On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

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2 results for “conditional-incremental”

Disentangled Feature Importancestat.ML

DFI maps covariates to latent representations for feature importance.

problem Feature importance when predictors are statistically dependent.

method Disentangled Feature Importance (DFI) using entropic optimal transport.

result DFI yields stable, interpretable, uncertainty-quantified attributions of shared predictive signal.

feature importance statistical dependence conditional-incremental latent representation optimal transport

2025-06-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Prediction Markets as Bayesian Inverse Problems: Uncertainty Quantification, Identifiability, and Information Gain from Price-Volume Histories under Latent Typesq-fin.MF

This paper treats prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems to quantify uncertainty and identify event outcomes.

problem Uncertainty and identifiability in prediction market outcomes from price-volume histories.

method Formulates prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems, introduces a log-odds observation model, and derives posterior uncertainty quantification and identifiability criteria.

result Explicit diagnostics for informative and stable inference regimes, and validation through synthetic data experiments.

prediction markets Bayesian inverse problems uncertainty quantification identifiability information gain

2026-01-22abs ↗pdf ↗