Investment herding can reduce household consumption, a phenomenon called crowding-out effect.
problem Investment herding's impact on household consumption.
method Optimal control theory to model and solve for household investment and consumption decisions.
result Existence of crowding-out effect due to investment herding.
It is common for CCTV operators to overlook inter- esting events taking place within the crowd due to large number of people in the crowded scene (i.e. marathon, rally). Thus, there is a dire need to automate the detection of salient crowd regions acquiring immediate attention for a more effective and proactive surveil…
Crowded trades cluster investors, affecting stock price stability.
problem Crowded trades lead to price instability and systemic risk.
method Market clustering measure using granular trading data.
result Market clustering has a causal effect on stock return distribution tails, especially positive tail.
New method improves crowd counting accuracy using inverse k-NN maps and multiscale upsampling.
problem Improving accuracy of crowd density maps for high-density gatherings.
method Developed MUD-ikNN architecture using inverse k-NN maps and multiscale upsampling. result New network architecture outperforms state-of-the-art crowd counting.
ACFM predicts crowd flow adaptively integrating various factors.
problem Adaptive integration of factors affecting crowd flow changes.
method Unified neural network module with attention mechanism.
result Significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods.
New method addresses crowding in high-dimensional data visualization.
problem Crowding issue in visualizing high-dimensional data.
method Adjusting capacity of high-dimensional balls and estimating correlation dimension.
result Mitigates crowding in various distance metrics.
Machine learning outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns.
problem Determining if machine learning can outperform human decision-making in crowd lending.
method Using data from Prosper.com, a sophisticated ML algorithm was trained to predict loan defaults and investment returns.
result The ML algorithm outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns, especially for risky loans.
Proposes a method to find traffic regulations efficiently.
problem Finding appropriate traffic regulations in congested events.
method Graph Convolutional Networks for modeling regulation effects.
result The method can find a road to close that reduces travel time.
Crowdsourcing can improve scientific investigation by enabling reproducibility and transparency.
problem Current research methods lack reproducibility and transparency, leading to unreliable decisions.
method Next-generation investigative approach leveraging human diversity, micro-specialized crowds, and computer-assisted control methods.
result The Theory of Enablers provides specific cognitive and non-cognitive enablers for crowd-based scientific investigation.
MRCNet tackles crowd counting and density mapping in aerial imagery.
problem Accurate crowd counting and density estimation in aerial imagery.
method MRCNet is a novel encoder-decoder CNN that combines VGG-16 with FPN-inspired lateral connections.
result MRCNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods in aerial and CCTV-based crowd counting.
Enhances crowd safety through AI and data-driven models.
problem Improving crowd safety during events.
method Innovative data collection, AI, and machine learning.
result Accurate multi-day forecasts for event planning.
Lower bounds show OLS outperforms basis pursuit in overparameterized linear regression.
problem Excess risk of sparse interpolating procedures in overparameterized linear regression.
method Proved lower bounds on excess risk for OLS and basis pursuit.
result Excess risk of basis pursuit can converge at an exponentially slower rate than OLS.
The study reveals how institutional trading activity impacts markets, finding that total order flow is key.
problem Understanding how institutional trading activity affects market impact.
method Analysis of a large database of metaorders by institutional investors in the U.S. equity market, using a simple heuristic model.
result The market impact of multiple metaorders depends on the total number of metaorders and their mutual sign correlation, reproducing empirical market impact curves.
Cost forecasting helps crowdsourcers manage growing task sets efficiently.
problem Crowdsourcers face resource overwhelm with growing task sets.
method Cost forecasting to decide between new tasks or existing ones based on cost efficiency.
result Cost forecasting improves accuracy and efficiency in crowdsourcing.
Crowd wisdom improves decision-making by integrating multiple responses.
problem Improving collective decision-making accuracy from multiple responses.
method Analogous to unsupervised dimension reduction, using techniques like PCA and Isomap.
result Crowd wisdom methods outperform existing solutions, including supervised learning.
Paper proposes JEDI teaching framework for adaptive crowd teaching.
problem Adaptive crowd teaching in crowdsourcing applications.
method Exponentially decayed memory model for teaching and balancing diversity and accuracy.
result JEDI teaching framework outperforms state-of-the-art techniques.
Max-MIG tackles crowdsourced label learning without knowing crowd information structure.
problem Learning from crowds without knowing the information structure among crowds.
method Max-MIG is an information theoretic approach that simultaneously aggregates crowdsourced labels and learns a data classifier.
result Max-MIG achieves state-of-the-art results in most settings, including real-world data.
Proposes methods to improve wisdom of crowds by considering worker diversity and correlations.
problem Improving wisdom of crowds by considering worker diversity and correlations.
method Proposes inference, learning, and teaching methods considering worker diversity and correlations.
result Proposes methods to improve wisdom of crowds by considering worker diversity and correlations.
We found that factors decay over time, with momentum fitting best.
problem Understanding how factors decay over time and their impact on performance.
method Derived a hyperbolic decay model for factors, tested against linear and exponential alternatives.
result Momentum exhibits hyperbolic decay, outperforming linear and exponential models.
Study shows how 'crowding' in equity trading affects performance and costs.
problem Deterioration of strategy performance, increased trading costs, and systemic risk due to equity factor crowding.
method Direct metrics of crowding based on imbalances of trades executed on the market, analyzing U.S. equity market data.
result Significant signs of crowding in well-known equity signals, especially Momentum, affecting order flow and portfolio rebalancing.
A new fast algorithm for crowd labeling of sentiment data.
problem Crowd labeling of sentiment data with limited labeled data.
method A fast EM-based algorithm that converges linearly.
result Significant speedup in time taken for aggregation (up to 8x over DS).
MTCNet uses MTL to estimate crowd density and count.
problem Crowd count estimation challenges due to scale variations and perspective.
method MTL deep neural network architecture with two tasks: density estimation and count classification.
result Achieves lower MAE than state-of-the-art methods on multiple datasets.
Bayesian deep learning counts crowds robustly despite occlusions and scale variations.
problem Accurately counting individuals in crowded scenes with occlusions and varying sizes.
method Proposes a Bayesian multi-scale neural network with a ResNet feature extractor, dilated convolutions, and a Perspective-aware Aggregation Module.
result Achieves superior performance on crowd counting benchmarks with uncertainty estimates.
Crowd opinions in microblogs can predict event outcomes, matching with expert opinions.
problem Utilizing crowd wisdom for event outcome prediction in microblogs.
method Multi-label sentiment classification of tweets to gauge crowd opinion and compare with expert predictions.
result Crowd opinions in microblogs often match with expert opinions, especially in non-debate events.
BiLA uses variational Bayesian inference to aggregate noisy labels online.
problem Aggregating noisy labels from crowd workers in real-time.
method Variational Bayesian inference and stochastic optimization.
result BiLA reduces label error by at least 10-1.5% points.
SafeRNet uses IoT and cloud computing to provide real-time safe routes.
problem High traffic fatality rates despite advanced technology.
method Bayesian network for safe route modeling.
result Demonstrated effectiveness with real traffic data.
System detects social interactions in crowds using mobile phone sensors.
problem Detecting social interactions in crowded settings.
method Multi-modal mobile sensing (BLE, accelerometer, gyroscope) and machine learning.
result 77.8% precision and 86.5% recall for predicting social interactions.
The paper interprets financial markets as crowds during booms and busts.
problem Understanding market irrationality during booms and busts.
method Integrates crowd psychology into behavioural finance.
result Markets behave like psychological crowds during booms and busts.
A model-free hedging method using stock crowding scores.
problem Designing costless portfolio strategies to hedge market risk.
method Network analysis of fund holdings to compute crowding scores, constructing long-short portfolios without numerical optimization.
result Long-short portfolios provide protection against both small and large market price fluctuations.
Crowdsourced wisdom improves causal learning.
problem Improving causal learning through collective intelligence.
method Crowdsourcing, expert knowledge elicitation, aggregation techniques, and LLMs.
result Collective contributions enhance global causal structure.
A new network predicts object/non-object masks to improve crowd counting.
problem Counting objects in images or videos with varying density.
method Proposes a network with a branch for object/non-object mask prediction, integrating it into the density map estimation.
result Demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods on five public datasets.
Crowd-powered system flags misinformation for fact checking.
problem Reduce the spread of fake news and misinformation on social media.
method Flexible temporal point process representation and scalable online algorithm Curb for optimal fact checking selection.
result Our scalable algorithm Curb can effectively reduce the spread of fake news and misinformation.
The average portfolio structure of institutional investors is shown to have properties which account for transaction costs in an optimal way. This implies that financial institutions unknowingly display collective rationality, or Wisdom of the Crowd. Individual deviations from the rational benchmark are ample, which il…
This paper proposes a general model for synchronized crowding behavior. An order parameter is introduced to quantify the level of synchronization which is shown a function of percentage of agents in reactive state. Further, synchronization is shown to be driven by the most active agents with the highest volatility. A t…
t-SNE with Cauchy kernel shows finer cluster structure.
problem Crowding problem in t-SNE visualizations.
method Developed an efficient implementation of t-SNE with a heavy-tailed t-distribution kernel. result Fine cluster structure revealed with ν<1. CENs learn interpretable embeddings from images considering worker biases and visual context.
problem Learning interpretable embeddings from noisy crowd annotations.
method Context Embedding Networks (CENs) model worker biases and visual context.
result CENs produce more interpretable embeddings than existing approaches.
Paper identifies food types from Yelp photos using machine learning.
problem Ineffective labeling of food photos on Yelp.
method Image pre-processing, CNN feature extraction, and classification algorithms.
result Identifies up to 10 food types from raw photos with high accuracy.
Paper tackles deep learning from crowdsourcing, improving neural network training.
problem Learning deep neural networks from noisy, unreliable crowd labels.
method Developed an EM algorithm for annotator reliability estimation and a crowd layer for end-to-end training.
result Achieved state-of-the-art results across various crowdsourced datasets.
Crowdsourcing with prospect theory handles spammers in binary classification.
problem Binary classification with spammers and reject option.
method Prospect theory for worker behavior, weighted majority voting for decision fusion.
result Asymptotic system performance and correct classification probability derived.
BUOCA optimizes crowdsourcing budgets by assigning more workers to hard tasks.
problem Crowdsourcing budget inefficiency due to uniform worker assignment.
method Optimal worker allocation based on task difficulty and features, without using worker profiles.
result Large budget savings (up to 49%) with minimal accuracy loss.
Bayesian model improves truth inference from highly redundant crowd annotations.
problem Inferring true annotations from highly redundant crowd annotations.
method Bayesian graphical model with conjugate priors and iterative expectation-maximisation inference.
result Our technique significantly outperforms majority vote heuristic at one-sided level 0.025.
Paper tackles representation learning from inconsistent crowdsourced labels.
problem Limited and inconsistent crowdsourced labels hinder representation learning.
method Proposes RLL framework to learn representation from limited crowdsourced labels.
result RLL outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in learning from limited labeled data.
Study improves forecasting of ED crowding using advanced ML models.
problem Improving forecasting of emergency department crowding.
method Advanced machine learning models (N-BEATS, LightGBM, DeepAR) using multivariable input data.
result N-BEATS and LightGBM outperform benchmarks in forecasting ED occupancy.
Market crowd trading behavior and volume impact stock prices in China.
problem Little known about the role of trading volume in market behavior.
method Adaptive hypotheses tested on Chinese stock market data.
result Market crowd trades efficiently and achieves agreement on prices.
The Wisdom of Crowds is a phenomenon described in social science that suggests four criteria applicable to groups of people. It is claimed that, if these criteria are satisfied, then the aggregate decisions made by a group will often be better than those of its individual members. Inspired by this concept, we present a…
Bayesian method predicts individual and crowd preferences from small data.
problem Difficult to predict preferences from limited personal data and noisy labels.
method Combines matrix factorization with Gaussian processes for scalable inference.
result Method predicts preferences for new users and items not in training set.
The clustering ensemble technique aims to combine multiple clusterings into a probably better and more robust clustering and has been receiving an increasing attention in recent years. There are mainly two aspects of limitations in the existing clustering ensemble approaches. Firstly, many approaches lack the ability t…
New method accurately reconstructs Russell 3000 index, revealing crowded portfolios.
problem Crowding in index portfolios during reconstitution events.
method Developed a Python package for accurate index reconstruction using CRSP US Stock data.
result Annual Russell 3000 portfolios are more crowded than quarterly ones, suggesting lower transaction costs.