A new data set helps estimate continental-scale population distributions.
problem Lack of comprehensive, publicly available data for population estimation.
method Comprehensive data set combining satellite imagery and open-source data.
result Provides a valuable resource for developing population estimation methods.
Study analyzes seasonal hydroclimatic features across climates and continents.
problem Lack of seasonal hydroclimatic feature analysis for Koppen-Geiger climates and continents.
method Global-scale analysis of 13,000 time series using 7 features.
result Notable differences in feature magnitudes across Koppen-Geiger climate classes and continental regions.
First European crop map created using satellite data.
problem Need for detailed parcel-level crop type mapping for EU.
method Used Sentinel-1 radar observations and LUCAS in-situ data.
result 80.3% overall accuracy for 19 crop types, highest for rape and turnip rape.
Recent observations with varied schedules and types (moving average, snapshot, or regularly spaced) can help to improve streamflow forecasts, but it is challenging to integrate them effectively. Based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) streamflow model, we tested multiple versions of a flexible procedure we call data i…
Climate change affects occurrences of floods and droughts worldwide. However, predicting climate impacts over individual watersheds is difficult, primarily because accurate hydrological forecasts require models that are calibrated to past data. In this work we present a large-scale LSTM-based modeling approach that -- …
The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has delivered valuable sensing of surface soil moisture since 2015. However, it has a short time span and irregular revisit schedule. Utilizing a state-of-the-art time-series deep learning neural network, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), we created a system that predicts SM…
An important problem in forensic analyses is identifying the provenance of materials at a crime scene, such as biological material on a piece of clothing. This procedure, known as geolocation, is conventionally guided by expert knowledge of the biological evidence and therefore tends to be application-specific, labor-i…
SVM predicts regional rainfall with varying accuracy, best in central US.
problem Regional rainfall prediction for social and economic impact planning.
method Support Vector Machine (SVM) applied to sequences of daily rainfall maps.
result SVM predictions for central region outperform untrained classifier.
MetNet forecasts precipitation up to 8 hours with high spatial and temporal resolution.
problem Precise weather forecasting for long lead times.
method Neural network architecture using axial self-attention for global context aggregation.
result MetNet outperforms Numerical Weather Prediction at forecasts of up to 8 hours.
TRAKNN detects rare atmospheric trajectories efficiently.
problem Detecting rare atmospheric anomalies over long periods.
method Unsupervised, recurrence-based kNN algorithm.
result Rare trajectories correspond to physical anomalies.
With the large-scale penetration of the internet, for the first time, humanity has become linked by a single, open, communications platform. Harnessing this fact, we report insights arising from a unified internet activity and location dataset of an unparalleled scope and accuracy drawn from over a trillion (1.5$\times…
Examines financial market patterns across 150 years and regions.
problem Evaluating stylized facts in financial markets.
method Testing 11 stylized facts across 150 years and multiple regions.
result Robustness and generalizability of stylized facts confirmed.
Global hydrological and land surface models are increasingly used for tracking terrestrial total water storage (TWS) dynamics, but the utility of existing models is hampered by conceptual and/or data uncertainties related to various underrepresented and unrepresented processes, such as groundwater storage. The gravity …
ML models predict water table depth more accurately than PB models, especially in data-scarce regions.
problem Uncertainty in large-scale simulations of water table depth due to biased observational data and model flexibility.
method Constructed three ML models using XGBoost and over 20 million real and proxy observations across the US and Canada.
result ML models correlate 0.6-0.75 with real and proxy observations, significantly better than PB models (0.21-0.40).
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these questions. Applying our methods to weekly Nordic and German electricity prices, and oi…
Recent developments in the literature on financial architecture suggest that banks and markets not only coexist, but also coevolve in ways that are non-neutral from the viewpoint of optimality. This article aims to analyse the concrete mechanisms of this coevolution by focusing on a very relevant case study: Belgium (t…
Extends GCN-SIR model for US COVID-19 spread analysis.
problem Modeling COVID-19 spread in the USA using SIR models and graph approaches.
method Coupling GCNs with SIR models to estimate mobility and hyperparameters.
result GCN-SIR approach outperforms existing methods for US data.
Trading affects grid frequency fluctuations, making them more extreme.
problem Impact of trading on grid frequency stability.
method Analysis of frequency time series from 2011 and 2017.
result Trading modifies frequency fluctuation statistics, making large deviations more likely.
Deep generative models improve global precipitation forecasts.
problem Accurately forecasting extreme rainfall is challenging and costly.
method Trained a Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (CorrectorGAN) to correct and super-resolve global precipitation forecasts.
result CorrectorGAN produces high-resolution, bias-corrected forecasts in seconds.
Conditional probabilistic graphical models provide a powerful framework for structured regression in spatio-temporal datasets with complex correlation patterns. However, in real-life applications a large fraction of observations is often missing, which can severely limit the representational power of these models. In t…
DeepKriging uses DNNs to predict spatial data with improved accuracy and scalability.
problem Predicting spatial processes with non-linear and non-Gaussian data.
method Adds an embedding layer of spatial coordinates with basis functions to DNNs.
result DeepKriging provides non-linear predictions with smaller approximation errors and is scalable for large datasets.
TDA detects stock market crashes across continents.
problem Detecting extreme events in multiple stock indices simultaneously.
method Topological Data Analysis (TDA) to analyze stock market crashes.
result TDA identifies stock market crashes and their duration.
Introduces bounded scale measure and generalizes property A.
problem Defining property A for large scale spaces with bounded geometry.
method Introduces bounded scale measure, shows its coarse invariance, and generalizes property A.
result Definition of property A for large scale spaces with bounded scale measure is a coarse invariant.
Transformers can scale both context and task, but MLPs can only scale task.
problem Understanding and scaling In-Context Learning in transformers.
method Simplified transformer architecture, feature map, and MLP combination.
result Simplified transformer can perform ICL and context-scaling but not task-scaling.
New scaling framework for MoE architectures ensures stability and optimal performance at scale.
problem Lack of principled understanding of how hyperparameters should scale in MoE architectures.
method Developed a novel Dynamical Mean Field Theory (DMFT) for three scaling regimes of MoE architectures.
result Derived Maximally Scale-Stable Parameterization (MSSP) for SGD and Adam, providing robust learning rate transfer and monotonic improvement with scale.
New principles needed for scaling large language models, challenging traditional regularization methods.
problem The shift from generalization to scaling in machine learning requires new guiding principles.
method Examining the effectiveness of traditional regularization methods in the scaling-centric era.
result Traditional principles of regularization may not generalize to larger scales, highlighting new phenomena like scaling law crossover.
Improves U-Net for scale equivariance in semantic segmentation.
problem Improving generalization in semantic segmentation tasks with varying scales.
method Introduces Scale Equivariant U-Net (SEU-Net) with carefully applied subsampling and upsampling layers and scale-equivariant layers.
result Significantly improved generalization to different scales compared to U-Net and scale-equivariant architecture without upsampling.
Introduces resemblance structure for large scale geometry.
problem Defining similarity in large scale geometry.
method Axiomatizing the concept of resemblance for subsets of a set.
result Large scale resemblance structures can induce nearness and generalize large scale properties.
New scaling laws optimize model size, training, and inference for better performance.
problem Trade-off between model size and inference cost in modern LLMs.
method Train-to-Test (T2) scaling laws that jointly optimize model size, training tokens, and inference samples. result Optimal pretraining decisions shift into overtraining regime, leading to stronger performance.
Derives a family of hyperparameter scaling strategies for neural networks.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for wide and deep neural networks.
method Introduces a one-parameter family of hyperparameter scaling strategies.
result Reveals proper scaling of depth with width for large-scale models.
To elucidate allometric scaling in complex systems, we investigated the underlying scaling relationships between typical three-scale indicators for approximately 500,000 Japanese firms; namely, annual sales, number of employees, and number of business partners. First, new scaling relations including the distributions o…
Study calculates tail risk for various mixture distributions.
problem Estimating tail risk for complex distribution mixtures.
method Analyzes tail conditional expectation for location-scale mixtures of elliptical distributions.
result Developed methods for calculating tail risk in various distributions.
A new robust scaling approach improves downstream metabolomics analysis.
problem Challenges in choosing scaling techniques for metabolomics data.
method Introduces a weighted scaling approach robust to outliers.
result The proposed method outperforms traditional scaling techniques in both outlier-free and outlier-present datasets.
Novel neural network solves PDEs with multi-scale resolution.
problem Solving time-dependent PDEs with varying spatial and temporal scales.
method Multi-scale message passing neural network with temporal and spatial gating modules.
result Outperforms baselines on PDEs with diverse scales.
New pruning method breaks power law scaling, potentially reducing error to exponential.
problem Improving neural network performance through scaling alone is costly.
method Developed a new data pruning metric to break power law scaling.
result Pruned datasets show better than power law scaling on various image datasets.
CrossAD detects anomalies in time series data by considering cross-scale associations and cross-window modeling.
problem Anomaly detection in time series data is challenging due to varying patterns at different scales and fixed window sizes.
method CrossAD incorporates cross-scale reconstruction and a query library to capture dynamic cross-scale associations and comprehensive context.
result CrossAD achieves state-of-the-art performance in anomaly detection across multiple real-world datasets.
Develops active learning for scale-bridging simulations.
problem Quantitative predictions in nanoporous media and inertial confinement fusion.
method Active learning approach to optimize fine-scale simulations for coarse-scale hydrodynamics.
result Optimizes use of fine-scale simulations for coarse-scale predictions.
Theory explains neural network scaling with dataset and model size.
problem Neural network scaling laws with dataset and model size.
method Identified variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behaviors.
result Four scaling regimes explained: infinite data, infinite width, resolution-limited, and large width.
We define the intrinsic scale at which a network begins to reveal its identity as the scale at which subgraphs in the network (created by a random walk) are distinguishable from similar sized subgraphs in a perturbed copy of the network. We conduct an extensive study of intrinsic scale for several networks, ranging fro…
Study shows how non-uniform scaling affects persistence diagrams.
problem Stability of persistence diagrams under non-uniform scaling.
method Explicit bounds on bottleneck distance derived for Euclidean scaling.
result Explicit bounds on the stability of persistence diagrams under non-uniform scaling.
The paper categorizes four types of scale-up: smart, dumb, forced, and fumbled.
problem Growing ventures in size and maintaining efficiency.
method Identifying modularity and speed as key factors, categorizing four types of scale-up.
result Modularity and speed are crucial for successful scale-up.
One of the difficulties of training deep neural networks is caused by improper scaling between layers. Scaling issues introduce exploding / gradient problems, and have typically been addressed by careful scale-preserving initialization. We investigate the value of preserving scale, or isometry, beyond the initial weigh…
We introduce deep scale-spaces (DSS), a generalization of convolutional neural networks, exploiting the scale symmetry structure of conventional image recognition tasks. Put plainly, the class of an image is invariant to the scale at which it is viewed. We construct scale equivariant cross-correlations based on a princ…
Measure-scaling quasi-isometries on graphs have specific scaling groups.
problem Understanding the scaling groups of graphs under quasi-isometries.
method Analyzing measure-scaling quasi-isometries on graphs and their properties.
result The scaling group of a graph is invariant under measure-scaling quasi-isometries.
The effectiveness of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) has been substantially attributed to their built-in property of translation equivariance. However, CNNs do not have embedded mechanisms to handle other types of transformations. In this work, we pay attention to scale changes, which regularly appear in various t…
Unified scaling laws reveal how model size and training time impact neural network performance.
problem Understanding how much performance improvement can be expected from scaling model size or data volume.
method Established scale-time equivalence and combined it with a linear model analysis of double descent.
result Unified theoretical scaling laws explain previously unexplained phenomena and offer a more accessible path to training large models.
This paper reviews some of the phenomenological models which have been introduced to incorporate the scaling properties of financial data. It also illustrates a microscopic model, based on heterogeneous interacting agents, which provides a possible explanation for the complex dynamics of markets' returns. Scaling and m…
Preprocessing data is an important step before any data analysis. In this paper, we focus on one particular aspect, namely scaling or normalization. We analyze various scaling methods in common use and study their effects on different statistical learning models. We will propose a new two-stage scaling method. First, w…