The paper uses conformal prediction for forecasting conflict sequences in Markov processes.
problem Forecasting future conflict states for national policy decisions.
method Conformal prediction on Markov processes for temporally-dependent data.
result Conformal prediction provides valid uncertainty quantification and robustness to model misspecification.
Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions to measure evidence conflict and stability.
problem Modern data analysis lacks mechanisms to show the clarity, conflict, or stability of evidence behind predictions.
method Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions.
result SEF measures conflict and stability, and shows that conflict can improve loss prediction beyond confidence.
Paper defines predictive multiplicity and measures its severity in classification problems.
problem Challenges in machine learning due to competing models with conflicting predictions.
method Formal measures and integer programming tools for linear classification problems.
result Real-world datasets may admit competing models with wildly conflicting predictions.
Enhances conformal prediction for better uncertainty estimates in armed conflict fatalities.
problem Lack of individual-level uncertainty estimates in existing forecasting models.
method Introduces bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) to improve coverage rates across subsets of the outcome variable.
result Demonstrates improved local coverage and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across various ranges of fatalities.
Introduces Rashomon Capacity to measure predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classifiers.
problem Predictive multiplicity in classification models leading to unjustified decisions.
method Introduces Rashomon Capacity, a metric for probabilistic classifiers, and provides a rigorous derivation.
result Rashomon Capacity captures nuanced score variations and provides strategies for disclosing conflicting models.
Hybrid model improves geopolitical conflict forecasting.
problem Forecasting geopolitical events from sparse, bursty data.
method Sparse Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) + Variational Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (VNNGP).
result Consistently outperforms standalone TFT in long-range horizons.
Novel approach uses Gaussian processes to estimate conflict trends.
problem Estimating temporal and spatial patterns of violent conflict.
method Highly disaggregated conflict event data with Gaussian processes.
result Powerful conflict forecasts and insights into conflict dynamics.
WISCA generates consensus explanations from conflicting model-agnostic interpretability methods.
problem Conflicting explanations from diverse interpretability algorithms.
method WISCA integrates class probability and normalized attributions to generate consistent explanations.
result WISCA consistently aligns with the most reliable individual method, improving explanation reliability.
The deterrent effect of military alliances is well documented and widely accepted. However, such work has typically assumed that alliances are exogenous. This is problematic as alliances may simultaneously influence the probability of conflict and be influenced by the probability of conflict. Failing to account for suc…
The paper shows conflict graphs of Petersen family graphs are mostly unbalanced.
problem Understanding the balance of conflict graphs in Petersen family graphs.
method Analyzing maximally planar subgraphs and their conflict graphs.
result All but three strong conflict graphs from Petersen Family Graphs are unbalanced.
Unified approach detects traffic conflicts across various interactions.
problem Inconsistent detection of traffic conflicts across different interactions.
method Unified probabilistic approach decomposes conflicts into statistical learning tasks.
result Effective collision warnings across diverse datasets and environments.
Paper resolves apparent conflict between group and individual fairness.
problem Apparent conflict between group and individual fairness in machine learning.
method Theoretical discussions from fair machine learning, political, and legal philosophy.
result Individual and group fairness are not fundamentally in conflict.
The study extends Tutte's conflict graph concept to nonplanar graphs.
problem Understanding the structure of nonplanar graphs through conflict graphs.
method Defining a signed conflict graph for maximally planar subgraphs and analyzing their balance.
result For graphs with a flat embedding, every maximal planar subgraph has unbalanced conflict graphs if and only if the graph is intrinsically linked.
In industrial environments, an increasing amount of wireless devices are used, which utilize license-free bands. As a consequence of these mutual interferences of wireless systems might decrease the state of coexistence. Therefore, a central coexistence management system is needed, which allocates conflict-free resourc…
Proposes a multi-modal attention network for better stock price prediction.
problem Predicting future stock movements using historical records and social media.
method Extracts semantic information from social media, estimates credibility, and integrates with numeric features.
result Significantly improved prediction accuracy and trading profits compared to previous methods.
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
problem Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
method Analytical framework for tail dependence, Copula-CoVaR method, ARMA-GARCH-skewed Student-t model.
result The outbreak of the conflict intensified risks in the wheat market the most and showed significant asymmetries in extreme risk spillovers.
Automatic conflict detection has grown in relevance with the advent of body-worn technology, but existing metrics such as turn-taking and overlap are poor indicators of conflict in police-public interactions. Moreover, standard techniques to compute them fall short when applied to such diversified and noisy contexts. W…
Model predicts increased social unrest during COVID-19 using social media data.
problem Detecting rising conflict potential in societies during pandemics.
method Neural implicit motive pattern recognition from social media texts.
result Significant increase in conflict indicators during the pandemic.
Proposes a new framework for uncertainty-aware LLM post-training.
problem Heterogeneous, conflicting data in large language models.
method α-Rényi variational framework for learning distributions over post-training parameters.
result Enables training examples to be softly routed across ensemble members, promoting model specialisation and providing uncertainty estimates.
In this paper, we propose a test, called Flagged-1-Bit (F1B) test, to study the intrinsic capability of recurrent neural networks in sequence learning. Four different recurrent network models are studied both analytically and experimentally using this test. Our results suggest that in general there exists a conflict be…
This paper tackles multilingual speech processing by optimizing conflicting objectives hierarchically.
problem Training models for multilingual, multi-task speech processing is hampered by conflicting objectives.
method Investigates three multi-objective MSP formulations and introduces a lightweight layer-selection mechanism.
result A bi-level recipe outperforms standard flat optimization in state-of-the-art MSP models.
ASGN uses active semi-supervised learning to predict molecular properties efficiently.
problem Predicting molecular properties with scarce labeled data and high computational cost.
method ASGN combines a teacher-student framework with active learning to handle joint representation and property learning.
result ASGN achieves remarkable performance in property prediction on public datasets.
Paper proposes active learning for mining conflict dynamics from textual data.
problem Lack of detailed information on conflict dynamics in existing datasets.
method Active learning with a large, encoder-only language model.
result Performance similar to human coding with reduced human annotation.
Armed conflict has led to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) - individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet prediction of when large fluxes of IDPs will cross into an area remains a major challen…
The study analyzes and benchmarks graph conformal prediction methods.
problem Uncertainty quantification in graph node classification.
method Analysis and scaling of existing graph conformal prediction methods.
result Justified recommendations for future graph conformal prediction research.
We first pursue the study of how hierarchy provides a well-adapted tool for the analysis of change. Then, using a time sequence-constrained hierarchical clustering, we develop the practical aspects of a new approach to wavelet regression. This provides a new way to link hierarchical relationships in a multivariate time…
We investigate the structure of global inter-firm linkages using a dataset that contains information on business partners for about 400,000 firms worldwide, including all the firms listed on the major stock exchanges. Among the firms, we examine three networks, which are based on customer-supplier, licensee-licensor, a…
We present CYCLADES, a general framework for parallelizing stochastic optimization algorithms in a shared memory setting. CYCLADES is asynchronous during shared model updates, and requires no memory locking mechanisms, similar to HOGWILD!-type algorithms. Unlike HOGWILD!, CYCLADES introduces no conflicts during the par…
Study examines grain futures connectedness during Russia-Ukraine conflict.
problem Quantile return connectedness of grain futures markets during geopolitical instability.
method Dynamic quantile VAR combined with frequency-domain decomposition.
result Heterogeneous spillovers across quantiles, with strong transmitters and persistent receivers.
Many post-disaster and -conflict regions do not have sufficient data on their transportation infrastructure assets, hindering both mobility and reconstruction. In particular, as the number of aging and deteriorating bridges increase, it is necessary to quantify their load characteristics in order to inform maintenance …
Investor attention predicts global equity market volatility during Ukraine invasion.
problem Predicting global equity market volatility during geopolitical events.
method Event-specific attention indices based on Google Trends, analyzed across 51 global equity markets.
result Investor attention significantly predicts volatility in countries with higher economic openness to Russia and closer to it.
Conflict sets are loci of intersecting wavefronts emanating from l different surfaces. We show that generically conflict sets are Legendrian: locally they admit the structure of wavefronts. Simple stable singularities for this problem in Rn occur when 0≤n−l≤4. Other related sets, such as kite curves a…
A reject option improves partial-label learning's accuracy.
problem Ambiguously labeled data in real-world applications.
method Risk-consistent nearest-neighbor algorithm with a reject option.
result Our method provides the best trade-off between non-rejected predictions' number and accuracy.
New algorithm improves group fairness in social classification problems by exploiting performativity.
problem Inequities in social classification problems due to performativity.
method Develops algorithmic fairness practices that leverage performativity to achieve stronger group fairness guarantees.
result Achieves stronger group fairness guarantees compared to non-performative settings.
Researchers develop a neural network that learns like humans, overcoming forgetting and structure issues.
problem Catastrophic forgetting and structure limitations in neural networks.
method Memory playback strategy and dynamic structure extension using conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE).
result The method effectively prevents forgetting and allows for dynamic network growth.
The study analyzes implicit biases in neural networks using backward error analysis.
problem Analyzing implicit biases in multitask and continual learning settings.
method Backward error analysis to compute implicit training biases, deriving modified losses with three terms.
result The conflict term, measuring gradient alignment, is a new quantity in continual learning.
A 2-complex requires at least 12 colours to avoid edge conflicts.
problem Generalizing the Four Colour Theorem to three dimensions.
method Examined 2-complexes embedded in 3-manifolds, proving necessity and sufficiency of 12 colours.
result 12 colours are both necessary and sufficient for 2-complexes in 3-manifolds.
We study the problem of privacy-preserving machine learning (PPML) for ensemble methods, focusing our effort on random forests. In collaborative analysis, PPML attempts to solve the conflict between the need for data sharing and privacy. This is especially important in privacy sensitive applications such as learning pr…
A DL model predicts dynamic uncertain opinions in network data.
problem Predicting uncertain opinions in real-world dynamic network data.
method Integrates Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and robust statistics.
result Outperforms existing methods in predicting dynamic, uncertain opinions.
The study analyzes the conflict between group fairness and individual fairness in machine learning.
problem The conflict between group fairness (optimal statistical parity) and individual fairness in machine learning.
method Established sufficient conditions for the compatibility between optimal statistical parity and individual fairness requirements.
result Identified regions along the Pareto frontier that satisfy individual fairness requirements.
Study analyzes crude oil futures markets using visibility graphs to understand their structure and dynamics.
problem Understanding the structure and dynamics of crude oil futures markets during global challenges.
method Visibility graph analysis of daily and high-frequency data.
result Crude oil futures markets exhibit small-world properties and assortative mixing, with unique sensitivities to global disruptions.
Time inconsistency leads to intra-personal conflict and reconciliation strategies.
problem Time inconsistency in dynamic choice problems.
method Rigorous treatment of intra-personal equilibrium in continuous-time settings.
result A new approach to understanding and reconciling intra-personal conflicts.
New algorithm balances spatial data approximation and prediction accuracy.
problem Lack of methods considering spatial correlation and downstream modeling in dimension reduction.
method Formalizes approximation and modeling utility as metrics, proposes a balanced algorithm.
result Optimal trade-off between approximation accuracy and downstream modeling utility.
MAMBA learns policies competitive with multiple conflicting oracles.
problem Learning policies from multiple conflicting oracles in reinforcement learning.
method MAMBA uses a gradient estimator in the style of GAE to optimize policies, leveraging demonstrations from multiple weak oracles.
result MAMBA outperforms the state-of-the-art in learning policies competitive with multiple conflicting oracles.
Discrete Flow Maps bypass sequential prediction limits for parallel text generation.
problem Sequential autoregressive prediction limits large language model speed.
method Flow Maps compress generative trajectories into single-step mappings.
result Discrete Flow Maps surpass previous state-of-the-art results in discrete flow modeling.
Framework uses dropout to efficiently explore Rashomon set for multiplicity estimation.
problem Efficiently measuring and mitigating conflicting model outputs in classification tasks.
method Dropout-based exploration of Rashomon set for multiplicity estimation.
result Framework outperforms baselines in multiplicity metric estimation with significant runtime speedup.
Paper relaxes set-valued prediction in hierarchical classification by considering representation complexity.
problem Uncertainty in class labels in hierarchical multi-class classification problems.
method Introduces representation complexity for predicted sets, proposes three methods for inference.
result Recursive tree search method is computationally more efficient.
Entity resolution seeks to merge databases as to remove duplicate entries where unique identifiers are typically unknown. We review modern blocking approaches for entity resolution, focusing on those based upon locality sensitive hashing (LSH). First, we introduce k-means locality sensitive hashing (KLSH), which is b…