Recidivism prediction instruments (RPI's) provide decision makers with an assessment of the likelihood that a criminal defendant will reoffend at a future point in time. While such instruments are gaining increasing popularity across the country, their use is attracting tremendous controversy. Much of the controversy c…
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48 results for “criminal recidivism”
Recidivism prediction instruments provide decision makers with an assessment of the likelihood that a criminal defendant will reoffend at a future point in time. While such instruments are gaining increasing popularity across the country, their use is attracting tremendous controversy. Much of the controversy concerns …
In Pursuit of Interpretable, Fair and Accurate Machine Learning for Criminal Recidivism Predictionstat.ML
Interpretable ML models predict recidivism as well as non-interpretable methods and are more fair.
problem Improving recidivism prediction models for fairness and interpretability.
method Trained interpretable ML models on two recidivism datasets, compared to existing methods, and analyzed fairness.
result Interpretable ML models can predict recidivism as well as non-interpretable methods and are more fair.
Recidivism prediction provides decision makers with an assessment of the likelihood that a criminal defendant will reoffend that can be used in pre-trial decision-making. It can also be used for prediction of locations where crimes most occur, profiles that are more likely to commit violent crimes. While such instrumen…
Machine learning algorithms are increasingly involved in sensitive decision-making process with adversarial implications on individuals. This paper presents mdfa, an approach that identifies the characteristics of the victims of a classifier's discrimination. We measure discrimination as a violation of multi-differenti…
Local discovery method uncovers direct unfairness in complex systems.
problem Identifying causal pathways of unfairness in complex domains.
method Local discovery for direct discrimination (LD3) method.
result LD3 returns a valid adjustment set (VAS) for assessing unfairness.
We study an online classification problem with partial feedback in which individuals arrive one at a time from a fixed but unknown distribution, and must be classified as positive or negative. Our algorithm only observes the true label of an individual if they are given a positive classification. This setting captures …
We propose definitions of fairness in machine learning and artificial intelligence systems that are informed by the framework of intersectionality, a critical lens arising from the Humanities literature which analyzes how interlocking systems of power and oppression affect individuals along overlapping dimensions inclu…
Non-discrimination is a recognized objective in algorithmic decision making. In this paper, we introduce a novel probabilistic formulation of data pre-processing for reducing discrimination. We propose a convex optimization for learning a data transformation with three goals: controlling discrimination, limiting distor…
Intersectionality is a framework that analyzes how interlocking systems of power and oppression affect individuals along overlapping dimensions including race, gender, sexual orientation, class, and disability. Intersectionality theory therefore implies it is important that fairness in artificial intelligence systems b…
We consider settings in which the right notion of fairness is not captured by simple mathematical definitions (such as equality of error rates across groups), but might be more complex and nuanced and thus require elicitation from individual or collective stakeholders. We introduce a framework in which pairs of individ…
As algorithms are increasingly used to make important decisions that affect human lives, ranging from social benefit assignment to predicting risk of criminal recidivism, concerns have been raised about the fairness of algorithmic decision making. Most prior works on algorithmic fairness normatively prescribe how fair …
Machine Learning Partners in Criminal Networksphysics.soc-ph
Machine learning predicts criminal networks' missing partnerships and future behavior.
problem Predicting and understanding criminal networks' properties and future behavior.
method Combining graph representation learning and machine learning methods.
result Outstanding accuracy in predicting missing criminal partnerships and future behavior.
Recidivism prediction scores are used across the USA to determine sentencing and supervision for hundreds of thousands of inmates. One such generator of recidivism prediction scores is Northpointe's Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) score, used in states like California and F…
Fairness measures fail in predictive settings that intentionally shift outcomes.
problem Fairness measures fail in performative prediction settings.
method Formalized concept shift and counterfactual outcomes.
result Predictors that are fair during training become unfair during deployment.
Complex statistical machine learning models are increasingly being used or considered for use in high-stakes decision-making pipelines in domains such as financial services, health care, criminal justice and human services. These models are often investigated as possible improvements over more classical tools such as r…
Where machine-learned predictive risk scores inform high-stakes decisions, such as bail and sentencing in criminal justice, fairness has been a serious concern. Recent work has characterized the disparate impact that such risk scores can have when used for a binary classification task. This may not account, however, fo…
Domestic violence (DV) is a global social and public health issue that is highly gendered. Being able to accurately predict DV recidivism, i.e., re-offending of a previously convicted offender, can speed up and improve risk assessment procedures for police and front-line agencies, better protect victims of DV, and pote…
New model detects hidden group structures in criminal networks.
problem Challenges in identifying group structures in criminal networks with noisy data.
method Developed an extended stochastic block model (ESBM) to infer group structures.
result Unveiled complex block structures in an Italian mafia network.
When might human input help (or not) when assessing risk in fairness domains? Dressel and Farid (2018) asked Mechanical Turk workers to evaluate a subset of defendants in the ProPublica COMPAS data for risk of recidivism, and concluded that COMPAS predictions were no more accurate or fair than predictions made by human…
Improving Fairness in Criminal Justice Algorithmic Risk Assessments Using Conformal Prediction Setsstat.AP
Paper uses conformal prediction sets to make criminal justice risk assessments fairer.
problem Fairness issues in criminal justice risk assessment algorithms.
method Adopting conformal prediction sets to remove unfairness from algorithms and covariates.
result Constructs confusion tables and measures fairness effectively free of racial differences.
Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform actions, such as medical treatments or release conditions, often with the aim of reduci…
Study disrupts Sicilian Mafia networks using data analysis.
problem Challenges in disrupting resilient criminal networks.
method Social Network Analysis methods applied to real-world datasets.
result Neutralizing only 5% of affiliates can disrupt network connectivity by 70%.
New debiasing methods for fine-tuned neural networks.
problem Bias in neural networks used for high-stakes decisions.
method Intra-processing methods designed for fine-tuned models.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of intra-processing methods across various datasets.
We investigate a long-debated question, which is how to create predictive models of recidivism that are sufficiently accurate, transparent, and interpretable to use for decision-making. This question is complicated as these models are used to support different decisions, from sentencing, to determining release on proba…
Objectives: Discussions of fairness in criminal justice risk assessments typically lack conceptual precision. Rhetoric too often substitutes for careful analysis. In this paper, we seek to clarify the tradeoffs between different kinds of fairness and between fairness and accuracy. Methods: We draw on the existing liter…
ProPublica's analysis of recidivism predictions produced by Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) software tool for the task, has shown that the predictions were racially biased against African American defendants. We analyze the COMPAS data using a causal reformulation of the un…
Proposes a robust method for counterfactual classification.
problem Decision-making under hypothetical scenarios.
method Doubly-robust nonparametric estimator for counterfactual classification.
result Robust against nuisance model misspecification, can attain fast rates.
We present new methods to estimate causal effects retrospectively from micro data with the assistance of a machine learning ensemble. This approach overcomes two important limitations in conventional methods like regression modeling or matching: (i) ambiguity about the pertinent retrospective counterfactuals and (ii) p…
Develops a method to quantify racial bias in law enforcement systems.
problem Quantify racial bias in law enforcement systems considering criminality and multi-stage interactions.
method Multi-stage causal framework incorporating criminality.
result Identifies three canonical scenarios of racial bias in law enforcement.
Machine learning improves risk assessment for gender-based violence victims.
problem Accurately predicting recidivism risk in gender-based crime victims.
method Applied machine learning techniques to create models predicting recidivism risk.
result Proposed ML method outperforms classical statistical methods.
Potential violent criminals will often need to go through a sequence of preparatory steps before they can execute their plans. During this escalation process police have the opportunity to evaluate the threat posed by such people through what they know, observe and learn from intelligence reports about their activities…
Develops a new criterion for subgroup fairness in algorithmic decision support.
problem Identifying fair recommendations in algorithms despite group-level differences.
method IJDI criterion and IJDI-Scan approach to detect and mitigate disparities.
result Identifies significant disparities in recommendations across subpopulations.
Inspection-L detects illicit cryptocurrency transactions using GNNs and self-supervised learning.
problem Detect illicit cryptocurrency transactions for anti-money laundering.
method Graph Neural Network (GNN) framework based on self-supervised Deep Graph Infomax (DGI) and Graph Isomorphism Network (GIN) with supervised learning algorithms.
result Inspection-L outperforms state-of-the-art methods in key classification metrics.
A new method assesses algorithmic fairness using game theory.
problem Evaluating algorithmic fairness without proprietary data.
method Cohort Shapley value, a game-theoretic approach.
result Identifies individual impact of protected attributes.
Framework for assessing fairness across similar predictive models.
problem Fairness in predictive models across different groups.
method Develops a framework for characterizing fairness over the set of good models under selective labels.
result Framework can replace or audit models for better fairness properties.
Study identifies and measures biases in legal case data.
problem Addressing representation biases and sentencing disparities in legal case data.
method Utilizes two regression models: a baseline and a fair judge model.
result Quantifies biases across demographic groups in criminal data from Cook County (Illinois).
Does DeFi remove the need for trust? Evidence from a natural experiment in stablecoin lendingecon.GN
DeFi doesn't fully remove trust, showing run risk and personal character's importance.
problem The need for trust in DeFi despite its code-based approach.
method Natural experiment revealing identities of DeFi participants, including a criminal.
result DeFi doesn't fully remove trust, showing run risk and personal character's relevance.
Black box machine learning models are currently being used for high stakes decision-making throughout society, causing problems throughout healthcare, criminal justice, and in other domains. People have hoped that creating methods for explaining these black box models will alleviate some of these problems, but trying t…
The paper assesses fairness in risk score models, focusing on epistemic value.
problem Fairness of risk score models in communicating uncertainty.
method Identified key fairness desiderata, developed metrics for quantitative assessment, and applied methodology in two case studies.
result Introduced a novel calibration error metric for meaningful comparisons between groups of different sizes.
Novel framework for Bayesian neural networks incorporating task-specific constraints.
problem Task-specific constraints in supervised model deployment.
method Introduces Output-Constrained BNN (OC-BNN) framework.
result OC-BNNs effectively incorporate prior expert knowledge and desiderata like safety and fairness.
Gamification enhances law enforcement training on terrorism financing.
problem Complex technologies limit engagement in fighting cyber-criminal activities.
method Combining learning and training methods with gamification.
result Participants show increased expertise and positive feedback.
Develops a fair relational model learning algorithm.
problem Fairness in machine learning models for relational data.
method Fair-A3SL, a fairness-aware structure learning algorithm for relational structures.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in learning fair, interpretable, and expressive structures.
Paper predicts crimes using historical data and machine learning.
problem Predicting and preventing crime activities.
method Supervised learning with decision tree, k-nearest neighbor, Random Forest, and Adaboost algorithms.
result The system predicts crimes with better accuracy using historical data.
Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that features a distributed, decentralized and trustworthy mechanism, which has made Bitcoin a popular global transaction platform. The transaction efficiency among nations and the privacy benefiting from address anonymity of the Bitcoin network have attracted many activities such as payment…
Develops tools to audit ML models for bias and unfairness.
problem Auditing ML models for individual bias and unfairness.
method Formalizes the task as an optimization problem and develops inferential tools for the optimal value.
result Demonstrates the utility of tools in revealing biases in COMPAS recidivism prediction instrument.
NFT Wash Trading Detectionq-fin.GN
AnChain.AI detects NFT wash trading with 0.14% of transactions flagged.
problem NFT market manipulation through wash trading.
method Algorithm flags transactions within 30 days of repurchase.
result 0.14% of NFT transactions are involved in wash trading.
Network analysis helps prevent money laundering by identifying risky clients and suspicious clusters.
problem Preventing money laundering using social network analysis.
method Real-world data analysis, network metrics, predictive models, visual analysis.
result Risk profiles can be predicted using social network metrics.