Detects potential local adversarial examples to prevent fraud in credit insurance decisions.
problem Manipulating variables to gain unfair advantages in credit decisions.
method Provides critical features to a human expert to detect and control potential fraud.
result Demonstrates a method to identify and mitigate local adversarial examples.
In this paper we propose a general framework for modeling an insurance liability cash flow in continuous time, by generalizing the reduced-form framework for credit risk and life insurance. In particular, we assume a nontrivial dependence structure between the reference filtration and the insurance internal filtration.…
The paper develops a filtering framework for estimating hazard rates with jumps in financial and insurance applications.
problem Estimating hazard rates with unobservable change-points in financial and insurance contexts.
method Continuous-time filtering framework using progressive enlargement of filtration, stochastic differential equations, and sensitivity analysis.
result Explicit formula for survival probability conditional on partial information.
Model shows IRS procedure for health insurance tax credits can diverge, proposing a new bisection method.
problem IRS procedure for calculating health insurance tax credits diverges for some self-employed taxpayers.
method Proposed a bisection procedure to calculate appropriate premium tax credits for tax returns.
result The bisection procedure can calculate appropriate premium tax credits for a model of simple tax returns.
In these notes, we present some methods and applications of large deviations to finance and insurance. We begin with the classical ruin problem related to the Cramer's theorem and give en extension to an insurance model with investment in stock market. We then describe how large deviation approximation and importance s…
In this paper we introduce a sublinear conditional expectation with respect to a family of possibly nondominated probability measures on a progressively enlarged filtration. In this way, we extend the classic reduced-form setting for credit and insurance markets to the case under model uncertainty, when we consider a f…
This paper studies an optimal investment and risk control problem for an insurer with default contagion and regime-switching. The insurer in our model allocates his/her wealth across multi-name defaultable stocks and a riskless bond under regime-switching risk. Default events have an impact on the distress state of the…
We study insolvency cascades in an interbank system when banks are allowed to insure their loans with credit default swaps (CDS) sold by other banks. We show that, by properly shifting financial exposures from one institution to another, a CDS market can be designed to rewire the network of interbank exposures in a way…
Extends martingale theory to non-monotone information in jump processes.
problem Non-monotone information dynamics in financial and insurance applications.
method Develops a general theory of martingale representations for non-monotone filtrations.
result Introduces a symmetric counterpart to martingale representations that quantifies information loss.
We consider a market model where there are two levels of information. The public information generated by the financial assets, and a larger flow of information that contains additional knowledge about a random time. This random time can represent many economic and financial settings, such as the default time of a firm…
Deep learning text embeddings improve fraud detection in healthcare insurance.
problem Improving fraud detection in healthcare insurance claims.
method Proposed deep learning architectures for text embeddings.
result Our approach outperforms other methods in detecting fraudulent claims.
Proposes a fix for IRS calculation of Obamacare tax credits.
problem IRS iteration leads to divergent sequences for some self-employed taxpayers.
method Introduces a bisection procedure to calculate premium tax credits.
result Bisection procedure works for simple tax returns and those receiving credits in advance.
The paper analyzes log-optimal portfolios in markets with random time events.
problem Analyzing log-optimal portfolios in markets with random events.
method Examined a market model with two information flows, F and G, and addressed log-optimal portfolio existence and sensitivity.
result Identified necessary and sufficient conditions for log-optimal portfolio existence, types of risks induced by random time, and factors affecting sensitivity.
Optimal dividend strategy for insurance group with contagious default risk.
problem Optimal dividend strategy for a multi-line insurance group with default contagion.
method Analysis of recursive system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman variational inequalities (HJBVIs).
result Optimal dividend strategy is still of the barrier type, and optimal barrier is modulated by default state.
Using an extended version of the credit risk model CreditRisk+, we develop a flexible framework with numerous applications amongst which we find stochastic mortality modelling, forecasting of death causes as well as profit and loss modelling of life insurance and annuity portfolios which can be used in (partial) intern…
We consider a financial contract that delivers a single cash flow given by the terminal value of a cumulative gains process. The problem of modelling and pricing such an asset and associated derivatives is important, for example, in the determination of optimal insurance claims reserve policies, and in the pricing of r…
Paper introduces a new model for cyber insurance pricing.
problem Inaccurate pricing of cyber insurance due to multiple, contagious losses.
method Developed a bivariate compound dynamic contagion process.
result Analytical expressions for the compound process and its moments.
Optimal annuitization strategy depends on age, labor income, and mortality risk.
problem Maximizing utility from consumption and labor income under age-dependent mortality.
method Dynamic programming approach to derive closed-form solutions.
result Post-retirement labor income acts as a substitute for annuitization.
We introduce an additive stochastic mortality model which allows joint modelling and forecasting of underlying death causes. Parameter families for mortality trends can be chosen freely. As model settings become high dimensional, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. We then link our propose…
The paper examines the unexpected losses and risk ratios for co-monotonic alternatives in large portfolios.
problem Understanding the unexpected losses and risk ratios for large portfolios with co-monotonic alternatives.
method Analyzes the asymptotic behavior of unexpected losses and risk ratios for co-monotonic alternatives using monotone cash-additive risk measures and Choquet insurance premia.
result Unexpected losses of large weighted portfolios are of order o(nλn), where λn is the average weight. Paper presents a novel time series clustering algorithm for financial inclusion.
problem Difficulty in understanding consumer financial behavior without restrictive credit scoring.
method Developed a novel time series clustering algorithm.
result Allows institutions to offer unique financial products based on customer needs.
Paper introduces a synthetic ALM model for life insurance, evaluating SCR with interest rate shocks.
problem Evaluating Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) in life insurance with interest rate shocks.
method Developed a synthetic ALM model that considers market and book values, crediting rates, and bond investments. Evaluated SCR using the standard formula.
result The choice of interest rate model is crucial for meaningful SCR evaluation after regulatory shocks.
Enhances credit card limit adjustments by considering treatment uncertainty and prediction criteria.
problem Optimal treatment selection under multitreatment scenarios.
method Proposes a comprehensive methodology incorporating conditional value-at-risk and prediction criterion for continuous outcomes.
result Significantly improved policy performance in credit card limit adjustments.
The paper studies value adjustments and dynamic hedging for reinsurance counterparty risk.
problem Reinsurance counterparty credit risk (RCCR) and its impact on insurance companies.
method A novel model accounting for contagion effects, characterized value adjustment via PIDE, derived hedging strategies using quadratic method.
result Dynamic hedging strategies can significantly reduce reinsurance counterparty risk.
This paper considers general term structure models like the ones appearing in portfolio credit risk modelling or life insurance. We give a general model starting from families of forward rates driven by infinitely many Brownian motions and an integer-valued random measure, generalizing existing approaches in the litera…
This paper investigates dividend optimization of an insurance corporation under a more realistic model which takes into consideration refinancing or capital injections. The model follows the compound Poisson framework with credit interest for positive reserve, and debit interest for negative reserve. Ruin occurs when t…
The paper analyzes log-optimal and numéraire portfolios in market models stopped at random times.
problem Analyzing portfolios in market models stopped at random times.
method Progressive enlargement of flow of information with the random stopping time, studying log-optimal and numéraire portfolios.
result Computations of log-optimal and numéraire portfolios described in terms of observable parameters.
Paper defines new risk measures for elliptical distributions.
problem Risk measurement for elliptical distributions.
method DTM, DTS, DTK definitions and formula derivation for specific distributions.
result Explicit formulas for DTE, DTV, DTS, and DTK for various distributions.
New models reduce bias in machine learning for credit risk.
problem Bias in machine learning models for credit risk analysis.
method Sum Product Networks (SPNs) to identify and remove independent variables.
result Significant reduction in disparate treatment of male and female applicants.
Predictive models are increasingly deployed for the purpose of determining access to services such as credit, insurance, and employment. Despite potential gains in productivity and efficiency, several potential problems have yet to be addressed, particularly the potential for unintentional discrimination. We present an…
This paper stidies the first passage times to constant boundaries for mixed-exponential jump diffusion processes. Explicit solutions of the Laplace transforms of the distribution of the first passage times, the joint distribution of the first passage times and undershoot (overshoot) are obtained. As applications, we pr…
This paper optimizes callable credit default swap valuation under Lévy drawdown risk.
problem Optimizing the valuation of callable credit default swaps under drawdown risk.
method Using Lévy processes with downward jumps, the paper solves the optimal stopping problem for the buyer's expected value.
result Explicit results for the value function are derived using excursion theory and martingale methods.
Study insurance pricing under correlation ambiguity without increasing prices or reducing utility.
problem Understanding the dependence structure between insurance and financial risks.
method Dynamic equilibrium analysis of insurance pricing with worst-case beliefs.
result Correlation ambiguity does not necessarily increase insurance prices or reduce insurers' utility.
Paper proves Pareto efficient insurance for multiple entities.
problem Optimizing insurance for multiple policyholders and insurers.
method Sum-minimization characterization and pairwise implementability analysis.
result Characterization of Pareto efficient insurance arrangements.
Study on systemic risk in European insurance sector, showing insurer connections during stress.
problem Understanding systemic risk connectedness in European insurance sector.
method Common connectedness framework applied to returns, volatility, value-at-risk, and expected shortfall.
result Insurers are a significant component of systemic risk connectedness, especially during stress episodes.
The paper examines how risk reduction and insurance choices interact under convex premium principles.
problem Interaction between self-protection and insurance demand under convex premium principles.
method Investigates optimal prevention efforts and insurance shares using distortion risk measures.
result Self-protection and insurance are complementary, but ex ante moral hazard can turn this into a substitution effect.
Parametric insurance offers better risk-sharing in high-risk settings than traditional indemnity insurance.
problem High-risk environments where traditional indemnity insurance is unaffordable or ineffective.
method Comparison of excess-of-loss indemnity insurance and parametric insurance within a mean-variance framework, considering fixed costs and binding budget constraints.
result Parametric insurance yields higher welfare for risk-averse individuals, especially when indemnity insurance is impractical.
The paper examines insurance market dynamics and optimal regulation.
problem Equilibrium outcomes in dynamic insurance markets.
method Analyzes three equilibrium outcomes: positive, zero, and market failure.
result Insurers may accept underwriting losses by investing profits, especially with negative correlations.
We consider an investor who wants to select her/his optimal consumption, investment and insurance policies. Motivated by new insurance products, we allow not only the financial marke but also the insurable loss to depend on the regime of the economy. The objective of the investor is to maximize her/his expected total d…
Optimal insurance contract limits insurer's risk exposure variance.
problem Designing an optimal insurance contract limiting insurer's risk exposure variance.
method Derive optimal policy semi-analytically, focusing on actuarially fair case.
result Expected coverage is larger for wealthier insured, indicating normal good.
Paper models demand and solvency for index insurance, combining traditional and measurable index-based coverage.
problem Reducing protection gaps for emerging risks.
method Develops a model for demand and solvency conditions, combining traditional and index-based insurance.
result Deduces a product that benefits from both traditional and index-based insurance approaches.
Two pension funds mutually insure against longevity risk.
problem Mutual insurance against systematic longevity risk for pension funds.
method Mathematical demonstration and market clearing condition.
result Insurance provides little benefit when fund preferences are similar, but can be beneficial when preferences vary significantly.
Reinsurance can help life insurers maintain higher capital guarantees without losing utility.
problem Decreasing capital guarantees in life insurance products.
method Dynamic investment-reinsurance optimization problem with simultaneous Value-at-Risk and no-short-selling constraints. Introduced guarantee-equivalent utility gain for comparison.
result Optimally managed reinsurance allows insurers to offer higher capital guarantees without reducing expected utility.
The study examines how formal index insurance compares to informal risk sharing in managing natural disasters.
problem The challenges of natural disasters and the effectiveness of index insurance in risk management.
method A three-strategy evolutionary game model to analyze the competitive relationship between formal index insurance, informal risk sharing, and non-insurance.
result Basis risk and loss ratio significantly impact the adoption rate of index insurance, with different strategies preferred under varying conditions.
This paper explores how insurance contracts can be traded in financial markets.
problem The exclusion of arbitrage in insurance contracts due to their non-tradability.
method Defining strategies on insurance portfolios and combining them with financial trading strategies.
result The existence of an insurance-finance-consistent probability, leading to the expected discounted cash-flows.
Paper analyzes strategic underreporting in competitive insurance markets.
problem Strategic underreporting by insureds in competitive insurance markets.
method Develops a dynamic insurance market model with two competing companies and a continuum of insureds, examines the interaction between strategic underreporting and competitive pricing under a Bonus-Malus System framework.
result Establishes the existence and uniqueness of the insureds' optimal reporting barrier and its dependence on BMS premiums; proves the existence of Nash equilibrium premium strategies.
Study of insurer games with model uncertainty in reinsurance and investment strategies.
problem Model uncertainty and competitive insurers' performance under worst-case scenarios.
method Formulated robust mean-field game for non-linear system, derived closed-form solutions.
result Relative concerns lead to new hedging terms in investment and reinsurance strategies.
New model for insurance states using Markov jump processes with non-countable state space.
problem Modeling insurance states with non-countable state spaces.
method Developed a new Thiele's differential equation for continuous time rehabilitation rates.
result Allows for consistent calculation of reserves in disability insurance.