New algorithm learns safe policies in unknown environments.
problem Learning safe policies in unknown, potentially unsafe environments.
method C-UCRL: Upper Confidence Reinforcement Learning for constrained MDPs.
result Achieves sub-linear regret while satisfying constraints.
A new algorithm tackles submodular bandit problems with multiple constraints.
problem Addressing diversified retrieval and online learning with budget constraints.
method Non-greedy algorithm focusing on upper-confidence bounds.
result High-probability upper bound of an approximation regret matching fast offline algorithm's ratio.
CoinDICE estimates confidence intervals for unknown behavior policies in reinforcement learning.
problem Estimating value of a target policy using only behavior policy data.
method Function space embedding, generalized empirical likelihood method, Lagrangian optimization.
result Valid confidence intervals with tighter and more accurate estimates than existing methods.
Method constructs confidence regions for linear models with arbitrary predictors.
problem Constructing confidence regions for linear models with non-linear predictors.
method Mixed Integer Linear Programming for constraints.
result Empty confidence regions for hypothesis testing.
Study contextual bandits with stage-wise constraints, proving regret bounds and extending results.
problem Contextual bandits with stage-wise constraints in high probability and expectation settings.
method Upper-confidence bound algorithms for linear and non-linear reward/cost functions, extending to multiple constraints.
result Regret bounds for various settings, including non-linear reward/cost functions.
The paper improves nonparametric confidence bands for band-limited functions.
problem Constructing nonparametric simultaneous confidence bands with nonasymptotic and distribition-free guarantees.
method Based on Paley-Wiener reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, the paper relaxes assumptions, improves noise estimation, and tightens constraints.
result Enhanced confidence bands with improved efficiency and tighter constraints.
ARTEO algorithm optimizes safety-critical systems with uncertainty.
problem Decision-making under uncertainty with safety constraints in real-time optimization.
method ARTEO algorithm uses multi-armed bandits as a mathematical programming problem subject to safety constraints, learning unknown characteristics through exploration and incorporating uncertainty quantification.
result ARTEO achieves less cumulative regret with accurate and safe decisions.
Unified framework for constrained online decision-making.
problem Sequential decisions under stage-wise feasibility constraints.
method Upper counterfactual confidence bounds and generalized eluder dimension.
result Principled foundation for constrained sequential decision-making.
New algorithm reduces regret and constraint violation in adversarial CMDP learning.
problem Online learning for episodic stochastically constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs) with adversarial loss.
method Upper Confidence Primal-Dual Reinforcement Learning (UC-PDL) algorithm.
result Achieves O ~ ( L ∣ S ∣ ∣ A ∣ T ) \widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(L|\mathcal{S}|\sqrt{|\mathcal{A}|T}) O ( L ∣ S ∣ ∣ A ∣ T ) upper bounds of both regret and constraint violation. An algorithm for maximizing rewards under linear cost constraints.
problem Maximizing rewards while adhering to cost constraints in a linear bandit problem.
method Proposes an upper-confidence bound algorithm called optimistic pessimistic linear bandit (OPLB) for constrained contextual linear bandits.
result Proves an O ~ ( d T τ − c 0 ) \widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\frac{d\sqrt{T}}{τ-c_0}) O ( τ − c 0 d T ) bound on regret for the proposed algorithm. A new confidence measure improves self-training in biased data.
problem Improving self-training in biased data.
method Proposes a new confidence measure, T-similarity, based on ensemble diversity of linear classifiers.
result Empirically shows the benefit of T-similarity for pseudo-labeling policies on various datasets.
A universal method for hypothesis tests and confidence sets without regularity conditions.
problem Difficult inference in irregular statistical models.
method Modified likelihood ratio statistic (split LRT).
result Works for any parametric and some nonparametric models.
New methods for private statistical inference under local differential privacy.
problem Private statistical inference for population means with bounded observations.
method Nonparametric, nonasymptotic statistical inference using a generalized randomized response mechanism.
result Private confidence intervals and sequences for population means under LDP constraints.
A new UCB policy improves reward-cost ratio estimation in budgeted MAB.
problem Maximizing reward-cost ratio under budget constraints.
method ω-UCB policy with asymmetric confidence intervals.
result Logarithmic regret and superior performance in various settings.
Tree-Query uses LLMs to discover causal relationships in a transparent, interpretable manner.
problem Error propagation in classical causal discovery methods and opaque, confidence-free behavior of recent LLM-based causal oracles.
method Tree-Query is a tree-structured, multi-expert LLM framework that reduces causal discovery to queries about backdoor paths and dependencies.
result Tree-Query provides interpretable judgments with robustness-aware confidence scores and improves structural metrics over LLM baselines.
Due to the lack of reliable market information, building financial term-structures may be associated with a significant degree of uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a new term-structure interpolation method that extends classical spline techniques by additionally allowing for quantification of uncertainty. The prop…
This paper improves uncertainty quantification in ELM models.
problem Uncertainty in ELM predictions due to data assumptions and randomness.
method Analytical derivations and variance estimates under various conditions.
result Improved understanding and estimation of ELM variability.
New insights on active sequential prediction for mean estimation.
problem Active sequential prediction-powered mean estimation problem.
method Combining uncertainty-based suggestion with a constant probability, analyzing non-asymptotic bounds, and using no-regret learning.
result The optimal query probability is close to the constraint when using no-regret learning.
Paper certifies intersection of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial outcomes.
problem Certifying intersection of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial outcomes.
method Exploits likelihood ordering to induce halfspace constraints, enabling adaptive geometric partitioning and computable bounds on p-values.
result Efficient and provably sound algorithm for certifying intersection, disjointness, or indeterminate result.
Paper improves action selection for accurate parameter estimation in linear bandits.
problem Best action identification in stochastic linear bandits with fixed confidence constraints.
method Designs a sequential adaptive policy to estimate underlying parameter efficiently.
result The designed policy achieves the same estimation error scaling as a lower bound.
New methods for efficient exploration under unknown linear constraints in bandits.
problem Optimizing decisions under unknown linear constraints in bandit problems.
method Lagrangian relaxation, computationally efficient extensions of existing methods, constraint-adaptive stopping rule.
result LAGEX achieves asymptotically optimal sample complexity, LATS shows asymptotic optimality up to novel constants.
Develops a new method for optimizing with uncertain data.
problem Uncertainty in real-world optimization problems.
method Combines chance constraints and constraint learning for mixed-integer linear optimization.
result Data-driven solution for setting probabilistic bounds on learned constraints.
Study wSAA for contextual decisions, improving uncertainty quantification under computational constraints.
problem Uncertainty quantification limitations in wSAA for contextual stochastic optimization.
method Establish central limit theorems and asymptotic-normality-based confidence intervals for optimal costs.
result Over-optimizing can mitigate misspecification and preserve asymptotic normality, albeit at a slower convergence rate.
BAICS identifies best arm with fairness constraints on subpopulations.
problem Identify the best arm while ensuring fairness across subpopulations.
method Formulated and solved BAICS problem, analyzed complexity, designed algorithm.
result Algorithm's sample complexity matches theoretical lower bound.
Safety filter for unknown discrete-time systems with learned models and noise covariance.
problem Ensuring safety for unknown discrete-time linear systems with Gaussian noise.
method Develops a learning-based safety filter using empirical model and noise covariance, optimizing control actions to stay within safety constraints.
result Minimally modifies nominal control actions to ensure safety with high probability, tightening constraints as more data is collected.
This work investigates uncertainty quantification for black-box large language models in natural language generation.
problem Lack of trustworthiness in responses generated by black-box large language models.
method Differentiated uncertainty vs confidence, proposed and compared several confidence/uncertainty measures, applied to selective NLG.
result A simple measure for semantic dispersion can predict the quality of LLM responses.
New algorithm reduces robust optimization scale for better constraint satisfaction.
problem Finding robust solutions to optimization problems with unknown constraints.
method Empirical domain reduction to determine robustness scale.
result Our algorithm's scale is less affected by parameter dimensionality.
LinConTS improves regret and constraint violations in probabilistic linearly constrained bandits.
problem Maximizing cumulative reward under probabilistic linear constraints.
method LinConTS, a Thompson Sampling-based algorithm for bandits with linear constraints.
result LinConTS achieves O(log T) regret and constraint violations for suboptimal arms.
δ-CLUE generates diverse explanations for model uncertainty.
problem Lack of constraints in generating explanations for uncertainty estimates.
method Augmenting CLUE approach to provide a set of plausible explanations.
result Returns a set of diverse inputs that yield confident predictions.
The paper develops adaptive confidence intervals for Efron's Gaussian two-groups model with unknown contamination.
problem Developing robust uncertainty quantification for Efron's Gaussian two-groups model with unknown contamination fraction.
method The approach involves Fourier-based certification procedures to find minimax-optimal adaptive confidence intervals.
result The minimax-optimal length of adaptive confidence intervals is polynomially worse than when contamination fraction is known.
A method for efficient statistical inference from online algorithms.
problem Computational constraints in online algorithms make traditional variance estimation difficult.
method HulC method that wraps around online algorithms to produce valid confidence regions.
result The HulC method produces asymptotically valid confidence regions for online algorithms.
Paper tackles SMPC for linear systems with unknown noise distribution.
problem Stochastic MPC for linear systems with chance state constraints and unknown noise distribution.
method Reformulate chance constraints, design robust benchmark SMPC, and develop adaptive SMPC with online noise statistics learning.
result Adaptive SMPC guarantees time-uniform satisfaction of unknown reformulated state constraints with high probability.
Mixed likelihood GPs improve model performance in human-in-the-loop experiments.
problem Lack of auxiliary information in traditional GPs for human responses.
method Propose mixed likelihood variational GPs to leverage auxiliary information.
result Modeling performance improvements across diverse applications.
New framework improves reliability of learned representations by modeling uncertainty and structural constraints.
problem Uncertainty in learned representations treated as deterministic, leading to unreliable models.
method Proposes a principled framework for reliable representation learning with uncertainty-aware regularization and structural constraints.
result Improves stability, calibration, and robustness of learned representations.
Improved algorithm for online planning with tighter bounds.
problem Online planning in Markov Decision Processes with open-loop policies and budget constraints.
method Proposed KLOLOP algorithm with tighter upper-confidence bounds and efficient implementation.
result KLOLOP leads to better practical performances with sample complexity bound retained.
A decentralized algorithm minimizes cumulative regret in stochastic linear bandits with safety constraints.
problem Efficiently solving a linear bandit-optimization problem over a network of agents with safety constraints.
method DLUCB: a fully decentralized algorithm that minimizes cumulative regret through UCB strategy and consensus procedure.
result Near-optimal regret performance of O ( d log N T N T ) \mathcal{O}(d\log{NT}\sqrt{NT}) O ( d log N T N T ) with O ( d N 2 ) \mathcal{O}(dN^2) O ( d N 2 ) communication rate. The paper tackles identifying Pareto Set with constraints using bandit feedback.
problem Identifying the Pareto Set under feasibility constraints in a multivariate bandit setting.
method Fixed-confidence identification algorithm that outperforms existing methods.
result The sample complexity of the proposed algorithm is near-optimal.
Study on policy testing in MDPs with lower bounds and new algorithm.
problem Deciding if policy value exceeds a threshold with limited samples.
method Derived lower bound, proposed new algorithm, reformulated problem, used policy optimization in reversed MDP.
result New algorithm outperforms existing methods in policy testing.
Proposes a recursive MPC scheme with probabilistic safety guarantees for uncertain dynamic systems.
problem Probabilistic safety guarantees for MPC in dynamic environments with unknown stochastic agents.
method Uses conformal prediction to derive high-confidence prediction regions and gradually relax safety constraints online.
result Ensures recursive feasibility of MPC schemes by relaxing safety constraints over time.
Safe learning of stochastic dynamics with safety constraints.
problem Learning controlled stochastic dynamics with safety constraints.
method Iterative expansion of a safe control set using kernel-based confidence bounds.
result The method ensures safe exploration and efficient estimation of system dynamics.
New policy minimizes error in finding best arm with privacy constraints.
problem Best arm identification with differential privacy constraints.
method Maximum absolute determinants principle for ε \varepsilon ε -DP policy. result Error probability decays exponentially in T T T with matching exponents. Study on collaboration vs. independent data collection in sensor networks.
problem Impact of sensor correlation on data collection strategies.
method Analysis of Fisher information and Cramer-Rao bound.
result Optimal strategy involves transferring non-immediate information for improved estimation.
In this paper, we develop a theory of market crashes resulting from a deleveraging shock. We consider two representative investors in a market holding different opinions about the public available information. The deleveraging shock forces the high confidence investors to liquidate their risky assets to pay back their …
Scientific practice typically involves repeatedly studying a system, each time trying to unravel a different perspective. In each study, the scientist may take measurements under different experimental conditions (interventions, manipulations, perturbations) and measure different sets of quantities (variables). The res…
We design new algorithms for the combinatorial pure exploration problem in the multi-arm bandit framework. In this problem, we are given K K K distributions and a collection of subsets V ⊂ 2 [ K ] \mathcal{V} \subset 2^{[K]} V ⊂ 2 [ K ] of these distributions, and we would like to find the subset v ∈ V v \in \mathcal{V} v ∈ V that has largest mean, whi…
ConfHit provides valid guarantees for generative models without oracle access.
problem Reliable guarantees for novel candidate generation in generative models.
method Formalizes certification and refinement of generated sets, leveraging weighted exchangeability and density-ratio weighted conformal p-values.
result Consistently delivers valid coverage guarantees and compact certified sets across various generative tasks.
Paper tackles efficient BAI in graph-smooth bandits.
problem Best arm identification with graph smoothness constraint.
method Gradient ascent algorithm for sample complexity.
result Asymptotically optimal strategy for BAI.
We propose a novel technique for analyzing adaptive sampling called the {\em Simulator}. Our approach differs from the existing methods by considering not how much information could be gathered by any fixed sampling strategy, but how difficult it is to distinguish a good sampling strategy from a bad one given the limit…