Study finds recurring patterns in cryptocurrency volatility and liquidity.
problem Recurring patterns in volatility and liquidity of major cryptocurrencies.
method Data from two centralized exchanges and a decentralized exchange analyzed for patterns.
result Systematic patterns in volatility and liquidity across different timeframes.
Optimal crypto order execution using cross-exchange signals.
problem Maximizing order execution efficiency in cryptocurrency markets.
method Reinforcement learning applied to cross-exchange data.
result Cross-exchange signals improve optimal execution outcomes.
Thousands of cryptocurrencies have been issued and publicly exchanged since Bitcoin was invented in 2008. The total cryptocurrency market value exceeds 300 billion US dollars as of 2019. This paper analyzes the prices, volumes, blockchain transactions, coin difficulties and public opinion popularities of 3607 actively …
Cryptocurrencies show stable prices as a medium of exchange.
problem Price stability of cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange.
method Filtered daily returns of major cryptocurrencies compared to major financial assets using Pearson correlations, dynamic time-warping method, and Black-Scholes model.
result Cryptocurrencies exhibit stable daily returns relative to major financial assets over the years 2016-2020.
Temporal mixture ensemble predicts cryptocurrency exchange volumes better than traditional methods.
problem Intraday volume forecasting in cryptocurrency markets.
method Temporal mixture ensemble model using transaction and order book data.
result The model outperforms traditional time series and machine learning methods.
Based on the high-frequency recordings from Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange and professional trading platform that aims to bring Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies into the mainstream, the multiscale cross-correlations involving the Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Euro (EUR) and US dollar (USD) are studied over the pe…
Study shows multifractality emerging in decentralized cryptocurrency trading.
problem Understanding financial dynamics in decentralized cryptocurrency markets.
method Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) on tick-by-tick transaction data.
result Multifractality is emerging in decentralized cryptocurrency trading, with larger fluctuations dominating.
The cryptocurrency market is amongst the fastest-growing of all the financial markets in the world. Unlike traditional markets, such as equities, foreign exchange and commodities, cryptocurrency market is considered to have larger volatility and illiquidity. This paper is inspired by the recent success of using deep le…
PRIME models cryptocurrency exchange market impact.
problem Understanding and predicting market impact in cryptocurrency exchanges.
method Developed a multi-agent simulation to model market impact.
result Allows better estimation of market slippage and knock-on consequences.
New dynamic curves improve cryptocurrency exchange liquidity.
problem Low liquidity and arbitrage opportunities in existing AMMs.
method Dynamic curves adjust AMM function based on market prices.
result Maintains liquidity and total LP value over wide market price ranges.
Algorithmic trading is well studied in traditional financial markets. However, it has received less attention in centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) attributed the 2010 flash crash, one of the most turbulent periods in the history of financial markets that saw the Dow…
This paper proposes new GARCH models for cryptocurrency volatility, showing skewed distributions improve prediction accuracy.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency volatility and improving upon normality assumptions.
method Non-Gaussian GARCH models with Skewed Generalized Error Distribution.
result Skewed distributions enhance forecasting accuracy for cryptocurrency exchange rates.
The atomic swap protocol allows for the exchange of cryptocurrencies on different blockchains without the need to trust a third-party. However, market participants who desire to hold derivative assets such as options or futures would also benefit from trustless exchange. In this paper I propose the atomic swaption, whi…
Study finds discrepancies in open interest reporting for Bitcoin perpetual swaps.
problem Misquoted open interest in perpetual swaps leads to liquidity and solvency concerns.
method Analyzed tick-by-tick data from seven exchanges to identify discrepancies.
result Open interest reported by exchanges varies widely, some implausible.
Study analyzes cryptocurrency market complexity, comparing it to traditional markets.
problem Understanding the dynamics and characteristics of cryptocurrency markets.
method Statistical physics methods and analysis of price fluctuations.
result Cryptocurrency market exhibits complexity similar to traditional markets but with slower information flow.
Study finds significant price declines and capital reallocation from centralized to decentralized exchanges after FTX collapse.
problem Quantifying trust dynamics and redistribution between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
method Interdisciplinary approach combining causal inference and computational text analysis.
result Significant price declines and capital reallocation from centralized to decentralized exchanges following the FTX collapse.
Study improves cryptocurrency volatility forecasting using multiple data sources.
problem Improving accuracy of predicting cryptocurrency volatility.
method Developed CoMForE, a multimodal AdaBoost-LSTM ensemble model.
result Significantly improved cryptocurrency volatility forecasting (19.29% improvement).
Study forecasts cryptocurrency returns using LOB data and Hawkes model.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency returns due to their chaotic nature.
method Hawkes model applied to LOB data with COE model.
result Outperforms benchmarks in cryptocurrency return sign forecasting.
Cross-correlations in fluctuations of the daily exchange rates within the basket of the 100 highest-capitalization cryptocurrencies over the period October 1, 2015, through March 31, 2019, are studied. The corresponding dynamics predominantly involve one leading eigenvalue of the correlation matrix, while the others la…
Study compares costs and arbitrage in CEXs vs DEXs, finding DEXs better for large trades.
problem Comparing transaction costs and arbitrage in crypto exchanges.
method Comprehensive dataset analysis of transaction costs and no-arbitrage deviations.
result Fixed gas fees in DEXs impose a significant burden on small trades, while CEXs offer more competitive costs for larger trades.
This paper examines autocorrelation in major crypto markets, finding persistent correlations on short time frames.
problem Assessing the efficiency of major cryptocurrency markets through autocorrelation analysis.
method Pearson's autocorrelation coefficient, Ljung-Box test, rolling window analysis.
result Persistent autocorrelation on 5m and 1H time frames, disagreement on 1D and 1W time frames.
This study compares price discovery in ETH and BTC markets between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
problem Understanding price discovery dynamics in cryptocurrency markets.
method Comparative analysis of centralized and decentralized exchanges, using econometric tools.
result Centralized exchanges lead in ETH price discovery, while futures markets lead in BTC.
The price volatility of cryptocurrencies is often cited as a major hindrance to their wide-scale adoption. Consequently, during the last two years, multiple so called stablecoins have surfaced---cryptocurrencies focused on maintaining stable exchange rates. In this paper, we systematically explore and analyze the stabl…
The paper investigates cyclic arbitrage opportunities in decentralized exchanges.
problem Price discrepancies in decentralized exchanges lead to arbitrage opportunities.
method Theoretical framework and analysis of transaction-level data.
result Traders have executed over 292,606 cyclic arbitrages over eleven months, exploiting more than 138 million USD in revenue.
In recent years cryptocurrency trading has captured the attention of practitioners and academics. The volume of the exchange with standard currencies has known a dramatic increasing of late. This paper addresses to the need of models describing a bitcoin-US dollar exchange dynamic and their use to evaluate European opt…
Study cryptocurrency market complexity using multifractal and cross-correlation analyses.
problem Understanding the complexity and dynamics of cryptocurrency markets, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Multifractal formalism, cross-correlation analyses, network representation.
result Cryptocurrency market dynamics exhibit multifractal and intermittent bifractality, with topology changes during significant events.
Study detects unusual trading patterns on crypto exchanges using complexity measures.
problem Detecting artificial trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges.
method Complexity and statistical-structure measures derived from high-frequency trade-level data.
result Unusual trading patterns detected on Bitget for BTC and ETH after mid-May 2025.
Real-time detection of spoofing in cryptocurrency exchanges using neural networks.
problem Detecting and mitigating spoofing activity in limit order books.
method Novel order flow variables based on multi-scale Hawkes processes and a probabilistic market manipulation gain model.
result 31% of large orders could spoof the market, highlighting the importance of posting distance in price formation.
This study analyzes how cryptocurrency networks adapt to financial disruptions.
problem Understanding how cryptocurrency networks respond to financial crises.
method Vertex centrality measures to assess network stability and resilience.
result Different cryptocurrencies experienced shifts in their network roles during the FTX crisis.
Paper detects pump and dump schemes in cryptocurrencies.
problem Cryptocurrency market manipulation by communities.
method Analyzed communities, reported case studies, introduced real-time detection approach.
result Real-time detection approach outperforms current methods.
Study on cryptocurrency market correlations at various time scales.
problem Understanding the hierarchical structure of cryptocurrency market dynamics.
method Analysis of MST and TMFG for 25 liquid cryptocurrencies at different time horizons.
result Cryptocurrency market correlations decrease with finer time scales and show a growing hierarchical structure with coarser scales.
Cryptocurrencies are distributed systems that allow exchanges of native tokens among participants, or the exchange of such tokens for fiat currencies in markets external to these public ledgers. The availability of their complete historical bookkeeping opens up the possibility of understanding the relationship between …
Network analysis reveals changing cryptocurrency market leaders.
problem Understanding evolving cryptocurrency market leaders and their influence.
method Hourly-resolution data and Kendall's Tau correlation for network analysis.
result Pearson's correlation underestimates market dynamics; FTT and FTX were key during the 2021 bull run.
Study compares price patterns of cryptocurrencies and stocks using machine learning.
problem Investor behavior in cryptocurrencies vs. stocks.
method Machine learning models (LR, RF, SVM) classify price time series of cryptocurrencies and stocks.
result Cryptocurrencies and stocks have distinct price patterns, explained by various statistical features.
This study compares Bitcoin and Litecoin using cryptocurrency metrics and trading strategies.
problem Valuation and trading strategies for cryptocurrencies.
method Metrics like UTXO, STXO, WAL, CDD, and trading strategies based on PU ratio.
result Bitcoin's superior store-of-value proposition compared to Litecoin validated.
Study compares Web3 tokens to traditional assets, finding similar statistical properties.
problem Understanding statistical properties of Web3 tokens compared to traditional financial assets.
method Statistical analysis of various Web3 tokens across multiple time scales, comparing with traditional financial assets.
result Most Web3 tokens exhibit similar stylized facts to traditional financial assets, including heavy tails and volatility clustering.
LLT improves cryptocurrency price movement prediction accuracy.
problem Predicting intraday price movements of cryptocurrencies.
method Linear law-based feature space transformation (LLT) applied to cryptocurrency price data.
result LLT significantly enhances prediction accuracy for all cryptocurrencies.
The cryptocurrency market is a very huge market without effective supervision. It is of great importance for investors and regulators to recognize whether there are market manipulation and its manipulation patterns. This paper proposes an approach to mine the transaction networks of exchanges for answering this questio…
Cryptocurrency time-series predictability is low, resembling Brownian noise.
problem Low predictability of cryptocurrency exchange rates.
method Complexity and model predictions of Litecoin, Binance Coin, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP exchange rates.
result Simpler models outperform complex ones in cryptocurrency forecasting.
Study analyzes portfolio performance of crypto and traditional assets.
problem Impact of cryptocurrencies on portfolio performance.
method Used GARCH-Copula and GARCH-Vine Copula methods for risk structure calculation; Markowitz optimization for optimal asset weights.
result Portfolio with both crypto and traditional assets has higher Sharpe ratio and more stable performance.
RL enhances cryptocurrency trading profits.
problem Enhancing cryptocurrency trading profits through dynamic scaling.
method Combining RL with pair trading, using new reward shaping and observation/action spaces.
result RL-based trading achieved 9.94% to 31.53% annualized profits, vs. 8.33% for traditional methods.
FTX's failure linked to Terra-Luna collapse and Binance's influence.
problem FTX's collapse due to misuse of native token and reliance on leverage.
method Analyzed on-chain data, studied cryptocurrency dependency structures, and examined public trades.
result FTX's downfall was accelerated by Binance's tweets and public reaction.
Optimizes cryptocurrency exchanges' risk management by reducing positions based on leverage.
problem Managing risk in cryptocurrency futures exchanges during large price moves.
method Formulates ADL as an optimization problem to minimize risk of loss, using a water-filling rule to equalize leverage.
result The optimal ADL policy minimizes maximum leverage among participants, providing a transparent and implementable benchmark.
Investigates cryptocurrency maturity through collective dynamics and diversification.
problem Determining if cryptocurrency market exhibits similar mathematical properties to equity market.
method Adjusts focus to retail cryptocurrency investors' behavioral patterns, contrasting with equity market.
result Identifies ideal portfolio size and spread across cryptocurrencies, revealing signatures of maturity.
New digital currency aims for equal wealth distribution.
problem Inequality in cryptocurrency wealth distribution.
method Egalitarian coin minting and joint minting across communities.
result Achieves global distributive justice in wealth distribution.
Neural Hawkes method estimates cryptocurrency market microstructure and causality.
problem Estimating non-parametric Hawkes processes in high dimensions.
method Physics-informed neural networks for solving integral equations.
result Robust estimation of Hawkes processes in high dimensions.
ETF on CRIX reduces crypto risk and diversifies growth.
problem High volatility in cryptocurrencies makes them risky investments.
method Dynamic ETF construction on CRIX, considering fees, spreads, and rebalancing.
result ETF remains robust in core, low trading costs, increased liquidity.
Deep learning predicts Bitcoin spot price movements from order books.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency spot price movements from order book data.
method Temporal CNNs trained on 2-second prediction time horizon.
result 71% walk-forward accuracy on coinbase data.