Optimal model averaging for conditional generative models improves performance across various data types.
problem Multiple plausible generators for conditional distributions can vary in performance.
method Sample-based maximum mean discrepancy, static model averaging, and mixture-of-experts model averaging.
result MoEMA improves over competing baselines across various data types.
Learn conditional averages in PAC framework for better predictions.
problem Learning average labels over neighborhoods in unknown concept class.
method Characterization of learnability using combinatorial parameters.
result Complete characterization and sample complexity bounds.
Regulating causal effects through averaged constraints fails to enforce conditional independence.
problem Enforcing conditional independence in regulatory and analytic settings.
method Formulated causal masking as a linear program and analyzed the resulting enforcement problem from both regulator and optimizer perspectives.
result Averaged-constraint optimization often violates stratum-wise requirements while satisfying the averaged one exactly, and detection requires conditional-independence tests.
Bayesian model estimates treatment effects near cutoffs in regression discontinuity designs.
problem Estimating conditional average treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs.
method Develops a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model with linear leaf-level regressions.
result Adapts to different slopes on the running variable near the cutoff, providing interpretable inference.
We show Vector Autoregressive Moving Average models with scalar Moving Average components could be estimated by generalized least square (GLS) for each fixed moving average polynomial. The conditional variance of the GLS model is the concentrated covariant matrix of the moving average process. Under GLS the likelihood …
Paper identifies and estimates CAPCEs in continuous treatment settings.
problem Estimating heterogeneous causal effects of continuous treatments.
method Instrumental variable approach to identify CAPCEs under weaker conditions.
result Developed three families of CAPCE estimators with statistical properties analyzed.
Study identifies conditions for proxy adjustment in confounded binary treatment outcomes.
problem Average causal effect estimation with a non-differentially mismeasured binary confounder.
method Identifies conditions for proxy adjustment in the presence of a non-differentially mismeasured binary confounder.
result Adjusting for a non-differentially mismeasured binary proxy can improve estimation of the average causal effect.
We present sufficient conditions for topological stability of continuous functions f:R→R having finitely many local extrema with respect to averagings by discrete measures with finite supports.
We analyze the question whether sliding window time averages applied to stationary increment processes converge to a limit in probability. The question centers on averages, correlations, and densities constructed via time averages of the increment x(t,T)=x(t+T)-x(t)and the assumption is that the increment is distribute…
Derives curvature formulas for convex metric sums and conditions for positive average variation.
problem Understanding how the curvature of a convex sum of metrics changes and whether it can increase the average curvature.
method Explicit formulae for curvature of convex sums of Riemannian metrics, studying total geodesic flat torus.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for positive average variation of curvature of \(g_t\).
Deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation methods.
problem Establishing bounds on the deviation of stochastic approximation methods.
method Martingale approximation method for separately Lipschitz functions.
result Established various deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation by averaging and minimization.
Paper introduces new importance metrics for machine learning models, linking them to CATE.
problem Interpreting black-box models' importance metrics due to data dependence and non-parametric nature.
method Introduces MVIM and CVIM, proposing permutation-based estimation and bias-variance decomposition.
result MVIM and CVIM have a quadratic relationship with CATE, addressing bias in correlated predictors.
This paper provides estimation and inference methods for the best linear predictor (approximation) of a structural function, such as conditional average structural and treatment effects, and structural derivatives, based on modern machine learning (ML) tools. We represent this structural function as a conditional expec…
Study evaluates the impact of academic support center's face-to-face assistance on student performance.
problem Underestimation of Academic Support Center's true impact due to group bias.
method Applied causal inference theory and T-learner to evaluate conditional average treatment effect (CATE) of F2F personal assistance.
result Developed a new CATE function that depends on the number of F2F sessions, predicting improved CATE performance.
New TD method stabilizes average-reward learning.
problem Stability issues in average-reward TD learning.
method Implicit fixed point update for average-reward TD(λ). result Improved numerical stability and broader step-size range.
Study Q-learning with averaging for reinforcement learning, proving efficient inference and error bounds.
problem Efficient inference and error bounds for Q-learning with averaging.
method Functional central limit theorem and asymptotic linear estimator for optimal Q-value function.
result Standardized partial-sum process converges weakly to a rescaled Brownian motion, matching instance-dependent lower bound for error.
In this paper, we study a class of stochastic optimization problems, referred to as the \emph{Conditional Stochastic Optimization} (CSO), in the form of $\min_{x \in \mathcal{X}} \EE_ξf_ξ\Big({\EE_{η|ξ}[g_η(x,ξ)]}\Big)$, which finds a wide spectrum of applications including portfolio selection, reinforcement learning, …
Researchers develop a method to measure treatment effects in settings with shared states.
problem Measuring treatment effects in settings with shared states like prices, recommendations, or social signals.
method Double machine learning (DML) theorem with conditions for efficient inference under shared-state interference.
result Efficient estimation of average direct effect (ADE) and global average treatment effect (GATE) in various models.
Average Oracle outperforms DCC+NLS in portfolio optimization.
problem Optimizing portfolio performance in volatile markets.
method Comparing the Average Oracle to various DCC+NLS variants.
result The Average Oracle consistently yields higher Sharpe ratios.
A new method compresses conditional distributions of labelled data.
problem No existing method directly compresses the conditional distribution of labelled data.
method Introduce Average Maximum Conditional Mean Discrepancy (AMCMD), derive a closed form estimator, and extend Kernel Herding (KH) to Average Conditional Kernel Herding (ACKH).
result Directly compressing conditional distributions outperforms joint distribution compression and greedy selection.
Paper introduces stability in model averaging and proposes a L2-penalty method.
problem Theoretical properties of model averaging from stability perspective.
method Introduces stability, defines asymptotic empirical risk minimizer, and proposes L2-penalty model averaging method.
result Proposed L2-penalty method ensures stability and consistency under reasonable conditions.
Study the averaging principle for non-autonomous slow-fast systems and apply it to financial local stochastic volatility models.
problem Understanding the behavior of non-autonomous slow-fast systems of stochastic differential equations.
method Prove the averaging principle under specific conditions and apply it to a financial model.
result Prices of derivatives converge to those calculated using the limit model under a risk-neutral measure.
Since the pioneering work of Ghys, Langevin and Walczak among others, it has been known that several methods of dynamical systems theory can be adopted to study of foliations. Our aim in this paper is to investigate complexity of foliations, by generalising existence problem of time averages in dynamical systems theory…
Improved TD learning with tail averaging and regularization achieves optimal convergence rates.
problem Convergence analysis of TD learning with linear function approximation.
method Tail-averaging and regularization applied to TD learning algorithm.
result Achieves optimal O(1/t) convergence rate in expectation and with high probability. Paper improves BN structure learning from incomplete data.
problem Learning BN structure from incomplete data.
method Node-Average Likelihood (NAL) approach.
result NAL proves consistent and identifiable for conditional Gaussian BNs.
Optimal algorithms for Riemannian optimization with reduced complexity.
problem Stochastic optimization on Riemannian manifolds with limited data.
method Zeroth-order Riemannian Averaging Stochastic Approximation algorithms using Riemannian moving-average estimators and novel geometric conditions.
result Achieves optimal sample complexities for generating approximate first-order stationary solutions.
Paper proposes a new method for conditional coverage in conformal prediction.
problem Lack of strong conditional coverage guarantees in existing conformal prediction methods.
method Modified non-conformity score using local approximation of conditional distribution.
result Unified framework and empirical evaluations show advantage of the new method.
The paper improves Monte Carlo methods for optimization problems.
problem Efficiently solving optimization problems with biased Monte Carlo estimators.
method Introduces Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) within Sample Average Approximation (SAA).
result Establishes uniform convergence and sample complexity for MLMC in SAA.
The paper investigates how calibrating propensity scores improves DML estimates of average treatment effects.
problem Improving the accuracy of DML estimates in finite samples.
method Propensity score calibration within the Double/debiased machine learning framework.
result Calibrating propensity scores reduces the root mean squared error of DML estimates of average treatment effects in finite samples.
New estimators reduce computation for Kendall's tau and conditional Kendall's tau matrices under structural assumptions.
problem Efficient estimation of Kendall's tau and conditional Kendall's tau matrices for large dimensions.
method Averaging pairwise estimates over blocks or conditional estimates, exploiting structural assumptions.
result Improved estimators with reduced computational cost and similar error level.
SAA method solves insurance portfolio optimization with CVaR constraints.
problem Optimal allocation under CVaR constraint in insurance.
method Sample Average Approximation (SAA) method applied to CVaR constrained portfolio optimization.
result Convergence of SAA method and solution uniqueness proved under mild assumptions.
The paper establishes CLTs for Markov chains and improves sampling algorithms for heavy-tailed distributions.
problem Establishing central limit theorems for ergodic averages of Markov chains.
method Drift conditions to provide necessary and sufficient conditions for CLTs, including lower bounds on convergence rates.
result Sharp conditions and convergence rates for various MCMC algorithms on heavy-tailed targets.
The study calculates average crosscap numbers for 2-bridge knots.
problem Determining the average crosscap number of 2-bridge knots.
method Using continued fraction expansions and recursion, the study provides exact formulas for average crosscap numbers.
result The study shows that the limit of the average crosscap number of 2-bridge knots approaches zero as the crossing number increases.
We apply stochastic average gradient (SAG) algorithms for training conditional random fields (CRFs). We describe a practical implementation that uses structure in the CRF gradient to reduce the memory requirement of this linearly-convergent stochastic gradient method, propose a non-uniform sampling scheme that substant…
Options are generally learned by using an inaccurate environment model (or simulator), which contains uncertain model parameters. While there are several methods to learn options that are robust against the uncertainty of model parameters, these methods only consider either the worst case or the average (ordinary) case…
In this thesis, we consider the suitability of using the charged cold fluid model in the description of ultra-relativistic beams. The method that we have used is the following. Firstly, the necessary notions of kinetic theory and differential geometry of second order differential equations are explained. Then an averag…
Group averaging boosts model accuracy without training cost.
problem Challenging training of equivariant models in physics.
method Group averaging at test time, improving accuracy.
result Improves model accuracy by up to 37% in continuous dynamics.
In causal inference, a variety of causal effect estimands have been studied, including the sample, uncensored, target, conditional, optimal subpopulation, and optimal weighted average treatment effects. Ad-hoc methods have been developed for each estimand based on inverse probability weighting (IPW) and on outcome regr…
We present a geometric analysis of the incompressible averaged Euler equations for an ideal inviscid fluid. We show that solutions of these equations are geodesics on the volume-preserving diffeomorphism group of a new weak right invariant pseudo metric. We prove that for precompact open subsets of Rn, thi…
BENK estimates treatment effects with neural kernels for censored data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects with censored time-to-event data.
method Proposes a method using the Beran estimator with neural kernels for survival functions.
result Shows improved accuracy compared to existing methods in various scenarios.
Conformal methods create prediction bands that control average coverage under no assumptions besides i.i.d. data. Besides average coverage, one might also desire to control conditional coverage, that is, coverage for every new testing point. However, without strong assumptions, conditional coverage is unachievable. Giv…
New algorithms improve distributed optimization under mild variance conditions.
problem Improving distributed optimization for large-scale machine learning problems.
method Revisited Federated Averaging and SCAFFOLD algorithms under a general variance condition.
result Established convergence results for smooth nonconvex objective functions under mild variance conditions.
BBCI uses meta prediction to estimate causal effects from datasets.
problem Estimating causal effects from observed data.
method Meta prediction to learn causal effect estimation.
result BBCI accurately estimates ATEs and CATEs across various causal inference problems.
DiD-BCF model improves causal inference in panel data with robust non-parametric methods.
problem Challenges in Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation, especially heterogeneous treatment effects and non-linearities.
method Difference-in-Differences Bayesian Causal Forest (DiD-BCF) with PTA-based reparameterization.
result DiD-BCF provides superior performance and uncovers significant heterogeneity in treatment effects.
Meta-learner estimates heterogeneous DiD effects robustly.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data with DiD.
method Doubly robust meta-learner for CATT, using convex risk minimization and auxiliary models.
result Superior performance over existing methods in empirical tests.
Conditional Asian options are recent market innovations, which offer cheaper and long-dated alternatives to regular Asian options. In contrast with payoffs from regular Asian options which are based on average asset prices, the payoffs from conditional Asian options are determined only by average prices above certain t…
Climate volatility reduces economic growth, especially in poorer countries.
problem Impact of climate volatility on economic growth.
method Exploiting data on 133 countries over 59 years, controlling for temperature changes.
result A 1 degree C increase in temperature volatility leads to a 0.3% decline in GDP growth.
This paper investigates robust and efficient DR/RDR estimators for WATEs.
problem Lack of systematic investigation into robustness and efficiency conditions for WATE estimation.
method Proposes three RDR estimators using semiparametric efficient influence function and double/debiased machine learning.
result Demonstrates the practical relevance of the methods in medical and social sciences.