Study finds prediction markets do not converge on consensus beliefs.
problem Lack of consensus in prediction markets.
method Empirical analysis of binary options prediction markets, using order submission decisions to estimate beliefs.
result Interval estimates of mean beliefs cannot exclude aggregate beliefs equal to 0.5.
CB-APM uses analyst consensus as a bottleneck to interpret stock returns.
problem Tackles the challenge of understanding and predicting stock returns using professional beliefs.
method Embeds analyst consensus as a structural bottleneck, treating it as a sufficient statistic for market information.
result CB-APM portfolios exhibit strong monotonic return gradients and robust across different economic conditions.
We consider the problem of belief aggregation: given a group of individual agents with probabilistic beliefs over a set of uncertain events, formulate a sensible consensus or aggregate probability distribution over these events. Researchers have proposed many aggregation methods, although on the question of which is be…
Mobile agents classify images via reinforcement learning and consensus.
problem Image classification using multiple mobile agents.
method Proposed network architecture for local belief formation and feature extraction. Decentralized consensus protocol using reinforcement learning.
result Effectiveness of the proposed framework demonstrated on MNIST dataset.
Bayesian framework for online consensus prediction from expert feedback.
problem Online classification with expert consensus prediction, cost-effective.
method General Bayesian framework for dynamic expert consensus estimation.
result Demonstrated superior performance on large-scale crowdsourced datasets.
Belief networks are a new, potentially important, class of knowledge-based models. ARCO1, currently under development at the Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) and the University of Southern California (USC), is the most advanced reported implementation of these models in a financial forecasting setting. ARCO1's underly…
This study models FOMC policy decisions using debate-based LLMs.
problem Accurately predicting central bank policy decisions, especially FOMC's, is challenging.
method A novel framework that simulates FOMC's collective decision-making process through iterative rounds of LLMs interacting as agents.
result The debate-based approach significantly outperforms standard LLMs in prediction accuracy.
Agents learn implied volatility in financial markets, resolving theory-practice gap.
problem Inconsistent volatility across strike prices in Black-Scholes models.
method Introduce learning agents updating beliefs based on market opinions, prove convergence using control theory.
result Opinion dynamics converge to true implied volatility, resolving model-practice discrepancy.
RL agents fail to generalize to unseen environments, even when dynamics are similar.
problem RL agents fail to generalize to unseen environments despite similar dynamics.
method Analyzed policy learning in POMDPs, formalized training dynamics as instances, and introduced a shared belief representation over an ensemble of specialized policies.
result Maximizing rewards induces instance-specific policies that are suboptimal on the training set.
Community moderation drifts towards majority, study finds.
problem How to ensure crowd-sourced moderation systems trust and reward accurate evaluations.
method Consensus-based auditing with a two-stage algorithm that weights contributors by the stability of their past residuals.
result Minority contributors' evaluations drift towards the majority, and their participation share falls on controversial topics.
Unifies 18 definitions of surprise, classifies them into four categories.
problem Lack of consensus on surprise definition.
method Technical classification into three groups based on agent's belief; conceptual categorization into four types.
result Taxonomy of surprise definitions provides foundation for brain studies.
WISCA generates consensus explanations from conflicting model-agnostic interpretability methods.
problem Conflicting explanations from diverse interpretability algorithms.
method WISCA integrates class probability and normalized attributions to generate consistent explanations.
result WISCA consistently aligns with the most reliable individual method, improving explanation reliability.
The paper explores trade-offs between consensus and optimality in collaborative deep learning.
problem The tension between consensus and optimality in distributed machine learning.
method Proposes i-CDSGD and g-CDSGD algorithms to navigate consensus-optimality trade-offs.
result The proposed algorithms converge for both convex and nonconvex objectives.
Enhances consensus clustering with a stronger Mean Partition Theorem.
problem Improving consensus clustering solutions for mean partition.
method Presented a stronger Mean Partition Theorem and Expected Partition Theorem.
result Shows versatility of the Mean Partition Theorem in multiple applications.
Bayesian consensus improves accuracy of forecasts from miscalibrated sources.
problem Aggregating predictions from miscalibrated and noisy sources.
method Bayesian approach to adjust for bias and noise, using hierarchical models.
result Bayesian consensus estimator is unbiased and more efficient than alternatives.
This paper provides an embedding perspective to consensus clustering.
problem Consensus clustering combines multiple clustering results.
method Transfer categorical partitions to binary coding, spectral embedding, etc.
result Unified two major categories of consensus clustering and connected it to graph embedding.
Paper analyzes convergence of decentralized algorithms with noise and bias.
problem Finite time convergence analysis of decentralized stochastic approximation schemes.
method Separated iterates into consensual parts and consensus error; bounded consensus error in terms of stationarity.
result Decentralized SA scheme converges at O ( log T / T ) {\cal O}(\log T/ \sqrt{T} ) O ( log T / T ) rate. Paper proves PI consensus algorithm converges exponentially under restricted secant inequality.
problem Proving convergence of PI consensus algorithm without convexity.
method Lyapunov theory, restricted secant inequality, rate-matching discretization, local pre-conditioning.
result Exponential convergence of PI consensus algorithm for non-convex functions.
We use a cluster ensemble to determine the number of clusters, k, in a group of data. A consensus similarity matrix is formed from the ensemble using multiple algorithms and several values for k. A random walk is induced on the graph defined by the consensus matrix and the eigenvalues of the associated transition proba…
Modularity is a popular measure of community structure. However, maximizing the modularity can lead to many competing partitions, with almost the same modularity, that are poorly correlated with each other. It can also produce illusory "communities" in random graphs where none exist. We address this problem by using th…
A new algorithm reduces communication in decentralized optimization.
problem Reducing communication in decentralized optimization problems.
method Adaptive randomized communication-efficient algorithmic framework that periodically tracks disagreement error and selects influential edges for communication.
result Strong theoretical convergence guarantees and performance quantification under standard assumptions.
We present here an introduction to Brainstorming approach, that was recently proposed as a consensus meta-learning technique, and used in several practical applications in bioinformatics and chemoinformatics. The consensus learning denotes heterogeneous theoretical classification method, where one trains an ensemble of…
A novel framework for consensus clustering is presented which has the ability to determine both the number of clusters and a final solution using multiple algorithms. A consensus similarity matrix is formed from an ensemble using multiple algorithms and several values for k. A variety of dimension reduction techniques …
Adversaries can manipulate cooperative MARL networks.
problem Fragility of consensus-based MARL algorithms to adversarial attacks.
method Study of adversarial attacks on consensus-based MARL networks.
result Consensus-based MARL algorithms are vulnerable to adversarial manipulation.
Determinantal consensus clustering improves clustering robustness.
problem Robustness of clustering algorithms.
method Use of determinantal point processes (DPP) for random restart of clustering algorithms.
result Determinantal consensus clustering outperforms classical algorithms.
Theoretical extension of Condorcet's Jury Theorem for consensus clustering.
problem Quality of consensus clustering depends on the diversity of sample partitions.
method Extending Condorcet's Jury Theorem to mean partition approach under specific assumptions.
result Limiting the diversity of mean partitions is necessary for controlling the quality of consensus clustering.
CoHiRF extends clustering methods to handle high-dimensional data efficiently.
problem Scalability limits of existing clustering methods.
method Hierarchical consensus framework operating on label assignments.
result Improves robustness and scalability to high-dimensional noise.
IMPACC improves consensus clustering for bioinformatics data.
problem Consensus clustering's inefficiency and lack of interpretability for large-scale data.
method Ensemble minipatch co-occurrences, adaptive sampling of observations and features.
result Significantly improved accuracy and interpretability with substantial computational savings.
Online machine learns from signals robustly using consensus optimization.
problem Signal classification in online settings.
method Reproducing kernel Hilbert space with consensus optimization.
result Robust signal classification achieved.
The distribution of price returns for a class of uncorrelated diffusive dynamics is considered. The basic assumptions are (1) that there is a "consensus" value associated with a stock, and (2) that the rate of diffusion depends on the deviation of the stock price from the consensus value. We find an analytical expressi…
Consensus dimension reduction combines multiple visualizations to identify shared patterns.
problem Conflicting visualizations from different dimension reduction methods.
method Multi-view learning to identify stable patterns across multiple views.
result Consensus visualization effectively identifies shared low-dimensional data structure.
TCNs use multiple modalities to improve semi-supervised learning.
problem Limited labeled data in semi-supervised learning.
method TCNs combine adversarial training and latent representation similarity to reach consensus.
result TCNs outperform benchmarks with 20-200 labeled samples.
SBO uses dual voting to build consensus in noisy feedback settings.
problem Collective decision-making under social influence.
method Dual voting system with noisy public votes and private interviews.
result Efficient consensus-building through noisy public votes, debiased by estimated social graph.
The present paper considers distributed consensus algorithms that involve N agents evolving on a connected compact homogeneous manifold. The agents track no external reference and communicate their relative state according to a communication graph. The consensus problem is formulated in terms of the extrema of a cost f…
Generalized belief propagation converges to optimal solutions on graphs with motifs.
problem Understanding belief propagation on loopy graphs.
method Study of generalized belief propagation on graphs with motifs.
result Generalized belief propagation converges to the global optimum of the Bethe free energy.
Study risk sharing with Lambda VaR under diverse beliefs.
problem Risk sharing among agents with different beliefs.
method Use Lambda Value-at-Risk as preference, analyze under heterogeneous beliefs.
result Explicit formulas for risk sharing under various belief scenarios.
Study on consensus formation in manifolds with curvature constraints.
problem Long-time behavior of solutions to nonlocal PDEs on Riemannian manifolds.
method Analytical and numerical methods applied to self-collective models.
result Sufficient conditions for consensus formation and convergence rates quantified.
New Ising models improve consensus clustering on specialized hardware.
problem Consensus clustering optimization problems.
method Formulated consensus clustering as Ising models and evaluated on specialized hardware.
result Our Ising models outperform existing techniques on consensus clustering.
New method learns belief representations for GAIL in POMDPs.
problem Imitation learning in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs).
method Joint learning of belief module and policy with task-aware imitation loss and belief regularization.
result Our BMIL approach outperforms GAIL and task-agnostic belief learning.
Belief propagation recovers backpropagation results.
problem Connection between backpropagation and belief propagation poorly understood.
method Converted backpropagation input to belief propagation input and showed results.
result Backpropagation is a special case of belief propagation.
New framework analyzes belief evolution in social networks.
problem Analyzing belief evolution in social networks.
method Proposes a new theoretical framework using Markov chain theory for horizontal and vertical transmission.
result Homophily-based networks do not converge to a single set of beliefs.
Suppose that multiple experts (or learning algorithms) provide us with alternative Bayesian network (BN) structures over a domain, and that we are interested in combining them into a single consensus BN structure. Specifically, we are interested in that the consensus BN structure only represents independences all the g…
Crowdlab uses classifiers to estimate consensus labels and annotator quality.
problem Leveraging multiple annotators for data classification.
method Weighted ensemble approach using any trained classifier.
result Superior estimates for consensus labels and annotator quality.
A neural architecture learns and refines graph correspondences.
problem Learning structural correspondences between graphs.
method Two-stage neural architecture: node embeddings followed by message passing networks.
result Message passing scheme computes well-founded consensus for corresponding neighborhoods.
A new framework for clustering high-dimensional data using vertical shards.
problem Clustering high-dimensional data with the curse of dimensionality.
method Vertical Consensus Inference (VCI) that splits data into vertical shards for posterior inference.
result VCI can approximate inference on random partitions for high-dimensional data.
ANN clusters multi-view data by agglomerating subviews and avoiding postprocessing.
problem Challenges in multi-view clustering, especially subview agglomeration.
method Agglomerative Neural Network (ANN) using Constrained Laplacian Rank.
result ANN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in multi-view clustering.
The paper improves consensus-based optimization for private data sharing.
problem Privacy leakage in distributed optimization algorithms.
method Adding random noise to messages to achieve ( ε , δ ) (ε, δ) ( ε , δ ) -differential privacy. result The method converges with a bounded mean-squared error while maintaining privacy.
Belief Propagation solves a relaxed network flow problem.
problem Generalized Min-Cost Network Flow with relaxed flow conservation constraints.
method Extends Belief Propagation to solve a new class of network flow problems.
result Belief Propagation converges to the exact solution of the relaxed network flow problem.