The insufficient understanding of the credit network structure was recognized as a key factor for regulators' underestimation of the destructive systematic risk during the financial crisis that started in 2007. The existing credit network research either took a macro perspective to clarify the topological properties of…
Study uses neural networks to predict credit risk in banks.
problem Credit risk management in commercial banks.
method Backpropagation neural network model.
result Neural network model improves credit risk prediction.
We present a new approach to understanding credit relationships between commercial banks and quoted firms, and with this approach, examine the temporal change in the structure of the Japanese credit network from 1980 to 2005. At each year, the credit network is regarded as a weighted bipartite graph where edges corresp…
NetDP predicts loan defaults using network data, addressing cold-start issues.
problem Cold-start problem in default prediction for new users.
method Combines unsupervised and supervised network representations, using parameter-server for scalability.
result Effectiveness in cold-start problem, especially for new users.
CCR-CNN uses CNN to predict corporate credit ratings from financial data.
problem Lack of data and limited model performance in predicting corporate credit ratings.
method Transform corporations into images and use CNN to analyze complex feature interactions.
result CCR-CNN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting corporate credit ratings.
New algorithm assesses credit risk in multilayer networks over time.
problem Quantifying evolving credit risk in complex, interconnected networks.
method Personalized PageRank algorithm for multilayer networks.
result Credit risk evolves and propagates through multilayer networks over time.
Paper examines constraints on cryptocurrency networks to improve liquidity and capital costs.
problem Improving liquidity in cryptocurrency networks with limited capital deposits.
method Introduces constraints to bound loss in default scenarios and simplifies network structure.
result Achieves optimal tradeoff between liquidity and capital costs in payment networks.
Big data from phone calls improves credit scoring models and profits.
problem Improving credit scoring models to enhance financial inclusion.
method Combining call-detail records and traditional data to build scorecards using social network analytics.
result Combining call-detail records with traditional data significantly increases model performance and profit.
Study evaluates neural networks for corporate credit rating assessment.
problem Improving machine learning algorithms for credit assessment.
method Analysis of four neural network architectures (MLP, CNN, CNN2D, LSTM) on financial data from energy, financial, and healthcare sectors.
result LSTM architecture consistently outperforms others in predicting corporate credit ratings.
This paper uses graph neural networks to predict SME default risk using transaction and ownership networks.
problem Predicting credit risk for SMEs facing limited financial histories and collateral constraints.
method Graph Neural Networks applied to multilayer network data of SME transactions and ownership.
result Combining network data with traditional data improves credit scoring and models contagion risk.
KACDP model improves credit default prediction with enhanced interpretability.
problem Insufficient interpretability and limited performance in credit default prediction.
method Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) for handling complex multi-dimensional data.
result KACDP model outperforms mainstream models in performance metrics.
We model a network economy with three sectors: downstream firms, upstream firms, and banks. Agents are linked by productive and credit relationships so that the behavior of one agent influences the behavior of the others through network connections. Credit interlinkages among agents are a source of bankruptcy diffusion…
We detect the backbone of the weighted bipartite network of the Japanese credit market relationships. The backbone is detected by adapting a general method used in the investigation of weighted networks. With this approach we detect a backbone that is statistically validated against a null hypothesis of uniform diversi…
Credit networks represent a way of modeling trust between entities in a network. Nodes in the network print their own currency and trust each other for a certain amount of each other's currency. This allows the network to serve as a decentralized payment infrastructure---arbitrary payments can be routed through the net…
Paper uses LightGBM for mobile user credit assessment.
problem Improving credit evaluation methods for communication operators.
method Data preprocessing, feature engineering, multiple machine learning models integration.
result Established a suitable fusion model for operator user credit evaluation.
EWS-GCN improves credit scoring by analyzing money transfer connections.
problem Improving credit scoring in transactional banking data.
method Edge Weight-Shared Graph Convolutional Network (EWS-GCN) combining graph and recurrent neural networks.
result EWS-GCN outperforms state-of-the-art models in credit scoring.
New method uses VAEs to generate financial correlation matrices for credit portfolio VaR analysis.
problem Quantifying credit portfolio sensitivity to asset correlations.
method Employing Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) to generate synthetic financial correlation matrices.
result The VAE latent space captures crucial factors impacting portfolio diversification, especially in credit portfolio sensitivity to asset correlations.
Measurement and management of credit concentration risk is critical for banks and relevant for micro-prudential requirements. While several methods exist for measuring credit concentration risk within institutions, the systemic effect of different institutions' exposures to the same counterparties has been less explore…
This work explores the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose links distributions approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks balance sheets from information of network connectivity. By varying the parameters for the creation of the network, several interbank networks are built, in which …
An analysis of the Japanese credit market in 2004 between banks and quoted firms is done in this paper using the tools of the networks theory. It can be pointed out that: (i) a backbone of the credit channel emerges, where some links play a crucial role; (ii) big banks privilege long-term contracts; the "minimal spanni…
Selective neural network improves credit risk prediction while maintaining interpretability.
problem Improving credit risk prediction accuracy while maintaining interpretability for financial regulators.
method Introducing a neural network with a selective option to distinguish between linear and non-linear datasets.
result For most datasets, logistic regression is sufficient and interpretable, while for specific data portions, a shallow neural network model provides better accuracy.
Paper proposes a method to evaluate SME credit risk using meta paths.
problem Evaluate credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises with limited data.
method Exploits the representative power of information networks and meta paths to infer SME financial status.
result Meta path feature effectively identifies SMEs with credit risks.
Deep learning improves credit risk assessment without new data.
problem Improving credit risk assessment in banking without new data.
method Sequential deep learning using temporal convolutional networks.
result Sequential deep learning outperformed tree-based models in credit risk assessment.
Credit risk modelling is an integral part of the global financial system. While there has been great attention paid to neural network models for credit default prediction, such models often lack the required interpretation mechanisms and measures of the uncertainty around their predictions. This work develops and compa…
We present an analysis of the credit market of Japan. The analysis is performed by investigating the bipartite network of banks and firms which is obtained by setting a link between a bank and a firm when a credit relationship is present in a given time window. In our investigation we focus on a community detection alg…
This study compares neural networks, SVM, and decision trees for corporate credit rating predictions.
problem Predicting corporate credit ratings using machine learning methods.
method Applied four machine learning techniques (Bagged Decision Trees, Random Forest, SVM, MLP) to credit rating datasets.
result Decision tree-based models outperformed other techniques in terms of 'Notch Distance' measure.
The European sovereign debt crisis has impaired many European banks. The distress on the European banks may transmit worldwide, and result in a large-scale knock-on default of financial institutions. This study presents a computer simulation model to analyze the risk of insolvency of banks and defaults in a bank credit…
Graph neural networks improve SME credit risk assessment.
problem Improving credit risk assessment for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
method Graph neural networks were used to model the relationships between financial indicators of enterprises, creating a graph structure and embedding representations for credit risk prediction.
result The proposed model accurately predicts enterprise credit levels, demonstrating robustness and effectiveness.
Companies do not operate in a vacuum. As companies move towards an increasingly specialized production function and their reach is becoming truly global, their aptitude in managing and shaping their inter-organizational network is a determining factor in measuring their health. Current models of company financial healt…
A model explains credit assignment in deep learning networks.
problem Understanding how deep learning assigns credit to parameters.
method Mean-field learning model with ensembles of sub-networks.
result Synaptic connections can be categorized into three types.
The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly triggering each other through contagion. Although credit default swaps have radical…
Model clarifies network effects on CVA, revealing significant differences in derivative contract values.
problem Network effects on CVA in financial contracts.
method Developed a model to analyze default probabilities in a network of contracts.
result Network effects can significantly alter CVA values, leading to multi-modal distributions.
This paper proposes a deep learning model combining CNN and Transformer for improved credit default prediction.
problem Traditional machine learning models struggle with complex financial data and risk patterns.
method Combines CNN for local feature extraction and Transformer for global dependency modeling.
result The CNN+Transformer model outperforms traditional models in accuracy, AUC, and KS value.
The paper compares ML models for credit scoring and investment decisions using explainable AI.
problem The opacity of machine learning models in financial services.
method Comparison of various machine learning models (single classifiers, ensembles, neural networks) and explainability techniques (LIME, SHAP).
result Ensemble classifiers and neural networks outperform in credit scoring models.
Model predicts loan default risk using dynamic multilayer graph neural networks.
problem Credit risk assessment through borrower connections.
method Dynamic multilayer graph neural network with attention mechanism.
result Attention mechanism improves model performance.
Paper proposes a framework for precise daily default risk prediction of Chinese credit bonds.
problem Inadequate and inaccurate bond information disclosure creates risk of default for investors.
method Framework includes summarizing factors impacting defaults, constructing a risk index system, and using ConvLSTM neural network for prediction.
result The model provides more responsive and accurate daily default risk predictions than authoritative ratings.
The article compares neural networks and logistic regression for credit scoring and introduces a new probability calibration technique.
problem Improving credit scoring accuracy using machine learning techniques.
method Comparison of logistic regression and neural networks, feature importance assessment, temporal feature inclusion, and SURE probability calibration.
result Neural networks can slightly improve credit scoring performance, and SURE calibration technique enhances probability calibration.
TransCORALNet uses transformer and CORAL for supply chain credit assessment with cold start.
problem Supply chain credit assessment for new borrowers with limited data.
method Two-stream transformer CORAL networks with domain adaptation and LIME.
result TransCORALNet outperforms state-of-the-art models in accuracy.
We propose a novel approach and an empirical procedure to test direct contagion of growth rate in a trade credit network of firms. Our hypotheses are that the use of trade credit contributes to contagion (from many customers to a single supplier - "many to one" contagion) and amplification (through their interaction wi…
Using particle system methodologies we study the propagation of financial distress in a network of firms facing credit risk. We investigate the phenomenon of a credit crisis and quantify the losses that a bank may suffer in a large credit portfolio. Applying a large deviation principle we compute the limiting distribut…
CaT-GNN improves credit card fraud detection by integrating causal reasoning into GNNs.
problem Credit card fraud detection overlooks causal structure of transactions.
method CaT-GNN combines causal invariant learning and temporal graph neural networks.
result CaT-GNN outperforms existing methods on various datasets.
AI improves credit rating predictions over traditional methods.
problem Improving credit rating predictions for global corporate entities.
method Applying deep learning techniques, specifically neural networks with categorical embeddings, to a large dataset of corporate obligations.
result Deep learning models achieve adequate accuracy in predicting different credit rating classes.
Proposes a new neural network approach to credit assignment.
problem Credit assignment problem in deep neural networks.
method Contrastive similarity matching objective function.
result Deep networks learn to match similarity between layers.
Paper finds political networks reduce bond issuance costs in China.
problem The financial value of within-government political networks in China.
method Using municipal leaders' working experience to measure political networks, the study examines the effect on bond issuance yield spreads.
result Political networks reduce bond issuance yield spreads by improving issuer credit ratings, especially in less developed financial markets.
Paper introduces Cycles Protocol to integrate trade credit into market clearing.
problem Liquidity embedded in trade credit outside formal settlement infrastructures.
method Distributed, multilateral clearing mechanism based on double-entry accounting.
result Cycles Protocol maximizes balance sheet compression without redistributing counterparty risk.
The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network of exposures among banks. A potential loss distribution is obtained through a m…
Study combines quantum and classical deep learning for better credit risk assessment.
problem Enhancing accuracy and efficiency in credit risk evaluation.
method Hybrid Quantum-Classical Deep Neural Network for Row-Type Dependent Predictive Analysis.
result Proposed framework enhances predictive models for different loan categories.
Agent-based simulation assesses tradable credit schemes for congestion reduction.
problem Simplistic modeling of TCS impacts in transportation research.
method Agent- and activity-based simulation framework within SimMobility.
result TCS stabilizes network and market performance over time, reducing congestion.