Study examines HTE estimation from time-to-event data with competing events.
problem Estimating HTEs from time-to-event data with competing events.
method Outcome modeling approach using plug-in estimators for potential outcomes.
result Competing events introduce new challenges for HTE estimation.
Survival analysis in the presence of multiple possible adverse events, i.e., competing risks, is a pervasive problem in many industries (healthcare, finance, etc.). Since only one event is typically observed, the incidence of an event of interest is often obscured by other related competing events. This nonidentifiabil…
PyDTS analyzes survival data with discrete intervals and competing risks.
problem Discrete-time survival analysis with competing risks and optional penalization.
method Regularized estimation methods, model evaluation metrics, variable screening tools, and simulation module.
result Supports research and development in discrete-time survival analysis.
SurvTRACE uses transformers to analyze survival times with competing events.
problem Analyzing survival times with multiple competing events and confounders.
method Transformer-based model for survival analysis, handling competing events and confounders.
result SurvTRACE outperforms existing methods in multi-event scenarios.
SurvivalBoost improves prediction of event times in competing risks scenarios.
problem Predicting event times in scenarios with multiple possible outcomes.
method Developed a strictly proper censoring-adjusted scoring rule for stochastic optimization of competing risks.
result SurvivalBoost outperforms 12 state-of-the-art models across various metrics.
SurvLatent ODE predicts VTE risk for cancer patients, outperforming current methods.
problem Predicting clinical outcomes from irregularly sampled EHR data with competing events.
method Neural ODE-based Recurrent Neural Networks (ODE-RNN) for flexible survival time estimation.
result SurvLatent ODE outperforms Khorana Risk scores for VTE risk prediction.
This paper uses neural networks to accurately model competing risks in survival analysis.
problem Ignoring competing risks leads to biased survival estimation in machine learning models.
method The paper introduces constrained monotonic neural networks to model each competing survival distribution.
result The method ensures exact likelihood maximization with reduced computational cost.
Comprisk simplifies competing-risks analysis in Python.
problem Analyzing medical time-to-event data with competing risks.
method A scikit-learn-compatible toolkit for competing-risks survival analysis.
result Comprisk provides a unified API for various competing-risks methods.
The paper estimates personalized treatment effects in medical settings with competing risks.
problem Estimating treatment effectiveness for specific events in the presence of alternative event types.
method Meta-learners combining Cox regression or random survival forests for risk modeling and elastic net regression or random forests for direct CATE modeling.
result Compared meta-learners in multiple simulation settings, providing practical guidance for model selection.
New method for discrete-time survival analysis with competing risks.
problem Discrete failure time data in survival analysis.
method Proposes a new estimation procedure for discrete-time survival analysis with competing events.
result Offers advantages over existing procedures and integrates regularized regression methods.
Random forest models predict CLABSI risk in hospital admissions, with static models performing similarly to dynamic ones.
problem Predicting CLABSI risk in hospital admissions using EHR data with competing risks.
method Comparison of static and dynamic random forest models for binary, multinomial, survival, and competing risks outcomes.
result Static and dynamic random forest models perform similarly in predicting CLABSI risk, with multinomial models having the lowest computation times.
We propose Lomax delegate racing (LDR) to explicitly model the mechanism of survival under competing risks and to interpret how the covariates accelerate or decelerate the time to event. LDR explains non-monotonic covariate effects by racing a potentially infinite number of sub-risks, and consequently relaxes the ubiqu…
Discusses handling intercurrent events in clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes.
problem Handling intercurrent events in clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes.
method Defines estimands and six ICE handling strategies, including new competing-risk strategy.
result Novel methods for handling intercurrent events in clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes.
New algorithm predicts lung cancer progression and mortality.
problem Predicting semi-competing risk outcomes in lung cancer.
method Neural Expectation-Maximization algorithm for multi-state outcomes.
result Estimates non-parametric baseline hazards and risk functions.
TraCeR uses transformers to analyze survival data with longitudinal covariates.
problem Handling longitudinal covariates and assessing model calibration in survival analysis.
method Transformer-based survival analysis framework with factorized self-attention architecture.
result TraCeR achieves significant performance improvements over state-of-the-art methods.
New method estimates survival risks without strong proportional hazard assumptions.
problem Time-to-event prediction with censored data and competing risks.
method Jointly learns deep nonlinear representations for fully parametric survival regression.
result Demonstrates benefits in real-world datasets with different censoring levels.
Proposes a flexible neural model for multi-state survival analysis.
problem Limited applicability of Cox models for multi-state and competing events.
method Uses neural ordinary differential equations to solve Kolmogorov forward equations.
result Demonstrates state-of-the-art performance and interpretability.
This project was motivated by a dialysis study in northern Taiwan. Dialysis patients, after shunt implantation, may experience two types ("acute" or "non-acute") of shunt thrombosis, both of which may recur. We formulate the problem under the framework of recurrent events data in the presence of competing risks. In par…
Develops new methods to estimate treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.
problem Estimating treatment effects in survival data with competing risks.
method Censoring Unbiased Transformations (CUTs) for survival outcomes with and without competing risks.
result Consistent estimates of heterogeneous cumulative incidence effects and total effects using HTE learners.
Due to the growing demand for improving surveillance capabilities in smart cities, systems need to be developed to provide better monitoring capabilities to competent authorities, agencies responsible for strategic resource management, and emergency call centers. This work assumes that, as a complementary monitoring so…
Develops regression trees for estimating cumulative incidence curves in competing risks.
problem Estimating cumulative incidence functions in competing risks settings.
method Uses augmented estimators of the Brier score risk to build and prune regression trees.
result Demonstrates the utility of the proposed methods through simulation studies and real data.
TransformerLSR models longitudinal, recurrent, and survival data jointly.
problem Joint modeling of longitudinal measurements, recurrent events, and survival data with dependencies.
method Transformer-based deep learning framework integrating deep temporal point processes and latent structure representation.
result TransformerLSR effectively models all three components simultaneously, demonstrating necessity and effectiveness through simulations and real-world data.
VSI model predicts survival distributions efficiently.
problem Predicting time-to-event distributions in clinical applications.
method Variational framework for non-parametric distribution estimation.
result Improved performance over competing solutions.
SSH-Net: A Deep Neural Network for Predicting Failure Time Distribution Functions under Competing Risks with GPU Data
problem Predicting failure time distribution functions under competing risks
method Structured Segmented Hazard Deep Neural Network (SSH-Net)
result Prediction accuracy validated through simulation studies and GPU data
A new framework models multi-state events and biomarkers.
problem Limited representation of complex multi-state trajectories.
method General multi-state joint modeling framework.
result Accurate parameter recovery and personalized predictions.
We develop a novel algorithm to predict the occurrence of major abdominal surgery within 5 years following Crohn's disease diagnosis using a panel of 29 baseline covariates from the Swedish population registers. We model pseudo-observations based on the Aalen-Johansen estimator of the cause-specific cumulative incidenc…
Study shows pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts crypto futures liquidity better than event labels.
problem Understanding how crypto futures liquidity changes over time.
method Combining L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows to define discrete liquidity-state transitions and evaluate models.
result Pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts post-event liquidity regimes better than event labels, and order flow adds value only when layered on top of the state model.
This monograph introduces deep learning models for predicting time-to-event outcomes.
problem Predicting critical events and their timing from time series data.
method Neural networks and deep learning models for survival analysis.
result Improved accuracy in predicting time-to-event outcomes using deep learning.
ET-GP-UCB optimizes time-varying functions without knowing change rates.
problem Sequentially optimizing a time-varying objective function with unknown change rates.
method Event-triggered Bayesian optimization with adaptive resets based on probabilistic uniform error bounds.
result ET-GP-UCB outperforms other GP-UCB algorithms in synthetic and real-world data.
A new method prices time-to-event cash flows using survival analysis.
problem Pricing insurance investment portfolios with time-to-event cash flows.
method Discrete-time survival analysis framework, hazard rate estimators, asymptotic multivariate normality.
result Pricing model yields estimates closer to actual cash flows than non-random models.
Early detection and precise characterization of emerging topics in text streams can be highly useful in applications such as timely and targeted public health interventions and discovering evolving regional business trends. Many methods have been proposed for detecting emerging events in text streams using topic modeli…
A new machine learning framework simplifies survival analysis.
problem Survival analysis challenges including censoring, truncation, and multiple events.
method Data augmentation to standard Poisson regression, using various machine learning algorithms.
result General machine learning methods can be applied to time-to-event analysis without specific assumptions.
Rainfall ensemble forecasts have to be skillful for both low precipitation and extreme events. We present statistical post-processing methods based on Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) and Gradient Forests (GF) with a parametric extension for heavy-tailed distributions. Our goal is to improve ensemble quality for all t…
Develops a Bayesian method for causal inference with partly censored time-to-event data.
problem Estimating causal effects with unobserved confounders and measurement errors in partly censored time-to-event data.
method Semiparametric Bayesian instrumental variable analysis using a two-stage Dirichlet process mixture model.
result The proposed method outperforms competing methods in simulations and real-world data analysis.
DynForest predicts event probabilities from longitudinal data, handling endogenous predictors.
problem Predicting individual risk using longitudinal patient history.
method Random survival forests with time-fixed features from longitudinal predictors.
result DynForest provides accurate individual event probability predictions.
Detecting real-time price impact in algo trading
problem Identifying the impact of traders' actions on market prices
method Measuring timing synchronicity between trader actions and adverse market events
result Detecting price impact on a per-action basis
BoXHED2.0 boosts survival analysis for complex data.
problem Survival analysis with time-dependent covariates.
method Tree-boosted hazard estimator, fully nonparametric, scalable.
result Scalable to parametric boosted survival models in speed.
Predicts clinical events using a landmark approach with machine learning for large biomarker histories.
problem Dynamic prediction of clinical events from large biomarker histories.
method Landmark approach extended to endogenous markers history combined with machine learning methods for survival data.
result Superlearner combining regularized regressions and random survival forests outperforms standard survival models.
Ethereum transition to PoS reduces energy consumption and decentralizes the network.
problem Transitioning from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake to reduce energy consumption and decentralize the network.
method Analyzed the impact of the Ethereum transition to proof-of-stake on network performance, competing platforms, and transaction fees.
result The transition to PoS has reduced energy consumption by 99.98% and decreased network concentration.
In the practice of point prediction, it is desirable that forecasters receive a directive in the form of a statistical functional, such as the mean or a quantile of the predictive distribution. When evaluating and comparing competing forecasts, it is then critical that the scoring function used for these purposes be co…
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields of statistical science. The dissimilarity between a probability forecast and an outcome is measured by a loss function (scoring rule). Popular example of scoring rule for continuous outcomes is the …
Efficient human resource management needs accurate assessment and representation of available competences as well as effective mapping of required competences for specific jobs and positions. In this regard, appropriate definition and identification of competence gaps express differences between acquired and required c…
The paper models default probabilities and total defaults in credit portfolios using a contagion process with self-exciting jumps.
problem Modeling default probabilities and total defaults in credit portfolios to mitigate credit risk.
method Developed a contagion process with self-exciting jumps to model credit events and derive closed-form expressions for default probabilities and total defaults.
result The proposed framework captures the feedback effect and can be used to price synthetic CDOs.
Dynamic Ensemble Selection (DES) techniques aim to select locally competent classifiers for the classification of each new test sample. Most DES techniques estimate the competence of classifiers using a given criterion over the region of competence of the test sample (its the nearest neighbors in the validation set). T…
Estimating machine learning performance 'in the wild' is both an important and unsolved problem. In this paper, we seek to examine, understand, and predict the pointwise competence of classification models. Our contributions are twofold: First, we establish a statistically rigorous definition of competence that general…
Dynamic regressor selection (DRS) systems work by selecting the most competent regressors from an ensemble to estimate the target value of a given test pattern. This competence is usually quantified using the performance of the regressors in local regions of the feature space around the test pattern. However, choosing …
This paper uses VAE to generate extreme events from multivariate data.
problem Generating accurate extremes from observational data for risk assessment.
method Variational Autoencoder (VAE) approach for multivariate heavy-tailed distributions.
result Improves learning of dependency structure between extremes.
This paper uses Hawkes processes to forecast high-frequency order flow imbalance.
problem Forecasting the asymmetry in high-frequency order flow events.
method Hawkes processes accounting for lagged dependence between bid and offer events.
result Hawkes process with a Sum of Exponential's kernel gives the best forecast of order flow imbalance.