The study analyzes macroeconomic factors affecting copper futures volatility and long-term correlation with S&P 500.
problem Understanding the impact of macroeconomic variables on copper futures volatility and long-term correlation.
method Employed GARCH-MIDAS and DCC-MIDAS modeling frameworks to examine the influence of low-frequency macroeconomic variables on copper futures returns and long-term correlation with S&P 500.
result PPI is the most efficient macroeconomic variable impacting copper futures returns, and MIDAS filter improves model fitness and long-run relationship.
The study compares econometric and deep learning models for forecasting COMEX copper futures volatility.
problem Forecasting volatility of COMEX copper futures across different time intervals.
method Econometric models (GARCH, HAR) and deep learning models (RNN, LSTM, GRU) applied to daily and hourly data.
result Deep learning models outperform econometric models in hourly data, but HAR remains the best overall for daily data.
The paper analyzes market risk factors for a mining company using a VAR model with stable distribution.
problem Understanding mid- and long-term dynamics of market risk factors for a mining company.
method Two-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model with α-stable distribution, identifying two regimes.
result Derives dynamics of copper price in PLN, crucial for company risk exposure.
A new HOM model improves forecasting of Indian base metal prices.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting base metal prices in the Indian market.
method A Higher Order Markovian (HOM) model with varying order based on market delay.
result The HOM model consistently outperforms the standard Markovian model in forecasting.
Deep-learning CNN automates Cu alloy grain size evaluation.
problem Automating the evaluation of Cu alloy grain size to reduce labor and improve accuracy.
method Deep-learning convolutional neural network (CNN) for automated image acquisition and processing.
result Achieved 91.1% classification accuracy on Cu alloy sub-images.
This paper introduces a novel monotone curve estimation framework based on convex duality.
problem Estimating smooth, continuous, and monotonic curves in data.
method Convex duality and optimal transport theories.
result Established statistical guarantees for monotone curve estimates.
This paper studies the problem of optimally extracting nonrenewable natural resource in light of various financial and economic restrictions and constraints. Taking into account the fact that the market values of the main natural resources i.e. oil, natural gas, copper,...,etc, fluctuate randomly following global and s…
Optimizes QoS in FSO links over South Africa using ensemble learning.
problem Impact of weather on QoS in FSO links.
method Ensemble learning models (Random Forest, ADaBoost Regression, Stacking Regression, Gradient Boost Regression, Multilayer Neural Network) applied to meteorological data.
result Significant enhancement in QoS with RMSE and R-squared values of 0.0032 and 0.9906 respectively at George.
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a multiplicative stochastic evolution, using Wishart and singular multivariate beta distribu…
This paper studies the optimal extraction and taxation of nonrenewable natural resources. It is well known that the market values of the main strategic resources such as oil, natural gas, uranium, copper,..., etc, fluctuate randomly following global and seasonal macroeconomic parameters, these values are modeled using …
A new random forest algorithm uncovers feature interdependencies better than traditional methods.
problem Tackles the sub-optimality of greedy decision tree implementations in random forests.
method Presented a 'stepwise lookahead' variation of random forests that considers multiple split nodes simultaneously.
result Significantly outperforms greedy random forests in uncovering feature interdependencies, especially in high-noise environments.
The assessment of co-movement among metals is crucial to better understand the behaviors of the metal prices and the interactions with others that affect the changes in prices. In this study, both Wavelet Analysis and VARMA (Vector Autoregressive Moving Average) models are utilized. First, Multiple Wavelet Coherence (M…
Paper introduces impact curves for evaluating binarized regression models with varying costs.
problem Evaluating binarized regression models with varying costs and instance-specific utility.
method Proposes impact curves to optimize binary decisions across different utilities.
result Impact curves identify conditions where one model is favored over another and quantify model improvement.
Peru's abundant natural resources and friendly trade policies has made the country a major economic player in both South America and the global community. Consequently, exports are playing an increasingly important role in Peru's national economy. Indeed, growing from 13.1% as of 1994, exports now contribute approximat…
ANNs predict SAFARI-1 neutron fluxes with uncertainties.
problem Uncertainty quantification in ANN predictions for SAFARI-1.
method Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN VI) for uncertainty quantification.
result Uncertainty bands envelop noisy measurement data points, indicating good prediction and generalization.
Kriging predicts futures prices by accounting for trends and bid-ask spreads.
problem Predicting futures prices with trends and bid-ask spreads.
method Bayesian Kriging technique to model term structure.
result Kriging accurately predicts futures prices with embedded trends and bid-ask spreads.
Study reveals dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets.
problem Exploring interdependence between Peanut and other agricultural commodities in Chinese futures market.
method Constructed multivariate linear regression models and used VAR and DCC-EGARCH models for dynamic relationships. Applied MLP, CNN, and LSTM neural networks for price prediction.
result Significant dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets through DCC-EGARCH, limited influence from other futures markets through VAR model.
Proposes a new VIX futures trading strategy based on term structure modeling.
problem Optimizing VIX futures trading based on term structure.
method Assumes VIX futures term structure follows a Markov model. Uses a deep neural network to model the functional dependence between VIX futures curve, positions, and expected utility.
result Backtests show reasonable portfolio performance and optimal long/short positions.
Derives pricing formulas for perpetual futures contracts.
problem Ensuring fair pricing of perpetual futures contracts without expiration.
method Explicit expressions derived for various types of perpetual contracts, including linear, inverse, and quantos futures.
result Futures price is the risk-neutral expectation of the spot price sampled at a random time reflecting funding payments.
Hidden Markov model predicts profitable statistical arbitrage in Shanghai crude oil futures.
problem Statistical arbitrage opportunities in international crude oil futures markets.
method Hidden Markov model for cointegration spread, mean-reverting regime-switching process.
result Statistical arbitrage strategies involving Shanghai crude oil futures are profitable.
Calibrates carbon futures option pricing using high-frequency data.
problem Estimating equity and variance risk premia for carbon futures options.
method Multifactor stochastic volatility framework with jumps, employing indirect inference.
result Provides insights into carbon futures and option dynamics.
Futures trading is the core of futures business, and it is considered as one of the typical complex systems. To investigate the complexity of futures trading, we employ the analytical method of complex networks. First, we use real trading records from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to construct futures trading networks,…
The paper analyzes the pricing of a new compute futures asset.
problem Uncertainty in AI adoption and pricing of compute capital.
method An asset-pricing framework for compute futures, including synthetic futures pricing.
result Preliminary evidence suggests a positive compute risk premium.
Study improves prediction of commodity futures using multi-factor model.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting commodity futures prices.
method State-space functional regression model incorporating yield curve dynamics.
result Functional regression model outperforms Schwartz-Smith model in estimating short-end of futures curve.
Study examines how arbitrage between ETF and futures affects market liquidity during crashes.
problem Impact of arbitrage between leveraged ETF and futures on market liquidity during market crashes.
method Artificial market simulations to investigate liquidity changes in L-ETF and futures markets.
result Arbitrage trading affects liquidity supply from one market to another during market crashes.
Model prices commodity futures and index options.
problem Deriving accurate prices for derivative contracts on commodity futures and indices.
method Stochastic local volatility model for commodity futures.
result Model accurately recovers prices of derivative claims.
We consider portfolio optimization in futures markets. We model the entire futures price curve at once as a solution of a stochastic partial differential equation. The agents objective is to maximize her utility from the final wealth when investing in futures contracts. We study a class of futures price curve models wh…
Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.
problem Challenges in predicting short-term directional movement of futures contracts.
method Engineering features from technical analysis, order flow, and order-book data; training a Tabnet neural network.
result Achieved an accuracy of 0.601 in predicting directional change on the Silver Futures Contract.
This study analyzes the correlation structure of global agricultural futures markets using RMT.
problem Understanding the complex correlation structure of global agricultural futures markets.
method Random Matrix Theory (RMT) applied to analyze correlation coefficients and eigenvalues.
result The correlation structure is asymmetric and right skewed, with significant eigenvalues indicating market effects and commodity groups.
Paper builds a supervised learning model for Chinese futures price prediction.
problem Predicting the trend of Chinese futures prices accurately.
method Supervised learning model designed for futures price movement classification.
result The model meets accuracy requirements for classifying futures price movements.
Study optimizes funding rates for cryptocurrency perpetual futures to maintain price alignment.
problem Maintaining alignment between perpetual future prices and target values in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed replicating portfolios and path-dependent funding rates using path-dependent infinite-horizon BSDEs and arbitrage pricing theory.
result Appropriate funding rate design can keep perpetual future prices aligned with target values.
Surveying nonparametric inference with shape constraints, past and future.
problem Statistical inference under shape constraints.
method Historical overview and future directions.
result Outlook on future research directions.
New method for off-policy evaluation in POMDPs using future-dependent value functions.
problem Curse of horizon in off-policy evaluation for POMDPs.
method Develops future-dependent value functions and minimax learning method.
result PAC result and Bellman completeness for the proposed OPE estimator.
Hierarchical graph learning for calendar spread strategies in commodity futures markets
problem Developing machine-learning methods for calendar spread strategies in commodity futures markets
method Proposing a hierarchical graph learning approach
result Outperforming benchmark models in both prediction and trading performance
We apply the formalism of the continuous time random walk (CTRW) theory to financial tick data of the bond futures transacted in Korean Futures Exchange (KOFEX) market. For our case, the tick dynamical behaviors of the returns and volatility for bond futures are treated particularly at the long-time limit. The volatili…
Study shows post-COVID commodity futures returns and volatility changed for different products.
problem Analyzing how the pandemic affected Chinese commodity futures markets.
method Empirical analysis of commodity futures returns and cointegration before and after the pandemic.
result Post-COVID, some commodity futures returns increased significantly, while others saw higher volatility.
This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation to value quality options in agricultural futures contracts.
problem Valuation of quality options in agricultural futures to prevent manipulation and improve hedging performance.
method Monte Carlo simulation with antithetic variables for efficiency.
result Demonstrates a method to estimate the value of quality options in agricultural futures contracts.
We study a stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios. Building on the Schwartz 97 stochastic convenience yield model for commodity prices, we formulate a utility maximization problem for dynamically trading a single-maturity futures or multiple futures contracts over a finite horizon. By analyzing the a…
Perpetual futures offer leverage without maturity, with prices influenced by funding rates.
problem Understanding and pricing perpetual futures with funding rates.
method Derive no-arbitrage prices and bounds in markets with trading costs. Empirically analyze deviations and Sharpe ratios of implied arbitrage strategies.
result Implied arbitrage strategies in crypto markets yield high Sharpe ratios, indicating significant pricing inefficiencies.
The study examines how global economic policy uncertainty affects crude oil futures volatility.
problem Predicting crude oil futures volatility using global economic policy uncertainty.
method Established single-factor and two-factor models under the GARCH-MIDAS framework, tested with rolling-window and fixed-span specifications.
result GEPU changes have stronger predictive power than the GEPU index for crude oil futures volatility.
The paper analyzes gold, oil, and bitcoin futures volatility and basis.
problem Understanding the volatility and basis of gold, oil, and bitcoin futures.
method Contract-by-contract analysis of spot and futures prices, trading volume, and open interest data.
result Trading volume positively affects volatility in all three assets, while open interest has a possible negative effect.
Study measures risk spillovers between US and China's agricultural futures markets.
problem Interconnectedness and risk transmission in agricultural futures markets.
method TVP-VAR-DY model with quantile method.
result CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat are primary risk transmitters; DCE corn and soybean are main receivers.
A new GNN model predicts stock trends by learning historical and future correlations.
problem Limited improvement in stock trend prediction models due to ignoring future patterns.
method DishFT-GNN framework that trains a teacher and student model to capture historical and future data correlations.
result State-of-the-art performance on real-world datasets.
We utilize the symmetric thermal optimal path (TOPS) method to examine the dynamic interaction patterns between the VIX and VIX futures markets. We document that the VIX dominates the VIX futures more in the first few years, especially before the introduction of VIX options. We further observe that the TOPS paths show …
Fair market valuations ignore future worker profits in employee-owned firms.
problem Ignoring future worker profits in fair market valuations for employee-owned firms.
method Analyzing property rights and residual claimants in employee-owned firms.
result Fair market valuations are inappropriate for employee-owned firms.
Study examines liquidation, leverage, and optimal margin requirements in Bitcoin futures markets.
problem Understanding and optimizing margin requirements in Bitcoin futures markets.
method Empirical analysis using generalized extreme value theory and BitMEX data.
result Margin requirements need to be significantly higher to reduce daily margin calls.
Multivariate time series forecasting is an important yet challenging problem in machine learning. Most existing approaches only forecast the series value of one future moment, ignoring the interactions between predictions of future moments with different temporal distance. Such a deficiency probably prevents the model …
Study optimal futures trading strategies for assets with multiscale central tendency price model.
problem Optimal dynamic trading of futures with multiscale central tendency price model.
method Derive no-arbitrage futures prices, solve HJB equations for optimal strategies.
result Optimal trading strategies depend on asset parameters and futures risk premia.