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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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10203040 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for coin-flip oracle

Study sets a nontrivial upper limit on return forecasting accuracy.

problem Establishing a practical upper limit for return forecasting accuracy.
method Defined a coin-flip oracle model to theoretically outperform practical models and used its RextOOS2R^2_{ ext{OOS}} as an upper bound.
result Theoretical upper bound on RextOOS2R^2_{ ext{OOS}} is a quadratic function of directional accuracy.

What are the prices of random variables? In this paper, we define the least-squares prices of coin-flipping games, which are proved to be minimal, positive linear, and arbitrage-free. These prices depend both on a set of games that are available for investing simultaneously and on a risk-free interest rate. In addition…

2007-03-04abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper explores using nonlinear control for robust logarithmic growth in coin flipping games.

problem Tackles the use of nonlinear control in recursive betting games with logarithmic growth.
method Formulates a robust nonlinear control problem for a simple coin flipping game, considering a probability range for the coin's bias.
result Provides a closed-form description of the optimal robust nonlinear controller, which outperforms linear controllers.

EagleEye detects localized density anomalies in multivariate data.

problem Identifying signal events, regime changes, or model mismatch in scientific data.
method EagleEye pinpoints local over- and under-densities by assigning anomaly scores based on binary membership sequences and binomial null models.
result EagleEye can detect genuine local anomalies and estimate background purity.

Just as semantic hashing can accelerate information retrieval, binary valued embeddings can significantly reduce latency in the retrieval of graphical data. We introduce a simple but effective model for learning such binary vectors for nodes in a graph. By imagining the embeddings as independent coin flips of varying b…

2018-03-25abs ↗pdf ↗

In this article, I will present a paradox whose purpose is to draw your attention to an important topic in finance, concerning the non-independence of the financial returns (non-ergodic hypothesis). In this paradox, we have two people sitting at a table separated by a black sheet so that they cannot see each other and …

2019-03-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Oracle-efficient algorithms reduce combinatorial semi-bandit regret to logarithmic time.

problem Scalability issue in combinatorial semi-bandit problems due to high combinatorial optimization costs.
method Oracle-efficient frameworks that minimize oracle queries while maintaining tight regret guarantees.
result Achieved ildeO(T) ilde{O}(\sqrt{T}) regret with O(loglogT)O(\log\log T) oracle queries for worst-case linear rewards.

New analysis shows Thompson Sampling can work with greedy approximations in combinatorial bandits.

problem Thompson Sampling's theoretical limits with greedy approximations in combinatorial semi-bandits.
method Study with greedy oracle, providing lower and upper bounds on regret.
result First theoretical results showing TS can work with greedy approximations, breaking misconceptions.

MAMBA learns policies competitive with multiple conflicting oracles.

problem Learning policies from multiple conflicting oracles in reinforcement learning.
method MAMBA uses a gradient estimator in the style of GAE to optimize policies, leveraging demonstrations from multiple weak oracles.
result MAMBA outperforms the state-of-the-art in learning policies competitive with multiple conflicting oracles.

We study the problem of interactively learning a binary classifier using noisy labeling and pairwise comparison oracles, where the comparison oracle answers which one in the given two instances is more likely to be positive. Learning from such oracles has multiple applications where obtaining direct labels is harder bu…

2017-04-19abs ↗pdf ↗

New oracle uses uncertainty for active classification with noisy feedback.

problem Improving query complexity in interactive binary classifier learning.
method Proposes a new pairwise comparison oracle that considers uncertainty and an adaptive labeling algorithm.
result Demonstrates improved performance and efficiency compared to existing methods.

Quantum oracles help identify counterfactuals better than classical ones.

problem Identifying unknown causal parameters in causal models.
method Using quantum oracles to query and identify all causal parameters and counterfactuals.
result Quantum oracles enable identification of all two-way joint counterfactuals and tighter bounds on higher-order counterfactuals.

Paper addresses online alignment of large language models under uncertain preference feedback.

problem Online alignment of large language models with misspecified preference feedback.
method Formulates an oracle-robust objective as a worst-case optimization problem for log-linear policies, and develops projected stochastic composite updates.
result Shows that the robust objective admits an exact closed-form decomposition and achieves O~(ε2)\widetilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-2}) oracle complexity.

Algorithm solves online binary classification and infinite games using ERM oracle.

problem Online learning and solving infinite games with computationally inefficient oracles.
method Proposes an algorithm relying solely on ERM oracle calls for online binary classification and nonparametric games.
result Achieves finite and sublinearly growing regret in various settings.

New study shows Gaussian samplers struggle with heavy-tailed targets, while stable samplers excel.

problem The difficulty of sampling from heavy-tailed distributions using Gaussian versus stable oracles.
method Comparison of Gaussian and stable oracles for proximal samplers.
result Gaussian samplers have a fundamental barrier for high-accuracy guarantees in heavy-tailed sampling, while stable samplers excel.

Study on tradeoffs between mistakes and ERM oracle calls in online and transductive learning.

problem Analyzing online and transductive learning with limited ERM and weak consistency oracle access.
method Proves lower bounds and upper bounds on mistakes and oracle calls, considering realizable and agnostic cases.
result Achieves optimal mistake bounds with weak consistency queries for certain concept classes.

Semi-supervised active clustering (SSAC) utilizes the knowledge of a domain expert to cluster data points by interactively making pairwise "same-cluster" queries. However, it is impractical to ask human oracles to answer every pairwise query. In this paper, we study the influence of allowing "not-sure" answers from a w…

2017-09-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Three new oracle-efficient algorithms for private synthetic data release.

problem Constructing private synthetic data that preserves statistical query answers.
method Oracle-efficient algorithms using optimization oracles for differential privacy.
result Better accuracy in large workload and high privacy regime compared to state-of-the-art.

Folded concave penalization methods have been shown to enjoy the strong oracle property for high-dimensional sparse estimation. However, a folded concave penalization problem usually has multiple local solutions and the oracle property is established only for one of the unknown local solutions. A challenging fundamenta…

2012-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider online learning in an adversarial, non-convex setting under the assumption that the learner has an access to an offline optimization oracle. In the general setting of prediction with expert advice, Hazan et al. (2016) established that in the optimization-oracle model, online learning requires exponentially …

2018-10-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Pairwise "same-cluster" queries are one of the most widely used forms of supervision in semi-supervised clustering. However, it is impractical to ask human oracles to answer every query correctly. In this paper, we study the influence of allowing "not-sure" answers from a weak oracle and propose an effective algorithm …

2017-11-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Study improves CTS's approximation regret for combinatorial bandits.

problem Improving CTS's performance on non-exact oracles.
method Develops a new O(log(T)/Δ)\mathcal{O}(\log(T)/Δ) upper bound for CTS under specific conditions.
result First O(log(T)/Δ)\mathcal{O}(\log(T)/Δ) approximation regret upper bound for CTS.

Improved Frank-Wolfe algorithm for constrained convex optimization with nearest extreme point oracle.

problem Constrained smooth convex minimization with limited linear optimization oracle access.
method Frank-Wolfe algorithm with nearest extreme point oracle.
result Improved complexity bounds for specific feasible sets, including linear convergence for 0ext10 ext{--}1 polytopes.

New RLHF framework handles general preference oracles without reward functions.

problem Handling general preference oracles without assuming a reward function.
method Developed a minimax game between two LLMs for RLHF under a general preference oracle, focusing on KL-regularized preference.
result Proposed algorithms for efficient offline and online RLHF learning.

Study on gradient complexity of private optimization with private oracles.

problem Analyzing the efficiency of differentially private optimization algorithms.
method Lower bounds on the number of first-order oracle queries for private optimization.
result Lower bounds on the number of queries for private optimization algorithms, showing a dimension-dependent runtime penalty.

Study on costs of manipulating AMM-based price oracles.

problem Cost of manipulation in AMM-based on-chain price oracles.
method Analyzes the robustness of AMM-based oracles to strategic manipulation, considering different aggregation methods and market conditions.
result Manipulation costs depend on the total quote depth and can be minimized by optimal liquidity weights.

CJE calibrates cheap LLM judges against an oracle, achieving high accuracy at a fraction of the cost.

problem Inexpensive LLM judges can produce biased rankings, leading to unreliable outcomes.
method CJE uses a small oracle to calibrate cheap scores, then evaluates at scale with valid uncertainty.
result CJE achieves 99% pairwise ranking accuracy at 14x lower cost compared to a 16x oracle/judge cost ratio.

Oracle inequality for sparse neural nets adapts to unknown structure.

problem Sparse deep neural nets in nonparametric regression.
method Gibbs posterior distribution with Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithms and mixture of uniform priors.
result Oracle inequality showing adaptation to unknown regularity and structure, achieving minimax-optimal rate of convergence.

We give nearly matching upper and lower bounds on the oracle complexity of finding εε-stationary points (F(x)ε\| \nabla F(x) \| \leqε) in stochastic convex optimization. We jointly analyze the oracle complexity in both the local stochastic oracle model and the global oracle (or, statistical learning) model. This allows u…

2019-02-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Oracle-efficient algorithms for online learning with smoothed and hint-adversaries.

problem Online learning with beyond worst-case adversaries.
method Oracle-efficient algorithms for two settings: smoothed analysis and KK-hint transductive learning.
result Oracle-efficient regret bounds for learning real-valued and binary-valued functions.

SoQal uses selective oracle questioning to improve active learning of cardiac signals.

problem Active learning of cardiac signals is challenging due to limited labelled data and high annotation costs.
method Proposes a framework combining selective oracle questioning and Bayesian active learning by consistency.
result SoQal outperforms baseline methods in active learning of cardiac signals, even with noisy oracles.

RPI combines imitation and reinforcement learning to improve policies efficiently.

problem High sample complexity in reinforcement learning.
method Active interleaving between imitation and reinforcement learning, using oracle queries for exploration.
result RPI outperforms existing methods across various domains.

We develop theory for using heuristics to solve computationally hard problems in differential privacy. Heuristic approaches have enjoyed tremendous success in machine learning, for which performance can be empirically evaluated. However, privacy guarantees cannot be evaluated empirically, and must be proven --- without…

2018-11-19abs ↗pdf ↗