This paper uses crypto derivatives data to estimate yield curves for cryptocurrencies.
problem Estimating yield curves for cryptocurrencies without bond markets.
method Using mathematical tools and data from cryptocurrency derivatives markets.
result Yield curves can be constructed for cryptocurrencies using derivative data.
This paper develops models for cryptocurrency trading and evaluates Bitcoin options.
problem Evaluating European options on Bitcoin with realistic models.
method Jump-diffusion models for cryptocurrency dynamics.
result Models accurately predict Bitcoin option prices.
Network analysis reveals changing cryptocurrency market leaders.
problem Understanding evolving cryptocurrency market leaders and their influence.
method Hourly-resolution data and Kendall's Tau correlation for network analysis.
result Pearson's correlation underestimates market dynamics; FTT and FTX were key during the 2021 bull run.
Paper introduces probabilistic forecasting methods for cryptocurrency volatility.
problem Inadequate point forecasting methods for capturing full spectrum of volatility outcomes.
method Combines multiple base models (statistical and machine learning) to estimate conditional quantiles of cryptocurrency realized variance.
result QRS method outperforms sophisticated alternatives for Bitcoin volatility forecasting.
Study examines dynamic relationship between BRICS stocks and cryptocurrencies.
problem Understanding the impact of BRICS stock markets on cryptocurrency markets.
method Time-varying parameter vector autoregression model (TVP-VAR).
result Three out of five BRICS stock markets are primary sources of shocks affecting the financial network.
Study finds discrepancies in open interest reporting for Bitcoin perpetual swaps.
problem Misquoted open interest in perpetual swaps leads to liquidity and solvency concerns.
method Analyzed tick-by-tick data from seven exchanges to identify discrepancies.
result Open interest reported by exchanges varies widely, some implausible.
This thesis builds a real-time VaR calculation workflow for crypto derivatives.
problem Managing risk in volatile cryptocurrency markets.
method Applied EMWA, GARCH, and HAR models to forecast volatility; used delta-gamma-theta approach and Cornish-Fisher expansion.
result Real-time VaR estimates with millisecond calculation latencies.
The paper explores how mining costs, rewards, and blockchain security are interconnected.
problem Understanding the interdependencies between mining costs, mining rewards, and blockchain security.
method Theoretical derivation and empirical analysis using daily crypto market data and autoregressive distributed lag approach.
result Cryptocurrency price and mining rewards are intrinsically linked to blockchain security outcomes.
The atomic swap protocol allows for the exchange of cryptocurrencies on different blockchains without the need to trust a third-party. However, market participants who desire to hold derivative assets such as options or futures would also benefit from trustless exchange. In this paper I propose the atomic swaption, whi…
The paper solves a pricing problem for a multiple reset put option using integral equations.
problem Valuation of a multiple reset put option with reset rights.
method Formulated as a multiple optimal stopping problem, reduced to single optimal stopping problems, solved by induction and integral equations.
result Characterized optimal reset boundaries as solutions to nonlinear integral equations and derived reset premium representations.
The paper models cryptocurrency market bubbles using agent-based models.
problem Understanding speculative bubbles in cryptocurrency markets.
method Agent-based models and ODE models to estimate return rates and market values.
result Formulated formula for total system risk.
This paper examines Bitcoin's price predictability, finding inefficiencies under certain conditions.
problem Predictability of Bitcoin's price movements.
method Theoretical reviews, empirical analyses, machine learning approaches, time series modeling.
result Bitcoin's market tends toward efficiency but shows exploitable inefficiencies under specific conditions.
A term structure model in which the short rate is zero is developed as a candidate for a theory of cryptocurrency interest rates. The price processes of crypto discount bonds are worked out, along with expressions for the instantaneous forward rates and the prices of interest-rate derivatives. The model admits function…
Study examines cryptocurrency risk spillover effects before and after pandemic.
problem Analyzing risk propagation among cryptocurrencies during extreme events.
method Asymmetric breakpoint approach and network analysis.
result Cryptocurrency risk spillover effect increased during pandemic.
The paper models cryptocurrency price and volatility with jumps and fractional volatility.
problem Empirical evidence shows jumps in cryptocurrency price and volatility.
method Fractional stochastic volatility model with jumps and short-term volatility dependency.
result Fractional stochastic volatility models outperform other models in pricing and hedging cryptocurrency options.
Study examines cryptocurrency impacts on financial indices using advanced risk models.
problem Interdependence between cryptocurrencies and financial indices, focusing on risk spillover.
method Hybrid approach integrating GARCH, EVT, and copula functions for risk measures.
result eGARCH-EVT-Copula model outperforms conventional methods in risk estimation.
The paper uses AI to analyze on-chain parameters and identify risky cryptocurrencies.
problem Identifying risky cryptocurrencies and understanding their price factors.
method Historical data analysis, AI algorithms, clustering, classification.
result A significant negative correlation between cryptocurrency price and maximum and total supply, and a weak positive correlation with 24-hour trading volume.
Study uses sentiment analysis to predict cryptocurrency token returns in virtual reality.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency token returns in virtual reality economies.
method Used BERT for sentiment analysis and developed LSTM models integrating multi-modal features.
result Multi-modal model significantly outperforms price-only baseline in prediction accuracy.
Cryptocurrencies show similarities to traditional markets but also have unique characteristics.
problem Understanding the investment potential and characteristics of cryptocurrencies.
method Organized stylized facts and analyzed through empirical asset pricing.
result Cryptocurrencies exhibit similarities to traditional markets but also have distinct characteristics.
This paper surveys cryptocurrency trading research, covering various aspects.
problem Understanding the unique nature and behavior of cryptocurrencies as assets.
method Comprehensive review of 146 research papers on cryptocurrency trading.
result Identifies promising open opportunities in cryptocurrency trading.
Study analyzes cryptocurrency market complexity, comparing it to traditional markets.
problem Understanding the dynamics and characteristics of cryptocurrency markets.
method Statistical physics methods and analysis of price fluctuations.
result Cryptocurrency market exhibits complexity similar to traditional markets but with slower information flow.
Study shows cryptocurrency investor base affects volatility.
problem Investor base changes impact cryptocurrency volatility.
method Proxying investor base with subreddit follower changes, analyzed idiosyncratic volatility.
result Changes in cryptocurrency investor base significantly increase idiosyncratic volatility.
TDA improves cryptocurrency portfolio management.
problem Traditional methods fail to manage cryptocurrencies effectively.
method Topological Data Analysis (TDA) for identifying investment opportunities.
result TDA-based portfolio management outperforms traditional methods.
Cryptocurrencies use blockchain tech for secure transactions, offering new research opportunities.
problem Misunderstanding of cryptocurrency technology and lack of empirical data.
method Analyzing detailed transaction data and summarizing statistics.
result Opportunity for academic research in financial economics.
Clusters cryptocurrency market states via cross correlation analysis.
problem Analyse cryptocurrency market dynamics.
method Cross correlation structure analysis over 5 years.
result Cryptocurrency market clusters into 4 states.
This paper models cryptocurrencies using α-stable distributions, outperforming other models.
problem Modeling the highly speculative and leptokurtic nature of cryptocurrencies.
method Used α-stable distribution and compared it with other heavy tailed distributions. Employed maximum likelihood method for estimation. result The α-stable distribution fits cryptocurrency return data better than other models. Investigates if adding cryptocurrencies to German portfolios diversifies better, finding mixed results.
problem Improving diversification in German investor portfolios using cryptocurrencies.
method Portfolio analysis with descriptive statistics, graphical methods, and econometric spanning tests, using a customized EWCI.
result Cryptocurrencies can improve diversification in some windows but not as a normal case.
DBNs predict cryptocurrency price directions by uncovering causal relationships.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency price movements due to volatility and external factors.
method Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) approach to identify causal relationships among features.
result DBN significantly outperforms baseline models in predicting cryptocurrency prices.
Transformer predicts Ethereum prices using cross-currency correlation and sentiment analysis.
problem Predicting Ethereum cryptocurrency prices with limited data.
method Transformer-based neural network with cross-currency correlation and sentiment analysis.
result Transformer model outperforms other models on some parameters.
Trend following in cryptocurrencies yields high returns, similar to commodities.
problem Investing in cryptocurrencies using trend following strategies.
method A decade of data analysis on cryptocurrency markets and trend following strategies.
result Cryptocurrencies offer strong returns and diversification against traditional equities.
Optimizes cryptocurrency portfolios using MNTS GARCH model.
problem Optimizing cryptocurrency portfolios with non-Gaussian return dynamics.
method Multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) GARCH model for non-Gaussian returns, Foster-Hart risk optimization.
result Foster-Hart optimization yields a more profitable portfolio with better risk-return balance.
Cryptocurrency and NFT prices are highly correlated, mirroring historical bubbles.
problem Evaluating the wealth effect of cryptocurrency prices on real estate.
method Exploiting metaverse LAND and cryptocurrencies to track correlations and causality.
result Cryptocurrency prices Granger cause NFT LAND prices, similar to historical bubbles.
Thousands of cryptocurrencies have been issued and publicly exchanged since Bitcoin was invented in 2008. The total cryptocurrency market value exceeds 300 billion US dollars as of 2019. This paper analyzes the prices, volumes, blockchain transactions, coin difficulties and public opinion popularities of 3607 actively …
This study examines non-performing assets and cryptocurrencies in Japan.
problem Economic downturn led to non-performing loans, affecting financial institutions.
method Literature analysis to summarize development, issuance, supervision, etc.
result Cryptocurrencies are being regulated in Japan despite non-performing loans.
This paper examines the uniform properties of AMMs in cryptocurrency markets.
problem Theoretical uniformity of AMMs despite diverse strategies.
method Derives a universal formula for liquidity provisioning and compares models.
result Constant function and token swap models are equivalent under uniform liquidity.
GRF models predict cryptocurrency VaR better than other methods.
problem Predicting Value at Risk (VaR) for volatile cryptocurrencies.
method Generalized Random Forests (GRF) adapted for quantile prediction.
result GRF models outperform other methods in cryptocurrency VaR predictions.
Cryptocurrencies evolve through survival of the fittest, modeled with evolutionary finance.
problem Understanding the dynamics of cryptocurrency markets.
method Evolutionary finance concepts applied to toy models of cryptocurrency data.
result Survival of the fittest in cryptofinance is explained through scaling laws.
This study attempts to analyze patterns in cryptocurrency markets using a special type of deep neural networks, namely a convolutional autoencoder. The method extracts the dominant features of market behavior and classifies the 40 studied cryptocurrencies into several classes for twelve 6-month periods starting from 15…
Investigate the evolving structure of cryptocurrency interactions using high-frequency returns.
problem Evolution of cryptocurrency interactions
method Construct directed and weighted networks from Granger causal relationships between cryptocurrency log-returns.
result Normalized returns exhibit heavy-tailed distributions.
Study finds whitepaper narratives do not predict market factor structure.
problem Predicting market behavior from cryptocurrency whitepaper claims.
method Zero-shot NLP classification combined with CP tensor decomposition of market data.
result Weak alignment between whitepaper claims and market statistics and latent factors.
A time-varying network reveals community structure in cryptocurrencies.
problem Investing in cryptocurrencies from different communities can diversify risk.
method Dynamic covariate-assisted spectral clustering method.
result Investors can earn 1.08% daily return by diversifying across communities.
Cryptocurrencies have heavy-tailed return distributions, requiring diversification.
problem Cryptocurrency returns do not follow Gaussian distributions.
method Applied econophysics and entropy measures to analyze returns.
result Portfolio diversification reduces return uncertainty.
Deep learning predicts cryptocurrency price movements with 78% accuracy.
problem Predicting price formation in cryptocurrency markets with high volatility and illiquidity.
method Applied deep learning to predict mid-price changes on live tick-level cryptocurrency data.
result Achieved 78% accuracy in predicting mid-price movement of Bitcoin vs USD.
The cryptocurrency market surpassed the barrier of \$100 billion market capitalization in June 2017, after months of steady growth. Despite its increasing relevance in the financial world, however, a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is still lacking, as most studies have focused exclusively on the behaviour o…
Cryptocurrency time-series predictability is low, resembling Brownian noise.
problem Low predictability of cryptocurrency exchange rates.
method Complexity and model predictions of Litecoin, Binance Coin, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP exchange rates.
result Simpler models outperform complex ones in cryptocurrency forecasting.
We study the problem of predicting whether the price of the 21 most popular cryptocurrencies (according to coinmarketcap.com) will go up or down on day d, using data up to day d-1. Our C2P2 algorithm is the first algorithm to consider the fact that the price of a cryptocurrency c might depend not only on historical pri…
CryptoGAT improves cryptocurrency price prediction by treating it as a graph problem.
problem Cryptocurrency price prediction challenges due to extreme volatility.
method CryptoGAT, a Graph Attention Network, redefines cryptocurrency prediction as a cross-asset graph problem.
result CryptoGAT outperforms state-of-the-art methods in cryptocurrency price prediction.
Study the hedging of cryptocurrency options in a volatile market.
problem Hedging options in a volatile, non-stationary cryptocurrency market.
method Calibrated to SVI-implied volatility surfaces, Monte Carlo price paths generated using SVCJ, GARCH, and historical data. Delta, Delta-Gamma, Delta-Vega, and Minimum Variance strategies applied. Wide range of market models tested.
result Calibration results indicate stochastic volatility, low jump frequency, and infinite activity. Short-dated options less sensitive to volatility or Gamma hedges; longer-dated options benefit from multiple-instrument hedges.