Enhances price sentiment index using survey comments.
problem Improving accuracy in price sentiment analysis.
method Classified comments from Economy Watchers Survey using LLMs.
result Higher correlation with existing indices.
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48 results for “consumer price index”
A blockchain protocol uses bandit algorithms to dynamically price transactions.
problem Maximizing revenue from decentralized blockchain Indexers competing for queries.
method Dynamic pricing using Gaussian bandits for multiple agents.
result Improved revenue through dynamic pricing in a decentralized blockchain environment.
Study improves retail demand forecasting by integrating macroeconomic data.
problem Lack of accurate demand forecasting due to incomplete data.
method Enriched time series data with macroeconomic variables; compared regression and machine learning models.
result Improved accuracy in predicting retail demand through comprehensive data integration.
BiHRNN predicts inflation by leveraging hierarchical structure and bidirectional RNNs.
problem Accurate inflation forecasting is challenging due to dynamic factors and the layered structure of the Consumer Price Index.
method Bi-directional Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Network (BiHRNN) model that uses bidirectional information flow between levels and informative constraints on RNN parameters.
result BiHRNN significantly outperforms traditional RNN models in forecasting accuracy.
We construct models for the pricing and risk management of inflation-linked derivatives. The models are rational in the sense that linear payoffs written on the consumer price index have prices that are rational functions of the state variables. The nominal pricing kernel is constructed in a multiplicative manner that …
New method learns credit prices offline without interaction.
problem Dynamic pricing of consumer credit.
method Offline deep reinforcement learning with Q-Learning.
result Effective personalized pricing policy learned without online interaction.
Foreign exchange markets show that currency units (= accounting or nominal price units) are variables. Technical and economic progress evidence that the consumer baskets (= purchasing power units or real price units) are also variables. In contrast, all physical measurement units are constants and either defined in the…
From Live to Recording: Consumer Demand and Response to Price Across the Livestreaming Lifecyclestat.ML
Study finds consumers are more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.
problem Understanding consumer demand during livestreaming lifecycle.
method Examined consumer demand for live events and recorded versions using data from a livestreaming platform.
result Demand is more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.
In April 2009, we introduced a model representing the evolution of motor fuel price (a subcategory of the consumer price index of transportation) relative to the overall CPI as a linear function of time. Under our framework, all price deviations from the linear trend are transient and the price must promptly return to …
New inflation model captures correlations and skew in interest rates.
problem Modeling inflation with market correlations and skew.
method Multi-factor volatility structure with parametric correlation calibration, leveraging single-factor Gaussian model.
result Captures market volatility skew with a single process, simplifying model calibration.
Non-spanning identification of scheduled event risk in option pricing.
problem Separating continuous surface from scheduled jump in option pricing.
method Modeling FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and NFP reports as deterministic-time jumps in risk-neutral option pricing.
result Improves held-out event-spanning pricing with Gaussian and two-component mixture jumps.
The paper models US inflation and hyperinflation using monetary and GDP data.
problem Understanding and predicting inflation and hyperinflation.
method Developed economic models to predict US CPI growth based on BMS, GDP, and savings.
result An exact relationship between CPI growth and BMS growth minus GDP and savings growth was found, with a residual term.
Paper proposes using online text data to predict CPI with LLMs.
problem Forecasting Consumer Price Index (CPI) using low-frequency survey-based data.
method Develops an LLM-based approach combining online text time series with monthly CPI data.
result Establishes the asymptotic properties and provides prediction intervals for CPI forecasts.
Study finds market inefficiencies vary by time scale, with news uncertainty key.
problem Evaluating scale-dependent informational efficiency of stock markets.
method Tensor-eigenvalue-based Financial Chaos Index, Granger causality, network analysis.
result Semi-strong form of EMH rejected at daily frequency, but not at monthly.
Analyzes new economic paradigm for non-independent consumer choices.
problem Non-independent consumer choices due to firm supply and consumer information.
method Develops a new mathematical framework for economic systems.
result New paradigm for economic system description is necessary.
New method estimates consumer surplus from randomized pricing data.
problem Estimating consumer surplus from observational data, especially in AI-driven pricing.
method Cumulative Propensity Weights (CPW) and Augmented CPW (ACPW) estimators.
result Validated methods for estimating consumer surplus from randomized pricing data.
The study analyzes macroeconomic factors affecting copper futures volatility and long-term correlation with S&P 500.
problem Understanding the impact of macroeconomic variables on copper futures volatility and long-term correlation.
method Employed GARCH-MIDAS and DCC-MIDAS modeling frameworks to examine the influence of low-frequency macroeconomic variables on copper futures returns and long-term correlation with S&P 500.
result PPI is the most efficient macroeconomic variable impacting copper futures returns, and MIDAS filter improves model fitness and long-run relationship.
System designs for analyzing and pricing non-performing consumer credit portfolios.
problem Technical challenges in analyzing and pricing portfolios of non-performing consumer credit loans.
method Bottom-up architecture, simultaneous quantile regression, R-copula, Gaussian one-factor copula model.
result Successfully developed a methodology for analyzing credit portfolio risks of consumer loans.
Modeling producer and consumer interactions in commodity markets with risk aversion.
problem Analyzing the impact of risk aversion on producer-consumer interactions in commodity markets.
method Linear-quadratic McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential game, martingale optimality principle, BSDEs.
result Characterization of Nash equilibrium and indifference prices.
Understanding how housing values evolve over time is important to policy makers, consumers and real estate professionals. Existing methods for constructing housing indices are computed at a coarse spatial granularity, such as metropolitan regions, which can mask or distort price dynamics apparent in local markets, such…
Swing options on the gas market are american style option where daily quantities exercices are constrained and global quantities exerciced each year constrained too. The option holder has to decide each day how much he consumes of the quantities satisfying the constraints and tries to use a strategy in order to maximiz…
This paper proposes a method for estimating consumer preferences among discrete choices, where the consumer chooses at most one product in a category, but selects from multiple categories in parallel. The consumer's utility is additive in the different categories. Her preferences about product attributes as well as her…
Cryptocurrencies are increasingly correlated with traditional financial markets.
problem Determining the independence of cryptocurrencies from traditional financial markets.
method High-frequency detrended cross-correlation analysis over various time scales and market periods.
result Cryptocurrencies have become more aligned with traditional financial markets, especially during bear phases.
The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis technique is employed to analyze the time series of gold consumer price index (CPI) and the market trend of three world's highest gold consuming countries, namely China, India and Turkey for the period: 1993-July 2013. Various multifractal variables, such as the generaliz…
Dynamic pricing aims to match power supply and demand in an energy transition.
problem Mismatch between renewable energy supply and consumer demand.
method Formalizes decision-making problem, designs forecasting models, and statistical demand response models.
result Dynamic pricing can synchronise power supply and demand effectively.
We develop a probabilistic consumer choice framework based on information asymmetry between consumers and firms. This framework makes it possible to study market competition of several firms by both quality and price of their products. We find Nash market equilibria and other optimal strategies in various situations ra…
There are clear benefits associated with a particular consumer choice for many current markets. For example, as we consider here, some products might carry environmental or `green' benefits. Some consumers might value these benefits while others do not. However, as evidenced by myriad failed attempts of environmental p…
Existence, uniqueness and efficiency of equilibrium in hedonic markets with multidimenstional typesq-fin.TR
We study equilibrium in hedonic markets, when consumers and suppliers have reservation utilities, and the utility functions are separable with respect to price. There is one indivisible good, which comes in different qualities; each consumer buys 0 or 1 unit, and each supplier sells 0 or 1 unit. Consumer types, supplie…
What Matters to Individual Investors: Price Setting in Online Auctions of P2P Consumer Loansq-fin.GN
Retail investors set interest rates for P2P loans based on borrower characteristics.
problem Understanding how individual investors price credit risk in online consumer loan auctions.
method Reverse auction framework, analyzing interest rate variance and borrower characteristics.
result Retail investors exhibit strong predictability in pricing, with gender and marital status influencing interest rates.
A blockchain replaces central counterparties with time-consuming consensus protocols to record the transfer of ownership. This settlement latency slows cross-exchange trading, exposing arbitrageurs to price risk. Off-chain settlement, instead, exposes arbitrageurs to costly default risk. We show with Bitcoin network an…
On the interplay between fluctuations and efficiency in a model economy with heterogeneous adaptive consumerscond-mat.dis-nn
We discuss the stationary states of a model economy in which heterogeneous adaptive consumers purchase commodity bundles repeatedly from sellers. The system undergoes a transition from an inefficient to an efficient state as the number of consumers increases. In the latter phase, however, price fluctuations may…
We consider the problem of pricing derivatives written on some industrial loss index via utility indifference pricing. The industrial loss index is modelled by a compound Poisson process and the insurer can adjust her portfolio by choosing the risk loading, which in turn determines the demand. We compute the price of a…
A self-organized criticality participative pricing mechanism for selling zero-marginal cost productsq-fin.TR
In today's economy, selling a new zero-marginal cost product is a real challenge, as it is difficult to determine a product's "correct" sales price based on its profit and dissemination. As an example, think of the price of a new app or video game. New sales mechanisms for selling this type of product need to be design…
In coming years residential consumers will face real-time electricity tariffs with energy prices varying day to day, and effective energy saving will require automation - a recommender system, which learns consumer's preferences from her actions. A consumer chooses a scenario of home appliance use to balance her comfor…
We solve in closed-form an equilibrium model in which a finite number of exponential investors continuously consume and trade with price-impact. Compared to the analogous Pareto-efficient equilibrium model, price-impact has an amplification effect on risk-sharing distortions that helps resolve the interest rate puzzle …
Bubbles vs. Baselines: Token Valuation and Institutional Capital in PoS Networks under EIP-1559q-fin.MF
Proof-of-Stake networks with EIP-1559 exhibit stable token prices and secure network security.
problem Token valuation and institutional capital in Proof-of-Stake networks under EIP-1559
method Open-economy macroeconomic equilibrium model
result Stable steady-state equilibrium price for ETH
Bayesian model estimates feature values of premium products.
problem Understanding the monetary value of product features.
method Bayesian Hierarchical Logit Model
result Successfully recovers true feature valuations from data.
Pricing commodity index optionsq-fin.PR
Model prices commodity futures and index options.
problem Deriving accurate prices for derivative contracts on commodity futures and indices.
method Stochastic local volatility model for commodity futures.
result Model accurately recovers prices of derivative claims.
An analytic model is presented that considers the evolution of a market of durable goods. The model suggests that after introduction goods spread always according to a Bass diffusion. However, this phase will be followed by a diffusion process for durable consumer goods governed by a variation-selection-reproduction me…
Understanding consumption dynamics and its impact on the whole economy and welfare within the present economic crisis is not an easy task. Indeed the level of consumer demand for different goods varies with the prices, consumer incomes and demographic factors. Furthermore crisis may trigger different behaviors which re…
Analyzes how inclusion/exclusion from STOXX Europe 600 Index affects company prices.
problem Understanding price dynamics of companies in STOXX Europe 600 Index.
method Used logit models and neural networks to analyze data.
result Identified independent variables affecting price changes.
In 1979 following a decade of hyperinflation, Iceland introduced Verðtryggð lán, negatively amortised, index-linked loans whose outstanding principal is increased by the rate of the consumer price inflation index(CPI). The loans were part of a general government policy which used indexation to the CPI to address the ec…
Credit scoring plays a vital role in the field of consumer finance. Survival analysis provides an advanced solution to the credit-scoring problem by quantifying the probability of survival time. In order to deal with highly heterogeneous industrial data collected in Chinese market of consumer finance, we propose a nonp…
Paper proposes a method to estimate consumer valuations from bundle sales data.
problem Estimating consumer valuations from bundle sales data using classical methods is challenging.
method Proposes an approach using EM algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation to estimate consumer valuations from bundle sales data.
result The approach can recover the distribution of consumers' valuations and is robust to unobserved no-purchases and clustered market segments.
Extends pricing methods for index options under rough volatility.
problem Pricing and hedging of index options under non-Markovian dynamics.
method Extension of large deviations methods to non-local volatility dynamics, specifically rough volatility.
result Validates the approach for pricing index options under rough volatility.
The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on the real-time wholesale electricity prices to the end consumers, and is shown t…
We propose a new NFT price index to track the digital art market.
problem Lack of a comprehensive NFT price index.
method Developed a new methodology to create a NFT Price Index.
result Demonstrated the dynamics and performances of NFT markets.
Notwithstanding almost forty years of efforts, the market for paintings still lacks a widely accepted price index. In this paper, we introduce a simple and intuitive metric to construct such index. Our metric is based on the price of a painting divided by its area. This formulation rests on a solid mathematical foundat…