Bayesian model predicts crack evolution on rails with uncertainties.
problem Predicting crack evolution on railways due to complex interactions and uncertainties.
method Robust Bayesian multi-horizon approach with constraints.
result Trade-off between prediction accuracy and constraint compliance.
This research develops efficient surrogate models for predicting crack growth in metal structures.
problem Accurately predicting crack growth in metal structures under uncertainty.
method Employing Gaussian Process (GP) regression models for latent variable modeling to create probabilistic surrogate models.
result Surrogate models successfully encode material and load-related uncertainties in stochastic crack growth processes.
Study uses neural processes to predict and classify crack patterns in moving disks.
problem Predicting and classifying crack patterns in moving disks.
method Peridynamic theory, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), and Neural Processes.
result Neural Processes provide accurate predictions even with missing or insufficient data.
New method recovers compressed crack images for automatic segmentation.
problem Recover crack images from compressed data for SHM systems.
method Generative model-based CS method for crack images.
result Generative model effectively captures crack features for segmentation.
This paper improves Gaussian process predictions by integrating prior knowledge.
problem Gaussian processes lack predictive power when prior information is ignored.
method Derive mean and covariance functions from previous data using weighted sums of basis functions.
result Integrating prior knowledge significantly increases look-ahead time and accuracy.
Physics-informed neural network identifies and characterizes surface cracks in metals.
problem Identifying and characterizing surface-breaking cracks in metals using ultrasound.
method Physics-informed neural network (PINN) trained with ultrasonic surface wave data and adaptive activation functions.
result PINN accurately estimates the speed of sound and identifies crack locations in metals.
In modern building infrastructures, the chance to devise adaptive and unsupervised data-driven health monitoring systems is gaining in popularity due to the large availability of big data from low-cost sensors with communication capabilities and advanced modeling tools such as Deep Learning. The main purpose of this pa…
Improved aircraft structure prediction using derivative-enhanced sparse Cholesky GP method.
problem Accurate real-time prediction of aircraft structure performance.
method Combining derivative data with a modified dynamic sparse Cholesky linear system solver.
result Improved prediction accuracy of aircraft structure performance.
In this letter we investigate the information provided by the "compass rose" (Crack, T.F. and Ledoit, O. (1996), Journal of Finance, 51(2), pg. 751-762) patterns revealed in phase portraits of daily stock returns. It has been initially suggested that the compass rose is just a manifestation of price clustering and disc…
Deep-CAPTCHA cracks visual CAPTCHAs using deep learning.
problem Cracking visual CAPTCHAs to assess vulnerabilities.
method Developed a Convolutional Neural Network (Deep-CAPTCHA) to solve numerical and alphanumeric CAPTCHAs.
result Cracking accuracy of 98.94% and 98.31% for numerical and alphanumeric datasets respectively.
Given data over the joint distribution of two random variables X and Y, we consider the problem of inferring the most likely causal direction between X and Y. In particular, we consider the general case where both X and Y may be univariate or multivariate, and of the same or mixed data types. We take an inf…
Machine learning predicts failure in brittle materials with high accuracy.
problem Predicting failure in brittle materials under repetitive loads.
method Phase-field model combined with supervised machine learning.
result Framework predicts failure with acceptable accuracy even in noisy data.
In this paper, five different approaches for reduced-order modeling of brittle fracture in geomaterials, specifically concrete, are presented and compared. Four of the five methods rely on machine learning (ML) algorithms to approximate important aspects of the brittle fracture problem. In addition to the ML algorithms…
DAFNO learns surrogates for complex systems on irregular geometries.
problem Learning accurate surrogates for complex physical systems on irregular geometries.
method DAFNO incorporates a smoothed characteristic function in the integral layer architecture of FNOs, leveraging FFT for rapid computations.
result DAFNO achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on material modeling and airfoil simulation datasets.
In this paper we give a complete description of the set of discrete faithful representations SH(M) uniformizing a compact, orientable, hyperbolizable 3-manifold M with incompressible boundary, equipped with the strong topology, with the description given in term of the end invariants of the quotient manifolds. As part …
Self-supervised learning improves RUL prediction with limited data in fatigue damage prognosis.
problem Limited labelled data for RUL prediction in fatigue damage prognosis.
method Pre-training deep learning models on unlabelled sensor data using self-supervised learning.
result Self-supervised pre-trained models significantly outperform non-pre-trained models in RUL prediction with scarce labelled data.
ProtTrans models predict protein features without evolutionary info.
problem Predicting protein features from amino acid sequences.
method Self-supervised deep learning on large protein datasets.
result ProtT5 embeddings outperform state-of-the-art for per-residue predictions.
Paper simplifies complex sports analytics models for better understanding.
problem Difficulty in interpreting deep learning models for sports analytics.
method Developed a linear model tree that mimics deep learning models and explains its knowledge.
result The linear model tree achieves high accuracy and provides actionable insights.
Dual ML approach predicts peak temperatures in AFSD, improving process optimization.
problem Lack of understanding between process parameters and resulting microstructure in AFSD.
method Combines supervised machine learning and physics-informed neural networks.
result Ensemble techniques like gradient boosting outperform other SML methods in predicting peak temperatures.
In this paper, we develop a convolutional neural network model to predict the mechanical properties of a two-dimensional checkerboard composite quantitatively. The checkerboard composite possesses two phases, one phase is soft and ductile while the other is stiff and brittle. The ground-truth data used in the training …
We investigate the "compass rose" (Crack, T.F. and Ledoit, O. (1996), Journal of Finance, 51(2), pg. 751-762) patterns revealed in phase portraits (delay plots) of stock returns. The structures observed in these diagrams have been attributed mainly to price clustering and discreteness. Using wavelet based denoising, we…
According to Courant's theorem, an eigenfunction as\-sociated with the n-th eigenvalue λ_n has at most n nodal domains. A footnote in the book of Courant and Hilbert, states that the same assertion is true for any linear combination of eigenfunctions associated with eigenvalues less than or equal to λ_n. We c…
The present paper shows a solution to the problem of automatic distress detection, more precisely the detection of holes in paved roads. To do so, the proposed solution uses a weightless neural network known as Wisard to decide whether an image of a road has any kind of cracks. In addition, the proposed architecture al…
Deep learning detects corrosion in nuclear fuel canisters.
problem Ensuring safety and integrity of used nuclear fuel dry storage canisters.
method Residual neural networks (ResNets) for real-time corrosion detection of canister images.
result Deep learning approach accurately detects corrosion and classifies canisters as corroded or intact.
Proposes a probabilistic digital twin for dynamical systems using sparse Bayesian learning.
problem Creating and updating accurate digital twins for complex dynamical systems.
method Sparse Bayesian machine learning, two approaches: input-output and output-only.
result Identifies correct perturbation terms and associated parameters in dynamical systems.
The paper models Gasoil options using Brent benchmarks, improving volatility estimation.
problem Inability to directly model illiquid Gasoil options market.
method Jointly models Brent and Gasoil futures prices with a correlated Bachelier model, estimating volatility spread.
result The proposed framework accurately maps Brent implied volatilities to Gasoil implied volatilities.
HNPE uses auxiliary data to estimate parameters in uncertain models.
problem Uncertain models with identical observations.
method Exploits global parameters from auxiliary data to estimate parameters.
result Validated on a motivating example and applied to neuroscience.
This paper explores a new framework for lossy image encryption and decryption using a simple shallow encoder neural network E for encryption, and a complex deep decoder neural network D for decryption. E is kept simple so that encoding can be done on low power and portable devices and can in principle be any nonlinear …
Develops torsion dual connections for statistical manifolds.
problem Defining statistical manifolds using dual connections.
method Introduces torsion dual connections and proves their properties.
result Curvature tensor of torsion dual connections has specific divergence.
Owing to the expeditious growth in the information and communication technologies, smart cities have raised the expectations in terms of efficient functioning and management. One key aspect of residents' daily comfort is assured through affording reliable traffic management and route planning. Comprehensively, the majo…
We present a new physics informed neural network (PINN) algorithm for solving brittle fracture problems. While most of the PINN algorithms available in the literature minimize the residual of the governing partial differential equation, the proposed approach takes a different path by minimizing the variational energy o…
Study finds billing codes at IPO boost digital health companies' financial performance.
problem Identifying factors that drive long-term financial success in digital health companies.
method Analyzed 33 digital health IPOs from 2010-2021, comparing companies with and without billing codes.
result Companies with billing codes at IPO were significantly more likely to achieve positive CAGR and higher market capitalization.
Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.
problem Binary prediction sets are limited; fuzzy prediction sets offer richer guarantees.
method Generalize prediction sets to fuzzy sets, showing they are e-values with merging properties.
result Optimal e-values lead to optimal fuzzy prediction sets, including optimal conformal prediction.
Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.
problem Improving the reliability and uncertainty quantification of machine learning predictions.
method Combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction for binary and regression problems.
result Improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers practical alternatives.
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.
Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.
Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by conformal predictive systems may be useful, e.g., in decision making problems. Conf…
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
problem Understanding how predictions influence real-world outcomes.
method Causal identifiability analysis of prediction-covariate-outcome relationships.
result Standard supervised learning can identify transferable relationships from predictions.
Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with confl…
Proposes feature conformal prediction for broader application in semantic feature spaces.
problem Establishing valid prediction intervals in semantic feature spaces.
method Extends conformal prediction to semantic feature spaces using deep representation learning.
result Feature conformal prediction outperforms regular conformal prediction under mild assumptions.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in hospitalized patients and can lead to serious medical complications. In order to optimally predict AKI before it develops at any time during a hospital stay, we present a novel framework in which AKI is continually predicted automatically from EHR data over the entire hospit…
AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.
problem Creating valid and accurate prediction intervals for machine learning models.
method AutoML framework that optimizes prediction interval length for better accuracy and less conservatism.
result AutoCP significantly outperforms benchmark algorithms in constructing accurate prediction intervals.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
ICP improves prediction intervals for continuous outcomes at lower computational cost.
problem Systematic bias in point predictions that undermines their use in decision-making.
method Develops Isotonic Conformal Prediction (ICP) framework to decouple calibration from prediction-set construction.
result SICP and TICP procedures match SC-CP coverage at lower computational cost.
Optimizes predictions for specific tasks using parametrized decision analysis.
problem Optimizing predictions for specific decision tasks of interest.
method Designs a class of parametrized actions for Bayesian decision analysis.
result Derives efficient and interpretable solutions for various action parametrizations and loss functions.
This paper discusses a counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, conformal e-prediction. Conformal e-prediction is conceptually simpler and had been developed in the 1990s as a precursor of conformal prediction. When conformal prediction emerged as result of replacing e-values by p-values, it seemed to have imp…
RFpredInterval package builds prediction intervals for random forests and boosted forests.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in random forest and boosted forest point predictions.
method 16 methods to build prediction intervals with random forests and boosted forests.
result The proposed method outperforms existing methods in building prediction intervals.