Paper introduces a neural network-based non-stationary influence kernel for complex event data.
problem Modeling complex, non-stationary, and dependent discrete event data.
method Neural Spectral Marked Point Processes (NSMPP) with a versatile non-stationary influence kernel.
result NSMPP outperforms state-of-the-art models on synthetic and real data.
In complex processes, various events can happen in different sequences. The prediction of the next event given an a-priori process state is of importance in such processes. Recent methods have proposed deep learning techniques such as recurrent neural networks, developed on raw event logs, to predict the next event fro…
Proposes a new model for complex multivariate event data.
problem Modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics.
method Integrates spatial information into latent state evolution through learned temporal and spatial decay dynamics.
result Successfully recovers sensible temporal and spatial intensity structure in multivariate spatio-temporal point patterns.
Proposes a new framework to disentangle event influences in MTPP.
problem Underexplored how individual events influence overall dynamics over time.
method Decoupled MTPP framework using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Neural ODEs).
result Significantly improves performance on real-life datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Modeling solar ramping events with spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Predicting solar ramping events influenced by weather conditions.
method Novel spatio-temporal categorical point process model.
result Effective modeling of spatio-temporal correlations in solar ramping events.
LOBDIF predicts limit order book events using a diffusion model.
problem Predicting the timing and type of events in a dynamic market system.
method LOBDIF uses a diffusion model to learn the complex time-event distribution in limit order book streams.
result LOBDIF significantly outperforms existing methods in real-world data experiments.
New methods for inferring, predicting, and estimating continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
problem Inferring, predicting, and estimating entropy rate of continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
method Bayesian structural inference extended with neural networks.
result Methods are competitive for prediction and entropy-rate estimation with state-of-the-art.
Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of d…
Graph Hawkes Neural Network forecasts evolving graph sequences.
problem Modeling dynamic graph sequences with complex event types.
method Generalized Hawkes process to neural network, capturing complex event impacts.
result Effective at predicting future events in evolving graph sequences.
This paper introduces a novel framework for modeling temporal events with complex longitudinal dependency that are generated by dependent sources. This framework takes advantage of multidimensional point processes for modeling time of events. The intensity function of the proposed process is a mixture of intensities, a…
A new framework models multi-state events and biomarkers.
problem Limited representation of complex multi-state trajectories.
method General multi-state joint modeling framework.
result Accurate parameter recovery and personalized predictions.
Paper uncovers causal structures in Hawkes processes with latent subprocesses.
problem Tackles latent subprocesses in Hawkes processes with complex event-driven interactions.
method Proposes a two-phase iterative algorithm that infers causal relationships and identifies latent subprocesses.
result Successfully recovers causal structures in datasets with latent subprocesses.
Predicting when and where events will occur in cities, like taxi pick-ups, crimes, and vehicle collisions, is a challenging and important problem with many applications in fields such as urban planning, transportation optimization and location-based marketing. Though many point processes have been proposed to model eve…
THP model captures complex dependencies in event sequences efficiently.
problem Inability of existing models to capture long-term dependencies in event sequences.
method Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) model using self-attention mechanism.
result THP outperforms existing models in likelihood and event prediction accuracy.
A new model captures complex event data using attention and Fourier kernels.
problem Capturing complex non-linear temporal dependencies in discrete event data.
method Integrates attention mechanism into point processes' conditional intensity function and uses Fourier kernel embedding.
result Established theoretical properties and demonstrated competitive performance.
Paper establishes bounds for RNN-TPPs, showing four-layer networks can achieve vanishing errors.
problem Understanding theoretical limits of RNN-TPPs.
method Characterized RNN complexity, constructed neural approximations, applied truncation technique.
result Four-layer RNN-TPPs can achieve vanishing generalization errors.
Event sequences can be modeled by temporal point processes (TPPs) to capture their asynchronous and probabilistic nature. We propose an intensity-free framework that directly models the point process distribution by utilizing normalizing flows. This approach is capable of capturing highly complex temporal distributions…
DisCoveR efficiently discovers declarative process models from event logs.
problem Mining declarative process models from event logs efficiently and accurately.
method DisCoveR precisely formalizes an algorithm, uses a bit vector implementation, and rigorously evaluates performance.
result DisCoveR outperforms other declarative miners in accuracy and runtime.
The episodic, irregular and asynchronous nature of medical data render them difficult substrates for standard machine learning algorithms. We would like to abstract away this difficulty for the class of time-stamped categorical variables (or events) by modeling them as a renewal process and inferring a probability dens…
A new model predicts network events with improved accuracy and interpretability.
problem Predicting and understanding complex dynamic relational data in networks.
method Mutually Exciting Latent Space Hawkes (LSH) model for continuous-time networks.
result The LSH model outperforms existing models in prediction accuracy and interpretability.
Introduces CuFun model for more accurate TPPs using CDF.
problem Challenges in forecasting future events in TPPs.
method Uses Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) and monotonic neural network.
result Significantly improves adaptability and precision in TPPs.
Electroencephalography (EEG) during sleep is used by clinicians to evaluate various neurological disorders. In sleep medicine, it is relevant to detect macro-events (> 10s) such as sleep stages, and micro-events (<2s) such as spindles and K-complexes. Annotations of such events require a trained sleep expert, a time co…
We present a non-parametric prognostic framework for individualized event prediction based on joint modeling of both longitudinal and time-to-event data. Our approach exploits a multivariate Gaussian convolution process (MGCP) to model the evolution of longitudinal signals and a Cox model to map time-to-event data with…
Python package cegpy models processes with asymmetries.
problem Leveraging CEGs for processes with structural asymmetries.
method Developed cegpy, a Python package for CEGs with Bayesian model selection and probability propagation.
result First CEG package in any language that can model symmetric and asymmetric structures.
Proposes a model for predicting events from event streams.
problem Predicting events like part replacement and failure in manufacturing and teleservice systems.
method Non-parametric prognostic framework using MGCP modulated Poisson processes.
result MGCP prior facilitates sharing of information and analysis of flexible event patterns.
A new model predicts discrete events with flexible, nonparametric baseline and excitation.
problem Limited flexibility in discrete Hawkes models for event prediction.
method Gaussian Process Discrete Hawkes Process (GP-DHP) with collapsed latent representation.
result Improves predictive log-likelihood for diverse event patterns.
Social goods, such as healthcare, smart city, and information networks, often produce ordered event data in continuous time. The generative processes of these event data can be very complex, requiring flexible models to capture their dynamics. Temporal point processes offer an elegant framework for modeling event data …
We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to a cluster is generated via the same Hawkes process with specific parameters, an…
UNIPoint universally approximates point process intensities.
problem How to precisely describe the flexibility of point process models.
method Proof using Stone-Weierstrass Theorem, transfer functions, and recurrent neural networks.
result UNIPoint performs better than other models on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Graph neural networks detect anomalies in object-centric business processes.
problem Detecting anomalies in graph-like business processes.
method Graph convolutional autoencoder architecture for anomaly detection.
result Promising performance in detecting anomalies at the activity type and attributes level.
S2P2 model improves predictive likelihoods for MTPPs.
problem Modeling irregular time intervals in event sequences.
method State-space point process model using deep state-space techniques.
result Empirically, S2P2 achieves state-of-the-art predictive likelihoods.
ISAHP discovers instance-level causal structures in event sequences.
problem Discovering fine-grained causal relationships in asynchronous, interdependent event sequences.
method ISAHP, a novel deep learning framework using self-attention mechanism.
result ISAHP meets Granger causality requirements and discovers complex causal structures.
New algorithm identifies best arm in rare event scenarios.
problem Identifying the best arm with tiny reward probability.
method Approximated Compound Poisson process for faster algorithms.
result Improved computational efficiency with minor sample complexity increase.
UNHaP removes noise from physiological events using Hawkes processes.
problem Challenges in identifying true events from spurious ones in physiological signal analysis.
method UNHaP uses marked Hawkes processes to distinguish and unmix true events from noise.
result UNHaP significantly reduces false detection rates and enhances event understanding.
RED detects sleep EEG events using deep neural networks, outperforming previous methods.
problem Manual detection of sleep EEG events is time-consuming and variable.
method Deep Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with convolutional and recurrent components.
result RED outperforms state-of-the-art methods in sleep spindle and K-complex detection.
Unified framework detects changes in complex system models.
problem Accurate identification of dynamic changes in simulation models.
method Combines machine learning and process-driven simulation modeling.
result Significantly improves change point detection accuracy.
Survey on modeling event sequences through temporal processes.
problem Modeling phenomena with sequences of events over continuous time.
method Probabilistic models based on point processes, categorized into simple, marked, and spatio-temporal.
result Analysis of existing approaches and their applicability to prediction and modeling.
Online algorithm detects community structure in dynamic event streams.
problem Community detection in networks with temporal event streams.
method Continuous-time point process latent network models with fast online variational inference.
result Online inference achieves comparable community recovery to non-online methods but with computational gains.
In this paper, we present a framework for fitting multivariate Hawkes processes for large-scale problems both in the number of events in the observed history n and the number of event types d (i.e. dimensions). The proposed Low-Rank Hawkes Process (LRHP) framework introduces a low-rank approximation of the kernel m…
DREAM model improves computational efficiency for non-linear effects in relational event models.
problem Efficiently modeling non-linear effects in dynamic relational networks.
method Introduces Deep Relational Event Additive Model (DREAM) using Neural Additive Models.
result Demonstrates superior computational efficiency compared to traditional REM approaches.
This paper explores neural models to improve modeling of Hawkes process intensity functions.
problem Traditional Hawkes process intensity function's parametrized kernel function biases future event predictions.
method Uses neural models to model the kernel function of Hawkes process intensity function.
result Neural models can better capture future event characteristics using past events data.
The aim of process discovery, originating from the area of process mining, is to discover a process model based on business process execution data. A majority of process discovery techniques relies on an event log as an input. An event log is a static source of historical data capturing the execution of a business proc…
A new method for embedding sparse high-order interactions.
problem Learning embeddings from sparse high-order interaction events.
method Hybridizing sparse hypergraph and matrix Gaussian processes.
result Strong asymptotic bounds on sparsity ratio.
The study examines Hawkes processes and their long-term behavior.
problem Understanding the long-term behavior of Hawkes processes.
method Proving functional limit theorems under various conditions on the dispersion of child events.
result Functional limit theorems hold for Hawkes processes with different levels of child event dispersion.
Advances in deep learning for spatio-temporal event modeling.
problem Limitations of traditional parametric models in capturing nonstationary dynamics.
method Integration of deep neural architectures to model conditional intensity function and influence kernels.
result Deep influence kernel approach enhances expressiveness and statistical explainability.
This chapter provides an accessible introduction for point processes, and especially Hawkes processes, for modeling discrete, inter-dependent events over continuous time. We start by reviewing the definitions and the key concepts in point processes. We then introduce the Hawkes process, its event intensity function, as…
Generative model simulates rare events for better decision making.
problem Rare events impact decision making but are hard to sample.
method Normalizing Flow coupled with Importance Sampling.
result Accurate estimation of rare events improves decision outcomes.
Financial markets are extremely data-driven and regulated. Participants rely on notifications about significant events and background information that meet their requirements regarding timeliness, accuracy, and completeness. As one of Europe's leading providers of financial data and regulatory solutions vwd processes a…