The conditional-mean barrier helps diagnose deterministic surrogates missing uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in deterministic surrogates for complex systems.
method Developed diagnostics to locate the conditional-mean barrier and prove its necessity for distributional objectives.
result Crossing the barrier requires a loss that scores distributions, not point predictions.
The paper examines conditions for linearity in a conditional mean estimator under vector Poisson noise.
problem Conditions for linearity of the conditional mean estimator in vector Poisson noise.
method Analyzes prior distributions and their impact on the conditional mean estimator's linearity.
result The only prior distribution that induces linearity is a product gamma distribution, and non-zero dark current parameter prevents linearity.
New learning rates for embeddings in RKHSs, even when the target is not Hilbert-Schmidt.
problem Applying conditional mean embeddings to complex ML/RL settings with infinite-dimensional RKHSs.
method Developed novel learning rates using interpolation theory for RKHSs, derived explicit adaptive rates for sample estimator.
result Achieved uniform convergence rates in the output RKHS for certain parameter regimes.
A novel k-NN method estimates conditional mean and variance efficiently.
problem Joint estimation of conditional mean and variance.
method Integrates k-NN with automated variance selection.
result Achieves fast convergence rates and improved precision.
As a crucial problem in statistics is to decide whether additional variables are needed in a regression model. We propose a new multivariate test to investigate the conditional mean independence of Y given X conditioning on some known effect Z, i.e., E(Y|X, Z) = E(Y|Z). Assuming that E(Y|Z) and Z are linearly related, …
We offer a new, rigorous approach to conditional mean embeddings without operator constraints.
problem Lack of rigorous, operator-free approach to conditional mean embeddings.
method Measure-theoretic approach to conditional mean embeddings.
result Natural regression interpretation and universal consistency of empirical estimates.
We consider conditional-mean hedging in a fractional Black-Scholes pricing model in the presence of proportional transaction costs. We develop an explicit formula for the conditional-mean hedging portfolio in terms of the recently discovered explicit conditional law of the fractional Brownian motion.
New method tests CMI using deep neural networks for high-dimensional data.
problem Testing conditional mean independence in high-dimensional settings.
method Population CMI measure and bootstrap-based testing with deep generative neural networks.
result Strong empirical performance and versatility in various scenarios.
We analyze linear factor models for asset pricing panels.
problem Characterizing cross-sectional and inter-temporal properties of returns and factors.
method Conditional means and covariances, review of Kozak and Nagel (2024) conditions.
result Low-dimensional factor portfolios can span efficient portfolios in unbalanced panels.
GAAVI offers anytime-valid tests for CMF global null and contrasts.
problem Inference on the conditional mean function for high confidence decisions.
method Asymptotic anytime-valid tests for CMF global null and contrasts.
result Achieves asymptotic type-I error guarantees, power one, and optimal sample complexity.
A new ML-based filter improves data assimilation for nonlinear systems.
problem Improving data assimilation for nonlinear systems using ensemble methods.
method Developed a machine learning-based conditional mean filter (ML-EnCMF) integrating ANN and linear functions.
result ML-EnCMF outperforms EnKF and likelihood-based EnCMF in nonlinear systems.
We consider so-called regular invertible Gaussian Volterra processes and derive a formula for their prediction laws. Examples of such processes include the fractional Brownian motions and the mixed fractional Brownian motions. As an application, we consider conditional-mean hedging under transaction costs in Black-Scho…
Study optimizes learning rates for conditional mean embedding estimates.
problem Consistency of kernel ridge regression for conditional mean embedding.
method Adaptive statistical learning rate derived for misspecified setting.
result Upper bound matches optimal O(logn/n) rates without assuming finite dimensionality. The paper calculates prices for multi-step barrier options under the Black-Scholes model.
problem Calculating prices for multi-step barrier options with varying barriers and time steps.
method Derives a general, explicit expression for option prices using the Black-Scholes model and a multi-step reflection principle.
result Derives a multi-step reflection principle that generalizes the reflection principle of Brownian motion.
Proposes a new framework for deep learning conditional mean estimation with confidence regions.
problem Lack of asymptotic properties in deep nonparametric regression models.
method Transforms deep estimation into conditional diffusion model for conditional mean estimation.
result Developed end-to-end convergence rate and asymptotic normality for conditional diffusion model.
We demonstrate effectiveness of the first-order algorithm from [Milstein, Tretyakov. Theory Prob. Appl. 47 (2002), 53-68] in application to barrier option pricing. The algorithm uses the weak Euler approximation far from barriers and a special construction motivated by linear interpolation of the price near barriers. I…
A new method uses deep learning to price barrier options.
problem Pricing barrier options with boundary conditions.
method Forward deep BSDEs with added nodes for barrier conditions.
result Can handle any barrier condition and boundary conditions.
We determine the price of digital double barrier options with an arbitrary number of barrier periods in the Black-Scholes model. This means that the barriers are active during some time intervals, but are switched off in between. As an application, we calculate the value of a structure floor for structured notes whose …
A time-dependent double-barrier option is a derivative security that delivers the terminal value φ(ST) at expiry T if neither of the continuous time-dependent barriers $b_\pm:[0,T]\to \RR_+$ have been hit during the time interval [0,T]. Using a probabilistic approach we obtain a decomposition of the barrier opti…
We discuss the pricing methodology for Bonus Certificates and Barrier Reverse-Convertible Structured Products. Pricing for a European barrier condition is straightforward for products of both types and depends on an efficient interpolation of observed market option pricing. Pricing products We discuss the pricing metho…
Probit Monotone BART estimates binary outcomes using monotonic functions.
problem Estimating conditional mean functions for binary outcomes with monotonicity constraints.
method Proposes a new BART variant that incorporates monotonicity constraints for binary outcomes.
result Allows for more precise estimation of monotonic functions in binary outcome models.
Efficient semi-analytic methods for pricing double barrier options with time-dependent parameters.
problem Pricing and calibration of double barrier options with time-dependent parameters.
method Two approaches: General Integral transform method and Heat Potential method.
result Semi-analytic techniques are more efficient for pricing double barrier options than traditional numerical methods.
A neural network derived from first principles using MaxEnt.
problem Developing a neural network from first principles.
method Derived a neural network using the principle of Maximum Entropy, with linear dimension-reducing transformations and conditional mean estimators.
result Unified theoretical justification for activation functions like sigmoid, softplus, and relu.
We provided an analytical representation of the price of a barrier option with one type of special moving barrier. We consider the case that risk free rate, dividend rate and stock volatility are time dependent. We get a pricing formula and put call parity for barrier option when the moving barrier has a special relati…
A new metric CKCE improves model calibration comparison.
problem Comparing the calibration of probabilistic models is challenging.
method CKCE based on Hilbert-Schmidt norm of conditional mean operators.
result CKCE provides more consistent and robust model calibration comparisons.
Hamiltonian method applied to floating barrier options pricing.
problem Pricing of floating barrier options.
method Hamiltonian approach in quantum mechanics applied to barrier options.
result Analytical expressions for pricing kernel and option price derived.
Neural-Kernel CME tackles scalability and expressiveness challenges in conditional distribution representation.
problem Scalability and expressiveness challenges in kernel conditional mean embeddings.
method Combines deep learning with CMEs using a neural network optimization framework.
result Achieves competitive and often superior performance in conditional density estimation and RL.
Deep learning solves barrier options with stochastic volatility.
problem Solving barrier options with stochastic volatility.
method Unsupervised deep learning neural networks trained to satisfy PDE and boundary conditions.
result Neural networks accurately price barrier options in a single framework.
New method tackles bilevel optimization with polyhedral constraints.
problem Challenges in bilevel optimization with active-set changes and expensive Hessian inversions.
method Logarithmic barrier smoothing and proxy-gradient algorithm for differentiable approximation.
result Stationarity rates of O(K−2/3) in deterministic setting and O(K−2/5) under stochastic noise. Unified pricing method for FX options with barriers.
problem Calculating the value and sensitivities of FX options with barriers.
method Unified Vanna-Volga pricing technique for single and double barrier FX options.
result Derivation of closed formulas for Delta, Vega, Vanna, and Volga.
Root's barrier is continuous and finite under certain conditions.
problem Continuity of the root barrier function.
method Analyzing Skorokhod embedding problem and properties of target measures.
result The barrier function is continuous and finite under specified conditions.
Path integral method calculates barrier option prices.
problem Barrier option pricing in finance.
method Path integral method applied to trapezoid and square potential barriers.
result Analytical expressions for option pricing derived.
This paper deals with a high-order accurate implicit finite-difference approach to the pricing of barrier options. In this way various types of barrier options are priced, including barrier options paying rebates, and options on dividend-paying-stocks. Moreover, the barriers may be monitored either continuously or disc…
Derives a general derivative identity for conditional mean in Gaussian noise.
problem Understanding conditional mean in Gaussian noise channels.
method Derives a general derivative identity for the conditional mean of X given Y=y in a Markov chain U↔X↔Y. result Provides a unifying view of conditional mean identities and derives new ones.
Conditional mean embeddings (CMEs) have proven themselves to be a powerful tool in many machine learning applications. They allow the efficient conditioning of probability distributions within the corresponding reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) by providing a linear-algebraic relation for the kernel mean embedd…
Develops a new method to compute risk-sharing allocations using Laplace transforms.
problem Complex integrals in computing conditional mean risk-sharing allocations.
method Uses Laplace-Stieltjes transforms to compute risk-sharing allocations from joint transforms.
result Provides closed-form or semi-analytic solutions for a broad class of distributions.
Research provides explicit NPV expressions for double barrier strategies.
problem Calculating expected NPVs of double barrier strategies for regular diffusions.
method Explicit expression using bivariate q-scale function with perturbation technique.
result Explicit expressions for expected NPVs are derived for certain cases.
New symplectic barriers found in ball embeddings.
problem Existence of symplectic embeddings with intersections.
method Proving obligatory intersections with symplectic planes.
result Existence of symplectic barriers in ball embeddings.
New insights into correntropy-based regression reveal robustness and unified approaches.
problem Learning robust regression functions under additive noise.
method Minimum distance estimation and conditional mean, mode, median functions.
result Unified approach to conditional mean, mode, and median functions.
The paper studies how convex surfaces shrink under mean curvature flow with a free boundary.
problem Mean curvature flow of convex surfaces with a free boundary on convex barriers.
method Introduced a new perturbation argument to establish convexity and pinching estimates.
result The flow contracts a sufficiently convex surface to a point in finite time, asymptotic to a half-sphere.
Paper applies subdiffusive dynamics to American and barrier options pricing.
problem Valuation of American and barrier options in subdiffusive financial models.
method Proposes weighted finite difference and Longstaff-Schwartz methods for valuation.
result Numerical valuation of American and barrier options demonstrated.
In order to identify important variables that are involved in making optimal treatment decision, Lu et al. (2013) proposed a penalized least squared regression framework for a fixed number of predictors, which is robust against the misspecification of the conditional mean model. Two problems arise: (i) in a world of ex…
Barrier options are one of the most widely traded exotic options on stock exchanges. In this paper, we develop a new stochastic simulation method for pricing barrier options and estimating the corresponding execution probabilities. We show that the proposed method always outperforms the standard Monte Carlo approach an…
We use Lie symmetry methods to price certain types of barrier options. Usually Lie symmetry methods cannot be used to solve the Black-Scholes equation for options because the function defining the maturity condition for an option is not smooth. However, for barrier options, this restriction can be accommodated and a sy…
Estimates mean and covariance for large, unbalanced stock returns panels.
problem Estimating mean and covariance in large, unbalanced panel data.
method Nonparametric, kernel-based joint estimator for conditional mean and covariance matrices.
result The idiosyncratic risk explains more than 75% of cross-sectional variance.
Unified neural network for linear and nonlinear dimension reduction.
problem Efficiently perform linear and nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction.
method Belted and Ensembled Neural Network (BENN) framework.
result Unified framework for both linear and nonlinear dimension reduction.
In this paper we analyse financial implications of exchangeability and similar properties of finite dimensional random vectors. We show how these properties are reflected in prices of some basket options in view of the well-known put-call symmetry property and the duality principle in option pricing. A particular atten…
We say that a topologically embedded 3-sphere in a smoothing of Euclidean 4-space is a barrier provided, roughly, no diffeomorphism of the 4-manifold moves the 3-sphere off itself. In this paper we construct infinitely many one parameter families of distinct smoothings of 4-space with barrier 3-spheres. \par The existe…