A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A CNN-based method detects and counts corn kernels from images.
This appendix proves CORN's universal consistency. One of Bin's PhD thesis examiner (Special thanks to Vladimir Vovk from Royal Holloway, University of London) suggested that CORN is universal and provided sketch proof of Lemma 1.6, which is the key of this proof. Based on the proof in Gyprfi et al. [2006], we thus pro…
Corn yield prediction is beneficial as it provides valuable information about production and prices prior the harvest. Publicly available high-quality corn yield prediction can help address emergent information asymmetry problems and in doing so improve price efficiency in futures markets. This paper is the first to em…
This paper estimates VaR for corn and soybean markets using jump processes.
For the first time, we apply the wavelet coherence methodology on biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) and a wide range of related commodities (gasoline, diesel, crude oil, corn, wheat, soybeans, sugarcane and rapeseed oil). This way, we are able to investigate dynamics of correlations in time and across scales (frequencie…
Study shows post-COVID commodity futures returns and volatility changed for different products.
Crop yield forecasting is the methodology of predicting crop yields prior to harvest. The availability of accurate yield prediction frameworks have enormous implications from multiple standpoints, including impact on the crop commodity futures markets, formulation of agricultural policy, as well as crop insurance ratin…
Time and Sales of corn futures traded electronically on the CME Group Globex are studied. Theories of continuous prices turn upside down reality of intra-day trading. Prices and their increments are discrete and obey lattice probability distributions. A function for systematic evolution of futures trading volume is pro…
Portfolio selection is the central task for assets management, but it turns out to be very challenging. Methods based on pattern matching, particularly the CORN-K algorithm, have achieved promising performance on several stock markets. A key shortage of the existing pattern matching methods, however, is that the risk i…
Conversion of corn to ethanol in the US since 2005 has been a major cause of global food price increases during that time and has been shown to be ineffective in achieving US energy independence and reducing environmental impact. We make three key statements to enhance understanding and communication about ethanol prod…
Study measures risk spillovers between US and China's agricultural futures markets.
Machine learning improves measuring climate adaptation impacts.
Develops a binary tree model for option pricing with skew dynamics.
The emerge of new technologies to synthesize and analyze big data with high-performance computing, has increased our capacity to more accurately predict crop yields. Recent research has shown that Machine learning (ML) can provide reasonable predictions, faster, and with higher flexibility compared to simulation crop m…
Environmental stresses such as drought and heat can cause substantial yield loss in agriculture. As such, hybrid crops that are tolerant to drought and heat stress would produce more consistent yields compared to the hybrids that are not tolerant to these stresses. In the 2019 Syngenta Crop Challenge, Syngenta released…
Recent automated crop mapping via supervised learning-based methods have demonstrated unprecedented improvement over classical techniques. However, most crop mapping studies are limited to same-year crop mapping in which the present year's labeled data is used to predict the same year's crop map. Classification accurac…
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differin…
Crop yield prediction is extremely challenging due to its dependence on multiple factors such as crop genotype, environmental factors, management practices, and their interactions. This paper presents a deep learning framework using convolutional neural networks (CNN) and recurrent neural networks (RNN) for crop yield …
Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that accurately describes historical food prices. During the last six years, high and fluctu…
Proposes a new method for rank-consistent ordinal regression without weight-sharing constraints.
edPLS adds Gaussian noise to PLS regression to protect data privacy.
The paper examines spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon, and climate markets.
Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value …
Functional PLS improves prediction and inference for scalar responses from functional predictors.
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model for commodities that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. Conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined are given, and five different specifications of the seasonality pattern are proposed. We calcula…
The paper classifies U.S. crop types using hyperspectral satellite imagery.
Experimental corn hybrids are created in plant breeding programs by crossing two parents, so-called inbred and tester, together. Identification of best parent combinations for crossing is challenging since the total number of possible cross combinations of parents is large and it is impractical to test all possible cro…
Study predicts doubling of U.S. maize insurance claims due to climate change.
A new method for CT using graph-based regularization.
Study analyzes climate impact on agricultural prices, offering insurance solutions.
Study finds long-range dependence in financial markets, but deep generative models struggle to replicate it.
Develops adaptive algorithms for sustainable fertilizer use in agriculture.
Many unsupervised kernel methods rely on the estimation of the kernel covariance operator (kernel CO) or kernel cross-covariance operator (kernel CCO). Both kernel CO and kernel CCO are sensitive to contaminated data, even when bounded positive definite kernels are used. To the best of our knowledge, there are few well…
Survey of kernels, RKHS, and their applications in machine learning.
To the best of our knowledge, there are no general well-founded robust methods for statistical unsupervised learning. Most of the unsupervised methods explicitly or implicitly depend on the kernel covariance operator (kernel CO) or kernel cross-covariance operator (kernel CCO). They are sensitive to contaminated data, …
Deep neural kernels and Laplace kernel have equivalent RKHS on spheres.
Kernel methods linked to feature subspaces and maximal correlation kernels.
PGF kernels analyze spherical data using generalized RBF kernels.
Adapts manifold structure for better clustering performance.
Optimal kernel in KR can be data-dependent, improving model performance.
Quantum kernels can be efficiently embedded into classical feature spaces.
New random feature maps for Laplacian and related kernels.
New method for learning with non-Euclidean data using decomposable kernels.
New estimator reduces kernel mean estimation error.
We present Random Partition Kernels, a new class of kernels derived by demonstrating a natural connection between random partitions of objects and kernels between those objects. We show how the construction can be used to create kernels from methods that would not normally be viewed as random partitions, such as Random…
The NNGP kernel's predictions closely match those of the Matern kernel under certain conditions.
In this paper, we compare 5 different nonlinear kernels: min-max, RBF, fRBF (folded RBF), acos, and acos-, on a wide range of publicly available datasets. The proposed fRBF kernel performs very similarly to the RBF kernel. Both RBF and fRBF kernels require an important tuning parameter (). Interestingly, for a …
New kernels allow learning from non-separable data.