Proposes a new method for estimating counterfactual treatment effects.
problem Uncertainty in identifying causal mechanisms from observational data.
method Introduces a parameterized family of causal mechanisms that generalize Gumbel-max, trained to minimize counterfactual effect variance.
result Trained mechanisms yield lower variance estimates of counterfactual treatment effects.
This study analyzes counterfactual explanations for student success models.
problem Improving trust in machine learning models for student success prediction.
method Comparison of counterfactual generation methods (WhatIf, Multi-Objective, Nearest Instance) for student success prediction models.
result WhatIf Counterfactual Explanations are more effective for student success prediction models.
Proposes a model to estimate treatment effects in complex multiagent systems over time.
problem Challenges in evaluating interventions in multiagent systems, especially with time-varying relationships and covariates.
method Interpretable counterfactual recurrent network leveraging graph variational recurrent neural networks and domain knowledge.
result Achieved lower estimation errors and more effective treatment timing than baselines in simulated and real-world scenarios.
Bayesian approach for modeling counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
problem Modeling the counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
method Bayesian conditional mean embeddings and novel Bayesian methods for estimating ultimate treatment effect.
result Quantifying epistemic uncertainty in the counterfactual distribution and off-policy evaluation.
The paper tackles counterfactual inference with multioutput deep kernels in high-dimensional settings.
problem Performing counterfactual inference with observational data in high-dimensional settings with multiple actions and outcomes.
method The paper presents a general class of counterfactual multi-task deep kernels models based on Structural Causal Models (SCM) and Gaussian Processes.
result The models estimate causal effects and learn policies efficiently, scaling well with high dimensions.
Introduces lookahead counterfactual fairness to account for downstream effects of ML predictions.
problem Downstream effects of ML predictions on individuals not considered by counterfactual fairness.
method Introduces lookahead counterfactual fairness (LCF), a new fairness notion that considers future status. Proposes an algorithm based on theoretical conditions.
result Proposes an algorithm to achieve lookahead counterfactual fairness and validates it on synthetic and real data.
New method improves counterfactual distribution learning for high-dimensional outcomes.
problem Counterfactual distribution learning for high-dimensional outcomes with concentrated structure.
method Geometry-adaptive diffusion-guided smoothing estimators combining causal nuisance adjustment and local outcome geometry.
result Geometry-adaptive methods show steeper error decay in semi-synthetic experiments.
NCoRE learns counterfactual representations for combined treatments.
problem Estimating individual response to multiple simultaneous interventions.
method Neural conditional representation with modulators for cross-treatment interactions.
result NCoRE significantly outperforms existing methods in counterfactual treatment effect estimation.
Generates counterfactuals in target domain from source domain observations.
problem Cross-domain learning with domain shifts and lack of parallel datasets.
method Unsupervised, Neural Causal Models, Joint Causal Graphs, Effect-Intrinsic vs Domain-Intrinsic Variables.
result Framework generates counterfactuals that closely match ground truth.
New measure captures differences across entire distributions of counterfactual outcomes.
problem Capturing differences across entire distributions of counterfactual outcomes.
method Entropic optimal transport measure, statistical functional, smooth transformation of embeddings.
result Established first-order and second-order pathwise differentiability.
Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional distances, focusing on two kinds of target parameters. The first is the counterfa…
Unified framework for counterfactual survival analysis improves treatment effect estimation.
problem Limited methods for counterfactual inference with survival outcomes.
method Unified framework for survival outcomes, nonparametric hazard ratio metric.
result Significantly outperforms alternatives in survival-outcome prediction and treatment-effect estimation.
Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people how to obtain a different prediction. We posit that effective counterfactual explanations shoul…
PO-Flow models potential and counterfactual outcomes for personalized treatment decisions.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects from observational data.
method Continuous normalizing flow (CNF) framework for causal inference.
result Unified approach to potential outcome prediction, treatment effect estimation, and counterfactual prediction.
Flow IV uses IVs to infer counterfactuals in complex models.
problem Identifying causal effects and counterfactual reasoning in nonseparable outcome models.
method Utilizes instrumental variables and normalizing flows to estimate and infer counterfactual outcomes.
result Identifies a method to make causal inferences from observed data in nonseparable models.
Study uses artificial counterfactuals to show lockdowns reduced US case and death counts.
problem Impact of lockdowns on US case and death counts during the pandemic.
method Artificial counterfactual approach comparing states with and without lockdowns.
result Average two times more cases would have occurred without lockdowns.
The paper introduces a DRM for causal inference, offering a flexible method to analyze counterfactual distributions.
problem Estimating mean causal effects is limited; a distributional perspective is needed for a more thorough understanding.
method The paper employs a semiparametric density ratio model (DRM) with an empirical likelihood (EL) approach to estimate counterfactual distribution functions.
result The DRM framework enables direct and transparent causal inference from a distributional perspective, validated by numerical studies.
Proposes CCME framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in complex distributions.
method Embeds conditional distributions into RKHS, develops meta-estimators for CCME.
result Establishes finite-sample convergence rates and double robustness for CCME estimators.
New framework improves counterfactual predictions using causal inference.
problem Challenges in predicting counterfactual outcomes with limited covariates and high-dimensional outcomes.
method Variational Bayesian causal inference framework for counterfactual generative modeling.
result Framework encourages disentangled exogenous noise and correct identification of causal effects.
Counterfactual inference has become a ubiquitous tool in online advertisement, recommendation systems, medical diagnosis, and econometrics. Accurate modeling of outcome distributions associated with different interventions -- known as counterfactual distributions -- is crucial for the success of these applications. In …
This paper tackles confounding biases in data augmentation.
problem Mitigating spurious correlations and confounding variables in training data.
method Formal analysis and counterfactual data augmentation.
result Removing confounding biases leads to invariant features and better generalization.
Proposes a method to create fair, robust predictors that remain consistent across different scenarios.
problem Creating fair and robust machine learning models that behave consistently across different scenarios.
method Graphical criteria and a model-agnostic framework called CIP based on HSCIC.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of CIP in enforcing counterfactual invariance across various datasets.
Estimates individual treatment effects using gradient interpolation and kernel smoothing.
problem Estimating individualized continuous treatment effects in observational data.
method Augment training data with independently sampled treatments and inferred counterfactual outcomes using gradient interpolation and kernel smoothing.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on counterfactual estimation error.
CRN model estimates treatment effects over time using adversarial balancing.
problem Estimating treatment effects over time in medical settings.
method Adversarial domain balancing to remove time-varying confounders.
result CRN achieves lower error in estimating counterfactuals and treatment timing.
Proposes a new method for algorithmic recourse in confounded settings.
problem Provides actionable recommendations for individuals affected by automated decisions.
method Relaxes assumptions of no hidden confounding and additive noise, requiring only causal graph and confounding structure.
result Bounds the expected counterfactual effect of recourse actions, ensuring favourable outcomes in expectation.
MCD automates counterfactual design searches for multi-modal tasks.
problem Designing for multi-objective goals and complex constraints.
method Model-agnostic counterfactual search method for multi-modal design modifications.
result MCD streamlines and automates counterfactual search, recommending effective design modifications.
SD-SCMs generate counterfactual data for causal inference benchmarks.
problem Benchmarking causal inference methods with realistic data.
method Sequence-driven structural causal models (SD-SCMs) for causal inference.
result State-of-the-art methods struggle with individual treatment effect estimation.
GWIB improves counterfactual regression by balancing latent distributions and reducing selection bias.
problem Selection bias between control and treatment groups negatively impacts counterfactual regression performance.
method GWIB uses Gromov-Wasserstein information bottleneck to maximize mutual information between covariates and outcomes while penalizing kernelized mutual information between latent representations and covariates.
result GWIB consistently outperforms state-of-the-art CFR methods in ITE estimation tasks.
Study reveals gaps between simulated and real-world treatment effect evaluation metrics.
problem Evaluation of treatment effect estimation models differs between academic and practical settings.
method Comprehensive empirical study comparing semi-simulated benchmarks and real-world datasets.
result Counterfactual metrics do not reliably predict observable metrics, and rankings from simulated benchmarks do not generalize to real-world data.
Generative models explain machine learning predictions with counterfactual instances.
problem Generating human-interpretable insights into machine learning model predictions.
method Sparse counterfactual explanations using conditional generative models.
result Single forward pass generates batches of counterfactual instances.
A new method generates counterfactual treatment outcomes for time-varying treatments.
problem Estimating counterfactual outcomes for time-varying treatments with high-dimensional outcomes.
method Conditional generative framework with inverse probability re-weighting.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in generating high-quality counterfactual samples.
Model predicts counterfactuals under domain shift and inaccessible variables.
problem Runtime domain corruption impairs counterfactual prediction.
method Subsumes counterfactual prediction under domain adaptation, uses adversarial domain adaptation to reduce distribution disparity.
result VEGAN outperforms baselines in individual-level treatment effect estimation.
DECE visualizes machine learning decisions with counterfactual explanations.
problem Making machine learning models transparent and explainable.
method Interactive visualization system supporting counterfactual explanations at instance- and subgroup-levels.
result DECE enables users to explore and understand machine learning model decisions.
Paper models treatment effects by clustering patients with distinct survival characteristics.
problem Estimating treatment efficacy in clinical settings with censored outcomes.
method Latent variable approach to model heterogeneous treatment effects.
result The latent structure can mediate base survival rates and reveal actionable phenotypes.
Paper proposes a method to estimate counterfactual outcomes without a known SCM.
problem Estimating counterfactual outcomes without a known structural causal model.
method Introduces rank preservation assumption and a novel ideal loss for unbiased learning of counterfactual outcomes.
result The proposed method is effective and unbiased, as shown by theoretical analysis and experiments.
This study quantifies uncertainty in comparing treatments using RCTs with before-and-after measures.
problem Uncertainty in comparing treatments using RCTs with before-and-after measures.
method New statistical modeling principle called ETZ enables counterfactual uncertainty quantification (CUQ) in RCTs with Before-and-After Repeated Measures.
result CUQ typically has lower variability than factual uncertainty quantification and can be achieved in RCTs.
We develop a novel method for counterfactual analysis based on observational data using prediction intervals for units under different exposures. Unlike methods that target heterogeneous or conditional average treatment effects of an exposure, the proposed approach aims to take into account the irreducible dispersions …
Although deep reinforcement learning agents have produced impressive results in many domains, their decision making is difficult to explain to humans. To address this problem, past work has mainly focused on explaining why an action was chosen in a given state. A different type of explanation that is useful is a counte…
New method generates plausible counterfactuals for time series classification.
problem Generating realistic counterfactuals for time series data.
method Gradient-based optimization with soft-DTW alignment and multi-faceted loss function.
result Our method outperforms existing approaches in temporal realism and distributional alignment.
G-Net uses deep learning for complex counterfactual outcome prediction.
problem Estimating counterfactual outcomes under dynamic treatment strategies.
method G-Net is a sequential deep learning framework for G-computation.
result G-Net can handle complex temporal data and provide accurate treatment effects.
TCFimt forecasts causal effects of multiple interventions from individual data.
problem Estimating causal effects of temporal multi-interventions from individual data.
method TCFimt uses adversarial tasks in seq2seq framework to alleviate bias and contrastive learning to decouple effects.
result TCFimt outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting future outcomes and choosing optimal treatments.
Self-Distilled Disentanglement improves counterfactual predictions by separating variables.
problem Improving counterfactual predictions in the presence of confounders and unobserved variables.
method Self-Distilled Disentanglement framework based on information theory.
result Effective counterfactual inference in synthetic and real-world datasets.
DoFlow models time series data for causal forecasting and anomaly detection.
problem Forecasting and causal reasoning in multivariate time series.
method Flow-based generative model over causal DAGs.
result Accurate interventional and counterfactual forecasting, anomaly detection.
CFRecs uses counterfactual reasoning to improve graph-based recommendations in real estate.
problem Improving model interpretability and actionable insights in graph-based recommender systems.
method A two-stage architecture combining GNN and Graph-VAE to propose minimal yet impactful changes in graph structure and node attributes.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in delivering actionable recommendations for home buyers and sellers.
Proposes sparse local and regional counterfactual rules for robust recourses.
problem Challenges in counterfactual explanations, especially stability, synthesis, and implementation.
method Probabilistic framework using Random Forest to derive sparse local and regional counterfactual rules.
result Effective recourses derived from high-density regions, providing sparse and robust counterfactual rules.
Estimation of individual treatment effect in observational data is complicated due to the challenges of confounding and selection bias. A useful inferential framework to address this is the counterfactual (potential outcomes) model which takes the hypothetical stance of asking what if an individual had received both tr…
Paper introduces EnCounteR for estimating causal effects using encouragement data.
problem Challenges in estimating causal effects due to incomplete randomization and limited encouragement data.
method Introduces a generalized IV estimator, EnCounteR, leveraging both observational and encouragement data.
result Demonstrates superior performance of EnCounteR over existing methods.
Counterfactual evaluation of novel treatment assignment functions (e.g., advertising algorithms and recommender systems) is one of the most crucial causal inference problems for practitioners. Traditionally, randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) are performed to evaluate treatment assignment functions. However, such…