Composite likelihood inference of fractional Gaussian processes with sequentially optimal subset selection
problem Estimating parameters in time series
method Composite likelihood method
result The method reduces computational cost
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48 results for “composite likelihood”
We consider two connected aspects of maximum likelihood estimation of the parameter for high-dimensional discrete graphical models: the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (mle) and its computation. When the data is sparse, there are many zeros in the contingency table and the maximum likelihood estimate of th…
Likelihood-based inference and forecasting for trawl processes: a stochastic optimization approachstat.ME
Develops likelihood-based methods for trawl processes, improving forecasting accuracy.
problem Statistical modeling of trawl processes with heavy tails and long memory.
method Composite likelihood estimation as a stochastic optimization problem, using gradient descent methods.
result New gradient estimators with significantly reduced variance for trawl processes.
The study examines volatility models and finds decoupling of short- and long-term correlation structures.
problem Understanding the dynamic of volatility at different time scales.
method Developed a composite likelihood estimation framework for parametric continuous-time stationary Gaussian processes.
result The short- and long-term correlation structures of stochastic volatility are decoupled.
Edgeworth Accountant calculates privacy loss under differential privacy compositions efficiently.
problem Efficiently computing overall privacy loss under composition of private algorithms.
method Analytical approach using -differential privacy framework and Edgeworth expansion.
result Non-asymptotic -differential privacy bounds with reduced computational cost.
We propose a novel and flexible rank-breaking-then-composite-marginal-likelihood (RBCML) framework for learning random utility models (RUMs), which include the Plackett-Luce model. We characterize conditions for the objective function of RBCML to be strictly log-concave by proving that strict log-concavity is preserved…
Gaussian process (GP) models provide a powerful tool for prediction but are computationally prohibitive using large data sets. In such scenarios, one has to resort to approximate methods. We derive an approximation based on a composite likelihood approach using a general belief updating framework, which leads to a recu…
International Trade: a Reinforced Urn Network Modelphysics.soc-ph
We propose a unified modelling framework that theoretically justifies the main empirical regularities characterizing the international trade network. Each country is associated to a Polya urn whose composition controls the propensity of the country to trade with other countries. The urn composition is updated through t…
Empirical Bayes method improves Gaussian sequence model inference.
problem Estimating parameters in correlated Gaussian sequence models.
method Maximum Composite Marginal Likelihood (CML) estimator, leveraging geometric Brascamp-Lieb inequality.
result CML estimator converges at rate \( n_*^{-1/2} \) in weighted Hellinger distance.
Enhances neural forecasting for hierarchically organized time series data.
problem Probabilistic coherent forecasting of time series data across different levels of aggregation.
method Proposes a coherent multivariate mixture output for neural forecasting architectures, optimizing with a composite likelihood objective.
result 13.2% average accuracy improvements on most datasets compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
Logistic regression models are a popular and effective method to predict the probability of categorical response data. However inference for these models can become computationally prohibitive for large datasets. Here we adapt ideas from symbolic data analysis to summarise the collection of predictor variables into his…
Algorithm samples composite logconcave densities efficiently.
problem Sampling from composite logconcave densities efficiently.
method Uses a restricted Gaussian oracle and gradient queries.
result Achieves strong total variation distance guarantees.
This paper presents foundational theoretical results on distributed parameter estimation for undirected probabilistic graphical models. It introduces a general condition on composite likelihood decompositions of these models which guarantees the global consistency of distributed estimators, provided the local estimator…
New method selects better graphs for GGM inference in small sample sizes.
problem Inference of conditional correlations in high-dimensional data with limited samples.
method Composite procedure combining nodewise edge selection and penalised likelihood maximisation.
result Our method produces graphs closer to the true distribution with better KL divergence.
Bayesian model predicts evolving guest origin markets in tourism.
problem Forecasting the changing composition of guest origin markets in tourism.
method Developed and applied Bayesian Dirichlet autoregressive moving average (BDARMA) models to Airbnb booking data.
result BDARMA models achieve lower forecast error and competitive performance in guest origin market shares.
Bayesian models predict evolving guest origin markets in tourism.
problem Forecasting the changing composition of guest origin markets in tourism.
method Developed and applied Bayesian Dirichlet autoregressive moving average (BDARMA) models to Airbnb booking data.
result BDARMA models outperform standard benchmarks in forecasting guest origin market shares.
vOED-NFs uses normalizing flows to improve Bayesian OED without likelihood evaluations.
problem Optimizing experiments to maximize information gain in model parameters.
method vOED-NFs combines variational approximations with normalizing flows for efficient EIG estimation.
result vOED-NFs achieves lower EIG estimation bias compared to previous methods.
As deep neural networks become more adept at traditional tasks, many of the most exciting new challenges concern multimodality---observations that combine diverse types, such as image and text. In this paper, we introduce a family of multimodal deep generative models derived from variational bounds on the evidence (dat…
Paper develops methods for estimating and forecasting integer-valued trawl processes.
problem Estimation and forecasting of continuous-time integer-valued trawl processes.
method Composite likelihood methods, focusing on pairwise likelihood.
result Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator in the short memory case.
We consider evidence integration from potentially dependent observation processes under varying spatio-temporal sampling resolutions and noise levels. We develop a multi-resolution multi-task (MRGP) framework while allowing for both inter-task and intra-task multi-resolution and multi-fidelity. We develop shallow Gauss…
Clinical patient records are an example of high-dimensional data that is typically collected from disparate sources and comprises of multiple likelihoods with noisy as well as missing values. In this work, we propose an unsupervised generative model that can learn a low-dimensional representation among the observations…
Automating statistical modelling is a challenging problem in artificial intelligence. The Automatic Statistician takes a first step in this direction, by employing a kernel search algorithm with Gaussian Processes (GP) to provide interpretable statistical models for regression problems. However this does not scale due …
A new method extends Bayesian optimization to more models and utilities.
problem Extending Bayesian optimization to a broader class of models and utilities.
method Likelihood-free Bayesian Optimization (LFBO) which directly models the acquisition function without separate inference.
result LFBO outperforms state-of-the-art black-box optimization methods on real-world problems.
Geometry-aware KDE model improves multiclass quantification.
problem Accurately estimating class prevalence for label shift adaptation.
method Log-ratio representations and Aitchison geometry for compositional data, shrinkage regularization.
result Competitive with state-of-the-art quantifiers, often improving over standard KDE-based baselines.
Paper introduces new methods for modeling categorical data.
problem Training generative models on categorical data like text and segmentation.
method Argmax Flows and Multinomial Diffusion models.
result Models outperform existing methods in log-likelihood.
New method improves MMD estimation without convexity assumptions.
problem Lack of theoretical guarantees for MMD estimation algorithms.
method Preconditioned gradient descent (PGD) scheme for MMD optimization.
result PGD scheme converges globally under specific conditions.
Latent variable models are used to estimate variables of interest quantities which are observable only up to some measurement error. In many studies, such variables are known but not precisely quantifiable (such as "job satisfaction" in social sciences and marketing, "analytical ability" in educational testing, or "inf…
Proposes CDRL to improve EBM training and generation quality.
problem Challenges in training energy-based models on high-dimensional data.
method Cooperative diffusion recovery likelihood (CDRL) approach.
result Significantly boosts EBM generation performance on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet.
Machine learning models of music typically break up the task of composition into a chronological process, composing a piece of music in a single pass from beginning to end. On the contrary, human composers write music in a nonlinear fashion, scribbling motifs here and there, often revisiting choices previously made. In…
Knowledge base (KB) completion adds new facts to a KB by making inferences from existing facts, for example by inferring with high likelihood nationality(X,Y) from bornIn(X,Y). Most previous methods infer simple one-hop relational synonyms like this, or use as evidence a multi-hop relational path treated as an atomic f…
Multi-Entity Dependence Learning (MEDL) explores conditional correlations among multiple entities. The availability of rich contextual information requires a nimble learning scheme that tightly integrates with deep neural networks and has the ability to capture correlation structures among exponentially many outcomes. …
In this paper we propose a new class of Dynamic Mixture Models (DAMMs) being able to sequentially adapt the mixture components as well as the mixture composition using information coming from the data. The information driven nature of the proposed class of models allows to exactly compute the full likelihood and to avo…
A new model clusters network nodes based on relative edge weights.
problem Clustering networks ignores node capacities, leading to biased results.
method Proposes a Dirichlet stochastic block model for composition-weighted networks.
result Validated on simulated and real-world networks, showing improved clustering accuracy.
A new method combines scores of individual observations to efficiently approximate posterior distributions.
problem Handling posterior distributions conditioned on multiple observations with neural methods.
method Conditional score modeling to combine learned scores from individual observations.
result Sample-efficient method that can aggregate multiple observations at inference time.
Recently, there has been significant interest in linear regression in the situation where predictors and responses are not observed in matching pairs corresponding to the same statistical unit as a consequence of separate data collection and uncertainty in data integration. Mismatched pairs can considerably impact the …
Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) were proposed as an expressive Bayesian model capable of a mathematically grounded estimation of uncertainty. The expressivity of DPGs results from not only the compositional character but the distribution propagation within the hierarchy. Recently, [1] pointed out that the hierarchical s…
Composition of Fractalsmath.MG
This work is an analytical and numerical study of the composition of several fractals into one and of the relation between the composite dimension and the dimensions of the component fractals. In the case of composition of standard IFS with segments of equal size, the composite dimension can be expressed as a function …
A new model combines deep learning and Gaussian Processes with hyperdata learning.
problem Combining deep learning and Gaussian Processes for expressive and robust learning.
method Conditional Deep Gaussian Process (DGP) with hyperdata learning and approximate inference.
result Conditional DGP offers better expressiveness and robustness compared to existing methods.
Enhances image captioning with novel context combination methods.
problem Improving machine learning for image captioning with structured learning and meaningful interpretation.
method Combines Feature Distribution Composition (FDC), Multiple Role Representation Crossover (MRRC) attention layers, and language decoder.
result Significantly improved image captioning performance (35.3%) and established new standards.
New geometric approach for analyzing compositional data like gut microbiomes.
problem Analyzing non-negative compositional data with relative values only.
method Reinterpret compositional data as quotient topology of a sphere, using spherical harmonics and reflection group actions.
result Construction of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) for compositional data.
We present an efficient algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of exponential family models, with a general parametrization of the energy function that includes neural networks. We exploit the primal-dual view of the MLE with a kinetics augmented model to obtain an estimate associated with an adversarial dua…
Study on deep neural networks using branching processes and Mehler's formula.
problem Understanding the mathematical role of activation functions in compositional neural networks.
method Connection between compositional kernels and branching processes via Mehler's formula; new random features algorithm.
result Explicit formulas for eigenvalues of compositional kernels quantify complexity.
We establish conditions for compositional generalization in machine learning.
problem Achieving compositional generalization in machine learning models.
method We reformulate compositionality as a property of the data-generating process and derive mild conditions on the training distribution and model architecture.
result Our theoretical framework enables compositional generalization under mild conditions.
This paper proves hyperbolicity of virtual knot compositions.
problem Proving hyperbolicity of virtual knot compositions.
method Exploring the composition of hyperbolic virtual knots.
result Strong lower bounds on the volume of compositions.
Develops methods for causal inference in compositional data using instrumental variables.
problem Interpreting summary statistics like diversity indices as causal effects in compositional data.
method Statistical data transformations and regression techniques tailored for compositional data.
result Advantages and limitations of the proposed methods demonstrated on synthetic and real microbiome data.
We propose a new way of constructing invertible neural networks by combining simple building blocks with a novel set of composition rules. This leads to a rich set of invertible architectures, including those similar to ResNets. Inversion is achieved with a locally convergent iterative procedure that is parallelizable …
In classical field theory, the composite fibred manifolds Y -> Z -> X provides the adequate mathematical formulation of gauge models with broken symmetries, e.g., the gauge gravitation theory. This work is devoted to connections on composite fibred manifolds. In particular, we get the horizontal splitting of the vertic…
A new method improves training of energy-based models.
problem Training energy-based models is challenging.
method Diffusive Classification (DiffCLF) objective.
result DiffCLF enables EBMs with higher fidelity and broader applicability.