A novel framework synthesizes treatment data across sites using optimal transport.
problem Estimating treatment effects across different sites with varying conditions.
method Distributional causal inference, Optimal Transport for alignment of control group distributions.
result Synthetic treatment group data aligns with true target distribution under general conditions.
New method constructs synthetic treatment groups without mean exchangeability assumption.
problem Violations of mean exchangeability assumption in randomized controlled trials.
method Weighted mixture of treatment groups from source populations, minimizing conditional maximum mean discrepancy.
result Asymptotic normality of synthetic treatment group estimator established.
Estimates treatment effects in time series data with always-missing controls.
problem Lack of control group in time series data, especially during specific events.
method Recover control group in event period, account for confounders and temporal dependencies.
result Robust estimation of control group's potential outcome and accurate predicted holiday effect.
The paper proposes a new algorithm to estimate personalized treatment effects.
problem Estimating personalized heterogeneous treatment effects.
method Concatenation and augmentation of feature vectors, outcome regression function construction.
result The proposed algorithm outperforms T-learner and X-learner in various simulation experiments.
In the absence of unobserved confounders, matching and weighting methods are widely used to estimate causal quantities including the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT). Unfortunately, these methods do not necessarily achieve their goal of making the multivariate distribution of covariates for the control gro…
The paper proposes a neural network method to estimate treatment effects by balancing treated and control distributions.
problem Estimating individual and average treatment effects from observational data.
method Balance regularization of multi-head neural network architectures to reduce confounding effects.
result The approach reduces bias-variance trade-off and improves treatment effect estimation.
New method uses latent variables to estimate treatment effects from single-arm trials.
problem Estimating treatment effects from single-arm trials due to lack of external control groups.
method Latent-variable modeling with amortized variational inference for patient matching and direct effect estimation.
result Improved performance in direct treatment effect estimation and effect estimation via patient matching compared to previous methods.
We present a new machine learning approach to estimate personalized treatment effects in the classical potential outcomes framework with binary outcomes. To overcome the problem that both treatment and control outcomes for the same unit are required for supervised learning, we propose surrogate loss functions that inco…
Estimates heterogeneous treatment effects by grouping conditional average treatment effects.
problem Non-randomized experiments suffer from selection bias.
method Doubly-robust estimator, machine learning for propensity score and conditional mean functions, linear projection model, Neyman-orthogonal moments.
result Lower absolute errors and smaller bias compared to benchmark estimator.
A new method estimates treatment effects without strong assumptions.
problem Treatment effect estimation with strong model assumptions.
method Distribution learning-based weighting method.
result Our method outperforms existing methods in estimating ATT.
Proposes a generalized causal tree for handling multiple treatments in uplift modeling.
problem Handling multiple treatments in uplift modeling.
method Generalizes causal tree algorithm to handle multiple discrete and continuous-valued treatments.
result Demonstrates improved performance over existing methods in experiments and real data examples.
A new method TNW-CATE estimates treatment effects using neural networks.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with limited controls and many treatments.
method Trainable Nadaraya-Watson regression with shared parameters neural network.
result TNW-CATE outperforms traditional methods in various simulation experiments.
New method estimates treatment effects from treated and unlabeled units.
problem Estimating ATEs with missing data and weak supervision.
method Develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE in PU learning.
result Constructs estimators that achieve semiparametric efficiency bounds.
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for comparing the effectiveness of a new treatment to the current one (the control). Most RCTs allocate the patients to the treatment group and the control group by uniform randomization. We show that this procedure can be highly sub-optimal (in terms of learnin…
Method controls treatment risk in learning beneficial allocations.
problem Learning beneficial treatment allocations with risk control in precision medicine.
method Proposes a certifiable learning method that controls treatment risk with finite samples in the partially identified setting.
result Illustrates method using both simulated and real data.
New method estimates individual treatment effects using domain generalization.
problem Estimating causal individual treatment effects from observational data with treatment bias.
method Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) framework to learn predictors invariant to domain-dependent factors.
result IRM-based ITE estimator shows gains over classical regression approaches in settings with pronounced support mismatch.
This paper provides a full controlled version of algebraic K-theory. This includes a rich array of assembly maps; the controlled assembly isomorphism theorem identifying the controlled group with homology; and the stability theorem describing the behavior of the inverse limit as the control parameter goes to 0. There…
Kernel methods identify treatment effects with unobserved confounding using negative controls.
problem Learning causal relationships with unmeasured confounding.
method Kernel ridge regression algorithms for nonparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates of convergence proved.
A review of contrastive dimension reduction methods for treatment vs control studies.
problem Traditional dimension reduction techniques fail to isolate treatment-specific signals.
method Systematic overview and taxonomy of CDR methods.
result Unified framework for CDR methods and applications.
This chapter introduces flexible methods for policy evaluation.
problem Assessing the causal effect of treatments or interventions.
method Review of various evaluation methods including randomized, observational, and machine learning approaches.
result Flexible methods for handling many observations and covariates.
Causal effect estimation relies on separating the variation in the outcome into parts due to the treatment and due to the confounders. To achieve this separation, practitioners often use external sources of randomness that only influence the treatment called instrumental variables (IVs). We study variables constructed …
EHR-MPC optimizes sepsis treatment using digital twins and inference-time control.
problem Optimal sepsis treatment policies are contested and difficult to adapt during inference.
method EHR-MPC decouples learning patient dynamics from treatment optimization, enabling inference-time control over learned digital twins.
result EHR-MPC achieves comparable off-policy performance and improved simulation performance compared to RL baselines.
Study predicts internet-based treatment effects for GPPPD based on dyadic coping.
problem Identifying which patients will benefit most from internet-based GPPPD treatment.
method Developed a multivariable decision tree model using recursive partitioning.
result Predicts large effects for high dyadic coping patients, small effects for low dyadic coping patients.
Enhances credit card limit adjustments by considering treatment uncertainty and prediction criteria.
problem Optimal treatment selection under multitreatment scenarios.
method Proposes a comprehensive methodology incorporating conditional value-at-risk and prediction criterion for continuous outcomes.
result Significantly improved policy performance in credit card limit adjustments.
Optimizes experimental design using synthetic controls for better outcomes.
problem Estimating average treatment effects in studies with pre-treatment data.
method Mixed-integer programming for selecting treated and control units and weights.
result Improves mean squared error and statistical power compared to simple alternatives.
Estimates treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-compliance.
problem Estimating distributional treatment effects in experiments with imperfect compliance.
method Proposes a regression-adjusted estimator based on distribution regression with Neyman-orthogonal moment conditions.
result Achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and demonstrates favorable performance in simulations and real data.
Optimizes balanced treatment assignment for experiments.
problem Balancing treatment groups in experiments for optimal results.
method Optimization of a two-sample test, using minimum spanning tree test.
result Optimal assignment algorithm with polynomial time complexity.
Personalized medicine aims at identifying best treatments for a patient with given characteristics. It has been shown in the literature that these methods can lead to great improvements in medicine compared to traditional methods prescribing the same treatment to all patients. Subgroup identification is a branch of per…
CausalMix generates synthetic data with causal controls for mixed-type tables.
problem Synthetic data for causal inference with mixed-type and multimodal tabular data.
method CausalMix combines Gaussian latent priors with data-type-specific decoders for control over overlap, confounding, and treatment effect heterogeneity.
result CausalMix achieves state-of-the-art distributional metrics and stable causal control.
Syntax designs adaptive trials for subpopulations with potential benefits.
problem Identifying subpopulations with positive treatment effects in diverse patient populations.
method Adaptive patient recruitment and synthetic control estimation.
result Syntax outperforms conventional trial designs in identifying beneficial subpopulations.
Learning causal effects from observational data greatly benefits a variety of domains such as health care, education and sociology. For instance, one could estimate the impact of a new drug on specific individuals to assist the clinic plan and improve the survival rate. In this paper, we focus on studying the problem o…
Machine-assisted treatment recommendations hold a promise to reduce physician time and decision errors. We formulate the task as a sequence-to-sequence prediction model that takes the entire time-ordered medical history as input, and predicts a sequence of future clinical procedures and medications. It is built on the …
High-dimensional models can outperform simpler ones in causal inference.
problem Estimating average treatment effects with many covariates.
method High-dimensional linear regression and synthetic control with many control units.
result Adding more control units can improve imputation performance even when pre-treatment fit is perfect.
New challenges in causal inference with big data.
problem Extending causal inference to incrementally available observational data.
method Formal definition of continual treatment effect estimation, solutions to challenges.
result New methods for handling challenges in causal inference with observational data.
BENK estimates treatment effects with neural kernels for censored data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with censored time-to-event data.
method Proposes a method using the Beran estimator with neural kernels for survival functions.
result Shows improved accuracy compared to existing methods in various scenarios.
Scientists develop a model to identify treatment responders from non-responders.
problem Analyzing samples that respond to treatment in studies.
method Causal two-groups (C2G) model, empirical Bayes procedures.
result The C2G model controls false discovery rate and has near-optimal power.
SVM used for estimating treatment effects without confounding.
problem Estimating average treatment effects in the presence of confounding variables.
method Adapts SVM classifier as a kernel-based weighting procedure to balance covariates and estimate causal effects.
result SVM provides a continuous relaxation of the quadratic integer program for balancing covariates and maximizing effective sample size.
The paper proposes a method to identify subgroups with different treatment effects in time-to-event data.
problem Identifying subgroups with differential treatment effects in time-to-event data.
method A mixture model with structured sparsity regularization and novel inference procedure.
result The method effectively recovers sparse phenotypes across real-world clinical studies.
Generative model predicts post-treatment outcomes in econometrics.
problem Estimating treatment impact on a single unit with a control sample.
method Generative learning approach, transforming data to Gaussian, using Fourier space Gaussian process analysis, combining Gaussian prior with data likelihood.
result Synthetic prediction minimizes error variance, unique minimum variance counterfactual.
In this paper, we provide efficient estimators and honest confidence bands for a variety of treatment effects including local average (LATE) and local quantile treatment effects (LQTE) in data-rich environments. We can handle very many control variables, endogenous receipt of treatment, heterogeneous treatment effects,…
Gen AI improves document understanding but not data analysis in public sector tasks.
problem Understanding the impact of Gen AI on public sector tasks.
method Pre-registered field experiment comparing Gen AI to control group performance.
result Mixed results: Gen AI improves document understanding but not data analysis.
The paper compares methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using multiple randomized trials.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects reliably and precisely with a single dataset is challenging.
method Non-parametric approaches for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using data from multiple trials.
result Methods that directly allow for heterogeneity of the treatment effect across trials perform better than those that do not.
New disease drug trials use ML to predict best therapy.
problem Developing new drugs faster than usual clinical trials.
method Use Neural Network to predict drug effects from patient data.
result Neural Network outperforms traditional placebo-controlled trials.
Proposes a fusion method for many treatment groups in ITRs.
problem Challenges in handling many treatment groups with data sparsity and covariate imbalance.
method Calibration-weighted treatment fusion procedure that balances covariates and fuses similar treatments.
result Ensures robust treatment group recovery and policy value compared to existing methods.
A new method improves treatment effect inferences in RCTs by adjusting for covariates and heteroskedasticity.
problem Improving treatment effect inferences in RCTs with efficient and powerful methods.
method Weighted Prognostic Covariate Adjustment Method (Weighted PROCOVA) for heteroskedasticity.
result The method reduces variance, maintains Type I error rate, and increases test power for treatment effect.
Study fairness in vaccine allocation in social networks.
problem Fairness implications of vaccine allocation strategies in social networks.
method Defined precision disease control problem, used ML Fairness Gym to simulate and analyze.
result Different treatment strategies distribute disease burden differently across subgroups.
Framework for estimating treatment effects using external control data.
problem Improving efficiency in estimating average treatment effects (ATE) in hybrid trials.
method Developed a formal causal inference framework based on exchangeability assumptions and graphical criteria. Proposed estimators and efficient doubly-robust methods.
result Established finite-sample performance and demonstrated application to spinal muscular atrophy trial.
In a seminal paper Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller [2010] (ADH), see also Abadie and Gardeazabal [2003], Abadie et al. [2014], develop the synthetic control procedure for estimating the effect of a treatment, in the presence of a single treated unit and a number of control units, with pre-treatment outcomes observed f…