A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper presents a Siamese network for identifying more convincing evidence.
New surfaces described that are symmetric and solve a specific equation.
There is convincing evidence showing that the probability distributions of stock returns in mature markets exhibit power-law tails and both the positive and negative tails conform to the inverse cubic law. It supports the possibility that the tail exponents are universal at least for mature markets in the sense that th…
Paper develops a method to detect training data used in machine learning models.
This study presents a multimodal machine learning model to predict ICD-10 diagnostic codes. We developed separate machine learning models that can handle data from different modalities, including unstructured text, semi-structured text and structured tabular data. We further employed an ensemble method to integrate all…
The traditional Sznajd model, as well as its Ochrombel simplification for opinion spreading, are applied to marketing with the help of advertising. The larger the lattice is the smaller is the amount of advertising needed to convince the whole market
Discretizes special surfaces using Koenigs nets.
New PU ratio predicts long-term Bitcoin returns better than other methods.
The paper proves concentration inequalities for two-sample rank processes and applies them to ranking performance criteria.
Advocacy learning uses competitive networks to improve classification accuracy.
Taylor's law of temporal fluctuation scaling, variance mean, is ubiquitous in natural and social sciences. We report for the first time convincing evidence of a solid temporal fluctuation scaling law in stock illiquidity by investigating the mean-variance relationship of the high-frequency illiquidity o…
Authors provide a fair comparison of GNNs for graph classification.
STOVE predicts convincing physical behavior in videos.
In this paper, we implement and test two types of market-based models for European-type options, based on the tangent Levy models proposed recently by R. Carmona and S. Nadtochiy. As a result, we obtain a method for generating Monte Carlo samples of future paths of implied volatility surfaces. These paths and the surfa…
Study finds intrinsic multifractality in maize and barley spot markets, but not in wheat and rice.
This paper develops a theory for group Lasso using a concept called strong group sparsity. Our result shows that group Lasso is superior to standard Lasso for strongly group-sparse signals. This provides a convincing theoretical justification for using group sparse regularization when the underlying group structure is …
An elementary arbitrage principle and the existence of trends in financial time series, which is based on a theorem published in 1995 by P. Cartier and Y. Perrin, lead to a new understanding of option pricing and dynamic hedging. Intricate problems related to violent behaviors of the underlying, like the existence of j…
We consider a few quantities that characterize trading on a stock market in a fixed time interval: logarithmic returns, volatility, trading activity (i.e., the number of transactions), and volume traded. We search for the power-law cross-correlations among these quantities aggregated over different time units from 1 mi…
Introduces gradient decay in Softmax for better generalization.
New methods validate a hypothesis explaining how neural nets generalize well.
The Cartier-Perrin theorem, which was published in 1995 and is expressed in the language of nonstandard analysis, permits, for the first time perhaps, a clear-cut mathematical definition of the volatility of a financial asset. It yields as a byproduct a new understanding of the means of returns, of the beta coefficient…
We prove the eventological -theorem that complements the Boltzmann H-theorem from statistical mechanics and serves as a mathematical excuse (mathematically no less convincing than the Boltzmann H-theorem for the second law of thermodynamics) for what can be called "the second law of eventology", which justifies the …
This paper poses some basic questions about instances (hard to find) of a special problem in 3-manifold topology. "Important though the general concepts and propositions may be with the modern industrious passion for axiomatizing and generalizing has presented us...nevertheless I am convinced that the special problems …
This study presents the results of a series of simulation experiments that evaluate and compare four different manifold alignment methods under the influence of noise. The data was created by simulating the dynamics of two slightly different double pendulums in three-dimensional space. The method of semi-supervised fea…
New argument suggests torsion cannot be part of gravity models.
New fast estimation methods stemming from control theory lead to a fresh look at time series, which bears some resemblance to "technical analysis". The results are applied to a typical object of financial engineering, namely the forecast of foreign exchange rates, via a "model-free" setting, i.e., via repeated identifi…
Delta hedging, which plays a crucial rôle in modern financial engineering, is a tracking control design for a "risk-free" management. We utilize the existence of trends in financial time series (Fliess M., Join C.: A mathematical proof of the existence of trends in financial time series, Proc. Int. Conf. Systems Theory…
We present a TTS neural network that is able to produce speech in multiple languages. The proposed network is able to transfer a voice, which was presented as a sample in a source language, into one of several target languages. Training is done without using matching or parallel data, i.e., without samples of the same …
Archetypal analysis represents a set of observations as convex combinations of pure patterns, or archetypes. The original geometric formulation of finding archetypes by approximating the convex hull of the observations assumes them to be real valued. This, unfortunately, is not compatible with many practical situations…
This paper derives -- considering a Gaussian setting -- closed form solutions of the statistics that Adrian and Brunnermeier and Acharya et al. have suggested as measures of systemic risk to be attached to individual banks. The statistics equal the product of statistic specific Beta-coefficients with the mean corrected…
We present a method for translating music across musical instruments, genres, and styles. This method is based on a multi-domain wavenet autoencoder, with a shared encoder and a disentangled latent space that is trained end-to-end on waveforms. Employing a diverse training dataset and large net capacity, the domain-ind…
In this work, we ask the following question: Can visual analogies, learned in an unsupervised way, be used in order to transfer knowledge between pairs of games and even play one game using an agent trained for another game? We attempt to answer this research question by creating visual analogies between a pair of game…
We are settling a longstanding quarrel in quantitative finance by proving the existence of trends in financial time series thanks to a theorem due to P. Cartier and Y. Perrin, which is expressed in the language of nonstandard analysis (Integration over finite sets, F. & M. Diener (Eds): Nonstandard Analysis in Practice…
The independence of Central Banks is shown to be a myth.
Generative neural networks applied to 2D path planning.
Our goal is to convince the readers that the theory of complex normal surface singularities can be a powerful tool in the study of numerical semigroups, and, in the same time, a very rich source of interesting affine and numerical semigroups. More precisely, we prove that the strongly flat semigroups, which satisfy the…
The paper explores how to handle uncertain evidence in probabilistic models.
Empirical study shows Randomized Signature Methods improve portfolio optimization in financial markets.
Learning goal-oriented dialogues by means of deep reinforcement learning has recently become a popular research topic. However, commonly used policy-based dialogue agents often end up focusing on simple utterances and suboptimal policies. To mitigate this problem, we propose a class of novel temperature-based extension…
GEAR uses graphs to integrate and reason over multiple evidence for fact verification.
Single-level density-based approach has long been widely acknowledged to be a conceptually and mathematically convincing clustering method. In this paper, we propose an algorithm called "best-scored clustering forest" that can obtain the optimal level and determine corresponding clusters. The terminology "best-scored" …
PAC learning simplified as bipartite matching.
Improved language models by incorporating statistical discriminators.
Paper compares AI models for credit scoring and explains them.
Evidence acquisition costs influence disclosure behavior and preference.
Discovering and exploring the underlying structure of multi-instrumental music using learning-based approaches remains an open problem. We extend the recent MusicVAE model to represent multitrack polyphonic measures as vectors in a latent space. Our approach enables several useful operations such as generating plausibl…
Generative Adversarial Networks have become one of the most studied frameworks for unsupervised learning due to their intuitive formulation. They have also been shown to be capable of generating convincing examples in limited domains, such as low-resolution images. However, they still prove difficult to train in practi…
In this paper we introduce evidence transfer for clustering, a deep learning method that can incrementally manipulate the latent representations of an autoencoder, according to external categorical evidence, in order to improve a clustering outcome. By evidence transfer we define the process by which the categorical ou…