A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using dynamic optimal transport.
problem Addressing the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data.
method Establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using continuous-time flows, including non-Markovian settings, with tools from dynamic optimal transport.
result Characterise the conditions under which flow matching yields a unique, monotone, and rank-preserving counterfactual transport map, ensuring consistent inference.
Method for explaining machine learning survival models using counterfactuals.
problem Tackles the challenge of explaining survival models in machine learning.
method Introduces a condition based on the difference of mean times to event for counterfactual explanation. Reduces the problem to a convex optimization problem for Cox models and applies Particle Swarm Optimization for other models.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method through numerical experiments.
A new framework for robust and coherent counterfactual transports.
problem Estimating joint distributions over counterfactual outcomes in personalized decision-making and treatment risk assessment.
method Counterfactual cocycles that use algebraic structure to provide coherence and identifiability guarantees, bridging the gap between bijective SCMs and OT methods.
result Counterfactual cocycles provide state-of-the-art performance and noise-robustness across synthetic benchmarks and a real-world study.
In this paper, we study counterfactual fairness in text classification, which asks the question: How would the prediction change if the sensitive attribute referenced in the example were different? Toxicity classifiers demonstrate a counterfactual fairness issue by predicting that "Some people are gay" is toxic while "…
Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people how to obtain a different prediction. We posit that effective counterfactual explanations shoul…
Develops methods for finding counterfactual explanations in sequential decision making.
problem Finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes.
method Formal characterization of sequential actions and states using Markov decision processes and Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Introduces a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming.
result Algorithm finds optimal counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making.
The paper tackles counterfactual learning for stochastic policies with continuous actions.
problem Learning stochastic policies with continuous actions from logged data.
method Introduces a joint kernel embedding of contexts and actions to model continuous actions, and uses proximal point algorithms and smooth estimators for optimization.
result Demonstrates the benefits of using proximal point algorithms and smooth estimators for counterfactual learning.
The goal of counterfactual learning for statistical machine translation (SMT) is to optimize a target SMT system from logged data that consist of user feedback to translations that were predicted by another, historic SMT system. A challenge arises by the fact that risk-averse commercial SMT systems deterministically lo…
The paper tackles counterfactual inference with multioutput deep kernels in high-dimensional settings.
problem Performing counterfactual inference with observational data in high-dimensional settings with multiple actions and outcomes.
method The paper presents a general class of counterfactual multi-task deep kernels models based on Structural Causal Models (SCM) and Gaussian Processes.
result The models estimate causal effects and learn policies efficiently, scaling well with high dimensions.
This manuscript introduces the idea of using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) for the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) problem. Tapping into a rich existing literature, we show that DRO is a principled tool for counterfactual decision making. We also show that well-established solutions to the CRM probl…
Counterfactual learning from human bandit feedback describes a scenario where user feedback on the quality of outputs of a historic system is logged and used to improve a target system. We show how to apply this learning framework to neural semantic parsing. From a machine learning perspective, the key challenge lies i…
Machine learning promises to revolutionize clinical decision making and diagnosis. In medical diagnosis a doctor aims to explain a patient's symptoms by determining the diseases \emph{causing} them. However, existing diagnostic algorithms are purely associative, identifying diseases that are strongly correlated with a …
The paper tackles optimal policy learning with asymmetric counterfactual utilities in healthcare decisions.
problem Learning optimal policies from observed data with asymmetric counterfactual utilities.
method The approach involves identifying and minimizing the maximum expected utility loss using statistical decision theory and solving intermediate classification problems.
result One can learn minimax loss decision rules from observed data.
In semantic parsing for question-answering, it is often too expensive to collect gold parses or even gold answers as supervision signals. We propose to convert model outputs into a set of human-understandable statements which allow non-expert users to act as proofreaders, providing error markings as learning signals to…
To construct interpretable explanations that are consistent with the original ML model, counterfactual examples---showing how the model's output changes with small perturbations to the input---have been proposed. This paper extends the work in counterfactual explanations by addressing the challenge of feasibility of su…