arXiv research

A new method for estimating causal parameters from observables reduces the need for finite moment conditions.

New method improves estimation of complex models from conditional moment restrictions.

A new method of moments estimator goes beyond data reweighting.

A method learns representations for conditional moment models with controlled ill-posedness.

We tackle causal inference under conditional moment restrictions using importance weighting.

We provide an approach for learning deep neural net representations of models described via conditional moment restrictions. Conditional moment restrictions are widely used, as they are the language by which social scientists describe the assumptions they make to enable causal inference. We formulate the problem of est…

Paper characterizes equilibrium strategies for stochastic control with higher-order moments.

Normal distributions ensure asymptotic variance reduction in moment matching Monte Carlo.

We propose a new family of specification tests called kernel conditional moment (KCM) tests. Our tests are built on a novel representation of conditional moment restrictions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) called conditional moment embedding (CMME). After transforming the conditional moment restrictions in…

We show how to compute lower bounds for the supremum Bayes error if the class-conditional distributions must satisfy moment constraints, where the supremum is with respect to the unknown class-conditional distributions. Our approach makes use of Curto and Fialkow's solutions for the truncated moment problem. The lower …

Develops a new method for estimating models with conditional moment restrictions.

A new method calculates fractional moments using the moment-generating function.

This study shows the moment-SOS hierarchy converges in polynomial optimization over product of spheres.

For a GJR-GARCH specification with a generic innovation distribution we derive analytic expressions for the first four conditional moments of the forward and aggregated returns and variances. Moment for the most commonly used GARCH models are stated as special cases. We also the limits of these moments as the time hori…

Geometric approach to moment maps in complex geometry.

New method for adaptive estimation and inference in econometric models without knowing smoothness.

Maximum likelihood learning with exponential families leads to moment-matching of the sufficient statistics, a classic result. This can be generalized to conditional exponential families and/or when there are hidden data. This document gives a first-principles explanation of these generalized moment-matching conditions…

DML-CMR estimator reduces bias in CMR problems using deep neural networks.

New framework uses score-based priors to solve ill-conditioned polynomial equations, improving signal recovery from noisy data.

Independent component analysis (ICA) is the problem of efficiently recovering a matrix $A \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times n}$ from i.i.d. observations of $X=AS$ where $S \in \mathbb{R}^n$ is a random vector with mutually independent coordinates. This problem has been intensively studied, but all existing efficient algorithms w…

Develops a robust GMM estimator for outlier-tolerant inference.

A new portfolio optimization method using the Sherman-Morrison identity.

Study well-posedness of SPDE on Riemannian manifolds with rough initial conditions.

Conditions for pre-quantizability of G-invariant forms are derived using moment maps.

This paper proposes a Lasso-type estimator for a high-dimensional sparse parameter identified by a single index conditional moment restriction (CMR). In addition to this parameter, the moment function can also depend on a nuisance function, such as the propensity score or the conditional choice probability, which we es…

This work provides a computationally efficient and statistically consistent moment-based estimator for mixtures of spherical Gaussians. Under the condition that component means are in general position, a simple spectral decomposition technique yields consistent parameter estimates from low-order observable moments, wit…

Expectation propagation (EP) is a powerful approximate inference algorithm. However, a critical barrier in applying EP is that the moment matching in message updates can be intractable. Handcrafting approximations is usually tricky, and lacks generalizability. Importance sampling is very expensive. While Laplace propag…

The paper calculates moments and conditional risks for skewed elliptical distributions.

We consider the intensity-based approach for the modeling of default times of one or more companies. In this approach the default times are defined as the jump times of a Cox process, which is a Poisson process conditional on the realization of its intensity. We assume that the intensity follows the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross …

Proposes a new method for big portfolio selection using graph-based conditional moments.

Domain adaptation algorithms are designed to minimize the misclassification risk of a discriminative model for a target domain with little training data by adapting a model from a source domain with a large amount of training data. Standard approaches measure the adaptation discrepancy based on distance measures betwee…

Develops efficient methods for approximating densities of financial models with jumps.

A moment constraint that limits the number of dividends in the optimal dividend problem is suggested. This leads to a new type of time-inconsistent stochastic impulse control problem. First, the optimal solution in the precommitment sense is derived. Second, the problem is formulated as an intrapersonal sequential dyna…

Bayesian framework uses AI-generated data to improve parameter estimation.

The paper derives risk measures for metalog distributions.

Generative adversarial networks sample unknown high-dimensional conditional distributions.

Algorithm identifies probability distributions from noisy moments with minimal samples.

The latest generation of volatility derivatives goes beyond variance and volatility swaps and probes our ability to price realized variance and sojourn times along bridges for the underlying stock price process. In this paper, we give an operator algebraic treatment of this problem based on Dyson expansions and moment …

We consider supervised dimension reduction problems, namely to identify a low dimensional projection of the predictors $\-x$ which can retain the statistical relationship between $\-x$ and the response variable $y$. We follow the idea of the sliced inverse regression (SIR) and the sliced average variance estimation (SA…

It is shown that a small cover (resp. real moment-angle manifold) over a simple polytope is an infra-solvmanifold if and only if it is diffeomorphic to a real Bott manifold (resp. flat torus). Moreover, we obtain several equivalent conditions for a small cover being homeomorphic to a real Bott manifold. In addition, we…

New method for inference on strongly identified functionals even when nuisance functions are weakly identified.

Paper proposes efficient online estimation of causal effects by deciding which data sources to query.

Method estimates posterior model for boundary value problems with uncertain constraints.

We discuss the probabilistic properties of the variation based third and fourth moments of financial returns as estimators of the actual moments of the return distributions. The moment variations are defined under non-parametric assumptions with quadratic variation method but for the computational tractability, we use …

We derive expressions for the first three moments of the decision time (DT) distribution produced via first threshold crossings by sample paths of a drift-diffusion equation. The "pure" and "extended" diffusion processes are widely used to model two-alternative forced choice decisions, and, while simple formulae for ac…

In this paper we introduce an efficient fat-tail measurement framework that is based on the conditional second moments. We construct a goodness-of-fit statistic that has a direct interpretation and can be used to assess the impact of fat-tails on central data conditional dispersion. Next, we show how to use this framew…

We address the problem of estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous Markov chain given only noisy, aggregate data. This arises when a population of individuals behave independently according to a Markov chain, but individual sample paths cannot be observed due to limitations of the observation process or the need…

PMT uses public data moments to make DP feasible for unbounded data.