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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,181 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for crime series

Predictive policing models can be biased by differential crime reporting rates.

problem Bias in predictive policing models due to differential crime reporting.
method Simulation based on Bogotá, Colombia's victimization and crime reporting data.
result Differential crime reporting rates can lead to misallocation of police patrols.

The paper introduces a US crime index to assess financial losses from property and cyber crimes.

problem Lack of indices evaluating crime's financial impact on investments.
method Developed an index-based insurance portfolio using FBI financial losses data.
result Real estate, ransomware, and government impersonation are major risk contributors.

Paper aims to use AI for detecting financial crimes, focusing on money laundering.

problem Financial institutions need better technologies to detect and predict financial crimes.
method Study recent works, develop a novel model for money laundering detection.
result Demonstrates a model for detecting money laundering cases with minimal human intervention.

Accurate real time crime prediction is a fundamental issue for public safety, but remains a challenging problem for the scientific community. Crime occurrences depend on many complex factors. Compared to many predictable events, crime is sparse. At different spatio-temporal scales, crime distributions display dramatica…

2017-07-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Model predicts crime distribution in real-time, superior to existing methods.

problem Accurate real-time crime forecasting is difficult due to sparse and weak historical data.
method Adapted spatial temporal residual network to predict crime distribution in Los Angeles.
result The proposed model outperforms existing approaches in crime prediction accuracy.

Paper develops a non-parametric model to estimate influence networks in high-dimensional time series.

problem Estimating influence networks in high-dimensional time series with many variables.
method Non-parametric sparse additive model (SpAM) using β and φ-mixing properties of Markov chains and empirical process techniques for RKHSs.
result Sharp upper bounds on mean-squared error for estimating influence networks.

The study improves crime prediction using Foursquare and streetlight data with demographic info.

problem Improving crime prediction models using diverse data sources.
method Combining Foursquare and streetlight data with demographic info for crime prediction.
result The proposed model enhances classification performance in crime prediction.

Predictive policing systems are increasingly used to determine how to allocate police across a city in order to best prevent crime. Discovered crime data (e.g., arrest counts) are used to help update the model, and the process is repeated. Such systems have been empirically shown to be susceptible to runaway feedback l…

2017-06-29abs ↗pdf ↗

New approach predicts crime and terrorism events with high accuracy and transparency.

problem Predicting crime and terrorism events with high accuracy and interpretability.
method Granger Network inference for local transport rules learning.
result Achieved AUC of ~90% for crime predictions and ~80% for terrorism predictions.

CRIMED optimizes regret in bandits with unbounded stochastic corruption.

problem Minimizing regret in bandits with arbitrary unbounded corruptions.
method Introduces CRIMED, an asymptotically-optimal algorithm for Gaussian distributions with known variance.
result Achieves exact lower bound on regret for Gaussian distributions with high corruption probability.

Paper proposes a federated graph learning platform to improve financial crime detection.

problem Current financial crime detection methods are ineffective and costly.
method Federated graph learning platform combining federated learning and graph learning.
result Federated model outperforms local model by 20%.

Method predicts crime hotspots with high resolution.

problem Forecasting sparse spatiotemporal events like crime.
method Combines RKHS methods with autoregressive smoothing kernels.
result Significantly outperforms baseline models for sparse events.

A novel unsupervised method detects anomalies in time series data robust to warping.

problem Detecting anomalies in time series data is challenging due to warping and lack of labeled data.
method WaRTEm-AD method operates in two stages: representation learning through autoencoders and anomaly detection on learned representations.
result WaRTEm-AD effectively detects both point and sequence anomalies in time series data.

Paper explores how unsupervised learning reduces financial crime risks.

problem Identifying high-risk financial groups from complex data.
method Combines clustering and dimensionality reduction techniques.
result KPCA outperforms other techniques in reducing financial crime risks.

Nested model averaging improves high-dimensional linear regression performance.

problem High-dimensional linear regression with predictor ordering impact.
method Combining model averaging with regularized estimators on the solution path.
result Nested model averaging with lasso and SLOPE outperforms competing methods.

New model helps identify suspect footwear from crime scene prints.

problem Identifying a suspect's footwear from crime scene prints among thousands of similar shoes.
method Developed a hierarchical Bayesian model with spatially varying coefficients.
result Improved accuracy and reliability in forensic shoe print analysis.

This thesis evaluates the quality of binary classification models in crime forecasting tools.

problem Quality assessment of binary classification models in crime forecasting tools.
method Binary classifier approach to evaluate AUCAUC and PPVkPPV_k.
result The PPVkPPV_k deviates significantly from AUCAUC in crime forecasting models.

We propose an efficient method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic spatial models.

problem Computational demands and restrictive assumptions in existing doubly-stochastic spatial models.
method Penalized regression method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic point processes.
result Consistency and asymptotic normality of the covariate effect estimates achieved despite model misspecification.

We observe standard transfer learning can improve prediction accuracies of target tasks at the cost of lowering their prediction fairness -- a phenomenon we named discriminatory transfer. We examine prediction fairness of a standard hypothesis transfer algorithm and a standard multi-task learning algorithm, and show th…

2017-07-03abs ↗pdf ↗

New framework models time-uncertain point processes for better event prediction.

problem Uncertainty in event times in point processes.
method Formulated and discretized continuous-time Hawkes processes with time grid, enabling optimization methods for inference.
result Parameter recovery with O(1/k)O(1/k) convergence rate using gradient descent and VI.

The paper proposes a machine learning framework for detecting DeFi fraud across multiple blockchain chains.

problem Early detection of financial crimes in decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems.
method Extracting features from different blockchain chains, employing XGBoost and Neural Network for fraud detection.
result Introduction of novel DeFi-related features significantly improves fraud detection accuracy.

Model infers functions for attributes using multi-aggregate datasets with knowledge transfer.

problem Modeling aggregate data with varying granularities and spatial supports.
method Multi-output Gaussian process (MoGP) with linear mixing of independent latent GPs, aggregation process, and prior distribution of mixing weights.
result Proposed model outperforms in refining coarse-grained aggregate data.

Maximal correlation framework improves fairness in machine learning algorithms.

problem Ensuring fairness in machine learning algorithms.
method Introducing maximal correlation framework for fairness constraints and deriving regularizers.
result The approach provides smooth performance-fairness tradeoff curves and competitive performance.

We present a novel subset scan method to detect if a probabilistic binary classifier has statistically significant bias -- over or under predicting the risk -- for some subgroup, and identify the characteristics of this subgroup. This form of model checking and goodness-of-fit test provides a way to interpretably detec…

2016-11-24abs ↗pdf ↗

A deep neural network framework for forecasting sparse spatio-temporal data.

problem Forecasting sparse spatio-temporal data with real-time interactions.
method Coupling self-exciting point process and graph structured recurrent neural network.
result More accurate real-time forecasting of crime and traffic data.

Insider trading is one of the numerous white collar crimes that can contribute to the instability of the economy. Traditionally, the detection of illegal insider trades has been a human-driven process. In this paper, we collect the insider tradings made available by the US Securities and Exchange Commissions (SEC) thro…

2017-02-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes SOTL framework for improving transfer learning accuracy and efficiency.

problem Statistical bias and computational efficiency in multi-source domain adaptation.
method Sparse Optimization for Transfer Learning (SOTL) with L0-regularization.
result SOTL significantly improves estimation accuracy and computational speed, especially under adversarial conditions.

An evolutionary algorithm separates mixed DNA profiles in forensic genetics.

problem Deconvolving mixed DNA profiles from crime samples.
method Multiple population evolutionary algorithm (MEA) with guided mutation.
result The MEA successfully deconvoluted DNA profiles from crime samples.