Critical incident stages identification and reasonable prediction of traffic incident duration are essential in traffic incident management. In this paper, we propose a traffic incident duration prediction model that simultaneously predicts the impact of the traffic incidents and identifies the critical groups of tempo…
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48 results for “critical task duration”
Market valuation duration is 175 years, but drops to 46 years during crises.
problem Understanding the duration of market valuation and its impact on returns.
method Comparing market valuation ratios and dividends to estimate duration, analyzing the discount rate effect.
result Valuation duration is negatively correlated with market returns, with a robust out-of-sample R2 of 15%.
This paper tackles JSSP with uncertain task durations using DRL.
problem Job Shop Scheduling Problem with uncertain task durations.
method Integrates Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to generate robust schedules.
result Advances DRL applications to JSSPs, enhancing generalization and scalability.
A new method prioritizes project risks using Monte Carlo Simulation.
problem Determining the relative importance of project risks.
method Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) for quantitative prioritization.
result Differentiates critical risks based on their impact on project duration and cost.
Critical learning periods found in deep linear networks too.
problem Understanding why critical learning periods emerge in both biological and artificial networks.
method Focused on deep linear network models, analyzed depth and data distribution, and examined multi-task learning.
result Critical periods depend on model depth and data distribution structure, and pre-training can affect transfer performance.
Threshold levels in Economicsq-fin.ST
In this paper, we present theorems specifying the critical values for series associated with debts arranged in the order of their duration.
Parastatistic distribution of a total debt owed to a large number of creditors considered in relation to the duration of these debts. The process of debt calculation depends on the fractal dimension of economic system in which this process takes place. Two actual variants of these dimensions are investigated. Critical …
New approach to continual learning prioritizes adaptation over retention.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in lifelong learning models.
method Formalized CL as an online optimization problem, introduced Transfer Efficiency, and derived a Critical Task Duration.
result Retention can hinder real-time adaptation in non-stationary environments.
Study shows training duration impacts model merging quality, suggesting joint selection of duration and method.
problem Impact of expert training duration on model merging quality for large language models (LLMs).
method Systematically fine-tuned experts on five domains across three model sizes, evaluating five merging methods at each duration.
result Training duration affects merging quality, with simple averaging degrading sharply and sparsification-based methods performing well past the validation optimum.
Study shows training duration affects model merging quality, suggesting joint selection of duration and method.
problem Impact of expert training duration on model merging quality for large language models (LLMs).
method Systematically fine-tuned experts on five domains across three model sizes, evaluated five merging methods at each duration.
result Training duration and merging method should be chosen jointly, not independently.
Animals execute goal-directed behaviours despite the limited range and scope of their sensors. To cope, they explore environments and store memories maintaining estimates of important information that is not presently available. Recently, progress has been made with artificial intelligence (AI) agents that learn to per…
Study on optimizing task allocation for agents receiving proposals sequentially.
problem Optimizing task allocation for agents receiving proposals sequentially.
method An agent receives task proposals sequentially and can either accept or reject a proposal. The study considers two scenarios: known reward function but unknown task duration distribution, and unknown reward function.
result Regret incurred by the agent in both scenarios.
Two methods estimate effect size for online experiments, improving accuracy and efficiency.
problem Determining the correct effect size for online experiment duration.
method Two approaches: hierarchical models and utility theory.
result Proposed methods outperform baseline approaches in accuracy and efficiency.
A new indicator measures project risk from activity durations.
problem Managing project risks throughout the lifecycle.
method Activity Risk Index (ARI) based on Schedule Risk Baseline.
result Identifies activities contributing most to project uncertainty.
Study models parking duration using machine learning and interpretable methods.
problem Parking issues in developing countries like India.
method Artificial neural networks (ANNs) for capturing relationships; Garson algorithm and LIME for model interpretation.
result LIME shows higher prediction accuracy and can be universally adopted.
Todays interactive devices such as smart-phone assistants and smart speakers often deal with short-duration speech segments. As a result, speaker recognition systems integrated into such devices will be much better suited with models capable of performing the recognition task with short-duration utterances. In this pap…
LSTM-based speaker verification usually uses a fixed-length local segment randomly truncated from an utterance to learn the utterance-level speaker embedding, while using the average embedding of all segments of a test utterance to verify the speaker, which results in a critical mismatch between testing and training. T…
Generative model predicts daily activity sequences with duration-aware dynamics.
problem Accurately forecasting granular daily activity sequences for energy demand.
method Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics.
result Explicitly modeling activity durations improves predictive performance.
Traffic classification has various applications in today's Internet, from resource allocation, billing and QoS purposes in ISPs to firewall and malware detection in clients. Classical machine learning algorithms and deep learning models have been widely used to solve the traffic classification task. However, training s…
Scheduling surgeries is a challenging task due to the fundamental uncertainty of the clinical environment, as well as the risks and costs associated with under- and over-booking. We investigate neural regression algorithms to estimate the parameters of surgery case durations, focusing on the issue of heteroscedasticity…
Graph Attention Networks predict power outage durations from natural disasters.
problem Accurately predicting power outage durations from geospatial and weather data.
method Graph Attention Networks (GAT) for semi-supervised learning.
result GAT model outperforms existing methods by 2% - 15% in accuracy.
New model predicts financial transaction durations using quantiles.
problem Modeling financial transaction durations using traditional mean duration.
method Proposes a new autoregressive conditional duration model based on log-symmetric distributions reparametrized by quantiles.
result Proposed model allows for modeling different percentiles of financial transaction durations.
In this letter we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for Explicit-state-duration hidden Markov models (EDHMM). EDHMMs are HMMs that have latent states consisting…
New model improves inference on asset market durations.
problem Statistical artifacts in trade aggregation.
method Flexible stochastic duration model with uncertainty in related trades.
result Conditional hazard function varies less than previous studies.
The Stock Market is a complex self-interacting system, characterized by an intermittent behaviour. Periods of high activity alternate with periods of relative calm. In the present work we investigate empirically about the possibility that the market is in a self-organized critical state (SOC). A wavelet transform metho…
Predicting Length of Stay in the Intensive Care Unit with Temporal Pointwise Convolutional Networkscs.LG
New model predicts ICU patients' stay duration efficiently.
problem Efficient ICU bed allocation under resource constraints.
method Temporal Pointwise Convolution (TPC) model combining temporal and pointwise convolutions.
result Significant performance improvements over LSTM and Transformer models.
New econometric results for financial duration models under varying tail behaviors.
problem Estimation and inference challenges in financial durations models with random event counts.
method Analysis of likelihood estimators for ACD models, focusing on tail behavior and stationarity.
result Asymptotic normality breaks down for tail indices smaller than one, leading to mixed Gaussian estimators with non-standard rates of convergence.
Beyond the Mean: Limit Theory and Tests for Infinite-Mean Autoregressive Conditional Durationsecon.EM
Unified asymptotic theory and tests for ACD models reveal infinite-mean durations in cryptocurrency trading.
problem Challenges in asymptotic theory for ACD models, especially for integrated ACD.
method Unified asymptotic theory for quasi-maximum likelihood estimator, hypothesis testing framework.
result Infinite-mean durations in cryptocurrency trading, rejected integrated ACD hypothesis.
Effective modeling of electronic health records presents many challenges as they contain large amounts of irregularity most of which are due to the varying procedures and diagnosis a patient may have. Despite the recent progress in machine learning, unsupervised learning remains largely at open, especially in the healt…
New conditions for ACD model consistency and normality.
problem Random number of durations in ACD model.
method Additional sufficient conditions for consistency and normality of QMLE.
result Finite mean of durations is required for consistency and normality.
New approach predicts event probabilities for better event detection.
problem Class imbalance and inaccurate event detection in time series analysis.
method Regression-based approach to predict probability densities at event locations.
result Regression-based approaches outperform segmentation-based methods.
The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. A scaling pattern is observed in the distributions of intertrade dur…
A new method uses burst and inter-burst duration to test long-range memory in financial markets.
problem Varying results from long-range memory estimators in financial markets.
method Burst and inter-burst duration statistical analysis of limit order book data.
result The new method provides a more reliable evaluation of the Hurst exponent.
Study predicts stock transaction durations using LSTM and attention mechanism.
problem Estimating the probability density function of transaction durations in financial markets.
method Proposes a hybrid model combining LSTM networks and attention mechanism to extend ACD model.
result Demonstrates superior performance of the hybrid model on large-scale financial data.
Proposes a new model for better speech segmentation.
problem Improving speech segmentation accuracy.
method Integrates recurrent explicit duration variables into rSLDS and uses Pólya-gamma augmentation for inference.
result Demonstrates improved segmentation on various datasets.
This paper introduces the Markov-Switching Multifractal Duration (MSMD) model by adapting the MSM stochastic volatility model of Calvet and Fisher (2004) to the duration setting. Although the MSMD process is exponential -mixing as we show in the paper, it is capable of generating highly persistent autocorrelation. W…
A key barrier to making phonetic studies scalable and replicable is the need to rely on subjective, manual annotation. To help meet this challenge, a machine learning algorithm was developed for automatic measurement of a widely used phonetic measure: vowel duration. Manually-annotated data were used to train a model t…
Intertrade duration of equities is an important financial measure characterizing the trading activities, which is defined as the waiting time between successive trades of an equity. Using the ultrahigh-frequency data of a liquid Chinese stock and its associated warrant, we perform a comparative investigation of the sta…
The intraday pattern, long memory, and multifractal nature of the intertrade durations, which are defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, are investigated based upon the limit order book data and order flows of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. An inverse…
This article presents valuation of Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds) on Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) and empirical test of duration, modified duration and convexity of the T-bonds at MSE in order to determine sensitivity of bonds prices on interest rate changes. The main goal of this study is to determine how standard valuat…
In finance, durations between successive transactions are usually modeled by the autoregressive conditional duration model based on a continuous distribution omitting zero values. Zero or close-to-zero durations can be caused by either split transactions or independent transactions. We propose a discrete model allowing…
Arterial incident duration prediction using a bi-level framework of extreme gradient-tree boostingcs.LG
Predicting traffic incident duration is a major challenge for many traffic centres around the world. Most research studies focus on predicting the incident duration on motorways rather than arterial roads, due to a high network complexity and lack of data. In this paper we propose a bi-level framework for predicting th…
Text-independent speaker recognition using short utterances is a highly challenging task due to the large variation and content mismatch between short utterances. I-vector based systems have become the standard in speaker verification applications, but they are less effective with short utterances. In this paper, we fi…
This paper considers magnitude, asymptotics and duration of drawdowns for some Lévy processes. First, we revisit some existing results on the magnitude of drawdowns for spectrally negative Lévy processes using an approximation approach. For any spectrally negative Lévy process whose scale functions are well-behaved at …
This paper addresses the problem of predicting duration of unplanned power outages, using historical outage records to train a series of neural network predictors. The initial duration prediction is made based on environmental factors, and it is updated based on incoming field reports using natural language processing …
Improves speaker verification for variable-duration utterances using a feature pyramid module.
problem Improving robustness for variable-duration utterances in speaker verification.
method Integrates a feature pyramid module into multi-scale aggregation to enhance speaker-discriminative information from multiple layers.
result Improves performance for both short and long utterances compared to state-of-the-art approaches.
The extension of image generation to video generation turns out to be a very difficult task, since the temporal dimension of videos introduces an extra challenge during the generation process. Besides, due to the limitation of memory and training stability, the generation becomes increasingly challenging with the incre…
Paper forecasts financial trading durations using a new point process model.
problem Forecasting limit order book durations in high-frequency financial data.
method Self-exciting flexible residual point process incorporating empirical distributional features.
result The model achieves strong predictive performance compared to alternative approaches.