A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new ML-based filter improves data assimilation for nonlinear systems.
This paper investigates a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current state of the drift arriving at the jump times of a homogeneous Poisson process. Dr…
Constrained adaptive filtering algorithms inculding constrained least mean square (CLMS), constrained affine projection (CAP) and constrained recursive least squares (CRLS) have been extensively studied in many applications. Most existing constrained adaptive filtering algorithms are developed under mean square error (…
Novel filter uses deep BSDE for nonlinear density approximation.
New algorithms robustly estimate mean with near-optimal error rates.
Gradient filters track moving parameters under noisy data and misspecification.
Controlled interacting particle systems such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the feedback particle filter (FPF) are numerical algorithms to approximate the solution of the nonlinear filtering problem in continuous time. The distinguishing feature of these algorithms is that the Bayesian update step is implemen…
Improving Bayesian filtering with strictly proper scoring rules
In this article, we discuss various implementation of L1 filtering in order to detect some properties of noisy signals. This filter consists of using a L1 penalty condition in order to obtain the filtered signal composed by a set of straight trends or steps. This penalty condition, which determines the number of breaks…
Traditional Kalman filter (KF) is derived under the well-known minimum mean square error (MMSE) criterion, which is optimal under Gaussian assumption. However, when the signals are non-Gaussian, especially when the system is disturbed by some heavy-tailed impulsive noises, the performance of KF will deteriorate serious…
Enhanced ensemble filters use machine learning to improve accuracy in filtering models.
Latent FxLMS accelerates ANC by adapting along low-dimensional filter weights.
A new ensemble filter uses transport maps and MMD optimization for high-dimensional data assimilation.
Improved stock volume prediction using Kalman Filters with various hidden states.
A new filter adapts to heavy-tailed data without tuning, improving performance in challenging conditions.
The kernel least mean squares (KLMS) algorithm is a computationally efficient nonlinear adaptive filtering method that "kernelizes" the celebrated (linear) least mean squares algorithm. We demonstrate that the least mean squares algorithm is closely related to the Kalman filtering, and thus, the KLMS can be interpreted…
Convolutional Bayesian filtering generalizes state estimation by incorporating inequality conditions.
New filters improve radar target inference in complex scenarios.
In this paper we study the estimation of changing trends in time-series using trend filtering. This method generalizes 1D Total Variation (TV) denoising for detection of step changes in means to detecting changes in trends, and it relies on a convex optimization problem for which there are very efficient numer…
Develops inverse unscented Kalman filter for non-linear systems.
This study improves state estimation for nonlinear systems using conditional normalizing flows.
Filtered conformal ellipsoids for graph-native time series
In an effort to understand the meaning of the intermediate representations captured by deep networks, recent papers have tried to associate specific semantic concepts to individual neural network filter responses, where interesting correlations are often found, largely by focusing on extremal filter responses. In this …
A new method improves Bayesian filtering in nonlinear systems.
We introduce a probabilistic approach to the LMS filter. By means of an efficient approximation, this approach provides an adaptable step-size LMS algorithm together with a measure of uncertainty about the estimation. In addition, the proposed approximation preserves the linear complexity of the standard LMS. Numerical…
We present a general probabilistic perspective on Gaussian filtering and smoothing. This allows us to show that common approaches to Gaussian filtering/smoothing can be distinguished solely by their methods of computing/approximating the means and covariances of joint probabilities. This implies that novel filters and …
This paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a financial market where the drift of the stock returns is driven by an unobserved Gaussian mean reverting process. Information on this process is obtained from observing stock returns and expert opinions. The latter provide at discrete time points an unbiased est…
LatentTrack generates model parameters online for nonstationary data.
This paper contains the technical foundations from stochastic differential geometry for the construction of geometrically intrinsic nonlinear recursive filters. A diffusion X on a manifold N is run for a time interval T, with a random initial condition. There is a single observation consisting of a nonlinear function o…
The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.
In this paper, we consider the task of designing a Kalman Filter (KF) for an unknown and partially observed autonomous linear time invariant system driven by process and sensor noise. To do so, we propose studying the following two step process: first, using system identification tools rooted in subspace methods, we ob…
For a long investment time horizon, it is preferable to rebalance the portfolio weights at intermediate times. This necessitates a multi-period market model in which portfolio optimization is usually done through dynamic programming. However, this assumes a known distribution for the parameters of the financial time se…
In this paper we formally analyse the use of sparse filtering algorithms to perform covariate shift adaptation. We provide a theoretical analysis of sparse filtering by evaluating the conditions required to perform covariate shift adaptation. We prove that sparse filtering can perform adaptation only if the conditional…
This paper presents a technique for reducing speckle in Polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolSAR) imagery using Nonlocal Means and a statistical test based on stochastic divergences. The main objective is to select homogeneous pixels in the filtering area through statistical tests between distributions. This propo…
Ridge regression linked to Poisson resetting in statistical physics.
Improved Kalman filter for non-linear, non-Gaussian data.
Paper proposes a DNN-driven AF framework for improved generalization.
We revisit the development of grid based recursive approximate filtering of general Markov processes in discrete time, partially observed in conditionally Gaussian noise. The grid based filters considered rely on two types of state quantization: The \textit{Markovian} type and the \textit{marginal} type. We propose a s…
New method improves nonlinear filtering accuracy with reduced computation.
Ens-CGP synthesizes ensemble-based inference with Gaussian processes.
Filtering is a general name for inferring the states of a dynamical system given observations. The most common filtering approach is Gaussian Filtering (GF) where the distribution of the inferred states is a Gaussian whose mean is an affine function of the observations. There are two restrictions in this model: Gaussia…
Paper introduces EnDKF for more accurate pose tracking.
We use GANs and signatures to approximate conditional laws in filtering and prediction of diffusion processes.
A nonparametric kernel-based method for realizing Bayes' rule is proposed, based on representations of probabilities in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Probabilities are uniquely characterized by the mean of the canonical map to the RKHS. The prior and conditional probabilities are expressed in terms of RKHS functio…
Study examines how COVID-19 affects bond yields using network filtering methods.
Kernel adaptive filters (KAF) are a class of powerful nonlinear filters developed in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). The Gaussian kernel is usually the default kernel in KAF algorithms, but selecting the proper kernel size (bandwidth) is still an open important issue especially for learning with small sample s…
We propose a new sampling-based approach for approximate inference in filtering problems. Instead of approximating conditional distributions with a finite set of states, as done in particle filters, our approach approximates the distribution with a weighted sum of functions from a set of continuous functions. Central t…
A novel method reduces dimensionality for filtering SRNs with observed variables.