A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We consider the setting of linear regression in high dimension. We focus on the problem of constructing adaptive and honest confidence sets for the sparse parameter θ, i.e. we want to construct a confidence set for theta that contains theta with high probability, and that is as small as possible. The l_2 diameter of a …
The unified approach of Feldman and Cousins allows for exact statistical inference of small signals that commonly arise in high energy physics. It has gained widespread use, for instance, in measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters in long-baseline experiments. However, the approach relies on the Neyman construc…
The paper develops methods for constructing confidence regions for regression functions in binary classification.
problem Building distribution-free confidence regions for regression functions in binary classification.
method Resampling test and empirical risk minimization approach for model classes with finite pseudo-dimensions and inverse Lipschitz parameterizations.
result Strong uniform consistency and exponential probably approximately correct bounds on the L2 sizes of the regions.
Study optimal policy regret in partially observable Markov games with adaptive opponents.
problem Optimal sequential decision-making in partially observable environments against strategic, adaptive opponents.
method An epoch-based optimistic maximum-likelihood algorithm that selects one policy per epoch using confidence sets built cumulatively from past data.
result Achieves ildeO(T) policy regret for fixed problem parameters, with explicit dependence on horizon, adversary memory, confidence radius, and aggregate Eluder dimension.
New protocol makes neural MI estimators reliable in high-dimensional data.
problem Accurate estimation of mutual information in high-dimensional, undersampled data.
method Developed a practical protocol for neural MI estimators, incorporating statistical consistency checks, bias correction, and confidence intervals.
result Neural MI estimators can be made reliable when dependencies admit a low-dimensional latent representation.
Hypothesis testing in the linear regression model is a fundamental statistical problem. We consider linear regression in the high-dimensional regime where the number of parameters exceeds the number of samples (p>n). In order to make informative inference, we assume that the model is approximately sparse, that is th…
We consider the problem of providing nonparametric confidence guarantees for undirected graphs under weak assumptions. In particular, we do not assume sparsity, incoherence or Normality. We allow the dimension D to increase with the sample size n. First, we prove lower bounds that show that if we want accurate infe…
Confidence intervals are a popular way to visualize and analyze data distributions. Unlike p-values, they can convey information both about statistical significance as well as effect size. However, very little work exists on applying confidence intervals to multivariate data. In this paper we define confidence interval…
The paper investigates how dataset quality and heterogeneity affect model confidence in machine learning.
problem Understanding how dataset quality and heterogeneity impact model confidence in machine learning.
method The study uses theoretical explanations and experimental demonstrations to investigate the effects of dataset size, label noise, and class heterogeneity on model confidence.
result Label noise reduces model confidence, while reduced dataset size increases it, and class heterogeneity leads to inconsistent confidence across classes.
Positive-confidence (Pconf) classification [Ishida et al., 2018] is a promising weakly-supervised learning method which trains a binary classifier only from positive data equipped with confidence. However, in practice, the confidence may be skewed by bias arising in an annotation process. The Pconf classifier cannot be…
Due to the lack of reliable market information, building financial term-structures may be associated with a significant degree of uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a new term-structure interpolation method that extends classical spline techniques by additionally allowing for quantification of uncertainty. The prop…