Money is a technology for promoting economic prosperity. Over history money has become increasingly abstract, it used to be hardware, gold coins and the like, now it is mostly software, data structures located in banks. Here I propose the logical conclusion of the abstraction of money: to use as money the most general …
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48 results for “computational economics”
Study stylized facts in ABCEM models using a new simulator.
problem Understanding stylized facts in economic market models.
method Used SABCEMM tool to simulate and recombine existing ABCEM models.
result Identified and recombined stylized facts in ABCEM models.
Quantum propensity in economicsq-fin.GN
Quantum approach models economic decisions with probabilistic and dynamic probabilities.
problem Traditional economic models fail to explain recent financial crises.
method Develops a quantum probabilistic framework for economics.
result Quantum circuits can model cognitive phenomena like preference reversal.
In the same way as the Hilbert Program was a response to the foundational crisis of mathematics, this article tries to formulate a research program for the socio-economic sciences. The aim of this contribution is to stimulate research in order to close serious knowledge gaps in mainstream economics that the recent fina…
Study develops time-continuous models and probabilistic descriptions for agent-based economic market models.
problem Formulating and describing agent-based economic market models in a time-continuous and probabilistic manner.
method Derived time-continuous formulations, discussed impact of time-scaling, proved stability, presented probabilistic descriptions using kinetic theory.
result Time-continuous formulations and probabilistic descriptions for agent-based economic market models.
Study shows how to better estimate credit provisions and economic capital.
problem Estimating credit provisions and economic capital accurately.
method Using supermodularity ordering properties and elliptically distributed latent factors.
result Convex risk measures of credit losses are nondecreasing w.r.t. various covariances.
Money as a Tensorq-fin.GN
Money analyzed as a multidimensional tensor for better economic policy.
problem Economic complexity and policy responsiveness.
method Tensor analysis of money dynamics.
result Enhanced economic policy design and resilience.
Computer science scans LLMs to understand and manipulate their economic forecasts.
problem Understanding and controlling the reasoning of large language models in economics.
method Brain scanning techniques applied to LLMs to identify and manipulate underlying concepts.
result LLMs can be steered to generate forecasts with specific biases, allowing for correction or simulation.
Premium Calculation Based on Physical Principlescond-mat.stat-mech
We consider the concept of equilibrium in economic systems from statistical mechanics viewpoint. A new method is suggested for computing the premium on this basis. The Bühlmann economic premium principle is derived as a special case of our method.
We formulate thermodynamics of economic systems in terms of an arbitrary probability distribution for a conserved economic quantity. As in statistical physics, thermodynamic macroeconomic variables emerge as the mean value of microeconomic variables and their determination is reduced to the computation of the partition…
Paper classifies economic states and optimizes portfolios for stagflationary environments.
problem Economic uncertainty and stagflationary conditions.
method Mathematical techniques for analyzing multivariate time series, economic driver analysis, self-similarity identification, and portfolio optimization.
result Constructs economic state classifications and computes economic state integrals.
DRL enhances economic modeling with deep learning methods.
problem Complex dynamic business environments in economics.
method Comprehensive review of DL, RL, and deep RL methods applied to economics.
result DRL provides better performance and higher accuracy in economic applications.
The paper argues for a social-economic approach to AI development.
problem The current AI development overlooks social and cultural aspects of intelligence.
method A blend of economic and social concepts with computational and inferential concepts in algorithm design.
result A social-economic approach is necessary for proper AI development.
Develops a framework to analyze financial structures.
problem Difficulty in systematic analysis, comparison, and verification of financial structures.
method Formalizes financial structures as structured allocation systems with explicit allocation operators.
result Specifies inputs, structural requirements, and feasibility restrictions for financial structures.
Deep-MacroFin uses neural networks to solve complex economic models efficiently.
problem Solving high-dimensional partial differential equations in continuous time economics.
method Leverages deep learning, specifically Multi-Layer Perceptrons and Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks, optimized with HJB equations.
result Offers a more efficient solution (5 less memory, 40 fewer FLOPs) for 50D economic models.
In recent years, methods from network science are gaining rapidly interest in economics and finance. A reason for this is that in a globalized world the interconnectedness among economic and financial entities are crucial to understand and networks provide a natural framework for representing and studying such systems.…
Developing an AI economist agent using RAG, knowledge graphs, and LLMs for economic scenario analysis.
problem Economic scenario analysis using large language models and knowledge graphs.
method Proposing an RAG-based AI economist framework that utilizes knowledge graphs and LLMs.
result Improves economic coherence and traceability in generated reports.
Demonstrates ABCE's fairness analysis in complex systems.
problem Complex stochastic systems and subjective value criteria.
method Agent-based computational economics.
result Shows ABCE's capability for fairness analysis.
Effects of Economic Interactions on Credit Riskphysics.soc-ph
We study a credit risk model which captures effects of economic interactions on a firm's default probability. Economic interactions are represented as a functionally defined graph, and the existence of both cooperative, and competitive, business relations is taken into account. We provide an analytic solution of the mo…
New approach uses satellite imagery to estimate economic growth.
problem Lack of reliable economic data in developing countries.
method Dynamic network and representation learning.
result Accurately predicts spatial gross economic expenditures.
We introduce the simulation tool SABCEMM (Simulator for Agent-Based Computational Economic Market Models) for agent-based computational economic market (ABCEM) models. Our simulation tool is implemented in C++ and we can easily run ABCEM models with several million agents. The object-oriented software design enables th…
Statistical mechanics of moneycond-mat.stat-mech
In a closed economic system, money is conserved. Thus, by analogy with energy, the equilibrium probability distribution of money must follow the exponential Gibbs law characterized by an effective temperature equal to the average amount of money per economic agent. We demonstrate how the Gibbs distribution emerges in c…
Study improves stock return prediction by switching between economic states, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Improving stock return prediction across economic regimes.
method State-switching specification using the slope of the yield curve, with an Aligned Economic Index.
result The Aligned Economic Index outperforms traditional predictors, especially during market turbulence.
Study on financial impacts of zombie outbreak on economy.
problem Financial and economic consequences of a zombie epidemic.
method Epidemiological modeling and financial computation.
result GDP losses of 23.44% and financial market drop of 29.30% in a major industrialized nation.
Approximation of stochastic insurer balance-sheet results using signatures of economic scenariosq-fin.RM
This work proposes a fast ALM model approximation using signature theory.
problem High computational cost in ALM model outputs for large-scale sensitivity analyses.
method Approximation of ALM outputs using signature terms derived from economic scenarios.
result The proposed surrogate model reduces computational costs significantly while maintaining strong predictive performance.
How do we assign value to economic transactions? To answer this question, we must consider whether the value of objects is inherent, is a product of social interaction, or involves other mechanisms. Economic theory predicts that there is an optimal price for any market transaction, and can be observed during auctions o…
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years, social media such as Twitter has enabled people to share their opinions regarding …
Labor market institutions are central for modern economies, and their polices can directly affect unemployment rates and economic growth. At the individual level, unemployment often has a detrimental impact on people's well-being and health. At the national level, high employment is one of the central goals of any econ…
This paper introduces Sigma, a domain-specific computational representation for collaboration in large-scale for the field of economics. A computational representation is not a programming language or a software platform. A computational representation is a domain-specific representation system based on three specific …
Optimal intervention in economic networks modeled as influence maximization, with hard computational problems.
problem Optimal intervention in economic networks modeled as influence maximization.
method Transformed into influence maximization-like form, with theoretical and practical implications.
result Optimal intervention is NP-hard and cannot be approximated to a constant factor in polynomial time.
The history of research in finance and economics has been widely impacted by the field of Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE). While at the same time being popular among natural science researchers for its proximity to the successful methods of physics and chemistry for example, the field of ACE has also received…
Python tool detects economic crises from S&P500 correlation data.
problem Identifying economic crises from market correlation data.
method Bayesian multi-trend change point analysis.
result Mean market correlation correlates with major economic events.
Model shows too much information can make markets inefficient.
problem Information overload in financial markets.
method Original model using information overload to show inefficiency.
result Efficient market hypothesis ceases to be true with infinite information.
In this paper the possibility of computing equilibrium in pure exchange and production economies by a homotopy method is investigated. The performance of the algorithm is tested on examples with known equilibria taken from the literature on general equilibrium models and numerical results are presented. In computing eq…
Hierarchical representation of socio-economic complex systems according to minimal sapnning treesq-fin.GN
We investigate hierarchical structure in various complex systems according to Minimum Spanning Tree methods. Firstly, we investigate stock markets where the graphis obtained from the matrix of correlations coefficient computed between all pairs of assets by considering the synchronous time evolution of the difference o…
The analysis of markets with indivisible goods and fixed exogenous prices has played an important role in economic models, especially in relation to wage rigidity and unemployment. This research report provides a mathematical and computational details associated to the mathematical programming based approaches proposed…
Current economic theories miss most of economic dynamics.
problem Accuracy of economic theories and policies depend on economic variables and processes.
method Identify and analyze overlooked economic variables and processes.
result Many economic variables and processes not accounted for in current theories.
A new SOHP filter improves trend estimation in economic time series.
problem Improving trend estimation in nonlinear economic time series.
method Recursive application of one-sided HP filter on updated cyclical components, combined with an incremental HP filtering algorithm.
result Better performance of SOHP filter compared to other HP-type filters on real economic data.
The paper gives picture of enrichment to economic and financial system analysis using agent-based models as a form of advanced study for financial economic data post-statistical-data analysis and micro-simulation analysis. Theoretical exploration is carried out by using comparisons of some usual financial economy syste…
Fragmented exchanges arise due to speed advantages in high-activity regions.
problem Fragmentation of distributed securities exchanges due to speed advantages in high-activity regions.
method Economic model and Monte Carlo simulations of a decentralized exchange with two miner clusters.
result Speed advantage increases with infrastructure asymmetry between regions.
AI framework for automated policy-making connects with econometrics and social choice.
problem Improving government and economic policy-making through AI.
method Social Environment Design framework integrating Reinforcement Learning, EconCS, and Computational Social Choice.
result Promotes ethical and responsible decision making by solving open problems.
This article is a follow-up of a short essay that appeared in Nature 455, 1181 (2008) [arXiv:0810.5306]. It has become increasingly clear that the erratic dynamics of markets is mostly endogenous and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. I elaborate on the idea that spin-glass type of problems, where th…
A new platform models how narratives influence financial markets.
problem Explaining irrational market behaviors through narratives.
method Integrated opinion dynamics and agent-based modeling.
result Initial results show how narratives shape financial outcomes.
We propose a fast algorithm for computing the economic capital, Value at Risk and Greeks in the Gaussian factor model. The algorithm proposed here is much faster than brute force Monte Carlo simulations or Fourier transform based methods \cite{MD}. While the algorithm of Hull-White \cite{HW} is comparably fast, it assu…
New methods improve Bayesian inference for complex economic models.
problem Difficulty in parameter estimation for simulation models, especially in economics.
method Neural network-based black-box approximate Bayesian inference methods.
result Neural network methods provide state-of-the-art parameter inference for economic simulation models.
AIBC uses AI and blockchain for efficient resource sharing.
problem Efficient resource sharing in large-scale decentralized systems.
method Two-consensus scheme with DABFT and DPoEV.
result Predictive deep learning for optimal BFT algorithm selection.
Modeling business cycles via collective risk fluctuations in economic agents' risk space.
problem Understanding and predicting business cycles through economic agents' risk dynamics.
method Continuous numerical risk grades for economic agents, modeling collective economic variables and flows as functions of risk coordinates, deriving equations for their evolution.
result Business and credit cycles are explained as fluctuations of collective economic variables and their mean risks in the risk space of economic agents.
Reinforcement learning aids decision-making in economics and finance.
problem Optimal decision-making in dynamic, uncertain environments.
method Reinforcement learning algorithms to learn optimal policies.
result Deep learning enhances solving complex behavioral problems.