arXiv research

Framework for continuous-time network data representation learning.

The intensity of a default time is obtained by assuming that the default indicator process has an absolutely continuous compensator. Here we drop the assumption of absolute continuity with respect to the Lebesgue measure and only assume that the compensator is absolutely continuous with respect to a general $σ$-finite …

New method models MTPP without predefined intensity functions.

Smoothing graphons improve link prediction in Bayesian SBM without increasing computational complexity.

We consider a framework for solving optimal liquidation problems in limit order books. In particular, order arrivals are modeled as a point process whose intensity depends on the liquidation price. We set up a stochastic control problem in which the goal is to maximize the expected revenue from liquidating the entire p…

IDPGs extend RDPGs with a Poisson process for random latent positions.

UNIPoint universally approximates point process intensities.

Generative model evaluates text emotion intensity, outperforming classification.

Study optimal growth strategies in a continuous-time asset market.

HYVINT generates hypergraphs with intensity-driven incidence formation and variational learning.

With the improvement of medical data capturing, vast amount of continuous patient monitoring data, e.g., electrocardiogram (ECG), real-time vital signs and medications, become available for clinical decision support at intensive care units (ICUs). However, it becomes increasingly challenging to model such data, due to …

Introduces a new Hawkes model with CARMA(p,q) intensity to better model dependence structures.

This paper explores neural models to improve modeling of Hawkes process intensity functions.

In this paper, a pricing formula for volatility swaps is delivered when the underlying asset follows the stochastic volatility model with jumps and stochastic intensity. By using Feynman-Kac theorem, a partial integral differential equation is obtained to derive the joint moment generating function of the previous mode…

A novel method for efficiently integrating spatiotemporal point processes.

Let $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ be a continuous-time, time-homogeneous strong Markov process with possible jumps and let $τ$ be its first hitting time of a Borel subset of the state space. Suppose $X$ is sampled at random times and suppose also that $X$ has not hit the Borel set by time $t$. What is the intensity process of $τ$ ba…

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of d…

New model predicts credit spreads using stochastic CIR++ intensities.

Modeling dependent defaults with multivariate Cox processes.

Continuous time Bayesian networks are investigated with a special focus on their ability to express causality. A framework is presented for doing inference in these networks. The central contributions are a representation of the intensity matrices for the networks and the introduction of a causality measure. A new mode…

In this paper, we study a continuous time structural asset value model for two correlated firms using a two-dimensional Brownian motion. We consider the situation of incomplete information, where the information set available to the market participants includes the default time of each firm and the periodic asset value…

Proposes a new method to estimate continuous treatment policies and match treatments effectively.

Proposes a new model for complex multivariate event data.

The episodic, irregular and asynchronous nature of medical data render them difficult substrates for standard machine learning algorithms. We would like to abstract away this difficulty for the class of time-stamped categorical variables (or events) by modeling them as a renewal process and inferring a probability dens…

This article provides the mathematical foundation for stochastically continuous affine processes on the cone of positive semidefinite symmetric matrices. This analysis has been motivated by a large and growing use of matrix-valued affine processes in finance, including multi-asset option pricing with stochastic volatil…

CTRNNs improve blood glucose forecasting in ICU, outperforming traditional models.

Many users in online social networks are constantly trying to gain attention from their followers by broadcasting posts to them. These broadcasters are likely to gain greater attention if their posts can remain visible for a longer period of time among their followers' most recent feeds. Then when to post? In this pape…

S2P2 model improves predictive likelihoods for MTPPs.

Study proposes a new model for joint survival annuity valuation.

It has long been observed that for practically any computational problem that has been intensely studied, different instances are best solved using different algorithms. This is particularly pronounced for computationally hard problems, where in most cases, no single algorithm defines the state of the art; instead, the…

Starting from the Avellaneda-Stoikov framework, we consider a market maker who wants to optimally set bid/ask quotes over a finite time horizon, to maximize her expected utility. The intensities of the orders she receives depend not only on the spreads she quotes, but also on unobservable factors modelled by a hidden M…

Paper proposes ensemble methods to prevent forgetting in neural networks.

We introduce a general framework for continuous-time betting markets, in which a bookmaker can dynamically control the prices of bets on outcomes of random events. In turn, the prices set by the bookmaker affect the rate or intensity of bets placed by gamblers. The bookmaker seeks a price process that maximizes his exp…

In a continuous-time model with multiple assets described by càdlàg processes, this paper characterizes superhedging prices, absence of arbitrage, and utility maximizing strategies, under general frictions that make execution prices arbitrarily unfavorable for high trading intensity. Such frictions induce a duality bet…

We consider the optimal stopping of a class of spectrally negative jump diffusions. We state a set of conditions under which the value is shown to have a representation in terms of an ordinary nonlinear programming problem. We establish a connection between the considered problem and a stopping problem of an associated…

We propose an efficient method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic spatial models.

In the present paper we fill an essential gap in the Convertible Bonds pricing world by deriving a Binary Tree based model for valuation subject to credit risk. This model belongs to the framework known as Equity to Credit Risk. We show that this model converges in continuous time to the model developed by Ayache, Fors…

New model prices options with complex market data structures.

New framework for policy gradient methods in continuous time reinforcement learning.

We develop a finite horizon continuous time market model, where risk averse investors maximize utility from terminal wealth by dynamically investing in a risk-free money market account, a stock written on a default-free dividend process, and a defaultable bond, whose prices are determined via equilibrium. We analyze fi…

This work originates from a heart's images tracking which is to generate an apparent continuous motion, observable through intensity variation from one starting image to an ending one both supposed segmented. Given two images p0 and p1, we calculate an evolution process p(t, \cdot) which transports p0 to p1 by using th…

Neural Diffusion Intensity Models simplify Cox processes inference.

Objects are represented in sensory systems by continuous manifolds due to sensitivity of neuronal responses to changes in physical features such as location, orientation, and intensity. What makes certain sensory representations better suited for invariant decoding of objects by downstream networks? We present a theory…

Continuous-time Kyle model shows privacy subsidy from noise-perturbed order flow.

Many time series are effectively generated by a combination of deterministic continuous flows along with discrete jumps sparked by stochastic events. However, we usually do not have the equation of motion describing the flows, or how they are affected by jumps. To this end, we introduce Neural Jump Stochastic Different…

We consider an investor faced with the utility maximization problem in which the risky asset price process has pure-jump dynamics affected by an unobservable continuous-time finite-state Markov chain, the intensity of which can also be controlled by actions of the investor. Using the classical filtering theory, we redu…

Bayesian approach for inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity estimation.

New model captures time and mark inter-dependence in TPPs.