A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Bayesian framework for online consensus prediction from expert feedback.
WISCA generates consensus explanations from conflicting model-agnostic interpretability methods.
Bayesian consensus improves accuracy of forecasts from miscalibrated sources.
CB-APM uses analyst consensus as a bottleneck to interpret stock returns.
We present here an introduction to Brainstorming approach, that was recently proposed as a consensus meta-learning technique, and used in several practical applications in bioinformatics and chemoinformatics. The consensus learning denotes heterogeneous theoretical classification method, where one trains an ensemble of…
A method for consensus prediction from probabilistic classifier outputs.
Decentralized mechanism for collective predictions without sharing data or models.
In the era of big data, a large amount of noisy and incomplete data can be collected from multiple sources for prediction tasks. Combining multiple models or data sources helps to counteract the effects of low data quality and the bias of any single model or data source, and thus can improve the robustness and the perf…
In this paper I empirically investigate prediction markets for binary options. Advocates of prediction markets have suggested that asset prices are consistent estimators of the "true" probability of a state of the world being realized. I test whether the market reaches a "consensus." I find little evidence for converge…
Aggregates predictions from multiple regression models using random projections and kernel methods.
Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success in various challenging tasks. However, the black-box nature of such networks is not acceptable to critical applications, such as healthcare. In particular, the existence of adversarial examples and their overgeneralization to irrelevant, out-of-distribution inputs w…
Condorcet's Jury Theorem has been invoked for ensemble classifiers to indicate that the combination of many classifiers can have better predictive performance than a single classifier. Such a theoretical underpinning is unknown for consensus clustering. This article extends Condorcet's Jury Theorem to the mean partitio…
We describe an exercise of using Big Data to predict the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a widely used indicator of the state of confidence in the US economy. We carry out the exercise from a pure ex ante perspective. We use the methodology of algorithmic text analysis of an archive of brokers' reports over the peri…
The AIBC is an Artificial Intelligence and blockchain technology based large-scale decentralized ecosystem that allows system-wide low-cost sharing of computing and storage resources. The AIBC consists of four layers: a fundamental layer, a resource layer, an application layer, and an ecosystem layer. The AIBC implemen…
Unified view connects CoCoA and ADMM for distributed ERM.
New algorithm improves multitask learning across diverse agents.
Community moderation drifts towards majority, study finds.
In distributed machine learning, where agents collaboratively learn from diverse private data sets, there is a fundamental tension between consensus and optimality. In this paper, we build on recent algorithmic progresses in distributed deep learning to explore various consensus-optimality trade-offs over a fixed commu…
Paper analyzes convergence of decentralized algorithms with noise and bias.
Paper proves PI consensus algorithm converges exponentially under restricted secant inequality.
We use a cluster ensemble to determine the number of clusters, k, in a group of data. A consensus similarity matrix is formed from the ensemble using multiple algorithms and several values for k. A random walk is induced on the graph defined by the consensus matrix and the eigenvalues of the associated transition proba…
To devise efficient solutions for approximating a mean partition in consensus clustering, Dimitriadou et al. [3] presented a necessary condition of optimality for a consensus function based on least square distances. We show that their result is pivotal for deriving interesting properties of consensus clustering beyond…
Retraining with predicted labels improves model accuracy in noisy settings.
A new algorithm reduces communication in decentralized optimization.
Consensus clustering fuses diverse basic partitions (i.e., clustering results obtained from conventional clustering methods) into an integrated one, which has attracted increasing attention in both academic and industrial areas due to its robust and effective performance. Tremendous research efforts have been made to t…
We analyze the generalized Mallows model, a popular exponential model over rankings. Estimating the central (or consensus) ranking from data is NP-hard. We obtain the following new results: (1) We show that search methods can estimate both the central ranking pi0 and the model parameters theta exactly. The search is n!…
Purpose - This paper seeks to take a cautionary stance to the impact of the marketing mix on customer satisfaction, via a case study deriving consensus rankings for benchmarking on selected retail stores in Malaysia. Design/methodology/approach - The ELECTRE I model is used in deriving consensus rankings via multicrite…
Machine learning models trained on indirect data labels can fail on real-world examples.
Adversaries can manipulate cooperative MARL networks.
A novel framework for consensus clustering is presented which has the ability to determine both the number of clusters and a final solution using multiple algorithms. A consensus similarity matrix is formed from an ensemble using multiple algorithms and several values for k. A variety of dimension reduction techniques …
In this paper, we introduce a new learning strategy based on a seminal idea of Mojirsheibani (1999, 2000, 2002a, 2002b), who proposed a smart method for combining several classifiers, relying on a consensus notion. In many aggregation methods, the prediction for a new observation x is computed by building a linear or c…
Determinantal consensus clustering improves clustering robustness.
DOMKL learns functions from IoT data with minimal regret and consensus constraints.
CoHiRF extends clustering methods to handle high-dimensional data efficiently.
IMPACC improves consensus clustering for bioinformatics data.
The distribution of price returns for a class of uncorrelated diffusive dynamics is considered. The basic assumptions are (1) that there is a "consensus" value associated with a stock, and (2) that the rate of diffusion depends on the deviation of the stock price from the consensus value. We find an analytical expressi…
Consensus dimension reduction combines multiple visualizations to identify shared patterns.
SBO uses dual voting to build consensus in noisy feedback settings.
This paper optimizes cryptocurrency portfolios by clustering price correlations and improving risk-return profiles.
The present paper considers distributed consensus algorithms that involve N agents evolving on a connected compact homogeneous manifold. The agents track no external reference and communicate their relative state according to a communication graph. The consensus problem is formulated in terms of the extrema of a cost f…
We propose a scalable Bayesian preference learning method for jointly predicting the preferences of individuals as well as the consensus of a crowd from pairwise labels. Peoples' opinions often differ greatly, making it difficult to predict their preferences from small amounts of personal data. Individual biases also m…
Study on consensus formation in manifolds with curvature constraints.
New Ising models improve consensus clustering on specialized hardware.
Deep learning has demonstrated abilities to learn complex structures, but they can be restricted by available data. Recently, Consensus Networks (CNs) were proposed to alleviate data sparsity by utilizing features from multiple modalities, but they too have been limited by the size of labeled data. In this paper, we ex…
Suppose that multiple experts (or learning algorithms) provide us with alternative Bayesian network (BN) structures over a domain, and that we are interested in combining them into a single consensus BN structure. Specifically, we are interested in that the consensus BN structure only represents independences all the g…
Crowdlab uses classifiers to estimate consensus labels and annotator quality.
A new framework for clustering high-dimensional data using vertical shards.
New model corrects bias in crowdsourced ratings for diverse items.