FAWMF adapts weights for implicit feedback recommendation efficiently.
problem Challenges in treating unobserved data as negative in implicit feedback recommendation.
method FAWMF uses a variational auto-encoder with a parameterized neural network to adaptively assign personalized data confidence weights, and fBGD for efficient learning.
result FAWMF and fBGD outperform existing methods in real-world datasets.
We provide a pointwise confidence bound for non-linear least-squares with fixed design.
problem Confidence estimation in non-linear ℓ2-regularized least squares. method Pointwise confidence bound for local minimizers, using weighted norm involving inverse-Hessian.
result The proposed confidence bound scales with the test input's similarity to the training data.
SCS identifies a range of plausible equally weighted portfolios, quantifying selection uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in selecting the best equally weighted portfolio subset.
method Introduces Selection Confidence Set (SCS) for EWPs, covering plausible portfolios with high probability.
result SCS quantifies selection uncertainty and covers the unknown optimal selection with high probability.
We present a confidence-based single-layer feed-forward learning algorithm SPIRAL (Spike Regularized Adaptive Learning) relying on an encoding of activation spikes. We adaptively update a weight vector relying on confidence estimates and activation offsets relative to previous activity. We regularize updates proportion…
Meta-learned confidence improves few-shot learning accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in few-shot learning with unreliable model confidence.
method Meta-learning confidence weights for query samples to improve transductive inference performance.
result Meta-learned confidence leads to new state-of-the-art results on benchmark datasets.
The paper develops approximations for Pearson's chi-square statistic and applies them to confidence intervals.
problem Finding confidence intervals for strictly convex functions of discrete distribution weights.
method Non-asymptotic local normal approximation for multinomial probabilities, deriving bounds and coupling inequalities.
result Developed methods to find confidence intervals for negative entropy of discrete distributions.
Kernel balancing weights are generalized as KRRR, providing better confidence intervals for treatment effects.
problem Lack of generalization error, correct feature specification, and limited to average effects.
method Interpreting kernel balancing weights as KRRR, relaxing feature specification, and extending Gaussian approximation.
result KRRR provides strong generalization properties and justifies confidence sets for causal functions.
Spatially weighted conformal prediction improves uncertainty quantification in house price models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in automated valuation models with spatial dependencies.
method Survey and demonstration of various spatially weighted approaches to adjust conformal prediction confidence sets.
result Spatially weighted CP makes confidence sets more consistently calibrated across geographical regions.
A new method for evaluating and selecting policies in contextual bandits improves confidence intervals and policy quality.
problem Evaluating and selecting policies in contextual bandits with logged data.
method Self-normalized Importance Weighting (SN) estimator with Efron-Stein tail inequality and multiplicative bias control.
result The method provides tighter confidence intervals and better policy selection compared to competitors.
Novel method for time-series prediction with tighter confidence intervals.
problem Improving prediction intervals for time-series data.
method Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI) using adaptive weights.
result KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals with guaranteed coverage.
Many problems that appear in biomedical decision making, such as diagnosing disease and predicting response to treatment, can be expressed as binary classification problems. The costs of false positives and false negatives vary across application domains and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves provide a visu…
RLFA estimates misstated monetary fraction with weighted sampling without replacement.
problem Estimating misstated monetary fraction with given accuracy and confidence.
method Developed new confidence sequences for weighted average of unknown values using randomized weighted sampling and side information.
result Adaptive methods improve accuracy of estimates based on side information's predictive power.
Imitation learning (IL) aims to learn an optimal policy from demonstrations. However, such demonstrations are often imperfect since collecting optimal ones is costly. To effectively learn from imperfect demonstrations, we propose a novel approach that utilizes confidence scores, which describe the quality of demonstrat…
A modification of the confidence screening mechanism based on adaptive weighing of every training instance at each cascade level of the Deep Forest is proposed. The idea underlying the modification is very simple and stems from the confidence screening mechanism idea proposed by Pang et al. to simplify the Deep Forest …
New method reduces confidence interval sizes for causal inference.
problem Inaccurate propensity scores and extreme scores cause large confidence intervals.
method Data-dependent Coarse IPW (CIPW) estimators.
result Robust CIPW estimators reduce confidence interval sizes to ε+1/√n.
A new concept of confidence in learning is defined and analyzed.
problem Understanding and quantifying trust in learning processes.
method Formal axioms, continuum measures, vector fields, loss functions.
result Confidence can be represented and optimized in learning.
Study improves fraud detection in e-commerce with a stacked model combining CNNs, GNNs, and confidence gating.
problem Detecting credit card fraud in online transactions.
method Stacking approach with attention and confidence-driven layers, using DOWA and IOWA operators.
result The method achieves high accuracy and robust generalization in CCF detection.
Calibrates network confidence for unsupervised domain adaptation.
problem Calibrating a model trained on a source domain to a target domain without labeled data.
method Estimates network accuracy on the target domain and calibrates prediction confidence directly in the target domain.
result Significantly outperforms existing methods across standard datasets.
In this paper, we propose a new method called ProfWeight for transferring information from a pre-trained deep neural network that has a high test accuracy to a simpler interpretable model or a very shallow network of low complexity and a priori low test accuracy. We are motivated by applications in interpretability and…
This paper rethinks confidence calibration under covariate shifts.
problem Calibration methods struggle with covariate shifts and unstable importance weighting.
method Derives Expectation consistency condition and proposes Expectation consistency loss (ECL).
result ECL loss is compatible with various types of calibration and has the same sample complexity as ECE.
The reliable measurement of confidence in classifiers' predictions is very important for many applications and is, therefore, an important part of classifier design. Yet, although deep learning has received tremendous attention in recent years, not much progress has been made in quantifying the prediction confidence of…
In this paper, the method UCB-RS, which resorts to recommendation system (RS) for enhancing the upper-confidence bound algorithm UCB, is presented. The proposed method is used for dealing with non-stationary and large-state spaces multi-armed bandit problems. The proposed method has been targeted to the problem of the …
Often domain adaptation is performed using a discriminator (domain classifier) to learn domain-invariant feature representations so that a classifier trained on labeled source data will generalize well to unlabeled target data. A line of research stemming from semi-supervised learning uses pseudo labeling to directly g…
Proposes a weighted conformal approach for cluster label uncertainty.
problem Cluster label uncertainty in unlabeled data.
method Develops a conformal inference algorithm to correct label mismatch.
result Improves confidence set size in nonlinear and high-dimensional clustering.
InfoSFT improves LLMs by focusing on informative, medium-confidence tokens.
problem Overfitting to unlikely samples and degradation of prior capabilities in SFT.
method InfoSFT uses a principled weighting scheme to concentrate learning signals on medium-confidence tokens.
result InfoSFT improves generalization and preserves pre-existing capabilities over vanilla SFT and likelihood-weighted baselines.
Develops anytime-valid stopping rules for SGD based on observed trajectory.
problem Stopping stochastic gradient descent (SGD) based on observed trajectory.
method Develops anytime-valid confidence sequences for stochastic gradient methods.
result Statistically valid, time-uniform stopping rules for SGD across convex and nonconvex settings.
This paper improves lottery ticketing by calibrating network confidence.
problem Uncalibrated confidence in lottery tickets leads to overconfidence and poor performance.
method The paper introduces various calibration strategies and explores their impact on lottery tickets.
result Calibration mechanisms consistently improve lottery ticket performance, even under distribution shifts.
In this paper we consider the problem of inference on a class of sets describing a collection of admissible models as solutions to a single smooth inequality. Classical and recent examples include, among others, the Hansen-Jagannathan (HJ) sets of admissible stochastic discount factors, Markowitz-Fama (MF) sets of mean…
We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence of a prediction in deep neural networks through stochastic inferences. We interpret stochastic regularization using a Bayesian model, and analyze the relation between predictive uncertainty of networks and variance of the prediction scores obtained by …
New metrics CWSA and CWSA+ improve model evaluation under confidence thresholds.
problem Lack of metrics capturing model reliability under confidence thresholds.
method Introducing CWSA and CWSA+ metrics that reward confident accuracy and penalize overconfident mistakes.
result CWSA and CWSA+ outperform classical metrics in trust-sensitive tests.
Distributed statistical learning problems arise commonly when dealing with large datasets. In this setup, datasets are partitioned over machines, which compute locally, and communicate short messages. Communication is often the bottleneck. In this paper, we study one-step and iterative weighted parameter averaging in s…
LaLoRA prevents forgetting in LoRA fine-tuning.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in fine-tuned models.
method LaLoRA applies Laplace approximation to LoRA weights for regularization.
result Improved learning-forgetting trade-off with controllable regularization strength.
Tree-Query uses LLMs to discover causal relationships in a transparent, interpretable manner.
problem Error propagation in classical causal discovery methods and opaque, confidence-free behavior of recent LLM-based causal oracles.
method Tree-Query is a tree-structured, multi-expert LLM framework that reduces causal discovery to queries about backdoor paths and dependencies.
result Tree-Query provides interpretable judgments with robustness-aware confidence scores and improves structural metrics over LLM baselines.
New method provides reliable high-confidence prediction intervals for high-impact events.
problem High-impact events require very high confidence prediction intervals, but classical methods provide uninformative intervals.
method Bridge extreme value statistics and conformal prediction to provide reliable and informative prediction intervals.
result Provides reliable and informative prediction intervals with high-confidence coverage.
Proposes a method to compute valid lower confidence bounds for multiple models selected based on their performance.
problem Model selection and evaluation in machine learning.
method Interprets model selection as a simultaneous inference problem, uses bootstrap tilting and maxT-type multiplicity correction.
result Yields valid lower confidence bounds that are at least as good as standard approaches and reliably reach nominal coverage probability.
Algorithm identifies best arm with biased proxy and selective ground truth audits.
problem Fixed-confidence best-arm identification with biased proxy and selective ground truth.
method Propensity-weighted estimator and adaptive auditing algorithm.
result Plug-in Neyman rule achieves near-oracle audit efficiency.
Extend CPS to non-exchangeable settings with observation-specific permutation weights
problem Calibrated predictive bands under distributional shifts
method Encoding distributional shifts through observation-specific permutation weights
result Shift-aware predictive systems remain valid
This paper improves uncertainty quantification in ELM models.
problem Uncertainty in ELM predictions due to data assumptions and randomness.
method Analytical derivations and variance estimates under various conditions.
result Improved understanding and estimation of ELM variability.
Efficient inference method for adaptive experiments with tighter confidence sequences.
problem Efficient inference of Average Treatment Effect in a changing policy sequential experiment.
method Semiparametric efficient inference using Adaptive Augmented Inverse-Probability Weighted estimator and asymptotic confidence sequences.
result Derives tighter confidence sequences for adaptive experiments under data-dependent stopping times.
Specialists outperform generalists in ensemble classification.
problem Determining the accuracy of an ensemble of classifiers when individual classifier accuracies are known.
method Proved upper and lower bounds on ensemble accuracy, constructed specialist and generalist classifiers.
result Upper and lower bounds on ensemble accuracy, practical implications for classifier construction.
New methods for estimating causal effects with limited overlap, using Stable Probability Weighting.
problem Estimating causal effects with limited overlap in multivalued treatments.
method Stable Probability Weighting (SPW) and Finite-Sample Stable Probability Weighting (FPW) methods.
result SPW and FPW provide practical solutions for estimating and inferring causal effects with limited overlap.
EC method calibrates neural networks by matching average confidence to correct label proportion.
problem Overoptimism in neural network prediction confidence.
method Expectation consistency (EC) post-training rescaling of weights.
result EC achieves similar calibration performance to temperature scaling (TS) but is based on a principled Bayesian principle.
Paper proposes an active learning method to improve remote sensing object detection with less labeled data.
problem High labor and time costs in annotating remote sensing images for CNN object detectors.
method Uncertainty-based active learning that selects images with more information for annotation.
result Detector achieves high performance with a fraction of the training images.
ConfHit provides valid guarantees for generative models without oracle access.
problem Reliable guarantees for novel candidate generation in generative models.
method Formalizes certification and refinement of generated sets, leveraging weighted exchangeability and density-ratio weighted conformal p-values.
result Consistently delivers valid coverage guarantees and compact certified sets across various generative tasks.
The contour maps of the error of historical resp. parametric estimates for large random portfolios optimized under the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) are constructed. Similar maps for the sensitivity of the portfolio weights to small changes in the returns as well as the VaR of the ES-optimized portfolio are also…
PLD distills knowledge using choice-theoretic Plackett-Luce model.
problem Model compression and knowledge transfer between large and small networks.
method PLD uses a weighted list-wise ranking loss based on the Plackett-Luce model.
result PLD achieves consistent gains across diverse architectures and distillation methods.
Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials. Inferential challenges are exacerbated when our parameter of interest differs from the pa…
In this work, we propose data augmentation methods for embeddings from pre-trained deep learning models that take a weighted combination of a pair of input embeddings, as inspired by Mixup, and combine such augmentation with extra label softening. These methods are shown to significantly increase classification accurac…