WCPS extends CPS to handle covariate shifts, providing probabilistically calibrated predictions.
problem Applying CPS to scenarios with covariate shifts.
method WCPS uses likelihood ratios between training and testing covariate distributions.
result WCPS are probabilistically calibrated under covariate shift.
Bayesian neural networks improve cancer dynamics prediction.
problem Predicting cancer dynamics under treatment due to heterogeneity and sparse data.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model using baseline covariates and Bayesian neural networks for nonlinear interactions.
result Bayesian neural networks outperform linear models in predicting cancer dynamics with interactions.
Enhanced Transformer models predict ETF portfolio performance by optimizing covariance and semi-covariance matrices.
problem Static covariance estimates fail to capture dynamic market fluctuations and non-linear correlations.
method Transformer-based models for real-time covariance and semi-covariance predictions.
result Portfolios optimized with semi-covariance matrix outperform those with standard covariance matrix, especially in volatile conditions.
Predict covariance from features using convex optimization.
problem Predicting the covariance of a Gaussian vector from another feature vector.
method A generalized linear model with convex optimization for fitting parameters.
result Predicted covariance matrices are symmetric positive definite.
CDST improves ensemble prediction by adjusting model weights based on covariates.
problem Improving ensemble prediction accuracy in complex scenarios.
method Covariate-dependent stacking (CDST) with flexible model weights estimated via cross-validation.
result CDST consistently outperforms conventional model averaging methods in complex datasets.
DRUM transfers cardiac arrest models across registries with missing covariates.
problem Clinical prediction models fail when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment.
method DRUM transfers models to target populations with structurally missing covariates, optimizing worst-case predictive performance over unknown target distributions.
result DRUM yields better-calibrated predictions and improved clinical classification performance across sites.
Network-assisted regression uses conformal prediction for valid inference.
problem Predicting node attributes using network and conventional covariates with valid statistical inference.
method Network analog of conformal prediction under mild joint exchangeability assumption.
result Achieves finite sample validity and asymptotic conditional validity for various network covariates.
The paper addresses the reliability of conformal prediction under covariate shift.
problem Ensuring reliable prediction sets under covariate shift.
method Derives upper bounds on training-conditional coverage.
result Offers PAC guarantees for conformal prediction methods.
Proposes a method to quantify uncertainty in predictions under covariate shift.
problem Uncertainty quantification challenges in machine learning with covariate shifts.
method Constructs PAC prediction sets with given importance weights and confidence intervals for weights.
result Algorithm gives prediction sets with the smallest average normalized size.
Algorithm calibrates predictions for covariate shift using domain adaptation.
problem Uncertainty estimates overestimate certainty when real-world data differs from training data.
method Uses importance weighting and learns a feature map to equalize distributions.
result Outperforms existing approaches in calibrated prediction when covariate shift occurs.
New criterion improves predictive evaluation in weighted inference scenarios.
problem Improving predictive evaluation in scenarios with different likelihoods for estimation and evaluation.
method Developed the posterior covariance information criterion (PCIC) to handle weighted likelihood inference.
result PCIC is asymptotically unbiased for quasi-Bayesian generalization error in weighted inference.
Proposes using external data to improve predictions in medical applications with limited samples.
problem Small sample sizes and complex covariate-response relationships in medical data.
method Integrates external co-data into Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) using an empirical Bayes framework.
result Improves prediction accuracy compared to standard BART, especially for nonlinear relationships.
A regression algorithm uses Green's function and covariance matrix for predictive distributions.
problem Regression and uncertainty quantification for machine learning.
method Green's function theory, Bayesian approach, covariance matrix of normalized Green's function.
result The covariance matrix provides predictive distributions with mean and confidence intervals.
New method predicts sets under unknown covariate shift with high confidence.
problem Adapting to unknown covariate shift in prediction sets.
method PredSet-1Step, a flexible distribution-free method.
result Achieves asymptotic probably approximately correct coverage.
This paper is the first work to propose a network to predict a structured uncertainty distribution for a synthesized image. Previous approaches have been mostly limited to predicting diagonal covariance matrices. Our novel model learns to predict a full Gaussian covariance matrix for each reconstruction, which permits …
Study predictive performance of linear regression with random functional covariates.
problem Theoretical predictive performance of linear regression with random functional covariates.
method Theoretical analysis of ridge and ridge-less least-squares regression with random functional covariates.
result Probabilistic bounds on predictive excess risk for random functional covariates.
Study examines how imputation accuracy affects prediction accuracy in regression problems with missing covariates.
problem Missing covariates in regression or classification problems.
method Simulation and empirical analysis using UCI datasets and statistical inference.
result Imputation accuracy impacts prediction accuracy, especially with Machine Learning methods.
A new method for distilling predictions from a teacher model to a student model without original training data.
problem Training without original labeled data.
method Prediction-only distillation scheme for linear and logistic regression.
result Prediction mixing can outperform both the teacher and pure-distilled models.
Covariate shift relaxes the widely-employed independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption by allowing different training and testing input distributions. Unfortunately, common methods for addressing covariate shift by trying to remove the bias between training and testing distributions using importance weigh…
Study improves treatment effect estimation using unlabeled covariates.
problem Estimating treatment effects with limited labeled data.
method Developed efficiency bounds and estimators for semi-supervised setting.
result Estimators using unlabeled covariates have lower asymptotic variance.
Develops a new random forest method for clustered data with improved prediction and inference.
problem Improving prediction and inference accuracy for clustered data with within-cluster dependence.
method Clustered Random Forests, using weighted least squares estimators for leaf predictions.
result Optimal prediction and inference weights vary under covariate shift, necessitating user-chosen weights.
Treeging combines regression trees and kriging for spatial and space-time prediction.
problem Improving spatial and space-time prediction accuracy.
method Combines regression trees with kriging's covariance structures.
result Treeging outperforms kriging and random forest in various scenarios.
GBMixed boosts mixed models for clustered data, estimating mean and variance flexibly.
problem Flexible estimation of mean and variance components in clustered data.
method Gradient Boosting framework for linear mixed models with likelihood-based gradients.
result GBMixed accurately recovers complex nonlinear fixed effects and covariances.
Kandinsky conformal prediction expands conditional coverage guarantees.
problem Disparities in coverage guarantees across different subpopulations.
method Flexible handling of overlapping and fractional group memberships.
result Minimax-optimal high-probability conditional coverage bound.
CoDrug uses KDE to create valid prediction sets for drug molecules under covariate shift.
problem Creating reliable uncertainty estimates for drug properties from computational models.
method CoDrug employs an energy-based model and KDE to assess and rectify distribution shift.
result CoDrug reduces the coverage gap by over 35% compared to non-adjusted conformal prediction sets.
Efficiently solves large portfolio optimization problems by reducing and sparsifying covariance matrices.
problem Large and dense covariance matrices limit efficient portfolio optimization.
method Dimension reduction and increased sparsity based on machine learning predictions.
result Improved portfolio performance and reduced runtime compared to full dense covariance matrices.
Bayesian framework improves uncertainty estimates under covariate shifts.
problem Neural networks' unreliable uncertainty estimates under covariate shifts.
method Adaptive prior conditioned on training and new covariates, amortized variational inference.
result Significantly improved uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts.
JAWS audits predictive uncertainty under covariate shift using jackknife+ weighted methods.
problem Auditing predictive uncertainty under data distribution shifts.
method JAW and JAWA methods for distribution-free uncertainty quantification.
result JAW relaxes the jackknife+'s assumption of data exchangeability for covariate shift.
Evaluating prediction models under covariate shift and selective labels
problem Model performance evaluation under distribution shift and selection bias
method Double machine learning
result Accurate estimation of target risk
A new method identifies class-specific covariates in multi-class prediction tasks.
problem Identifying covariates specifically associated with one or more outcome classes in multi-class prediction tasks.
method Introducing multi forests (MuFs) with multi-way and binary splits to measure class-associated discriminatory ability.
result The multi-class VIM specifically ranks class-associated covariates highly, unlike conventional VIMs.
Proposes spBART for risk prediction using epigenetic signatures and covariates.
problem Complex high-dimensional epigenetic data and low-dimensional covariates for risk prediction.
method Semi-parametric Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (spBART) with cross-validation for variable selection.
result Achieves strong out-of-sample discrimination (AUC = 0.96) in held-out validation set.
Prediction-time batch normalization improves model robustness under covariate shift.
problem Dealing with covariate shift in deep learning models.
method Prediction-time batch normalization, a simple but effective method.
result Significantly improves model accuracy and calibration under covariate shift.
We investigate the Student-t process as an alternative to the Gaussian process as a nonparametric prior over functions. We derive closed form expressions for the marginal likelihood and predictive distribution of a Student-t process, by integrating away an inverse Wishart process prior over the covariance kernel of a G…
Study addresses covariate mismatch in federated learning, improving model accuracy.
problem Learning from clients with different feature sets in federated learning.
method Developed two approaches for linear prediction under covariate mismatch: plug-in estimator and impute-then-regress strategy.
result Proposed methods provide asymptotic and finite-sample learning rates, improving model accuracy.
Although the Lasso has been extensively studied, the relationship between its prediction performance and the correlations of the covariates is not fully understood. In this paper, we give new insights into this relationship in the context of multiple linear regression. We show, in particular, that the incorporation of …
Combines BART and Gaussian process for spatial covariate prediction with uncertainty.
problem Improving spatial prediction models with nonlinear and interaction covariates.
method Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) combined with Gaussian process for spatial dependence.
result Effective in reducing computational burden through INLA and MCMC.
New method improves spatial prediction validation accuracy.
problem Validation methods fail for spatial prediction tasks due to mismatch between validation and test locations.
method Proposes a new validation method that adapts existing covariate-shift ideas to spatial settings.
result Proves and demonstrates the new method's superiority in spatial prediction validation.
The paper tackles uncertainty quantification in multi-source settings.
problem Uncertainty quantification under covariate shift is challenging in multi-source settings.
method The paper addresses this by proposing two extensions of weighted conformal prediction: merge-based aggregation and data-pooling.
result Theoretical guarantees are provided for the proposed approaches, and experiments validate their effectiveness.
We provide a unified analysis of the predictive risk of ridge regression and regularized discriminant analysis in a dense random effects model. We work in a high-dimensional asymptotic regime where p,n→∞ and p/n→γ∈(0,∞), and allow for arbitrary covariance among the features. For both metho…
New methods improve inference after prediction without strong model assumptions.
problem Improper inference after prediction can lead to invalid results.
method Angelopoulos et al. (2023) and Wang et al. (2020) propose corrections to inference.
result Angelopoulos et al. method controls type 1 error and provides correct coverage.
Proposes a new method for conformal prediction under covariate shift with posterior drift.
problem Improving classification performance in target domains with limited training data.
method Weighted conformal classifier that leverages source and target samples.
result Demonstrates favorable asymptotic properties and practical utility.
Covariance-Driven Regression Trees reduce overfitting in CART.
problem Overfitting in CART decision trees, especially with small sample sizes.
method Covariance-driven splitting criterion for regression trees (CovRT).
result CovRT achieves superior prediction accuracy compared to CART in simulations and real-world tasks.
New method uses machine learning to improve statistical inference.
problem Performing inference on conditional functionals with scarce labeled data.
method Combines localization with prediction-based variance reduction.
result Valid and sharp confidence intervals for conditional functionals.
Study forecasts volatility and risk in electricity markets using matrix-HAR models.
problem Forecasting volatility and risk in electricity markets.
method Constructed a parsimonious matrix-HAR type model to estimate realized covariation and risk premia in electricity markets.
result Inclusion of longer time horizons and renewable generation information improves forecasts.
In the scenario of real-time monitoring of hospital patients, high-quality inference of patients' health status using all information available from clinical covariates and lab tests is essential to enable successful medical interventions and improve patient outcomes. Developing a computational framework that can learn…
Optimization algorithm CoCo improves causal inference from diverse data.
problem Identifying true causal relationships from data with spurious associations.
method CoCo optimizes for causal inference using environments with invariant causal relationships.
result CoCo provides more accurate causal estimates and predictions.
Paper proposes a deep learning method for better covariance matrix forecasting.
problem Suboptimal predictive performance in traditional matrix volatility forecasting.
method Riemannian-geometry-aware deep learning framework for symmetric positive definite matrices.
result Our method outperforms traditional approaches in predictive accuracy.
CSTs improve stability in covariance spectrum analysis without training.
problem Stability and expressiveness in covariance spectrum analysis.
method Sequential application of covariance wavelet filters to input data.
result Stable and expressive hierarchical representations in low-data settings.