DeDUCE efficiently generates realistic counterfactuals for image classifiers.
problem Generating accurate counterfactual explanations for large image classifiers.
method Developed a new algorithm using spectral normalization to efficiently generate counterfactuals.
result Our algorithm consistently produces counterfactuals closer to the original inputs with comparable realism.
New method generates plausible counterfactuals for time series classification.
problem Generating realistic counterfactuals for time series data.
method Gradient-based optimization with soft-DTW alignment and multi-faceted loss function.
result Our method outperforms existing approaches in temporal realism and distributional alignment.
DiffLOB models future market conditions for better decision-making.
problem Passive generative models cannot explore hypothetical market scenarios.
method Regime-conditioned diffusion model for counterfactual LOB generation.
result DiffLOB enables realistic and controllable generation of LOB trajectories.
We establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using dynamic optimal transport.
problem Addressing the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data.
method Establish a foundation for multivariate counterfactual identification using continuous-time flows, including non-Markovian settings, with tools from dynamic optimal transport.
result Characterise the conditions under which flow matching yields a unique, monotone, and rank-preserving counterfactual transport map, ensuring consistent inference.
New approach uses 'forward-looking' counterfactuals for treatment choice.
problem Using traditional 'retrospective' counterfactuals in treatment choice leads to counterintuitive results.
method Introduces 'counterfactual treatment choice' for forward-looking counterfactuals.
result Mismatches between interventional and forward-looking counterfactuals can lead to counterintuitive results.
DeepBC method computes backtracking counterfactuals in deep causal models.
problem Computing valid counterfactuals in complex causal models.
method DeepBC method using Langevin Monte Carlo or constrained optimization.
result DeepBC provides causally compliant, versatile, and modular counterfactuals.
Paper simplifies complex causal identifiability problems with exogenous isomorphism.
problem Achieving consistent answers to causal questions in Structural Causal Models.
method Introducing exogenous isomorphism and proposing ∼ E I \sim_{\mathrm{EI}} ∼ EI -identifiability. result Unified and generalized theories for practical applications in counterfactual reasoning.
Proposes a method to create fair, robust predictors that remain consistent across different scenarios.
problem Creating fair and robust machine learning models that behave consistently across different scenarios.
method Graphical criteria and a model-agnostic framework called CIP based on HSCIC.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of CIP in enforcing counterfactual invariance across various datasets.
Estimates outcomes under hypothetical scenarios using a flexible framework.
problem Adapting to sudden shifts in treatment patterns.
method Doubly robust estimator using incremental interventions.
result Achieves n \sqrt{n} n -consistency and asymptotic normality. EXOC framework uses auxiliary variables for counterfactual fairness in machine learning.
problem Balancing fairness and predictive accuracy in models with sensitive attributes.
method EXOC framework uses auxiliary variables to define an auxiliary node and a control node for counterfactual fairness.
result EXOC framework outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in achieving counterfactual fairness.
This manuscript contributes a general and practical framework for casting a Markov process model of a system at equilibrium as a structural causal model, and carrying out counterfactual inference. Markov processes mathematically describe the mechanisms in the system, and predict the system's equilibrium behavior upon i…
Optimizes wireless power control using graph neural networks and counterfactual optimization.
problem Mitigating interference in wireless networks with multiple transmitter-receiver pairs.
method Graph neural network architecture combined with unsupervised primal-dual counterfactual optimization.
result Guarantees a minimum rate constraint that adapts to network size, balancing user rates.
The goal of counterfactual learning for statistical machine translation (SMT) is to optimize a target SMT system from logged data that consist of user feedback to translations that were predicted by another, historic SMT system. A challenge arises by the fact that risk-averse commercial SMT systems deterministically lo…
Generative adversarial approach for satellite image time series land cover classification.
problem Enhance interpretability of land cover classification models.
method Generative adversarial counterfactual approach for multi-class land cover classification.
result Discovery of interesting information on land cover class relationships and sparser, interpretable solutions.
Proposes counterfactual explanations for deep two-sample tests on high-dimensional data.
problem Limited interpretability of deep two-sample tests on high-dimensional data.
method Combines diffusion autoencoder and pretrained deep two-sample test model to generate counterfactuals.
result Counterfactual transformations increase p-values, indicating closer distribution similarity.
GWIB improves counterfactual regression by balancing latent distributions and reducing selection bias.
problem Selection bias between control and treatment groups negatively impacts counterfactual regression performance.
method GWIB uses Gromov-Wasserstein information bottleneck to maximize mutual information between covariates and outcomes while penalizing kernelized mutual information between latent representations and covariates.
result GWIB consistently outperforms state-of-the-art CFR methods in ITE estimation tasks.
Proposes a scalable method for counterfactual prediction using machine learning.
problem De-bias causal estimators with high-dimensional data in observational studies.
method Uses entropy balancing to learn weights minimizing Jensen-Shannon divergence, leading to robust counterfactual predictions.
result Consistent causal estimation if either propensity score or outcome model is correctly specified.
CFRecs uses counterfactual reasoning to improve graph-based recommendations in real estate.
problem Improving model interpretability and actionable insights in graph-based recommender systems.
method A two-stage architecture combining GNN and Graph-VAE to propose minimal yet impactful changes in graph structure and node attributes.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in delivering actionable recommendations for home buyers and sellers.
COMRECGC finds common recourse for global counterfactual explanations in GNNs.
problem Finding common recourse for global counterfactual explanations in GNNs.
method Formalized the common recourse explanation problem and designed COMRECGC algorithm.
result COMRECGC outperforms strong baselines on four real-world graph datasets.
New method tightens bounds on causation probabilities using independent datasets.
problem Challenging point identification of causation probabilities without strong assumptions.
method Imposes counterfactual consistency between SCMs constructed from independent datasets and uses conditional mutual information.
result Significantly tighter bounds on causation probabilities are established.
FOCUS method forecasts counterfactuals in panel data with time series dynamics.
problem Forecasting unobserved potential outcomes in causal inference with missing entries and latent factors.
method FOCUS extends matrix completion methods by leveraging time series dynamics of latent factors.
result FOCUS method outperforms existing benchmarks in predicting future counterfactuals.
Study shows refugee matching gains are robust to different evaluation methods.
problem Stability of refugee matching gains under various evaluation methods.
method Used multiple off-policy evaluation methods including IPW and AIPW.
result Impact estimates remain consistent in magnitude and statistically significant.
Proposes CST algorithm to handle partial feedback in counterfactual classification.
problem Limited feedback in settings like pricing and marketing.
method Self-training algorithm with pseudolabeling and input consistency loss.
result Improves model performance on synthetic and real datasets.
Multi-SpaCE generates valid counterfactual explanations for multivariate time series data.
problem Lack of transparency in deep learning models for multivariate time series data.
method Multi-objective counterfactual explanation method using NSGA-II for multivariate time series data.
result Ensures perfect validity and superior performance compared to existing methods.
Study counterfactuals in combinatorial choice using a representative agent model.
problem Analyzing decision-making from aggregated binary polytope data.
method Nonparametric approach based on a representative agent model, solving polynomial and mixed-integer convex programs.
result Developed a method for counterfactual prediction that works even under model misspecification.
CDM models counterfactual outcomes in longitudinal data with improved accuracy.
problem Predicting counterfactual outcomes in longitudinal data with complex time-dependent confounding.
method Causal Diffusion Model (CDM) using denoising diffusion architecture with relational self-attention.
result CDM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in generating full probabilistic distributions of counterfactual outcomes.
Method generates counterfactual explanations for graph classifiers.
problem Generating high-quality explanations for graph predictions.
method Permutation equivariant graph variational autoencoder to traverse latent space.
result Empirically validated model is high-performing and robust.
Counterfactual learning from observational data involves learning a classifier on an entire population based on data that is observed conditioned on a selection policy. This work considers this problem in an active setting, where the learner additionally has access to unlabeled examples and can choose to get a subset o…
A new runtime for AI agents calculates risks in real-time.
problem Managing risks and liabilities in autonomous AI actions.
method A time-consistent counterfactual actuarial layer with explicit underwriting boundaries.
result Establishes a well-defined toll and guarantees executed-action budgets.
To construct interpretable explanations that are consistent with the original ML model, counterfactual examples---showing how the model's output changes with small perturbations to the input---have been proposed. This paper extends the work in counterfactual explanations by addressing the challenge of feasibility of su…
Proposes a framework to explain KS deterioration in credit risk models.
problem Inconsistent and ad hoc diagnosis of KS decline in credit risk models.
method Counterfactual diagnostic framework attributing KS decline to sampling variability, portfolio composition, covariate shift, and residual deterioration.
result The proposed approach provides more interpretable and governance-relevant explanations than threshold-based review alone.
CONFETTI improves interpretability of deep learning models for MTS by providing counterfactual explanations.
problem Lack of transparency in deep learning models for multivariate time series classification.
method CONFETTI is a novel multi-objective counterfactual explanation method that balances prediction confidence, proximity, and sparsity.
result CONFETTI outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various metrics, improving interpretability and decision support.
This work benchmarks counterfactual methods in time series classification.
problem Lack of benchmarking studies for counterfactual methods in time series classification.
method Redesign metrics for sparsity, plausibility, and consistency; systematically benchmark 6 CF methods on 30 datasets.
result Performance of CF methods varies across metrics and models.
This research debiases machine unlearning by using counterfactual examples.
problem Machine unlearning processes can be biased, leading to inaccurate results.
method Intervention-based approach using counterfactual examples to mitigate biases.
result The method outperforms existing baselines on evaluation metrics.
TSC improves causal effect estimation in panel data.
problem Estimating causal effects in panel data with a single treated unit.
method Targeted synthetic control method that refines initial weights through a one-dimensional targeted update.
result TSC consistently improves estimation accuracy over state-of-the-art SCM baselines.
What is the most statistically efficient way to do off-policy evaluation and optimization with batch data from bandit feedback? For log data generated by contextual bandit algorithms, we consider offline estimators for the expected reward from a counterfactual policy. Our estimators are shown to have lowest variance in…
SD-SCMs generate counterfactual data for causal inference benchmarks.
problem Benchmarking causal inference methods with realistic data.
method Sequence-driven structural causal models (SD-SCMs) for causal inference.
result State-of-the-art methods struggle with individual treatment effect estimation.
R package for counterfactual explanation methods.
problem Lack of unified interfaces for counterfactual explanation methods.
method Developed a modular R6-based interface for three existing counterfactual methods and proposed extensions.
result Comparison of implemented methods' quality and runtime behavior.
Study reveals gaps between simulated and real-world treatment effect evaluation metrics.
problem Evaluation of treatment effect estimation models differs between academic and practical settings.
method Comprehensive empirical study comparing semi-simulated benchmarks and real-world datasets.
result Counterfactual metrics do not reliably predict observable metrics, and rankings from simulated benchmarks do not generalize to real-world data.
Post-hoc explanations of machine learning models are crucial for people to understand and act on algorithmic predictions. An intriguing class of explanations is through counterfactuals, hypothetical examples that show people how to obtain a different prediction. We posit that effective counterfactual explanations shoul…
A new method models continuous-time counterfactual outcomes using neural controlled differential equations.
problem Estimating personalized healthcare outcomes over irregularly sampled data.
method Interpreting data as samples from a continuous-time process, modeling latent trajectory using controlled differential equations, and using adversarial training for time-dependent confounding.
result TE-CDE consistently outperforms existing approaches in irregularly sampled scenarios.
A new framework for robust and coherent counterfactual transports.
problem Estimating joint distributions over counterfactual outcomes in personalized decision-making and treatment risk assessment.
method Counterfactual cocycles that use algebraic structure to provide coherence and identifiability guarantees, bridging the gap between bijective SCMs and OT methods.
result Counterfactual cocycles provide state-of-the-art performance and noise-robustness across synthetic benchmarks and a real-world study.
The paper analyzes counterfactual invariance and its relation to conditional independence.
problem Understanding the relationship between counterfactual invariance and conditional independence.
method Theoretical analysis of existing definitions, graphical implications, and mathematical proofs.
result Counterfactual invariance implies conditional independence, but not the other way around.
New framework improves counterfactual predictions using causal inference.
problem Challenges in predicting counterfactual outcomes with limited covariates and high-dimensional outcomes.
method Variational Bayesian causal inference framework for counterfactual generative modeling.
result Framework encourages disentangled exogenous noise and correct identification of causal effects.
Kernel ridge regression for causal inference with missing data.
problem Estimating treatment effects with missing data in selected samples.
method Kernel ridge regression estimators for nonparametric dose response curves and semiparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates for continuous treatment, root-n consistency for discrete treatment.
Counterfactual data augmentations may not ensure OOD robustness if performed by a context-guessing machine.
problem Deep learning models lack out-of-distribution robustness due to reliance on spurious features.
method Theoretical analysis and demonstration of counterfactual data augmentations performed by a context-guessing machine.
result Counterfactual data augmentations by a context-guessing machine do not lead to robust OOD classifiers.
New method improves model reconstruction using counterfactuals and polytope theory.
problem Reconstructing models with minimal input changes and avoiding decision boundary shifts.
method Using polytope theory to derive loss functions that treat counterfactuals differently from ordinary instances.
result Improves fidelity between target and surrogate model predictions on multiple datasets.
New method debiases counterfactual distributions using observational data.
problem Estimating counterfactual distributions under interventions without relying on observational data.
method Flow-matching approach to learn counterfactual distributions from observational data.
result Deconfounding flows outperform existing debiased counterfactual distribution estimators.