The model analyzes order flows in financial markets using Cox-type intensities.
problem Analyzing order dynamics in limit order books for market insights.
method Cox-type model for relative intensities, parameter estimation by quasi likelihood maximization, model selection with information criteria.
result The model provides excellent agreement with empirical data and identifies important factors in order book dynamics.
IDPGs extend RDPGs with a Poisson process for random latent positions.
problem Modeling randomness in latent positions for graph structure.
method Introduce IDPGs using Poisson point processes on latent Euclidean space.
result Continuous analogues of adjacency matrices link latent structure to observed graphs.
We develop and test a fast and accurate semi-analytical formula for single-name default swaptions in the context of a shifted square root jump diffusion (SSRJD) default intensity model. The model can be calibrated to the CDS term structure and a few default swaptions, to price and hedge other credit derivatives consist…
A novel method for efficiently integrating spatiotemporal point processes.
problem Challenges in integrating spatiotemporal neural point processes, especially for flexible intensity functions.
method AutoSTPP (Automatic Integration for Spatiotemporal Neural Point Processes) extends a dual network approach to 3D STPP using ProdNet for decomposable parametrization of the integral network.
result AutoSTPP effectively sidesteps computational complexities and shows significant advantage in recovering complex intensity functions.
Framework for continuous-time network data representation learning.
problem Learning reliable representations of dynamic network interactions.
method Three-stage process: intensity estimation, projection learning, evolving node representation construction.
result Trajectories satisfy structural and temporal coherence, providing robust inference.
New model predicts credit spreads using stochastic CIR++ intensities.
problem Lack of continuous stochastic credit spread models and limited term structure models.
method Stochastic CIR++ model for default intensities in risk-neutral space.
result Model produces realistic credit spread term structure curves and consistent diffusion over time.
Paper studies convergence rates from surrogate risk minimizers to Bayes optimal classifier.
problem Analyzing the convergence rates of surrogate risk minimizers to the Bayes optimal classifier.
method Introducing consistency intensity to characterize surrogate loss functions and using it to derive convergence rates.
result Empirical surrogate risk minimizers converge faster to the Bayes optimal classifier under certain conditions.
This paper quantifies privacy-robustness and generalization-robustness trade-offs in adversarial training.
problem Privacy and generalization issues in adversarial training.
method Defines robustified intensity and empirical robustified intensity to measure robustness, proving differential privacy and generalization bounds.
result Proves adversarial training is (ε,δ)-differentially private and provides generalization bounds. The paper studies how expert opinions improve stock return predictions in a market with a hidden drift.
problem Improving stock return predictions in a market with a hidden Gaussian drift.
method Uses Kalman filter techniques to estimate the hidden drift from noisy expert opinions and stock returns.
result The Kalman filter estimates of the drift converge to the hidden drift as the frequency of expert opinions increases.
Generative model combines shape and intensity priors for left atrium segmentation.
problem Challenges in segmenting left atrium MRI images due to shape variation and multimodality.
method Generative image model with mixture of Gaussians for shape priors and autoencoders for intensity priors.
result Maximizes posterior probability using a mixture of Gaussians for shape priors and autoencoders for intensity priors.
We consider the problem of learning the inhomogeneous intensity of a counting process, under a sparse segmentation assumption. We introduce a weighted total-variation penalization, using data-driven weights that correctly scale the penalization along the observation interval. We prove that this leads to a sharp tuning …
Study dynamic hedging of credit risk using a new model.
problem Dynamic hedging of counterparty risk for credit derivatives.
method Empirically driven credit model with interacting default intensities; Galtchouk-Kunita-Watanabe decomposition; closed-form risk minimizing strategy.
result Closed-form representation for risk minimizing strategy in nonlinear recursive systems.
We investigate the growth optimal strategy over a finite time horizon for a stock and bond portfolio in an analytically solvable multiplicative Markovian market model. We show that the optimal strategy consists in holding the amount of capital invested in stocks within an interval around an ideal optimal investment. Th…
Machine learning speeds up the construction of virus assembly fitness landscapes.
problem Constructing realistic evolutionary fitness landscapes for viruses is computationally expensive.
method Developed a neural network to model virus assembly efficiency from a whole genome/phenotype space.
result Machine learning significantly reduces the computational time for constructing fitness landscapes.
Neural network model improves sepsis detection and prediction in ICU patients.
problem Improving sepsis detection and prediction in ICU patients.
method Rule-based and machine learning models, neural network ensemble model.
result Neural network model achieves highest AUC in detecting and predicting sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock.
Study detects boundaries in unlabeled noisy images without labels.
problem Detecting boundaries in unlabeled noisy images without labels.
method Proposed a continuous hinge-type surrogate loss for boundary detection, combined with deep neural networks.
result Deep neural network achieves minimax-optimal boundary recovery rate under piecewise smooth boundary model.
We propose an efficient method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic spatial models.
problem Computational demands and restrictive assumptions in existing doubly-stochastic spatial models.
method Penalized regression method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic point processes.
result Consistency and asymptotic normality of the covariate effect estimates achieved despite model misspecification.
Neural Diffusion Intensity Models simplify Cox processes inference.
problem Intractable nonparametric estimation and posterior inference of latent stochastic intensity in Cox processes.
method Variational framework using neural SDEs, with theoretical guarantee of ELBO maximization coinciding with maximum likelihood estimation.
result Accurate recovery of latent intensity dynamics and posterior paths with significant speedup.
Examines GARCH intensity model for risk-neutral option pricing.
problem Volatility clustering, leverage effect, and conditional asymmetry in financial returns.
method Risk-neutral option pricing method under GARCH intensity model.
result Flexibility in volatility changes according to probability measure.
Study uses multidimensional SE-NBD process to analyze default portfolios and identify shock amplification.
problem Analyzing interactions and shock propagation in default portfolios with multiple sectors.
method Applied multidimensional self-exciting negative binomial distribution (SE-NBD) process to 13 sectors.
result Identified upstream and downstream sectors, showing shock amplification in default portfolios.
Bayesian approach for inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity estimation.
problem Intractable integral in likelihood of Gaussian Cox process.
method Joint modeling of intensity and cumulative intensity as transformed Gaussian process; exact MCMC sampler.
result Exact posterior inference without approximations.
Method uses deep learning to estimate traffic intensity.
problem Estimating stochastic intensity of traffic processes.
method Deep neural networks for nonlinear filtering.
result Deep learning method accurately estimates traffic intensity.
In this work we construct an optimal linear shrinkage estimator for the covariance matrix in high dimensions. The recent results from the random matrix theory allow us to find the asymptotic deterministic equivalents of the optimal shrinkage intensities and estimate them consistently. The developed distribution-free es…
A new deep learning method using Boolean logic reduces training and inference energy.
problem High computational and energy costs in deep learning training and inference.
method Introduces Boolean weights and inputs for efficient training using Boolean logic.
result Achieves full-precision accuracy in ImageNet classification and surpasses state-of-the-art results in semantic segmentation.
We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes with differing decays.
problem Simulating and calibrating Hawkes processes with various decay rates.
method Superposition theory of point processes, decomposition of inter-arrival times, auxiliary variables, Gibbs samplers, adaptive rejection sampling.
result Significant improvement in algorithm speed and accurate simulation of Hawkes processes.
Deep learning uses complex networks for high-dimensional data.
problem Computational inefficiency in training deep learning models.
method Use of hierarchical latent variables, efficient linear algebra, SGD optimization, and batch sampling.
result Efficient training and inference possible with optimized algorithms.
A new kernel method improves Poisson process intensity estimation.
problem Estimating intensity functions of inhomogeneous Poisson processes.
method Kernel method-based intensity estimator using least squares loss.
result K2IE achieves comparable predictive performance with improved efficiency. A new model reduces Wrong-Way Risk in CVA pricing.
problem Limiting Wrong-Way Risk (WWR) in CVA pricing models.
method Subordinated Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) intensity model with time-changing intensities.
result The new model introduces significant WWR compared to JCIR++.
A new method for brain tissue segmentation across medical centers using a smoothness prior.
problem Tissue segmentation challenges due to center-specific acquisition protocols.
method Developed a smoothness prior that is fit to segmentations from another medical center, integrated into an unsupervised Bayesian model.
result Segmentations are similarly smooth across centers, improving generalization.
Study identifies two borrowing patterns in UK payday loan users.
problem Financial vulnerability of payday loan users.
method Two-state hidden Markov model (HMM) using Open Banking data.
result 36.4% of borrowers experience high-intensity exposure for 12 weeks or more.
This paper introduces a new market-based carbon risk measure for portfolio optimization.
problem The challenge of measuring and managing carbon risk in investment portfolios.
method Develops a market-based carbon risk measure and applies it to minimum variance portfolio construction.
result Market-based carbon risk measures can complement fundamental-based approaches in portfolio optimization.
We develop a multi-curve term structure setup in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to LIBOR swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor lognormal multi-curve model is sufficient to match market data with accuracy. We elucidate the relationship…
Model predicts bid and ask price dynamics with spread-dependent intensities.
problem Predicting bid and ask price dynamics in high-frequency stock markets.
method Extended Hawkes process with zero intensities, spread-dependent intensities, and negative excitement.
result Spread-narrowing tendency, excitations caused by previous events, impact of flash crashes, and different market participant features.
This paper discusses properties of a Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process (DSPP) where the intensity process belongs to a class of affine diffusions. For any intensity process from this class we derive an analytical expression for probability distribution functions of the corresponding DSPP. A specification of our results…
Intensity augmentation improves breast MRI segmentation accuracy.
problem Improving segmentation accuracy across different MRI scanners and protocols.
method Applied intensity augmentation in addition to geometric augmentation during training.
result Increased segmentation performance from 0.71 to 0.90.
We provide analytical pricing formula of corporate defaultable bond with both expected and unexpected default in the case with stochastic default intensity. In the case with constant short rate and exogenous default recovery using PDE method, we gave some pricing formula of the defaultable bond under the conditions tha…
Many users in online social networks are constantly trying to gain attention from their followers by broadcasting posts to them. These broadcasters are likely to gain greater attention if their posts can remain visible for a longer period of time among their followers' most recent feeds. Then when to post? In this pape…
Study improves Cox model for predicting stock trading signs using Japanese market data.
problem Improving Cox model for predicting stock trading signs using Japanese market data.
method Added new covariates and used high-frequency trading data for 222 Nikkei 225 stocks.
result Cox-type model performs well in Japanese market and identifies key factors for accurate estimation.
Unified market making controls risk, arbitrage, and volatility surfaces.
problem Market making risk, arbitrage, and volatility surface consistency.
method Constrained RL and stochastic control for risk-sensitive execution and hedging.
result Agent achieves positive P&L with zero calendar and butterfly violations.
New models directly model inter-event times without intensity functions.
problem Learning temporal point processes with intensity-based approaches.
method Normalizing flows and mixture models for flexible and efficient modeling.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance in prediction tasks.
Study examines Indian equity mutual funds' investment style and risk-shifting.
problem Understanding how Indian equity mutual funds' investment styles affect their returns.
method Estimating size and style beta coefficients, identifying breakpoints, analyzing investment styles, and assessing risk-shifting intensity.
result Funds can enhance returns by shifting to high-return styles like Small Value and Small Blend.
We propose a novel method for automatic pain intensity estimation from facial images based on the framework of kernel Conditional Ordinal Random Fields (KCORF). We extend this framework to account for heteroscedasticity on the output labels(i.e., pain intensity scores) and introduce a novel dynamic features, dynamic ra…
Introduces ambiguity in credit risk markets using intensity-based models.
problem Uncertainty in default intensity in credit markets.
method Introduces a framework considering ambiguity in default intensity, constructs equivalent martingale measures using Girsanov theorem, and derives no-arbitrage price intervals.
result Derives the interval of no-arbitrage prices for bond prices under ambiguity in default intensity.
Analyzed a generalized voter model with power-law herding intensity, revealing anomalous diffusion and long-range memory.
problem Anomalous diffusion and long-range memory in a generalized voter model.
method Derived analytical expressions for moments and first passage time distribution, confirmed numerically.
result The model exhibits long-range memory indicators despite being a Markov model.
The paper analyzes multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
problem Analyzing the time-dependent joint probability distribution of multivariate Hawkes processes.
method Exact and asymptotic analysis of general multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
result Full characterization of the time-dependent joint transform of the multivariate population process and its intensity process.
Information theoretical measures, such as entropy, mutual information, and various divergences, exhibit robust characteristics in image registration applications. However, the estimation of these quantities is computationally intensive in high dimensions. On the other hand, consistent estimation from pairwise distances…
New method models intensity functions on spheres using normalizing flows.
problem Modeling non-homogeneous Poisson process intensity functions on the sphere.
method Flexible bijective map using normalizing flows to transform intensity functions.
result Normalizing flows provide a flexible way to model intensity functions on spheres.
Proposes a flexible neural network model for temporal point processes.
problem Limited expressiveness of RNN-based models for temporal point processes.
method Integrates intensity function using a feedforward neural network and calculates it as its derivative.
result Achieves competitive or superior performance compared to previous methods.