arXiv research

This paper uses multivariate probability models to assess financial system risks.

New CPS model tackles conditional probability shift in machine learning.

Conventional multiclass conditional probability estimation methods, such as Fisher's discriminate analysis and logistic regression, often require restrictive distributional model assumption. In this paper, a model-free estimation method is proposed to estimate multiclass conditional probability through a series of cond…

Generative model learns conditional distributions on collective variable levels.

NCP uses neural networks to efficiently learn conditional distributions.

We present a simple approach to forecasting conditional probability distributions of asset returns. We work with a parsimonious specification of ordered binary choice regression that imposes a connection on sign predictability across different quantiles. The model forecasts the future conditional probability distributi…

There are many advantages to use probability method for nonlinear system identification, such as the noises and outliers in the data set do not affect the probability models significantly; the input features can be extracted in probability forms. The biggest obstacle of the probability model is the probability distribu…

We present a novel procedure for scaling relatively high frequency tail probability and quantile estimates for the conditional distribution of returns.

As inductive inference and machine learning methods in computer science see continued success, researchers are aiming to describe ever more complex probabilistic models and inference algorithms. It is natural to ask whether there is a universal computational procedure for probabilistic inference. We investigate the com…

Conditional restricted Boltzmann machines are undirected stochastic neural networks with a layer of input and output units connected bipartitely to a layer of hidden units. These networks define models of conditional probability distributions on the states of the output units given the states of the input units, parame…

Paper constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.

Study generalizes property elicitation to imprecise probabilities.

Gradient flows on distributions of distributions for machine learning tasks.

Convolutional Bayesian filtering generalizes state estimation by incorporating inequality conditions.

New method estimates and samples high-dimensional probability distributions avoiding optimization and approximation curse.

Refined analysis of Mitra's algorithm for discrete mixtures.

We analyse derivative securities whose value is NOT a deterministic function of an underlying which means presence of a basis risk at any time. The key object of our analysis is conditional probability distribution at a given underlying value and moment of time. We consider time evolution of this probability distributi…

Proposes a new model for joint probability distributions in computer vision.

CSI method learns conditional distributions by estimating flow equations.

We consider the following conditional linear regression problem: the task is to identify both (i) a $k$-DNF condition $c$ and (ii) a linear rule $f$ such that the probability of $c$ is (approximately) at least some given bound $μ$, and $f$ minimizes the $\ell_p$ loss of predicting the target $z$ in the distribution of …

Markov networks (MNs) are a powerful way to compactly represent a joint probability distribution, but most MN structure learning methods are very slow, due to the high cost of evaluating candidates structures. Dependency networks (DNs) represent a probability distribution as a set of conditional probability distributio…

This paper improves learning uncertain Bayesian networks from incomplete data.

Guiding the design of neural networks is of great importance to save enormous resources consumed on empirical decisions of architectural parameters. This paper constructs shallow sigmoid-type neural networks that achieve 100% accuracy in classification for datasets following a linear separability condition. The separab…

Investigates statistical properties of perturb-softmax and perturb-argmax distributions.

A new method quantizes conditional probability measures using deep learning.

Large language models can't efficiently reason conditionally in a distribution-free setting.

New tests for binary classification regression functions without distribution assumptions.

This paper generalizes Moody's correlated binomial default distribution for homogeneous (exchangeable) credit portfolio, which is introduced by Witt, to the case of inhomogeneous portfolios. As inhomogeneous portfolios, we consider two cases. In the first case, we treat a portfolio whose assets have uniform default cor…

The article explains the probabilistic method of default probability estimation by Pluto and Tasche.

We present a novel approach for estimating conditional probability tables, based on a joint, rather than independent, estimate of the conditional distributions belonging to the same table. We derive exact analytical expressions for the estimators and we analyse their properties both analytically and via simulation. We …

Conditional mean embeddings (CMEs) have proven themselves to be a powerful tool in many machine learning applications. They allow the efficient conditioning of probability distributions within the corresponding reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) by providing a linear-algebraic relation for the kernel mean embedd…

We investigate the probability distribution of the volatility return intervals $τ$ for the Chinese stock market. We rescale both the probability distribution $P_{q}(τ)$ and the volatility return intervals $τ$ as $P_{q}(τ)=1/\barτ f(τ/\barτ)$ to obtain a uniform scaling curve for different threshold value $q$. The scali…

The paper simulates Lévy processes and their extremum and hitting time.

Develops a new framework for estimating joint probability distributions.

Study compares two methods for predicting extreme atmospheric events.

SJS model predicts label shifts in multinomial datasets.

New tractable density models from squaring neural networks.

A Hilbert space embedding for probability measures has recently been proposed, with applications including dimensionality reduction, homogeneity testing, and independence testing. This embedding represents any probability measure as a mean element in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). A pseudometric on the spac…

Develops hypothesis tests for conditional distributions using learning-theoretic bounds.

Bayesian approach approximates probability functions of Gaussian mixtures.

Neural framework for conditional OT maps learns from categorical and continuous variables.

CT compares two distributions using Bayes' theorem and chain rule.

Study approximates operators on labelled conditional distributions for non-exchangeable systems.

Our derivation of the distribution function for future returns is based on the risk neutral approach which gives a functional dependence for the European call (put) option price, C(K), given the strike price, K, and the distribution function of the returns. We derive this distribution function using for C(K) a Black-Sc…

The accuracy of probability distributions inferred using machine-learning algorithms heavily depends on data availability and quality. In practical applications it is therefore fundamental to investigate the robustness of a statistical model to misspecification of some of its underlying probabilities. In the context of…

A new method calculates fractional moments using the moment-generating function.

This article introduces a Bayesian nonparametric method for quantifying the relative evidence in a dataset in favour of the dependence or independence of two variables conditional on a third. The approach uses Polya tree priors on spaces of conditional probability densities, accounting for uncertainty in the form of th…

Study tackles criterion collapse in learning criteria, showing conditions for loss minimization.