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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,878 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for confidence collapse

Model shows how past consumption affects household confidence, leading to varied economic outcomes.

problem Exploring how past consumption impacts current confidence and economic activity in a multi-household model.
method Developed a DSGE model where past consumption influences individual household confidence and consumption propensity.
result The model demonstrates a range of economic outcomes including high output with no crises, high output with increased volatility, and alternation of high and low output states.

Enhances neural architecture search efficiency and prevents performance collapse.

problem Improving memory efficiency and preventing performance collapse in neural architecture search.
method Employing continuous relaxation strategy and gradient-based optimization for over-parameterized BCNN construction, introducing Confident Learning Rate and partial channel connections.
result NAS-v2 delivers state-of-the-art search efficiency on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet.

Trust is a collective, self-fulfilling phenomenon that suggests analogies with phase transitions. We introduce a stylized model for the build-up and collapse of trust in networks, which generically displays a first order transition. The basic assumption of our model is that whereas trust begets trust, panic also begets…

2014-09-22abs ↗pdf ↗

LLMs generate answers under incomplete context, and their uncertainty should scale with missing information.

problem Evaluating the quality of LLM answers under incomplete context.
method A controlled framework with varying context availability, and two uncertainty measures (sampling-based confidence and response entropy) evaluated on SQuAD.
result Response entropy increases with context removal and explains more variance in accuracy than confidence, suggesting it is a more responsive uncertainty measure.

Bayesian Neural Networks show unexpected collapse of epistemic uncertainty with large models and little data.

problem Unexpected collapse of epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Experiments with varying model size and training data size.
result Epistemic uncertainty collapses in the presence of large models and sometimes little data.

This paper improves test-time adaptation for distribution shifts using confidence maximization and input transformation.

problem Improving deep networks' performance on data shifted from the training distribution.
method Proposes a novel loss function combining confidence maximization and batch-wise entropy maximization with an input transformation module.
result Significantly improves robustness of pretrained networks to corruptions on benchmarks like ImageNet-C.

Framework disentangles deep feature uncertainty for efficient inference.

problem Inference-time uncertainty estimation for reliable decision-making.
method Uncertainty-Guided Inference-Time Selection framework.
result Significantly tighter prediction intervals and 60% compute reduction.

Bayesian deep learning faces posterior collapse due to likelihood vs. prior competition.

problem Posterior collapse in Bayesian deep learning models.
method Identified competition between likelihood and prior regularization in a linear latent variable model.
result Posterior collapse is related to neural and dimensional collapse, suggesting a broader learning issue.

Study on Neural Collapse limits in deep learning.

problem Understanding the limits of Neural Collapse in deep learning.
method Investigated Neural Collapse in the context of generalization and feature learning, refining conjectures and conducting experiments.
result Neural Collapse primarily occurs on the train set and not on the test set, suggesting it is an optimization phenomenon with unclear connections to generalization.

Efficiently evaluate generative models at the prompt level using tensor factorization.

problem Fine-grained evaluations of generative models are costly and often misaligned with human judgment.
method Tensor factorization model that merges cheap autorater data with a small set of human gold-standard labels.
result The method provides accurate and tight confidence intervals for model performance.

Mathematical analysis shows annealing prevents mode collapse in Gaussian mixtures.

problem Mode collapse in variational inference for multimodal distributions.
method Analyzed annealing strategies for Gaussian mixtures, derived formulas, and tested on neural networks.
result Appropriately chosen annealing schemes can robustly prevent mode collapse.

New method controls posterior collapse in VAEs without network architecture constraints.

problem Posterior collapse in VAEs reduces diversity of generated samples.
method Introduces Latent Reconstruction (LR) loss to control posterior collapse.
result Controls posterior collapse on various datasets without architectural constraints.

Proposes new loss functions for better handling bimodal predictive uncertainty.

problem Bimodal predictive uncertainty in machine learning models.
method Family of distribution-aware loss functions integrating normalized RMSE with Wasserstein and Cramér distances.
result Proposed loss functions reduce predictive uncertainty estimation error by 45% on complex bimodal datasets.

Collapsibility is a combinatorial strengthening of contractibility. We relate this property to metric geometry by proving the collapsibility of any complex that is CAT(0) with a metric for which all vertex stars are convex. This strengthens and generalizes a result by Crowley. Further consequences of our work are: (1) …

2011-07-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Prove that collapsing CSC metrics can be perturbed to invariant collapsing CSC metrics.

problem Prove that collapsing constant scalar curvature metrics can be perturbed to invariant collapsing constant scalar curvature metrics.
method Prove that a sequence of constant scalar curvature metrics which is collapsing with bounded curvature to a manifold can be perturbed to a sequence of invariant collapsing constant scalar curvature metrics.
result Prove that a sequence of constant scalar curvature metrics which is collapsing with bounded curvature to a manifold can be perturbed to a sequence of invariant collapsing constant scalar curvature metrics.

We will simplify the earlier proofs of Perelman's collapsing theorem of 3-manifolds given by Shioya-Yamaguchi and Morgan-Tian. Among other things, we use Perelman's semi-convex analysis of distance functions to construct the desired local Seifert fibration structure on collapsed 3-manifolds. The verification of Perelma…

2009-08-22abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce the theory of strong homotopy types of simplicial complexes. Similarly to classical simple homotopy theory, the strong homotopy types can be described by elementary moves. An elementary move in this setting is called a strong collapse and it is a particular kind of simplicial collapse. The advantage of usi…

2009-07-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep nets exhibit 'Neural Collapse' during training's final phase, simplifying decision-making.

problem Understanding and optimizing deep learning training phases.
method Direct measurements on three deepnet architectures across seven datasets.
result Deep nets exhibit 'Neural Collapse' during training's final phase, simplifying decision-making.

Lower Ricci curvature bound prevents first Betti number from dropping more than dimension in collapsing manifolds.

problem Understanding how the first Betti number behaves under manifold collapse with Ricci curvature bounds.
method Analyzing sequences of Riemannian manifolds with lower Ricci curvature bounds.
result The first Betti number cannot drop more than the dimension in collapsing manifolds.

Study tackles criterion collapse in learning criteria, showing conditions for loss minimization.

problem Criterion collapse in optimization, focusing on error probability minimizers.
method Analyzes various learning criteria, including DRO, OCE risks, and non-monotonic criteria.
result Non-monotonic criteria can avoid collapse, while monotonic ones cannot.

This is an expositiry article on collapsing theory in Riemannian geometry written for the Modern Encyclopedia of Mathematical Physics (MEMPhys). We focus on describing the geometric and topological structure of collapsed/non-collapsed regions in Riemannian manifold under various curvature assumptions. Numerous applicat…

2007-01-25abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper we extend the works of Tancer and of Malgouyres and Francés, showing that (d,k)(d,k)-collapsibility is NP-complete for dk+2d\geq k+2 except (2,0)(2,0). By (d,k)(d,k)-collapsibility we mean the following problem: determine whether a given dd-dimensional simplicial complex can be collapsed to some kk-dimensional sub…

2017-03-20abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper, we study collapsed manifolds with boundary, where we assume a lower sectional curvature bound, two sides bounds on the second fundamental forms of boundaries and upper diameter bound. Our main concern is the case when inradii of manifolds converge to zero. This is a typical case of collapsing manifolds w…

2015-12-26abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper examines how skip connections prevent rank collapse in sequence models.

problem Rank collapse in sequence models, leading to reduced expressivity and training instabilities.
method Analytical and ablation studies of lambda-skip connections in SSMs.
result A sufficient condition to prevent rank collapse across various architectures.

The paper studies a relative version of non-positive immersion for 2-complex pairs and shows conditions under which a transitivity law holds.

problem The study of collapsing non-positive immersion for 2-complex pairs and its implications.
method Introduced a relative version of collapsing non-positive immersion for 2-complex pairs (L,K)(L,K) and proved a transitivity law under certain conditions.
result Under certain conditions, a transitivity law holds: If (L,K)(L,K) has relative collapsing non-positive immersion and KK has collapsing non-positive immersion, then LL has collapsing non-positive immersion.

ContraNorm prevents dimensional collapse in GNNs and Transformers.

problem Dimensional collapse in Graph Neural Networks and Transformers.
method Proposes ContraNorm, a novel normalization layer inspired by contrastive learning.
result Proves ContraNorm alleviates both complete and dimensional collapse under certain conditions.

We will simplify earlier proofs of Perelman's collapsing theorem for 3-manifolds given by Shioya-Yamaguchi and Morgan-Tian. Among other things, we use Perelman's critical point theory (e.g., multiple conic singularity theory and his fibration theory) for Alexandrov spaces to construct the desired local Seifert fibratio…

2010-03-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Polyhedra collapse to subpolyhedra if they can be continuously shrunk onto them.

problem Characterizing when a polyhedron can be continuously shrunk onto a subpolyhedron.
method Piecewise-linear free deformation retraction and metric considerations.
result A polyhedron collapses to a subpolyhedron if and only if it admits a free deformation retraction onto that subpolyhedron.

We study collapsed manifolds with Ricci bounded covering geometry i.e., Ricci curvature is bounded below and the Riemannian universal cover is non-collapsed or consists of uniform Reifenberg points. Via Ricci flows' techniques, we partially extend the nilpotent structural results of Cheeger-Fukaya-Gromov, on collapsed …

2018-08-11abs ↗pdf ↗