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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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127255382509 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for conservative predictions

Proposes a conservative LR estimator for infrequent data near a frequency threshold.

problem Overestimation of likelihood ratios for infrequent data near a frequency threshold.
method Conservative likelihood ratio estimator for frequencies slightly above a threshold.
result Improves prediction accuracy in named entity context prediction.

We propose a dynamical model for business cycle based on an optimal DI model. In the model there exists a conserved quantity, which corresponds to the total energy in a dynamical system. We found that the business cycle with the period 6 or 7 years is nicely reproduced, since the model predicts a periodic motion in the…

2008-03-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Predicting absolute magnitude of fluctuations of price, even if their sign remains unknown, is important for risk analysis and for option prices. In the present work, we display our predictions about absolute magnitude of daily fluctuations of the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA), utilizing the original theory of c…

2006-02-08abs ↗pdf ↗

New neural network enforces mass conservation for better ice flow predictions.

problem Reliably project future sea level rise by improving ice sheet model inputs.
method Proposes divergence-free neural networks (dfNNs) enforcing local mass conservation.
result dfNNs yield more reliable ice flux estimates compared to other models.

EcoCast predicts biodiversity risks using satellite data and citizen science records.

problem Unprecedented shifts in species distributions due to climate change and habitat loss.
method Spatio-temporal model using sequence-based transformers and continual learning.
result Promising improvements in forecasting bird species distributions compared to Random Forest.

New framework models non-conservative stochastic processes without energy conservation constraints.

problem Existing Schrödinger Bridge methods are limited by energy-conservation assumptions.
method Introduces non-conservative generalized Schrödinger bridge (NCGSB) based on contact Hamiltonian mechanics.
result Contact Wasserstein geodesic (CWG) provides a broader class of real-world stochastic processes.

AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.

problem Creating valid and accurate prediction intervals for machine learning models.
method AutoML framework that optimizes prediction interval length for better accuracy and less conservatism.
result AutoCP significantly outperforms benchmark algorithms in constructing accurate prediction intervals.

Novel method combines physics priors for energy-conserving dynamics.

problem Learning long-term dynamics of complex physical systems from noisy data.
method Variational Integrator Graph Networks integrating energy constraint, high-order symplectic integrators, and graph neural networks.
result Improves predictive performance across single and many-body problems.

The paper analyzes how conformal prediction works with contaminated reference data.

problem The impact of contamination on the validity and power of conformal prediction methods.
method The paper analyzes the impact of contamination on the validity of conformal methods and proposes a data-cleaning framework to enhance power.
result The proposed data-cleaning framework can effectively enhance power while maintaining type-I error control.

Bayesian deep ensembles improve prediction accuracy in various settings.

problem Improving prediction accuracy of deep ensembles in out-of-distribution settings.
method Introducing a randomised, untrainable function to each ensemble member, enabling a posterior predictive distribution interpretation.
result Bayesian deep ensembles make more conservative predictions and outperform standard ensembles in various tasks.

Theoretical proof shows COMs are a type of contrastive divergence model with improved sampling.

problem Improving sampling quality in offline model-based optimization.
method Showed COMs are contrastive divergence models, proposed Langevin MCMC sampler, and decoupled model.
result Improved sampling quality achieved by decoupling model and using Langevin MCMC.

Unified neural network framework for context-aware Gaussian overbounds in uncertainty propagation.

problem Uncertainty quantification in safety-critical settings requires conservative bounds, but existing methods often fail to compose and are overly conservative.
method Proposes a learning framework that trains neural networks to produce context-aware Gaussian overbounds with provable conservatism.
result The method yields tighter bounds while maintaining conservatism on the enforced grid and in experiments.

An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a coming recession in them. An emerging market, Istanbul Stock Exchange index IS…

2005-06-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Theoretical analysis confirms non-conservative algorithms can converge to optimal policies.

problem Theoretical guarantees for non-conservative reinforcement learning algorithms.
method Theoretical analysis of Peng's Q(λλ) algorithm.
result Peng's Q(λλ) converges to an optimal policy under certain conditions.

Study finds conserved quantities for two types of curves on conformal sphere.

problem Identifying conserved quantities for specific types of curves on a conformal sphere.
method Used parallel tractor and Lagrangian formalism to compute conserved quantities.
result Found relation between conserved quantities of two curve types.

Paper presents a reduction-based framework for conservative bandits and RL with improved lower and upper bounds.

problem Conservative bandits and reinforcement learning problems.
method Reduction technique to calculate necessary and sufficient budget from baseline policy.
result Improved lower and upper bounds for various conservative settings.

SSINNs learn Hamiltonian systems from data with interpretable, low-memory models.

problem Learning Hamiltonian dynamical systems from data efficiently and accurately.
method Combines fourth-order symplectic integration with sparse regression for a learned Hamiltonian.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in system prediction and energy conservation.

New framework calibrates decision robustness using inverse conformal risk control.

problem Inadequate robustness levels in decision-making due to ad hoc choices.
method Constructs valid estimators to trace miscoverage-regret Pareto frontier.
result Provides distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees on robustness levels.

Given a vector field on a manifold M, we define a globally conserved quantity to be a differential form whose Lie derivative is exact. Integrals of conserved quantities over suitable submanifolds are constant under time evolution, the Kelvin circulation theorem being a well-known special case. More generally, conserved…

2016-10-18abs ↗pdf ↗

We study higher-order conservation laws of the non-linearizable elliptic Poisson equation 2uzzˉ=f(u) \frac{{\partial}^2 u}{\partial z \partial \bar{z}} = -f(u) as elements of the characteristic cohomology of the associated exterior differential system. The theory of characteristic cohomology determines a normal form for diffe…

2009-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

A novel spatio-temporal graph neural network with a learnable Tweedie head improves vessel traffic flow prediction in sparse maritime data.

problem Accurate vessel traffic flow prediction in sparse maritime data.
method A model-agnostic learnable Tweedie head attached to ST-GNN backbones.
result The proposed head consistently improves RMSE across multiple ST-GNN backbones, especially on non-zero events.

New conservation laws found for polyharmonic maps in critical dimension.

problem Existence of conservation laws for polyharmonic maps in critical dimension.
method Small perturbation of Uhlenbeck's gauge fixing matrix.
result Existence of conservation laws for elliptic systems of even order in critical dimension.

A challenging problem in complex networks is the network reconstruction problem from data. This work deals with a class of networks denoted as conserved networks, in which a flow associated with every edge and the flows are conserved at all non-source and non-sink nodes. We propose a novel polynomial time algorithm to …

2019-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

New method for accurate uncertainty estimation in deep learning predictions.

problem Insufficient methods for assessing prediction uncertainty in deep learning.
method Valid non-parametric bootstrap method for deep neural networks.
result Accurate confidence intervals and simultaneous confidence bands for survival data.

The paper studies symmetries and conservation laws of non-diagonalisable hydrodynamic systems.

problem Integrating non-diagonalisable hydrodynamic systems of partial differential equations.
method Analysis of gl-regular Nijenhuis operators, splitting Theorem for symmetries and conservation laws, relationship between symmetries and conservation laws.
result The system of partial differential equations is integrable in quadratures.

We present a connection between the Killing fields that arise in the loop-group approach to integrable systems and conservation laws viewed as elements of the characteristic cohomology. We use the connection to generate the complete set of conservation laws (as elements of the characteristic cohomology) for the Tzitzei…

2012-08-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Phase segregation, the process by which the components of a binary mixture spontaneously separate, is a key process in the evolution and design of many chemical, mechanical, and biological systems. In this work, we present a data-driven approach for the learning, modeling, and prediction of phase segregation. A direct …

2018-03-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Algorithm learns latent variables for thermodynamically-consistent deep neural networks.

problem Predicting time evolution of large-scale physical systems with thermodynamic consistency.
method Sparse autoencoders and structure-preserving neural networks.
result Method conserves total energy and entropy inequality for both conservative and dissipative systems.

LFlows model fluid densities and velocities using invertible maps that satisfy the continuity equation.

problem Modeling fluid densities and velocities continuously in space and time.
method LFlows are based on invertible maps that satisfy the continuity equation, derived from classical theory of Lagrangian flows for smooth vector fields.
result LFlows show higher predictive accuracy in density modeling tasks compared to competing models in 2D and 3D.

The study finds resonance points in polarised curves with polynomial conserved quantities.

problem Finding resonance points in polarised curves with polynomial conserved quantities.
method Using the non-orthogonality assumption on the conserved quantity, the study deduces the existence of resonance points.
result Every finite type polarised curve in the conformal 2-sphere with a polynomial conserved quantity admits a resonance point.