A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
In this paper, we obtain generic bounds on the variances of estimation and prediction errors in time series analysis via an information-theoretic approach. It is seen in general that the error bounds are determined by the conditional entropy of the data point to be estimated or predicted given the side information or p…
This paper improves entropy bounds for ranking time-series complexity.
problem Ranking the complexity of time series processes.
method Building on information theoretic bounds, the paper improves the upper bound of conditional differential entropy using Hadamard's inequality and covariance matrix properties.
result The improved bounds can be used to rank the complexity of time series processes.
In this paper, we derive generic bounds on the maximum deviations in prediction errors for sequential prediction via an information-theoretic approach. The fundamental bounds are shown to depend only on the conditional entropy of the data point to be predicted given the previous data points. In the asymptotic case, the…
Framework corrects model form errors in structural dynamics predictions.
problem Model form errors in parametric models of structural dynamics.
method Gaussian Process Latent Force Model (GPLFM) for non-parametric discrepancy representation, linear Bayesian filtering for state and discrepancy estimation, modal reduction for computational tractability.
result Significant reduction of displacement and rotation prediction errors under unseen excitations.
In critical care, intensivists are required to continuously monitor high dimensional vital signs and lab measurements to detect and diagnose acute patient conditions. This has always been a challenging task. In this study, we propose a novel self-correcting deep learning prediction approach to address this challenge. W…
Transformer-based models overfit financial time series data, leading to increased prediction variance.
problem Forecast collapse of transformer-based models under squared loss in financial time series.
method Theoretical analysis and numerical experiments on high-frequency EUR/USD exchange rate data.
result Increased model expressivity in Transformer-based models leads to spurious fluctuations without reducing bias, resulting in higher prediction variance.
Deep learning predicts adhesive forces in soft viscoelastic contacts quickly and accurately.
problem Predicting the full time-resolved force trajectory of adhesive soft viscoelastic contacts is computationally expensive and impractical.
method Trained a deep learning model to predict the full force evolution from a prescribed displacement history, using FMS representation and various architectures.
result Best-performing model predicts complete force trajectory with low error metrics and fast inference time.
Mutual information has been successfully adopted in filter feature-selection methods to assess both the relevancy of a subset of features in predicting the target variable and the redundancy with respect to other variables. However, existing algorithms are mostly heuristic and do not offer any guarantee on the proposed…
The study analyzes robustness of estimators in linear models with adversarial errors.
problem Analyzing robustness of estimators in linear models with adversarial errors.
method Develops a general theory for minimum norm interpolating estimators and RERM in linear models without conditions on errors.
result Quantitative bound for the prediction error relating it to Rademacher complexity, norm of minimum norm interpolator of errors, and subdifferential size.
We present a novel method for variable selection in regression models when covariates are measured with error. The iterative algorithm we propose, MEBoost, follows a path defined by estimating equations that correct for covariate measurement error. Via simulation, we evaluated our method and compare its performance to …
New features from early battery cycles predict lifetime with high accuracy.
problem Accurately predicting battery lifetime under varying conditions is challenging due to manufacturing variability and usage-dependent degradation.
method Extracted features from regularly scheduled reference performance tests and used them to predict battery lifetime using a hierarchical Bayesian regression model.
result Demonstrated a lifetime prediction of in-distribution cells with 15.1% mean absolute percentage error using only the first 15% of data.