A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Develops methods for constructing likelihoods and priors for Bayesian networks.
Invertibility conditions for observation-driven time series models often fail to be guaranteed in empirical applications. As a result, the asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood and quasi-maximum likelihood estimators may be compromised. We derive considerably weaker conditions that can be used in practice to ensure t…
In likelihood-free settings where likelihood evaluations are intractable, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) addresses the formidable inference task to discover plausible parameters of simulation programs that explain the observations. However, they demand large quantities of simulation calls. Critically, hyperpara…
Paper proposes a new method for estimating conditional densities using logistic regressions.
A new method trains and samples from energy-based models using diffusion recovery likelihood.
Improved autoregressive models generate higher quality images and are more robust to noise.
We study likelihood-based methods for distribution regression with deep generative models.
The paper addresses ill-conditioning in large spatial data, proposing solutions for prediction and likelihood estimation.
In this paper, we describe the "implicit autoencoder" (IAE), a generative autoencoder in which both the generative path and the recognition path are parametrized by implicit distributions. We use two generative adversarial networks to define the reconstruction and the regularization cost functions of the implicit autoe…
New method for conditional sampling using M-GANs, likely-free inference.
Two synthetic likelihood methods learn EBM of likelihood from simulator data for SBI.
New method for fitting graphical models with latent variables using regularized conditional likelihood.
New SMC sampler improves diffusion model sampling efficiency.
We develop a quasi-likelihood analysis procedure for a general class of multivariate marked point processes. As a by-product of the general method, we establish under stability and ergodicity conditions the local asymptotic normality of the quasi-log likelihood, along with the convergence of moments of quasi-likelihood…
We consider two connected aspects of maximum likelihood estimation of the parameter for high-dimensional discrete graphical models: the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (mle) and its computation. When the data is sparse, there are many zeros in the contingency table and the maximum likelihood estimate of th…
This work explores maximum likelihood optimization of neural networks through hypernetworks. A hypernetwork initializes the weights of another network, which in turn can be employed for typical functional tasks such as regression and classification. We optimize hypernetworks to directly maximize the conditional likelih…
Classifiers based on probabilistic graphical models are very effective. In continuous domains, maximum likelihood is usually used to assess the predictions of those classifiers. When data is scarce, this can easily lead to overfitting. In any probabilistic setting, Bayesian averaging (BA) provides theoretically optimal…
We extend Bayes' theorem for upper probabilities considering likelihood uncertainty.
Researchers develop a method to learn CTBN structure using penalized maximum likelihood.
Bayesian framework uses AI-generated data to improve parameter estimation.
A new method for training diffusion models using likelihood matching.
The study simplifies assessing overlap in logistic regression models using empirical likelihood.
Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any d…
New method improves estimation of complex models from conditional moment restrictions.
Unified contrastive learning for likelihood-free inference.
We derive an explicit formula for likelihood function for Gaussian VARMA model conditioned on initial observables where the moving-average (MA) coefficients are scalar. For fixed MA coefficients the likelihood function is optimized in the autoregressive variables 's by a closed form formula generalizing regression c…
Likelihood-free inference refers to inference when a likelihood function cannot be explicitly evaluated, which is often the case for models based on simulators. Most of the literature is based on sample-based `Approximate Bayesian Computation' methods, but recent work suggests that approaches based on deep neural condi…
FlowSDR learns a low-dimensional projection preserving the response's conditional distribution.
The likelihood function of a finite mixture model is a non-convex function with multiple local maxima and commonly used iterative algorithms such as EM will converge to different solutions depending on initial conditions. In this paper we ask: is it possible to assess how far we are from the global maximum of the likel…
Normalizing Flows (NFs) are able to model complicated distributions p(y) with strong inter-dimensional correlations and high multimodality by transforming a simple base density p(z) through an invertible neural network under the change of variables formula. Such behavior is desirable in multivariate structured predicti…
New estimator for tensor weights with improved bias.
The likelihood function is a fundamental component in Bayesian statistics. However, evaluating the likelihood of an observation is computationally intractable in many applications. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approximation of the likelihood that identifies a probability measure which lies in the neighbor…
The paper analyzes the power of MX CI tests and finds likelihood-based statistics most powerful.
Traditional structured prediction models try to learn the conditional likelihood, i.e., p(y|x), to capture the relationship between the structured output y and the input features x. For many models, computing the likelihood is intractable. These models are therefore hard to train, requiring the use of surrogate objecti…
Many algorithms have been proposed for fitting network models with communities, but most of them do not scale well to large networks, and often fail on sparse networks. Here we propose a new fast pseudo-likelihood method for fitting the stochastic block model for networks, as well as a variant that allows for an arbitr…
Paper proposes an alternative to MLE for GLMs with non-canonical link functions.
It has been argued that in supervised classification tasks, in practice it may be more sensible to perform model selection with respect to some more focused model selection score, like the supervised (conditional) marginal likelihood, than with respect to the standard marginal likelihood criterion. However, for most Ba…
Partition Tree estimates conditional densities for mixed continuous and categorical variables.
Alternative hypothesis tests for class-conditional noise using local maximum likelihood.
There has been much recent, exciting work on combining the complementary strengths of latent variable models and deep learning. Latent variable modeling makes it easy to explicitly specify model constraints through conditional independence properties, while deep learning makes it possible to parameterize these conditio…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and synthetic likelihood (SL) techniques have enabled the use of Bayesian inference for models that may be simulated, but for which the likelihood cannot be evaluated pointwise at values of an unknown parameter . The main idea in ABC and SL is to, for different values of (u…
The paper investigates topic models, ensuring their statistical identifiability and accuracy.
Bayesian evidence helps compare models but can overfit.
EG-LF-MCMC infers posterior densities without likelihoods.
Deep latent variable models (DLVMs) combine the approximation abilities of deep neural networks and the statistical foundations of generative models. Variational methods are commonly used for inference; however, the exact likelihood of these models has been largely overlooked. The purpose of this work is to study the g…
We formulate a new class of conditional generative models based on probability flows. Trained with maximum likelihood, it provides efficient inference and sampling from class-conditionals or the joint distribution, and does not require a priori knowledge of the number of classes or the relationships between classes. Th…
Paper improves BN structure learning from incomplete data.
Machine learning should incorporate maximum likelihood for better estimation.