated the performance of six option pricing models (Black-Scholes, Merton Jump Diffusion, Variance Gamma, Kou, Heston, and Bates) on BTC and ETH futures options.
result Kou and Bates models achieve the lowest pricing errors, with Kou outperforming Bates for BTC and ETH options respectively.
Examines various types of cryptocurrencies and their economic properties.
problem Understanding the economic characteristics of different cryptocurrencies.
method Characterization and analysis of different classes of cryptocurrencies using balance sheet operations.
result Different types of cryptocurrencies have distinct economic properties, ranging from commodities to liabilities of central banks.
AutoQuant addresses cryptocurrency backtesting fragility by modeling execution costs and improving strategy selection.
problem Fragile backtests of cryptocurrency perpetual futures ignoring microstructure frictions and execution costs.
method Execution-centric framework with Bayesian optimization, double screening, and strict T+1 semantics.
result Fee-only and zero-cost backtests overestimate returns, highlighting the importance of modeling execution costs.
This paper uses crypto derivatives data to estimate yield curves for cryptocurrencies.
problem Estimating yield curves for cryptocurrencies without bond markets.
method Using mathematical tools and data from cryptocurrency derivatives markets.
result Yield curves can be constructed for cryptocurrencies using derivative data.
Study examines cryptocurrency volatility factors using high-frequency data.
problem Understanding factors affecting cryptocurrency volatility.
method High-frequency panel data analysis of 2020-2022, comparing to equity benchmarks.
result Positive market returns and volatility drivers impact cryptocurrency volatility.
Paper predicts cryptocurrency bull and bear phases using Bitcoin's moving averages.
problem Determining cryptocurrency bull and bear phases based on Bitcoin performance.
method Employing predictive algorithms to forecast Bitcoin's 50 Day and 200 Day Moving Averages.
result Predicted data from Bitcoin's moving averages helps identify potential bull and bear phases.
Study finds recurring patterns in cryptocurrency volatility and liquidity.
problem Recurring patterns in volatility and liquidity of major cryptocurrencies.
method Data from two centralized exchanges and a decentralized exchange analyzed for patterns.
result Systematic patterns in volatility and liquidity across different timeframes.
This survey analyzes knowledge discovery in cryptocurrency transactions.
problem Understanding user behaviors and collective actions in cryptocurrency transactions.
method Data mining techniques and literature review.
result Classified existing research into three aspects and discussed major findings.
There are no solid arguments to sustain that digital currencies are the future of online payments or the disruptive technology that some of its former participants declared when used to face critiques. This paper aims to solve the cryptocurrency puzzle from a behavioral finance perspective by finding the parallelism be…
Model predicts jump risk premia influencing cryptocurrency futures and option performance.
problem Capturing asymmetric and time-varying skewness in cryptocurrency returns.
method Bivariate Hawkes process with positive and negative jump premia.
result Inferred jump risk premia predict futures cost of carry and option performance.
The study identifies core and satellite segments in the cryptocurrency market.
problem Identifying similar cryptocurrencies for strategic asset allocation.
method Segmentation of the cryptocurrency market using image / pattern recognition methods.
result Core and satellite segments identified in the cryptocurrency market.
Study improves cryptocurrency price prediction using neural networks and technical indicators.
problem Improving cryptocurrency price prediction accuracy.
method Integrates technical indicators, Transformer neural network, and BiLSTM.
result Demonstrates superior performance in predicting cryptocurrency prices.
Cryptocurrency is a well-developed blockchain technology application that is currently a heated topic throughout the world. The public availability of transaction histories offers an opportunity to analyze and compare different cryptocurrencies. In this paper, we present a dynamic network analysis of three representati…
Study forecasts cryptocurrency returns using LOB data and Hawkes model.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency returns due to their chaotic nature.
method Hawkes model applied to LOB data with COE model.
result Outperforms benchmarks in cryptocurrency return sign forecasting.
Network-based strategy for optimal cryptocurrency portfolios identified.
problem Challenges in predicting cryptocurrency prices in a volatile market.
method Network methods to identify decorrelated cryptocurrencies, Markowitz Portfolio Theory.
result Network-based portfolios outperform benchmarks with high expected returns.
Study benchmarks cryptocurrency risk using GBM, revealing Lognormal limitations.
problem Tackles limitations of Lognormal assumption in modeling cryptocurrency volatility and VaR.
method Applies Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) with Maximum Likelihood Estimation and correlated Monte Carlo Simulation.
result Observed limitations of Lognormal assumption in cryptocurrency volatility and VaR calculations.
This paper presents an agent-based artificial cryptocurrency market in which heterogeneous agents buy or sell cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoins. In this market, there are two typologies of agents, Random Traders and Chartists, which interact with each other by trading Bitcoins. Each agent is initially endowed wi…
The atomic swap protocol allows for the exchange of cryptocurrencies on different blockchains without the need to trust a third-party. However, market participants who desire to hold derivative assets such as options or futures would also benefit from trustless exchange. In this paper I propose the atomic swaption, whi…
This paper investigates the effects of the launch of Bitcoin futures on the intraday volatility of Bitcoin. Based on one-minute price data collected from four cryptocurrency exchanges, we first examine the change in realized volatility after the introduction of Bitcoin futures to investigate their aggregate effects on …
Perpetual futures offer leverage without maturity, with prices influenced by funding rates.
problem Understanding and pricing perpetual futures with funding rates.
method Derive no-arbitrage prices and bounds in markets with trading costs. Empirically analyze deviations and Sharpe ratios of implied arbitrage strategies.
result Implied arbitrage strategies in crypto markets yield high Sharpe ratios, indicating significant pricing inefficiencies.
This study compares price discovery in ETH and BTC markets between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
problem Understanding price discovery dynamics in cryptocurrency markets.
method Comparative analysis of centralized and decentralized exchanges, using econometric tools.
result Centralized exchanges lead in ETH price discovery, while futures markets lead in BTC.
Educational game on crypto investment helps students grasp macroeconomics.
problem Weak connections between microeconomic decision-making and macroeconomic concepts in classroom games.
method Design and study of an educational game on cryptocurrency investment.
result Engages students in understanding macroeconomics through incentivized individual investment decisions.
Kalshi prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency volatility through monetary policy and inflation signals.
problem Forecasting cryptocurrency volatility using prediction markets.
method Monetary policy and inflation signals from Kalshi prediction markets.
result Signals from Kalshi prediction markets predict cryptocurrency volatility with statistical significance.
We investigate connectedness within and across two major groups or assets: i) five popular cryptocurrencies, and ii) six major asset classes plus two commonly employed risk factors. Granger-causality tests uncover six direct channels of causality from the elements of the mainstream assets/risk factors group to digital …
Study uses sentiment analysis to predict cryptocurrency token returns in virtual reality.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency token returns in virtual reality economies.
method Used BERT for sentiment analysis and developed LSTM models integrating multi-modal features.
result Multi-modal model significantly outperforms price-only baseline in prediction accuracy.
FinSurvival provides a large-scale financial survival modeling benchmark.
problem Lack of large-scale, realistic, and freely available datasets for benchmarking AI survival models.
method Derived 16 survival modeling tasks from cryptocurrency lending data using an automated pipeline.
result Demonstrated that existing AI survival models are not well-suited for these challenging tasks.
Few assets in financial history have been as notoriously volatile as cryptocurrencies. While the long term outlook for this asset class remains unclear, we are successful in making short term price predictions for several major crypto assets. Using historical data from July 2015 to November 2019, we develop a large num…
PRIME models cryptocurrency exchange market impact.
problem Understanding and predicting market impact in cryptocurrency exchanges.
method Developed a multi-agent simulation to model market impact.
result Allows better estimation of market slippage and knock-on consequences.
This study compares Bitcoin and Litecoin using cryptocurrency metrics and trading strategies.
problem Valuation and trading strategies for cryptocurrencies.
method Metrics like UTXO, STXO, WAL, CDD, and trading strategies based on PU ratio.
result Bitcoin's superior store-of-value proposition compared to Litecoin validated.
ETF approval boosts Bitcoin's correlation with equities, stabilizes with gold, and maintains negative correlation with fiat currencies.
problem Impact of Bitcoin ETF approval on Bitcoin's relationships with traditional assets.
method Rolling correlation analysis, Chow tests, and DCC-GARCH models.
result Bitcoin's correlation with equities increased significantly post-ETF approval, while its relationship with gold stabilized and remained negatively correlated with fiat currencies.
Cryptocurrency prices predicted using LSTM, SVM, and polynomial regression.
problem Uncertainty in crypto coin values.
method Long Short Term Memory, Support Vector Machine, Polynomial Regression models.
result Support Vector Machine with linear kernel had the smallest mean square error.
Cryptocurrency patterns stable across market caps, validated by microstructure theory.
problem Stable patterns in cryptocurrency microstructure across different market caps.
method Unified CatBoost modeling pipeline with time-series cross validation, validated by backtests.
result Feature rankings and partial effects are stable across assets despite heterogeneous liquidity and volatility.
Optimizes cryptocurrency exchanges' risk management by reducing positions based on leverage.
problem Managing risk in cryptocurrency futures exchanges during large price moves.
method Formulates ADL as an optimization problem to minimize risk of loss, using a water-filling rule to equalize leverage.
result The optimal ADL policy minimizes maximum leverage among participants, providing a transparent and implementable benchmark.
Combines VaR and ES forecasts for cryptocurrency market risk management.
problem Improving tail risk forecasts in financial markets.
method Proposes semiparametric and parametric combination frameworks.
result Combined forecasts outperform individual VaR and ES forecasts.
FTX's failure linked to Terra-Luna collapse and Binance's influence.
problem FTX's collapse due to misuse of native token and reliance on leverage.
method Analyzed on-chain data, studied cryptocurrency dependency structures, and examined public trades.
result FTX's downfall was accelerated by Binance's tweets and public reaction.
Algorithmic trading is well studied in traditional financial markets. However, it has received less attention in centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) attributed the 2010 flash crash, one of the most turbulent periods in the history of financial markets that saw the Dow…
New PU ratio predicts long-term Bitcoin returns better than other methods.
problem Lack of convincing proxies for cryptocurrency fundamentals.
method Developed a new market-to-fundamental ratio (PU ratio) using blockchain accounting methods.
result PU ratio effectively predicts long-term Bitcoin returns compared to alternative methods.
Study finds discrepancies in open interest reporting for Bitcoin perpetual swaps.
problem Misquoted open interest in perpetual swaps leads to liquidity and solvency concerns.
method Analyzed tick-by-tick data from seven exchanges to identify discrepancies.
result Open interest reported by exchanges varies widely, some implausible.
Stablecoins promise to bridge fiat currencies with the world of cryptocurrencies. They provide a way for users to take advantage of the benefits of digital currencies, such as ability to transfer assets over the internet, provide assurance on minting schedules and scarcity, and enable new asset classes, while also part…
ETHGamDet detects crypto gambling contracts and addresses.
problem Identifying crypto gambling contracts and addresses.
method Multi-modal retrieval methods, LightGBM model with memory components.
result ETHGamDet achieves high F1-scores in address and contract classification.