The paper analyzes reinsurance strategies in peer-to-peer insurance schemes.
problem Strategic interaction between plan managers and reinsurers in P2P insurance.
method Develops two game-theoretic contract designs: Pareto and Bowley designs, deriving optimal contracts and analyzing their welfare effects.
result The Bowley design yields a unique optimal contract, while the Pareto design allows for multiple Pareto-optimal contracts.
Optimal contracts are found for agents with quadratic effort costs.
problem Finding optimal contracts in principal-agent problems with quadratic effort costs.
method Modeling the problem using Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations and proving the existence of classical solutions.
result Existence of optimal contracts for agents with quadratic effort costs is proven.
Fair insurance contracts are designed to handle default risk using cooperative game theory.
problem Designing fair insurance contracts in the presence of default risk.
method Cooperative game theory to specify premiums and participation in benefit.
result Fair benefit participation emerges as a game outcome involving residual risks.
Study develops a smart contract framework for efficient and fair resource allocation.
problem Lack of rigorous economic foundation in decentralized coordination and smart contract implementations.
method Mechanism design framework with provable convergence guarantees for decentralized price adjustment.
result Proves stability and robustness of the proposed mechanism under various perturbations.
We consider a general framework of optimal mechanism design under adverse selection and ambiguity about the type distribution of agents. We prove the existence of optimal mechanisms under minimal assumptions on the contract space and prove that centralized contracting implemented via mechanisms is equivalent to delegat…
Paper uses relaxation techniques to find optimal brokerage fees with private signals.
problem Finding optimal brokerage fees for clients with private trading signals.
method Relaxation techniques to establish contract existence in asymmetric information settings.
result Existence of optimal brokerage fees established in a market model with private signals.
The study examines how alternative resource adequacy contract designs affect market participants' risk profiles and resource mix.
problem The tension between promoting reliability and competition in liberalized electricity markets.
method Constructs a stochastic equilibrium model of a competitive market with incomplete risk trading and computes investment equilibria under different contracting regimes.
result Alternative contracting regimes can induce different risk profiles and resource mixes, affecting market outcomes.
Holographic Invariant Storage uses vector architectures to ensure LLM safety at design time.
problem Mitigating context drift in large language models (LLMs) during deployment.
method Introduces Holographic Invariant Storage (HIS) protocol that combines known properties of bipolar Vector Symbolic Architectures into a design-time safety contract.
result Closed-form guarantees for single-signal recovery fidelity, continuous-noise robustness, and multi-signal capacity degradation are provided and validated.
We employ a 2x3 factorial experiment to study two central factors in the design of prediction markets (PMs) for idea evaluation: the overall design of the PM, and the elasticity of market prices set by a market maker. The results show that 'multi-market designs' on which each contract is traded on a separate PM lead to…
Optimal reinsurance contracts designed for a continuum of risk types.
problem Designing optimal reinsurance contracts with a continuum of risk types.
method Principal-agent model, VaR at risk tolerance level, change of variables, univariate approach.
result Optimal reinsurance contracts are in stop-loss form, classifying agents into high and low risk groups.
New method designs fairer transport plans with uncertainty.
problem Designing fair and balanced mass transport plans.
method Hierarchical fully probabilistic design (HFPD) for transport plans.
result Optimal hyperprior for transport plans with uncertain marginals.
The paper explores local-correlation models for pricing complex financial contracts.
problem Calibrating synthetic quanto forward contracts and composite options.
method Design on-line calibration procedures for local and stochastic volatility models.
result Calibration performance of local-correlation models compared to simpler approximations.
We consider the problem of designing a derivatives exchange aiming at addressing clients needs in terms of listed options and providing suitable liquidity. We proceed into two steps. First we use a quantization method to select the options that should be displayed by the exchange. Then, using a principal-agent approach…
Optimal contracts help principals delegate data collection in decentralized ML.
problem Dealing with information asymmetries in decentralized ML.
method Design of optimal and near-optimal contracts addressing uncertainty in model quality and performance.
result Simple linear contracts achieve 1-1/e fraction of optimal utility.
This paper develops a method to select a reference contract for multi-contract quoting to minimize execution risk.
problem Minimizing execution risk in multi-contract quoting sequences.
method Develops a diagnostic framework using order-flow Hawkes forecasts and CLF to select a stable reference contract.
result Event-history and LOB-state signals offer complementary views for reference-contract selection.
Prediction markets can be manipulated by traders who can move contract settlements, harming price discovery.
problem Manipulation of settlement times in prediction markets leads to unfair wealth transfer and harms price discovery.
method Developed a model showing how settlement manipulation transfers wealth and harms price discovery, and observed real-world effects on Polymarket's Bitcoin contract.
result Manipulators capture significant profits from retail traders, especially when settlement times are short.
SFC aims to protect the Amazon with a digital currency and smart contracts.
problem Protecting the Amazon's ecosystem and ensuring resource credibility.
method Blockchain, digital contracts, smart contracts with oracles.
result Ensures credibility and security for financial resources invested in Amazon projects.
TradeMech nets trades without changing counterparty relationships.
problem Netting trades without altering counterparty exposure in complex financial networks.
method Transforms contracts into chains and cycles, nets designated object multilaterally, and replaces contracts with new multiparty agreements.
result Maximal multilateral netting of a designated object while preserving each agent's profit and counterparty risk.
Study on reinsurance decisions using mean-variance criterion with irreversible contracts.
problem Optimizing reinsurance premiums and contracts in a Stackelberg game with irreversible contracts.
method Unified singular control framework applied to both discrete and continuous time reinsurance contracts.
result A single once-for-all reinsurance contract is preferred over multiple contracts, and the signing time is crucial.
Optimal insurance contracts are designed to screen risk preferences and risk types under asymmetric information.
problem Designing optimal insurance contracts under asymmetric information and risk types.
method Constructing a menu of contracts that maximizes mean-variance utilities, subject to truth-telling constraints.
result Equilibrium contracts exhibit nonlinear pricing with decreasing risk loadings, inducing self-selection.
The paper categorizes and analyzes various event-linked perpetual futures contracts.
problem Developing a risk-design framework for complex event-linked perpetual futures.
method Formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants, organized along four design axes.
result Detailed analysis of microstructure properties and limitations of various variants.
Based on a new coupling approach, we prove that the transition step of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm is contractive w.r.t. a carefully designed Kantorovich (L1 Wasserstein) distance. The lower bound for the contraction rate is explicit. Global convexity of the potential is not required, and thus multimodal targ…
AMM finds optimal contract for LPs to maximize order flow.
problem Maximizing order flow in AMMs with LPs.
method Leader-follower stochastic game, closed-form equilibrium solutions.
result LPs incentivized to add liquidity when external price attracts more noise trading.
New formulations capture aversion to ambiguity about volatility.
problem Capturing aversion to ambiguity about unknown and time-varying volatility.
method Introduces novel preference formulations and compares them with existing models.
result Illustrates the impact of ambiguity aversion in static and dynamic models.
Bayesian posterior contraction rates improve with decreasing tails
problem Bayesian posterior contraction in nonparametric settings
method Using p-exponential tails for contraction rates result Improvement in contraction rates with decreasing tails
Improved AMM protocol supports diverse loan maturities in DeFi.
problem Challenges in designing AMMs for fixed-income lending with time-related complexities.
method Generalized BondMM protocol to support arbitrary maturities.
result BondMM-A protocol demonstrates superior performance in interest rate stability and financial robustness.
New method enhances graph neural networks using contractions and hourglass persistence.
problem Limitations of traditional persistent homology in graph neural networks.
method Hourglass Persistence, Contraction Homology, contractions as a topological operation.
result Hourglass Persistence boosts expressivity, learnability, and stability in graph representation learning.
This paper optimizes reinsurance contracts with belief differences between insurer and reinsurer.
problem Dynamic reinsurance design with heterogeneous beliefs under mean-variance framework.
method Modeling surplus process, applying partitioned domain optimization, solving HJB system.
result Optimal reinsurance contracts with belief heterogeneity are more complex than standard contracts.
New algorithms improve Bayesian linear regression with spike-and-slab priors.
problem Efficiently sampling from Bayesian linear regression models with sparsity-inducing priors.
method Design of two sampling algorithms: Gibbs sampling and Stochastic Localization.
result Stochastic Localization sampler shows significant advantage for poorly designed data matrices.
Control Contraction Metrics (CCMs) provide a nonlinear controller design involving an offline search for a Riemannian metric and an online search for a shortest path between the current and desired trajectories. In this paper, we generalize CCMs to Finsler geometry, allowing the use of non-Riemannian metrics. We provid…
Investigates optimal withdrawal strategies in VA contracts with tax and ratchet mechanisms.
problem Optimizing withdrawal strategies and behavior of policyholders in VA contracts with tax and ratchet mechanisms.
method Solving a backward dynamic programming problem to optimize cash flows from VA contracts, considering hybrid products and taxation effects.
result Tax-shielding effect of the cash fund enhances contract attractiveness, ratchet mechanism discourages early surrender, and cash fund discourages active withdrawals.
Study optimal reinsurance pricing under model uncertainty for multiple insurers.
problem Optimal reinsurance pricing in the presence of multiple sources of model uncertainty.
method Solves a continuous-time Stackelberg game for general reinsurance contracts, considering entropy penalties and ambiguity in insurers' models.
result Reinsurer prices under a distortion of the barycentre of insurers' models, maximizing expected wealth with an entropy penalty.
The paper defines fair profit sharing ratios in Islamic PL contracts.
problem Determining fair profit sharing ratios in Islamic PL contracts.
method Introduces c-fair profit sharing ratios and uses econometrics models to compute or approximate them. result Elucidates the relation between profit sharing ratios and economic factors.
SBT model uses randomized sharding and sub-models to improve Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
problem Improving efficiency and accuracy of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
method Randomized sharding, sub-models, intersection tree structure, optimal design.
result Theoretical optimal weights and worst-case complexity of SBT model.
Optimal insurance contract limits insurer's risk exposure variance.
problem Designing an optimal insurance contract limiting insurer's risk exposure variance.
method Derive optimal policy semi-analytically, focusing on actuarially fair case.
result Expected coverage is larger for wealthier insured, indicating normal good.
Bernard et al. (2015) study an optimal insurance design problem where an individual's preference is of the rank-dependent utility (RDU) type, and show that in general an optimal contract covers both large and small losses. However, their contracts suffer from a problem of moral hazard for paying more compensation for a…
Study uses machine learning to estimate effective policies in settings with hidden individual actions.
problem Estimating effective policies in settings with hidden individual actions.
method Instrumental Regression and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator.
result Demonstrates how to estimate a good contract in principal-agent problems.
We study the solution's existence for a generalized Dynkin game of switching type which is shown to be the natural representation for general defaultable OTC contract with contingent CSA. This is a theoretical counterparty risk mitigation mechanism that allows the counterparty of a general OTC contract to switch from z…
Bayesian nonparametric LABS model adapts to function smoothness in Besov spaces.
problem Estimating functions with unknown smoothness in Besov spaces.
method Lévy Adaptive B-spline (LABS) regression model with automatic smoothness adaptation.
result LABS posterior contracts around true function in Besov classes at nearly minimax-optimal rates.
With the inflation of the data, clustering analysis, as a branch of unsupervised learning, lacks unified understanding and application of its mathematical law. Based on the view of fixed point, this paper restates the model-based clustering and proposes a unified clustering framework. In order to find fixed points as c…
The present work studies and analyzes general defaultable OTC contract in presence of a contingent CSA, which is a theoretical counterparty risk mitigation mechanism of switching type that allows the counterparty of a general OTC contract to switch from zero to full/perfect collateralization and switch back whenever sh…
Bayesian framework for sphere regression using Gaussian fields.
problem Nonparametric regression on the sphere with Gaussian priors.
method Isotropic Gaussian field priors, harmonic structure, exact posterior distributions, optimal spectral truncation, posterior contraction rates.
result Sharp posterior contraction rates for Gaussian priors with polynomially decaying angular power spectra.
The paper analyzes distributed Bayesian inference and its Frequentist guarantees.
problem Analyzing large decentralized datasets with distributed Bayesian inference.
method Establishes Frequentist properties for distributed (non-)Bayesian inference.
result Distributed Bayesian inference retains parametric efficiency and enhances robustness.
We consider the issue of a market maker acting at the same time in the lit and dark pools of an exchange. The exchange wishes to establish a suitable make-take fees policy to attract transactions on its venues. We first solve the stochastic control problem of the market maker without the intervention of the exchange. T…
Bayesian methods estimate regression functions on submanifolds using graph Laplacian eigenbasis.
problem Estimating regression functions on unknown smooth submanifolds.
method Random geometric graph structure, Bayesian priors based on random basis expansion in graph Laplacian eigenbasis.
result Posterior contraction rates are minimax optimal for any positive smoothness index.
We adopt Deep Reinforcement Learning algorithms to design trading strategies for continuous futures contracts. Both discrete and continuous action spaces are considered and volatility scaling is incorporated to create reward functions which scale trade positions based on market volatility. We test our algorithms on the…
Insurance contracts for autonomous AI agents must be actuarially sound and resistant to gaming.
problem Designing insurance contracts for autonomous AI agents that are actuarially sound and resistant to gaming.
method Characterizing a five-attack space and proving the actuarial runtime is gaming-resistant.
result An incentive-compatible layer for actuarial control of autonomous-agent side effects.
The paper proposes modern computational methods for optimizing reinsurance contracts.
problem Optimizing catastrophe excess-of-loss reinsurance contracts with realistic constraints and risk measures.
method Two approaches: simulated annealing for local search and quantum branch & bound for future potential.
result Quantum branch & bound approach shows potential for future optimization with quantum computers.