Study geodesic paths on flat surfaces, comparing length and singularity counts.
problem Comparing geometric length and singularity counts on geodesic paths.
method Apply counting limit laws to infinite graphs and then to flat surfaces.
result Statistical comparison of geometric length and singularity counts on geodesic paths.
New phases identified in neural scaling laws with compute limits.
problem Understanding neural scaling laws under compute constraints.
method Solved neural scaling model with stochastic gradient descent, derived loss curves, analyzed model-parameter-count phases.
result Identified 4 phases (+3 subphases) in data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane, derived exponents.
Study a market with uncertain informed traders, finding price impact depends on both asset value and informed trader count distribution.
problem Uncertain participation of informed traders in a market with limit orders.
method Characterized equilibrium by a fixed point integral equation, analyzed large order asymptotics, solved numerically.
result Equilibrium price impact depends on both asset value and distribution of informed traders, not just expected number of informed traders.
The article shows how to count small eigenvalues without assuming Morse functions.
problem Counting small eigenvalues without assuming Morse functions.
method Using the Witten Laplacian and persistent cohomology.
result The rescaled logarithms of small eigenvalues are determined by bar code lengths.
Upper bound found for Steklov eigenvalues counting function.
problem Counting Steklov eigenvalues on compact manifolds with boundary.
method Used Weyl's law and Pólya's Conjecture in the Steklov case.
result Obtained an upper bound for the counting function.
Bayesian nonparametric CMS improves frequency estimation for power-law data.
problem Estimating frequencies of low-frequency tokens in power-law data streams.
method Developed a learning-augmented count-min sketch using a normalized inverse Gaussian process prior.
result The approach achieves remarkable performance in estimating low-frequency tokens.
This paper studies Thompson sampling's arm-pull dynamics and inference, revealing key differences from UCB algorithms.
problem Understanding the precise arm-pull dynamics in Thompson sampling algorithms.
method Developed new approaches to analyze the arm-pull count process and noise processes, including inverse process and reparametrization methods.
result Arm-pull count is asymptotically deterministic only for suboptimal or unique optimal arms, revealing a unifying principle of stability.
Signals consisting of a sequence of pulses show that inherent origin of the 1/f noise is a Brownian fluctuation of the average interevent time between subsequent pulses of the pulse sequence. In this paper we generalize the model of interevent time to reproduce a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spec…
We discover scaling laws for kernel regression loss under various learning rate schedules.
problem Understanding loss dynamics and learning rate schedules in kernel regression.
method Theoretical analysis of stochastic gradient descent on a power-law kernel regression model.
result Established a Functional Scaling Law (FSL) capturing the full loss trajectory under arbitrary learning rate schedules.
CAWs learn temporal network dynamics without node identities or edge attributes.
problem Learning temporal network dynamics without node identities or edge attributes.
method Causal Anonymous Walks (CAWs) using temporal random walks and hitting counts.
result CAW-N outperforms previous methods in predicting links over 6 real temporal networks.
Non-Markovian point process shows power-law scaling, similar to nonlinear Markovian process.
problem Understanding the scaling behavior of non-Markovian point processes.
method Analyzed a confined fractional Brownian motion-driven point process and compared it to a nonlinear Markovian process.
result A nonlinear Markovian process can reproduce the power-law scaling behavior of a non-Markovian point process.
We show that a Weyl law holds for the variational spectrum of the p-Laplacian. More precisely, let (λi)i=1∞ be the variational spectrum of Δp on a closed Riemannian manifold (X,g) and let N(λ)=#{i:λi<λ} be the associated counting function. Then we have a Weyl law $N(λ) \sim c \operatorna…
Random walks on metric spaces embed quasi-isometrically into the space.
problem Embedding random subgroups of metric spaces quasi-isometrically.
method Analyzing random walks and contracting elements in metric spaces.
result Random subgroups of isometry groups are quasi-isometrically embedded.
Study shows central limit theorem for counting measures in non-smooth spaces.
problem Counting measures in non-smooth spaces with coarse negative curvature.
method Established central limit theorems for actions of groups on hyperbolic spaces without properness or smoothness assumptions.
result General framework allows for applications in geometrically finite manifolds and intersection numbers.
OpFlow predicts robust OD flows by learning choice potentials conditioned on spatial exposures.
problem Deep models trained on raw counts are vulnerable to distribution shift.
method OpFlow learns row-centered choice potentials and reconstructs flows by combining them with a calibrated origin scale.
result OpFlow improves robustness under environment shifts, as shown by controlled synthetic shifts and a real-world experiment.
The statistical properties of the bid-ask spread of a frequently traded Chinese stock listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are investigated using the limit-order book data. Three different definitions of spread are considered based on the time right before transactions, the time whenever the highest buying price or th…
Ensembles of random-feature models can't outperform a single large model.
problem Finding the optimal balance between model size and ensemble size.
method Deterministic equivalent risk estimates and scaling laws analysis.
result Ensembles of random-feature models achieve near-optimal performance only under specific conditions.
Study sharp lower bounds on negative eigenvalues of magnetic Pauli operator.
problem Counting negative eigenvalues of magnetic Pauli operator.
method Reduction to boundary Dirac operator, Atiyah-Patodi-Singer index theory, Benjamin-Ono equation conservation law.
result New formula on the number of eigenvalues of magnetic Neumann Laplacian in semi-classical limit.
Unified framework for critical scaling of inverse temperature in self-attention.
problem Conflicting inverse-temperature laws for long-context self-attention.
method Counting gaps and defining an upper-tail accumulation scale.
result Critical inverse-temperature scale determined by gap-counting function.
I consider the problem of the optimal limit order price of a financial asset in the framework of the maximization of the utility function of the investor. The analytical solution of the problem gives insight on the origin of the recently empirically observed power law distribution of limit order prices. In the framewor…
Uniform counting formulas for orthogeodesics in Kleinian groups converge.
problem Counting orthogeodesics in Kleinian groups converging to a limit.
method Spectral gap of the limit manifold and geodesic flow mixing property.
result Asymptotically uniform counting formulas for orthogeodesics.
Deviation inequalities and limit laws for random walks on metric spaces.
problem Understanding random walks on metric spaces with contracting isometries.
method Adapting Gouëzel's pivotal time construction to establish deviation inequalities.
result Exponential bounds and limit laws for random walks on mapping class groups and CAT(0) spaces.
Bootstrap method for Markov chains in reinforcement learning.
problem Distributional consistency in finite controlled Markov chains with unknown control policies.
method Model-based bootstrap with novel LLN and CLT for visitation counts and transition increments.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for value and Q-functions in offline RL. We study the distribution of resonances for geometrically finite hyperbolic surfaces of infinite area by countting resonances numerically. The resonances are computed as zeros of the Selberg zeta function, using an algorithm for computation of the zeta function for Schottky groups. Our particular focus is on three aspe…
Novel groups exhibit contradictory behaviors with respect to Burnside laws.
problem Understanding probabilistic behaviors of groups under Burnside laws.
method Geometric analysis of relations, information-theoretic coding, combinatorial and probabilistic methods.
result Groups can satisfy Burnside laws with probability 1 for some generating sets and 0 for others.
Exploratory analysis over network data is often limited by the ability to efficiently calculate graph statistics, which can provide a model-free understanding of the macroscopic properties of a network. We introduce a framework for estimating the graphlet count---the number of occurrences of a small subgraph motif (e.g…
We study the volume distribution of nodal domains of random band-limited functions on generic manifolds, and find that in the high energy limit a typical instance obeys a deterministic universal law, independent of the manifold. Some of the basic qualitative properties of this law, such as its support, monotonicity and…
Study compares exponential and power-law kernels in modeling high-frequency trading data.
problem Modeling high-frequency trading data with specific kernel types.
method Proposes and analyzes two bivariate Hawkes processes with exponential and power-law kernels.
result Identifies strengths and limitations of exponential and power-law kernels for high-frequency trading data.
The paper connects neural networks to physics using probability theory.
problem Creating neural networks that follow physical laws.
method Applying the central limit theorem and Gaussian process theory to neural networks.
result Neural networks can be designed to obey physical laws by choosing appropriate activation functions.
Polynomial decay of correlations shown for curved surfaces.
problem Analyzing geodesic flows on curved surfaces.
method Proving polynomial decay of correlations for geodesic flows on nonpositively curved surfaces.
result Polynomial decay of correlations for geodesic flows on nonpositively curved surfaces.
Self-balancing sampler improves sampling efficiency and unpredictability.
problem Efficient and unpredictable sampling in various applications.
method Adaptive biasing of sampling probabilities to achieve faster convergence and unpredictability.
result Self-balancing sampler converges at O(n−1) rate, outperforming IID sampling. A power-law fit to the empirical inference-compute frontier in LOB prediction suggests a scaling-law-style frontier.
problem Limit order book prediction
method Using a suite of models ranging from small decision trees to neural LOB architectures
result A power-law fit to the low- and mid-compute non-MLPLOB frontier extrapolates across multiple orders of magnitude and attains R2=0.941 on the excluded high-compute MLPLOB target frontier. Language models allocate information storage, not collapsing into uniform representations.
problem Incomplete neural collapse in language model representations.
method Analyzing variance and information sharing across 14 models, proving an information floor.
result Within-class variance is allocated information storage, not collapsed into uniform representations.
The S&P500 daily values and log-returns fail to conform to Benford's laws, revealing underlying trends.
problem Testing financial data for conformity to Benford's laws.
method Analyzed S&P500 daily closing values and log-returns over 16,265 days, disaggregating at five levels.
result S&P500 daily values show a huge lack of conformity to Benford's laws, with missing first and first two digits.
Sharp theory of neural network scaling laws for hierarchical targets.
problem Learning hierarchical multi-index models in neural networks.
method Sharp information-theoretic scaling laws derived for two-layer neural networks.
result Optimal rates achieved by a simple spectral estimator.
New method distinguishes stochastic from deterministic signals using excursion counts.
problem Distinguishing between stochastic and deterministic signals in discrete time series.
method Excursion and crossing theorems for continuous semimartingales, comparing empirical excursion counts to theoretical expectation.
result A robust data-driven diffusion test that classifies signals based on log-log slope deviation.
The paper extends Weyl's law to CROSSes, showing sharpness and polynomial improvement.
problem Understanding the error term in Weyl's law for different types of manifolds.
method Analyzing the Laplacian eigenvalues on Compact Rank One Symmetric Spaces (CROSSes).
result For CROSSes, the error term in Weyl's law is sharp, and for products of CROSSes, it can be polynomially improved.
New neural scaling law found for simple quadratic function.
problem Neural scaling laws and their predictions for model performance.
method Analysis of neural networks, lottery ticket ensembling, statistical interpretation.
result Found a new scaling law (α=1) for a simple quadratic function, contradicting previous theories. We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The excitation kernel of the counting process depends on the state process that, reciprocally…
Theory explains neural network scaling with dataset and model size.
problem Neural network scaling laws with dataset and model size.
method Identified variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behaviors.
result Four scaling regimes explained: infinite data, infinite width, resolution-limited, and large width.
New framework resolves central limit behavior in differential privacy.
problem Choosing appropriate privacy metrics in hypothesis testing.
method Infinitely divisible limit experiments and Le Cam's theory.
result Characterizes all limiting baseline trade-off functions in differential privacy.
We present a class of macroscopic models of the Limit Order Book to simulate the aggregate behaviour of market makers in response to trading flows. The resulting models are solved numerically and asymptotically, and a class of similarity solutions linked to order book formation and recovery is explored. The main result…
Two price regimes identified in limit order books: close and far from quotes.
problem Understanding the distribution and behavior of limit orders in limit order books.
method Analysis of limit order book data in dimensions of price, time, lifetime, and volume.
result Identification of two distinct regimes in the limit order book: close and far from quotes.
Pruning at initialization fails to find sparse subnetworks, revealing information-theoretic barriers.
problem Difficulty in finding sparse subnetworks without training the full model.
method Analysis of effective parameter count and mutual information between sparsity mask and data.
result Pruning at initialization cannot find sparse subnetworks due to high mutual information.
Anosov groups study matrix coefficients and orbit counting in symmetric spaces.
problem Anosov groups and their matrix coefficients in symmetric spaces.
method Asymptotic analysis of matrix coefficients and higher rank measures.
result Asymptotic behavior of matrix coefficients and orbit counting results.
Theory predicts neural scaling exponents from language statistics.
problem No existing theory could quantitatively predict neural scaling exponents.
method Isolated two key statistical properties of language.
result Derives a simple formula predicting neural scaling exponents.
We study the heat trace for both the drifting Laplacian as well as Schrödinger operators on compact Riemannian manifolds. In the case of a finite regularity potential or weight function, we prove the existence of a partial (six term) asymptotic expansion of the heat trace for small times as well as a suitable remainder…
Warped DLMs improve forecasting for count time series.
problem Limited options for modeling count time series data.
method Introduces a semiparametric methodology using warping of Gaussian DLMs.
result Demonstrates improved forecasting capabilities for count time series.