Bayesian model assesses criminal threat escalation.
problem Evaluate threats posed by potential violent criminals.
method Customised three-level Bayesian hierarchical model.
result Model calibrates to expert judgments and updates in real time.
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48 results for “criminal threat assessment”
Improving Fairness in Criminal Justice Algorithmic Risk Assessments Using Conformal Prediction Setsstat.AP
Paper uses conformal prediction sets to make criminal justice risk assessments fairer.
problem Fairness issues in criminal justice risk assessment algorithms.
method Adopting conformal prediction sets to remove unfairness from algorithms and covariates.
result Constructs confusion tables and measures fairness effectively free of racial differences.
Objectives: Discussions of fairness in criminal justice risk assessments typically lack conceptual precision. Rhetoric too often substitutes for careful analysis. In this paper, we seek to clarify the tradeoffs between different kinds of fairness and between fairness and accuracy. Methods: We draw on the existing liter…
Research creates a taxonomy to bridge AI security and regulatory gaps.
problem Disciplinary disconnect between technical and legal teams in AI risk assessment.
method Developed an AI System Threat Vector Taxonomy with 9 domains and 53 sub-threats.
result Empirically validated and aligned with ISO/IEC 42001 controls and NIST AI RMF functions.
Machine Learning Partners in Criminal Networksphysics.soc-ph
Machine learning predicts criminal networks' missing partnerships and future behavior.
problem Predicting and understanding criminal networks' properties and future behavior.
method Combining graph representation learning and machine learning methods.
result Outstanding accuracy in predicting missing criminal partnerships and future behavior.
Recidivism prediction instruments provide decision makers with an assessment of the likelihood that a criminal defendant will reoffend at a future point in time. While such instruments are gaining increasing popularity across the country, their use is attracting tremendous controversy. Much of the controversy concerns …
Recidivism prediction instruments (RPI's) provide decision makers with an assessment of the likelihood that a criminal defendant will reoffend at a future point in time. While such instruments are gaining increasing popularity across the country, their use is attracting tremendous controversy. Much of the controversy c…
Network analysis helps prevent money laundering by identifying risky clients and suspicious clusters.
problem Preventing money laundering using social network analysis.
method Real-world data analysis, network metrics, predictive models, visual analysis.
result Risk profiles can be predicted using social network metrics.
Machine learning improves cybersecurity by learning from data.
problem Designing effective detection algorithms for cyber threats.
method Machine learning algorithms to learn from security data.
result ML algorithms can improve threat hunting and remediation.
We present a new approach for mitigating unfairness in learned classifiers. In particular, we focus on binary classification tasks over individuals from two populations, where, as our criterion for fairness, we wish to achieve similar false positive rates in both populations, and similar false negative rates in both po…
Bayesian system helps identify and thwart terrorist plans.
problem Identifying and thwarting terrorist plans before they occur.
method Develops a Bayesian decision support system to integrate member and group activities.
result Estimates the combined threat posed by a terrorist group.
Paper assesses holistic risks of inference attacks on ML models.
problem Lack of comprehensive risk assessment of inference attacks on ML models.
method Presented a threat model taxonomy for four inference attacks on five model architectures and four image datasets.
result Complexity of training dataset influences attack performance; model stealing and membership inference attacks are negatively correlated.
Escalation, timing and severity of insurgent and terrorist events: Toward a unified theory of future threatsphysics.soc-ph
I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based collective violence and illicit activity. I point out how the borders distinguish…
New fair-by-design model reduces bias in recidivism prediction.
problem Discriminatory bias in recidivism prediction models.
method Prototype-based, locally learned, data distribution extraction.
result Reduces bias and provides interpretable rules.
New model detects hidden group structures in criminal networks.
problem Challenges in identifying group structures in criminal networks with noisy data.
method Developed an extended stochastic block model (ESBM) to infer group structures.
result Unveiled complex block structures in an Italian mafia network.
Improves pre-trial risk assessments by making them safer without changing existing rules.
problem Improving pre-trial risk assessments while maintaining deterministic rules.
method Developed a maximin robust optimization approach to find a safer policy.
result Can safely improve certain components of the risk assessment instrument.
In Pursuit of Interpretable, Fair and Accurate Machine Learning for Criminal Recidivism Predictionstat.ML
Interpretable ML models predict recidivism as well as non-interpretable methods and are more fair.
problem Improving recidivism prediction models for fairness and interpretability.
method Trained interpretable ML models on two recidivism datasets, compared to existing methods, and analyzed fairness.
result Interpretable ML models can predict recidivism as well as non-interpretable methods and are more fair.
The increasing impact of algorithmic decisions on people's lives compels us to scrutinize their fairness and, in particular, the disparate impacts that ostensibly-color-blind algorithms can have on different groups. Examples include credit decisioning, hiring, advertising, criminal justice, personalized medicine, and t…
New approach to algorithmic fairness for human-AI collaboration considers compliance with human decisions.
problem Current fairness approaches assume perfect human compliance, but real-world compliance is often poor.
method Defines compliance-robustly fair algorithms and proposes an optimization strategy to improve fairness.
result Algorithmic recommendations can improve fairness even if humans do not fully comply with fair algorithms.
Study disrupts Sicilian Mafia networks using data analysis.
problem Challenges in disrupting resilient criminal networks.
method Social Network Analysis methods applied to real-world datasets.
result Neutralizing only 5% of affiliates can disrupt network connectivity by 70%.
Local discovery method uncovers direct unfairness in complex systems.
problem Identifying causal pathways of unfairness in complex domains.
method Local discovery for direct discrimination (LD3) method.
result LD3 returns a valid adjustment set (VAS) for assessing unfairness.
The paper assesses fairness in AI for financial services, using statistical methods.
problem Unintentional bias and insufficient model validation in AI applications.
method Statistical methods for imbalanced data treatment and bias mitigation.
result Fairness evaluation metrics applied to a credit card default payment example.
Framework detects cyber threats from Twitter tweets.
problem Time-consuming manual extraction of cyber threat intelligence.
method Novelty detection model trained on CVE data.
result F1-score of 0.643 for classifying cyber threat tweets.
Improving Network Threat Detection by Knowledge Graph, Large Language Model, and Imbalanced Learningcs.LG
Enhanced network threat detection using KG, LLM, and imbalanced learning.
problem Challenges in network threat detection due to complex attack patterns and limited historical data.
method Integrated framework combining Knowledge Graph, Imbalanced Learning, and Large Language Model.
result Improved threat capture rate by 3%-4% and increased interpretability of risk predictions.
As algorithms are increasingly used to make important decisions that affect human lives, ranging from social benefit assignment to predicting risk of criminal recidivism, concerns have been raised about the fairness of algorithmic decision making. Most prior works on algorithmic fairness normatively prescribe how fair …
New metrics improve fairness in risk assessments.
problem Risk assessments reflect historical policies, not future decisions.
method Counterfactual analogues of metrics, doubly robust estimation.
result Fairness metrics under counterfactuals can differ from standard metrics.
Network detection is an important capability in many areas of applied research in which data can be represented as a graph of entities and relationships. Oftentimes the object of interest is a relatively small subgraph in an enormous, potentially uninteresting background. This aspect characterizes network detection as …
Machine learning algorithms are increasingly involved in sensitive decision-making process with adversarial implications on individuals. This paper presents mdfa, an approach that identifies the characteristics of the victims of a classifier's discrimination. We measure discrimination as a violation of multi-differenti…
InsectUp: Crowdsourcing Insect Observations to Assess Demographic Shifts and Improve Classificationcs.CV
Insects play such a crucial role in ecosystems that a shift in demography of just a few species can have devastating consequences at environmental, social and economic levels. Despite this, evaluation of insect demography is strongly limited by the difficulty of collecting census data at sufficient scale. We propose a …
Develops a method to quantify racial bias in law enforcement systems.
problem Quantify racial bias in law enforcement systems considering criminality and multi-stage interactions.
method Multi-stage causal framework incorporating criminality.
result Identifies three canonical scenarios of racial bias in law enforcement.
We improve image perturbation defenses using a better-defined Wasserstein threat model.
problem Real-world image perturbations are not pixel-independent, unlike threat models.
method We rectify flaws in the Wasserstein threat model and explore stronger attacks and defenses.
result Current Wasserstein-robust models are ineffective against real-world perturbations.
Data Plagiarism Index: Characterizing the Privacy Risk of Data-Copying in Tabular Generative Modelscs.LG
This paper introduces DPI, a new metric to assess data-copying risk in tabular data.
problem Measuring privacy risk of data-copying in tabular generative models.
method Proposes Data Plagiarism Index (DPI) for evaluating data-copying risk.
result DPI identifies data-copying threats to tabular data models, highlighting privacy and fairness issues.
Inspection-L detects illicit cryptocurrency transactions using GNNs and self-supervised learning.
problem Detect illicit cryptocurrency transactions for anti-money laundering.
method Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework based on self-supervised Deep Graph Infomax (DGI) and Graph Isomorphism Network (GIN) with supervised learning algorithms.
result Inspection-L outperforms state-of-the-art methods in key classification metrics.
Deep Learning for Unsupervised Insider Threat Detection in Structured Cybersecurity Data Streamscs.NE
Analysis of an organization's computer network activity is a key component of early detection and mitigation of insider threat, a growing concern for many organizations. Raw system logs are a prototypical example of streaming data that can quickly scale beyond the cognitive power of a human analyst. As a prospective fi…
This paper analyzes privacy threats in federated matrix factorization.
problem Privacy threats in federated matrix factorization models.
method Categorizes federated matrix factorization into three types and analyzes privacy threats.
result This is the first study of privacy threats in federated matrix factorization.
New method defends against unseen threat models using perceptual adversarial training.
problem Lack of precise mathematical characterization of human perception in adversarial attacks.
method Adversarial training against the set of all imperceptible adversarial examples approximated by deep neural networks.
result Perceptual Adversarial Training (PAT) achieves state-of-the-art robustness against multiple diverse adversarial attacks.
In this paper, we provide an integrated systems modeling approach to analyzing global externalities from a microeconomic perspective. Various forms of policy (fiscal, monetary, etc.) have addressed flaws and market failures in models, but few have been able to successfully eliminate modern externalities that remain an …
This article reviews recent advances in secure distributed and decentralized inference and learning against Byzantine threats.
problem Securing distributed and decentralized inference and learning against malicious attacks.
method Review of recent algorithmic approaches under Byzantine threat model.
result A plethora of robust algorithmic approaches have been developed.
Machine learning improves risk assessment for gender-based violence victims.
problem Accurately predicting recidivism risk in gender-based crime victims.
method Applied machine learning techniques to create models predicting recidivism risk.
result Proposed ML method outperforms classical statistical methods.
The paper reconciles two conflicting fairness criteria in algorithmic risk scores.
problem How to reconcile calibration and equal error rates in algorithmic risk scores.
method Derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of calibrated scores achieving equal error rates, then present an algorithm to find the most accurate score subject to both criteria.
result The method can eliminate error disparities while maintaining calibration and improve profit in credit lending.
This paper uses deep learning to improve network threat detection in finance.
problem Detecting unknown threats in large-scale data applications.
method Uses deep learning for advanced threat detection.
result Improves protective measures in the financial industry.
Study identifies and measures biases in legal case data.
problem Addressing representation biases and sentencing disparities in legal case data.
method Utilizes two regression models: a baseline and a fair judge model.
result Quantifies biases across demographic groups in criminal data from Cook County (Illinois).
Proposes a falsification framework to test algorithmic discriminant validity.
problem Unintended model behavior in predictive algorithms.
method Falsification framework based on statistical tests comparing prediction losses across outcomes.
result Establishes discriminant validity for some outcomes but not others.
ScoreAG generates unrestricted adversarial images maintaining semantic integrity.
problem Limited robustness evaluations due to -norm constraints.
method Score-Based Adversarial Generation (ScoreAG) using score-based generative models.
result ScoreAG improves robustness assessments across multiple benchmarks.
Proposes a test to ensure predictive algorithms predict intended outcomes better than unintended ones.
problem Unintended model behavior leading to prediction of unintended outcomes.
method Falsification framework using nonparametric hypothesis testing to compare prediction losses across outcomes.
result Establishes discriminant validity with respect to gender but not race in an admissions setting.
Adversarial attacks have exposed a significant security vulnerability in state-of-the-art machine learning models. Among these models include deep reinforcement learning agents. The existing methods for attacking reinforcement learning agents assume the adversary either has access to the target agent's learned paramete…
New approach detects and ranks novel and developing cyber threats in Twitter.
problem Detecting and ranking novel and developing cyber threats in Twitter streams.
method Unsupervised machine learning approach focusing on novelty and trendiness.
result Ranking of cyber threat events based on importance score using extracted terms.
Does DeFi remove the need for trust? Evidence from a natural experiment in stablecoin lendingecon.GN
DeFi doesn't fully remove trust, showing run risk and personal character's importance.
problem The need for trust in DeFi despite its code-based approach.
method Natural experiment revealing identities of DeFi participants, including a criminal.
result DeFi doesn't fully remove trust, showing run risk and personal character's relevance.