Model predicts crashes in rational expectation bubbles using percolation theory.
problem Predicting crashes in rational expectation bubbles.
method Micro-founded model based on percolation theory of trader networks.
result Estimates crash hazard rate via percolation clusters and power law.
Several authors have noticed the signature of log-periodic oscillations prior to large stock market crashes [cond-mat/9509033, cond-mat/9510036, Vandewalle et al 1998]. Unfortunately good fits of the corresponding equation to stock market prices are also observed in quiet times. To refine the method several approaches …
The Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with finite-time singular crash hazard rates has been developed to describe the dynamics of financial bubbles and crashes. It has been applied successfully to a large variety of financial bubbles in many different markets. Having been developed fo…
This paper extends FTPL algorithms for bandits beyond bounded hazard rate assumptions.
problem Adversarial multi-armed bandit problem with perturbations.
method Introduces new regret bounds for FTPL algorithms without bounded hazard rate assumption.
result Gaussian distribution leads to near optimal regret, up to logarithmic factors.
Study improves crash rate forecasting in Washington, D.C. using stochastic volatility model.
problem Forecasting crash rates in areas with irregular traffic patterns and exogenous events.
method Adopted a stochastic volatility model to capture heterogeneity and temporal instability.
result The stochastic volatility model outperforms conventional models in forecasting crash rates in Washington, D.C.
We study and generalize in various ways the model of rational expectation (RE) bubbles introduced by Blanchard and Watson in the economic literature. First, bubbles are argued to be the equivalent of Goldstone modes of the fundamental rational pricing equation, associated with the symmetry-breaking introduced by non-va…
Study examines aftershocks after currency crash, finding power law relaxation.
problem Analyzing aftershocks following a currency exchange rate crash.
method Case study of RUB/USD crash in 2014; power law relaxation and correlation analysis.
result Relaxation and correlation follow power laws, with aging and scaling observed.
Model predicts Bitcoin bubbles with network properties and LPPLS model.
problem Predicting Bitcoin bubbles and crashes using network properties and LPPLS model.
method Generalized Metcalfe's law and LPPLS model.
result Bubbles are detected with a universal super-exponential unsustainable growth pattern.
Machine learning models predict crash rates on narrow lanes.
problem Impact of narrow lanes on arterial road vehicle crashes.
method Applied random forest and least squares boosting machine learning algorithms to crash data.
result Random forest model identified as best for studying narrow lanes' safety impact.
Develops a method to estimate average hazard under non-proportional hazards without relying on proportional hazards assumption.
problem Estimation of treatment effects when hazards are non-proportional, leading to unstable hazard ratios.
method Semiparametric, doubly robust framework for covariate-adjusted average hazard estimation.
result Valid sqrt{n} inference with small bias and near-nominal confidence-interval coverage across proportional and non-proportional hazards settings.
The paper develops a filtering framework for estimating hazard rates with jumps in financial and insurance applications.
problem Estimating hazard rates with unobservable change-points in financial and insurance contexts.
method Continuous-time filtering framework using progressive enlargement of filtration, stochastic differential equations, and sensitivity analysis.
result Explicit formula for survival probability conditional on partial information.
Study explains mortgage burnout using Cox hazard models.
problem Understanding burnout in mortgage pools.
method Modeling mortgage prepayment using Cox hazard processes.
result Observed pool hazard is a survival-weighted mean of individual hazards with a selection term.
Investors with high risk aversion always invest during financial bubbles.
problem Optimal investment in a financial bubble model.
method Modeling financial bubbles using strict local martingales and Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model relaxations.
result Investors with high relative risk aversion always invest during financial bubbles.
A method for predicting survival using neural networks for both continuous and discrete time.
problem Survival prediction for both continuous and discrete time data.
method Proposes a scheme for discretizing continuous-time data and two interpolation schemes for continuous-time survival estimates.
result The hazard rate parametrization of neural networks yields better performance than the parametrization of the probability mass function.
This study shows ESG ratings reduce equity crash risk during market downturns.
problem Decoupling of alpha from tail risk resilience in traditional models.
method Double Machine Learning for structural deconfounding, state-dependent analysis.
result High ESG ratings reduce crash incidence during systemic drawdowns.
Proposes a flexible neural model for multi-state survival analysis.
problem Limited applicability of Cox models for multi-state and competing events.
method Uses neural ordinary differential equations to solve Kolmogorov forward equations.
result Demonstrates state-of-the-art performance and interpretability.
Introduces Dirac processes for financial derivative pricing.
problem High implied volatility for CDS swaptions in hazard rate setups.
method Uses Dirac delta functions to add spikes to short-rate models.
result Dirac processes enable high implied volatility for CDS swaptions.
We analyze the memory in volatility by studying volatility return intervals, defined as the time between two consecutive fluctuations larger than a given threshold, in time periods following stock market crashes. Such an aftercrash period is characterized by the Omori law, which describes the decay in the rate of after…
We introduce the concept of "negative bubbles" as the mirror image of standard financial bubbles, in which positive feedback mechanisms may lead to transient accelerating price falls. To model these negative bubbles, we adapt the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with a hazard rate de…
SJDs unify masked, continuous, and hybrid diffusion models.
problem Unified modeling of diffusion processes.
method Continuous-time Markov processes with token embeddings and hazard rates.
result Unified model recovers masked, continuous, and hybrid diffusion as limits.
Algorithm distinguishes light-tailed from non-light-tailed distributions.
problem Characterize the tail of a distribution using hazard rate.
method Careful bucketing scheme based on hazard rate.
result Polynomial number of samples required for success.
Flexible DNN for survival data, avoiding proportional hazards assumption.
problem Survival analysis with complex interactions and non-proportional hazards.
method Partially linear DNN model with a flexible nonparametric component.
result FLEXI-Haz achieves optimal convergence rates and asymptotic efficiency.
In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often referred to as the interest rate spread variable, can be considered as a statistical m…
Novel framework identifies pump-specific deterioration rates using Bayesian hierarchical hazard modeling and causal discovery.
problem Challenges in asset management due to heterogeneous deterioration rates in pump equipment.
method Bayesian hierarchical hazard modeling with causal discovery, GPU-accelerated No-U-Turn Sampling (NUTS), and DirectLiNGAM.
result Identified striking heterogeneity in deterioration rates, with negative effects 400 times larger than positive effects.
New models outperform deep ones in survival analysis without complex parameters.
problem Improving survival analysis models without overly complex parameters.
method Semi-parametric models inspired from mixtures of experts.
result Interpretable semi-parametric models perform equally well or better than deep models.
Study uses JLS model to predict financial market reactions to Brexit/Bremain referendum.
problem Detecting financial market reactions to Brexit/Bremain referendum.
method Applied Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model with Genetic Algorithms for calibration.
result Equity and currency markets do not expect crashes, while rates, credit, and real estate markets show instability.
The study tests a functional-form restriction on risk exposure dynamics using margin debt data.
problem Understanding risk exposure dynamics under capital constraints and slack.
method Testing a regime-conditional functional-form restriction on aggregate risk-exposure dynamics implied by VaR-constrained intermediary models.
result The contraction and growth of exposures under capital constraints and slack are observed and tested.
Bayesian model for survival analysis using Gaussian processes.
problem Handling various types of censoring and nonparametric modeling of survival data.
method Semi-parametric Bayesian model with a Gaussian process for nonparametric variation.
result Model performs better than competing methods on synthetic and real data.
In recent years, a market for mortality derivatives began developing as a way to handle systematic mortality risk, which is inherent in life insurance and annuity contracts. Systematic mortality risk is due to the uncertain development of future mortality intensities, or {\it hazard rates}. In this paper, we develop a …
AI analyzes corporate ESG filings to identify key dimensions and investor reactions.
problem Lack of reliable ESG ratings systems in corporate filings.
method AI techniques to separate and measure ESG dimensions and investor responses.
result AI can improve ESG ratings systems by identifying key dimensions and investor reactions.
This study analyzes cryptocurrency market crashes using complex network analysis.
problem Identifying and understanding dynamics of cryptocurrency market crashes.
method Complex network analysis of cryptocurrency market during pre-crash, crash, and post-crash periods.
result Network density and clustering coefficient spike during crashes, indicating uninformed panic sell-off.
Survival analysis of 832,941 Solana token launches shows a significant decline in graduation rate.
problem Analyzing the survival rate of Solana token launches and identifying factors affecting graduation.
method Survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards models.
result The survival rate of Solana token launches has declined significantly, with a 3.18x decrease from previous rates.
Study on financial crises duration and volatility in US markets.
problem Duration of negative stock market returns and its impact on volatility.
method Survival models, log-normal distribution, continuous time analysis.
result Conditional probability of ending negative return spells increases up to 2-3 months after onset.
In this paper we investigate the local risk-minimization approach for a combined financial-insurance model where there are restrictions on the information available to the insurance company. In particular we assume that, at any time, the insurance company may observe the number of deaths from a specific portfolio of in…
We build an agent-based model to study how the interplay between low- and high-frequency trading affects asset price dynamics. Our main goal is to investigate whether high-frequency trading exacerbates market volatility and generates flash crashes. In the model, low-frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronol…
Study finds stock prices deviated from company fundamentals in 2008 crash.
problem Deviation of stock prices from company fundamentals during the 2008 financial crisis.
method Used a large database of 7,796 companies to develop a panel regression model with three financial indicators.
result Share prices were overvalued before 2008 and undervalued in 2008, indicating market anomalies.
Model explains stock price bubbles through debt crises and financial crashes.
problem Analyzing financial fragility and stock price bubbles.
method Stock-flow consistent model integrating macroeconomic and financial market dynamics.
result Model demonstrates how credit expansion and crash risk lead to recurrent boom-bust cycles.
Paper evaluates deadline-ILS on insider trading contracts, finding it distinguishes signals from noise.
problem Deadlines in insider trading contracts and information leakage detection.
method Empirical evaluation using FFIC dataset, hazard-rate estimation, cross-market wallet analysis.
result Deadline-ILS distinguishes signal from proxy artefact, with a significant shift in magnitude.
Paper proposes a method to estimate confidence bands for survival random forests.
problem No statistically valid and computationally feasible approach for estimating confidence bands for survival random forests.
method Extending recent developments in infinite-order incomplete U-statistics, the paper proposes an unbiased confidence band estimation.
result The proposed method accurately estimates the confidence band and achieves desired coverage rate.
Study shows economic policy uncertainty increases stock market crash risk during pandemic.
problem Impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market crashes during the pandemic.
method Used GARCH-S model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for crash risk, analyzed data from US stock market.
result Significantly negative correlation between economic policy uncertainty and stock market crash risk, stronger during pandemic.
This study uses ARM to analyze pedestrian crashes under different lighting conditions.
problem Identifying crash risk factors under varying lighting conditions.
method Applied Association Rules Mining to Louisiana pedestrian crash data.
result Daylight crashes are associated with children, seniors, and older drivers.
We study the phase transition of dynamical herd behaviors for the yen-dollar exchange rate in the Japanese financial market. It is obtained that the probability distribution of returns satisfies the power-law behavior with three different values of the scaling exponent 3.11 (one time lag τ = 1 minute), 2.81 (30 minut…
New method estimates hazard ratios without bias in observational studies.
problem Uninterpretable hazard ratios due to unspecified baseline hazard.
method Kernel-based machine learning to model risk set changes.
result Debiased maximum-likelihood estimators identify true hazard ratios.
In data sets with many more features than observations, independent screening based on all univariate regression models leads to a computationally convenient variable selection method. Recent efforts have shown that in the case of generalized linear models, independent screening may suffice to capture all relevant feat…
The paper proposes a new method for clustering survival data using smoothed log-hazard trajectories.
problem Clustering survival data based on instantaneous risk dynamics.
method Functional Principal Component Analysis applied to B-spline smoothed log-hazard trajectories.
result The proposed method provides an interpretable representation of relative temporal risk dynamics.
Predicts stock market crashes using rational bubble model.
problem Financial market crashes prediction.
method White box model based on rational bubble theory.
result Successfully predicts major crashes in Dow Jones and Bitcoin markets.
Study examines financial market structure changes during the COVID-19 crash using a novel MI approach.
problem Analyzing nonlinear dependencies among major stocks during market crashes.
method Conditional p-threshold mutual information (MI) and Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) framework.
result Financial networks become more integrated during crashes, with increased periphery vulnerability.
This paper uses machine learning to estimate how different types of crashes affect highway traffic.
problem Estimating the heterogeneous causal effects of crashes on highway traffic.
method Neyman-Rubin Causal Model, Conditional Shapley Value Index, Structural Causal Model, Doubly Robust Learning.
result Different types of crashes have varying impacts on traffic, with rear-end crashes causing the most severe congestion.