arXiv research

The problem of pricing Bermudan options using Monte Carlo and a nonparametric regression is considered. We derive optimal non-asymptotic bounds for a lower biased estimate based on the suboptimal stopping rule constructed using some estimates of continuation values. These estimates may be of different nature, they may …

New method recovers radar and communication signals from overlaid data.

Method bounds continuous-valued treatment effects when confounding variables are hidden.

Agent uses message passing to optimize robot navigation, balancing exploration and exploitation.

The paper uses regression trees/random forests to price Bermudan options more efficiently.

Paper uses GANs to estimate effects of continuous interventions.

The paper values variable annuities using complex stochastic models and deep learning.

This paper investigates methods for quantifying similarity between audio signals, specifically for the task of of cover song detection. We consider an information-theoretic approach, where we compute pairwise measures of predictability between time series. We compare discrete-valued approaches operating on quantised au…

Estimating causal models from observational data is a crucial task in data analysis. For continuous-valued data, Shimizu et al. have proposed a linear acyclic non-Gaussian model to understand the data generating process, and have shown that their model is identifiable when the number of data is sufficiently large. Howe…

This paper compares linear regression and neural networks for pricing swing options.

Inverse classification uses an induced classifier as a queryable oracle to guide test instances towards a preferred posterior class label. The result produced from the process is a set of instance-specific feature perturbations, or recommendations, that optimally improve the probability of the class label. In this work…

We consider the problem of decomposing a higher-order tensor with binary entries. Such data problems arise frequently in applications such as neuroimaging, recommendation system, topic modeling, and sensor network localization. We propose a multilinear Bernoulli model, develop a rank-constrained likelihood-based estima…

For many complex diseases, there is a wide variety of ways in which an individual can manifest the disease. The challenge of personalized medicine is to develop tools that can accurately predict the trajectory of an individual's disease, which can in turn enable clinicians to optimize treatments. We represent an indivi…

LDP-Fed protects privacy in federated learning with neural networks.

In this note we propose a new approach towards solving numerically optimal stopping problems via reinforced regression based Monte Carlo algorithms. The main idea of the method is to reinforce standard linear regression algorithms in each backward induction step by adding new basis functions based on previously estimat…

A new method for binary ICA using non-stationary sources.

Deep Autotuner corrects singing pitch using neural networks.

KANOP uses KANs to efficiently price American options.

This paper explores four different visualization techniques for long short-term memory (LSTM) networks applied to continuous-valued time series. On the datasets analysed, we find that the best visualization technique is to learn an input deletion mask that optimally reduces the true class score. With a specific focus o…

A learning algorithm optimizes beamforming for holographic transceivers in far-field communication.

We study the problem of allocating stocks to dark pools. We propose and analyze an optimal approach for allocations, if continuous-valued allocations are allowed. We also propose a modification for the case when only integer-valued allocations are possible. We extend the previous work on this problem to adversarial sce…

In this paper, we address the fundamental problem of line spectral estimation in a Bayesian framework. We target model order and parameter estimation via variational inference in a probabilistic model in which the frequencies are continuous-valued, i.e., not restricted to a grid; and the coefficients are governed by a …

CIRCE measures conditional independence for learning invariant features.

Develops scalable methods to assess sensitivity and uncertainty in continuous treatment effects.

Multilayer switch networks are proposed as artificial generators of high-dimensional discrete data (e.g., binary vectors, categorical data, natural language, network log files, and discrete-valued time series). Unlike deconvolution networks which generate continuous-valued data and which consist of upsampling filters a…

Randomized neural networks improve optimal stopping problems efficiently.

In this paper we propose two efficient techniques which allow one to compute the price of American basket options. In particular, we consider a basket of assets that follow a multi-dimensional Black-Scholes dynamics. The proposed techniques, called GPR Tree (GRP-Tree) and GPR Exact Integration (GPR-EI), are both based …

Binary encoding enables neural networks to extrapolate periodic functions.

In this article we propose a novel approach to reduce the computational complexity of various approximation methods for pricing discrete time American options. Given a sequence of continuation values estimates corresponding to different levels of spatial approximation and time discretization, we propose a multi-level l…

The paper tackles fast rates in structured prediction problems.

Reinforcement learning algorithms can solve dynamic decision-making and optimal control problems. With continuous-valued state and input variables, reinforcement learning algorithms must rely on function approximators to represent the value function and policy mappings. Commonly used numerical approximators, such as ne…

The pricing of Bermudan options amounts to solving a dynamic programming principle, in which the main difficulty, especially in high dimension, comes from the conditional expectation involved in the computation of the continuation value. These conditional expectations are classically computed by regression techniques o…

In this paper, we present a Longstaff-Schwartz-type algorithm for optimal stopping time problems based on the Brownian motion filtration. The algorithm is based on Leão, Ohashi and Russo and, in contrast to previous works, our methodology applies to optimal stopping problems for fully non-Markovian and non-semimartinga…

In this paper, we present an infinite hierarchical non-parametric Bayesian model to extract the hidden factors over observed data, where the number of hidden factors for each layer is unknown and can be potentially infinite. Moreover, the number of layers can also be infinite. We construct the model structure that allo…

The area of constrained clustering has been extensively explored by researchers and used by practitioners. Constrained clustering formulations exist for popular algorithms such as k-means, mixture models, and spectral clustering but have several limitations. A fundamental strength of deep learning is its flexibility, a…

Efficient method for pricing Bermudan moving average options using GPR-GHQ.

Probabilistic graphical models are traditionally known for their successes in generative modeling. In this work, we advocate layered graphical models (LGMs) for probabilistic discriminative learning. To this end, we design LGMs in close analogy to neural networks (NNs), that is, they have deep hierarchical structures a…

We investigate two new strategies for the numerical solution of optimal stopping problems within the Regression Monte Carlo (RMC) framework of Longstaff and Schwartz. First, we propose the use of stochastic kriging (Gaussian process) meta-models for fitting the continuation value. Kriging offers a flexible, nonparametr…

This paper studies the problem of learning clusters which are consistently present in different (continuously valued) representations of observed data. Our setup differs slightly from the standard approach of (co-) clustering as we use the fact that some form of `labeling' becomes available in this setup: a cluster is …

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are an effective representation of control policies for a wide range of reinforcement and imitation learning problems. RNN policies, however, are particularly difficult to explain, understand, and analyze due to their use of continuous-valued memory vectors and observation features. In …

Optimal joint separation condition for radar and communications channels in dual-blind deconvolution.

Treatment effects can be estimated from observational data as the difference in potential outcomes. In this paper, we address the challenge of estimating the potential outcome when treatment-dose levels can vary continuously over time. Further, the outcome variable may not be measured at a regular frequency. Our propos…

In recent years, several methods have been proposed for the discovery of causal structure from non-experimental data (Spirtes et al. 2000; Pearl 2000). Such methods make various assumptions on the data generating process to facilitate its identification from purely observational data. Continuing this line of research, …

We study the problem of finding a universal (image-agnostic) perturbation to fool machine learning (ML) classifiers (e.g., neural nets, decision tress) in the hard-label black-box setting. Recent work in adversarial ML in the white-box setting (model parameters are known) has shown that many state-of-the-art image clas…

Flow-based data sets are necessary for evaluating network-based intrusion detection systems (NIDS). In this work, we propose a novel methodology for generating realistic flow-based network traffic. Our approach is based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) which achieve good results for image generation. A major c…

Quantum Graphical Models (QGMs) generalize classical graphical models by adopting the formalism for reasoning about uncertainty from quantum mechanics. Unlike classical graphical models, QGMs represent uncertainty with density matrices in complex Hilbert spaces. Hilbert space embeddings (HSEs) also generalize Bayesian …

Generative model evaluates text emotion intensity, outperforming classification.

We adapt a Markov Random Field learning algorithm for continuous variables.